400 ppm-ko langa hautsi da: CO2-kontzentrazioaren igoeraren ondorio fisiko eta sozialak

6 p.

The Determinants of Energy Efficiency Investments in the U.S.

31 p.

Alternativas técnico produtivas para o aproveitamento do gás natural da camada pré-sal

As reservas brasileiras de petróleo e gás natural apresentarão um significativo crescimento a partir do desenvolvimento das reservas da camada do pré-sal. Segundo estimativas elaboradas pela EPE e pela EIA, nos próximos vinte anos, haverá um quadro de grande oferta de gás natural no país, com a oferta excedendo a demanda. Como o segmento de transporte do gás natural tem grande importância na formação do custo desse energético, uma tecnologia de transporte menos onerosa irá proporcionar um cenário mais vantajoso para a entrada do gás no mercado. A presente dissertação analisa duas tecnologias disponíveis para escoamento do gás natural da camada pré-sal gasoduto submarino e gás natural liquefeito embarcado e as possibilidades de utilização no mercado interno ou para ser exportado. De acordo com dados da Petrobras, foram utilizadas três rotas para escoar o gás do pré-sal. A metodologia Valor Presente Líquido (VPL) foi utilizada para analisar qual dos investimentos em transporte é mais viável economicamente. Os resultados mostraram que de acordo com as perspectivas de produção do gás natural no horizonte de tempo analisado as duas tecnologias serão viáveis, com o transporte por gasodutos a alternativa mais viável economicamente.

Economics and management strategies for restocking sandfish in Vietnam

This paper assesses the costs and benefits of a proposed project for restocking sandfish (Holothuria scabra) in Khanh Hoa Province, Vietnam. It identifies the key stakeholders, institutional framework, management and financing required for its implementation. The recommended management strategy includes a 50 percent harvest at optimum size. Limiting the number of boats fishing an area, possibly through licensing, can control the number of sandfish removed. The easiest way to prevent harvesting of undersized sandfish is to control the size of processed sandfish from processors. The potential benefits of restocking are shown by the rapid changes in selected indicators, particularly the net present value, the internal rate of return, and the benefit-cost ratio. Probability analysis is used to estimate the uncertainties in the project calculations. Based on a conservative estimate, the restocking of sandfish is expected to be profitable, although cost-benefit analyses are sensitive to the survival of restocked sandfish and their progeny, and the number of boats fishing for sandfish in the release area.

Simulated Economic Impact of TED Regulations on Selected Vessels in the Texas Shrimp Fishery

Shrimp fishermen trawling in the Gulf of Mexico and south Atlantic inadvertently capture and kill sea turtles which are classified as endangered species. Recent legislation requires the use of a Turtle Excluder Device(TED) which, when in place in the shrimp trawl, reduces sea turtle mortality. The impact of the TED on shrimp production is not known. This intermediate analysis of the TED regulations using an annual firm level simulation model indicated that the average Texas shrimp vessel had a low probability of being an economic success before regulations were enacted. An assumption that the TED regulations resulted in decreased production aggravated this condition and the change in Ending Net Worth and Net Present Value of Ending Net Worth before and after a TED was placed in the net was significant at the 5 percent level. However, the difference in the Internal Rate of Return for the TED and non-TED simulations was not significant unless the TED caused a substantial change in catch. This analysis did not allow for interactions between the fishermen in the shrimp industry, an assumption which could significantly alter the impact of TED use on the catch and earnings of the individual shrimp vessel.

Mudança no Critério de Contabilização de Instrumentos Financeiros pelo IASB: estudo de evento sobre os títulos soberanos da Grécia,

A alteração feita pelo IASB em 2008 na classificação dos instrumentos financeiros para reduzir as perdas bancárias com a crise do subprime e de títulos soberanos dos países-membros da União Europeia, após um pedido protocolado pela Comissão da União Europeia, motivou esta pesquisa. A referida alteração ensejou a mudança do critério de avaliação, que passou de valor justo para valor amortizado, para os instrumentos reclassificados, muito embora alguns bancos não tenham aderido à reclassificação, mantendo a orientação original que determinava a avaliação pelo valor justo. Através de Estudo de Evento testou-se a Hipótese de Eficiência de Mercado - HEM, analisando 33 instituições bancárias detentoras de títulos soberanos gregos. Embora a alteração tenha colaborado para que essas instituições bancárias protelassem essas perdas no resultado, não afetou os fluxos de caixa futuros. E como evidenciam os resultados da pesquisa, o mercado foi equitativo com essas instituições, penalizando-as com base no grau de exposição aos títulos gregos, independentemente do critério utilizado, corroborando a HEM: o valor de um ativo é o valor presente dos fluxos de caixa futuros e não dos lucros. Uma consequência importante foi que os governos, através da terceira revisão do Acordo de Capital de Basileia, adotaram medidas para regulamentar com mais rigor as instituições financeiras, no intuito que essas instituições, futuramente, possam suportar melhor os efeitos de uma crise financeira.

Economic feasibility of composite fish culture in leased-in village tanks of Kanyakumari district: an invesment analysis

Kanyakumari district belonging to the high rainfall zone has resource advantages for composite fish culture in the leased-in village tanks. There are more than 400 fish farmers operating in leased-in tanks following composite fish culture under the FFDA programme. To estimate the economic feasibility and financial viability of the enterprise, the present study was taken up. 38 fish farmers selected from the district provided the necessary information like capital investment, costs and return and constraints. The data collected were analysed and a farm nearest to the average farm situation was taken as the representative farm. Investment criteria like PayBack Period (PBP), Simple Rate of Returns (SRR), Net Present Value (NPV) and Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR) were estimated taking into account a period of 10 years, the period for which the village tanks are leased-out to fish farmers under the FFDA programme. The analysis indicated the profitability of composite fish culture in village tanks in the district and the results are discussed with recommendations.

生物质气化与废弃物焚烧联合发电的技术经济分析

介绍了生物质气化与废弃物焚烧联合发电技术项目，确定了该项目经济效益的评价指标，定量计算了项目的投资回收期、净现值和内部收益率。同时还对燃料费用、上网电价和固定资产变化引起的敏感性进行分析。结果表明，该联合发电技术的动态投资回收期为9.05a，净现值为2770万元，内部收益率为15.82％，三个经济指标均符合行业标准。从经济角度看是完全可行的。

油气勘探风险评价与决策技术研究

PetroChina and other national petroleum incorporations need rigorous procedures and practical methods in risk evaluation and exploration decision at home and abroad to safeguard their international exploration practice in exploration licence bidding, finding appropriate ratio of risk sharing with partners, as well as avoiding high risk projects and other key exploration activities. However, due to historical reasons, we are only at the beginning of a full study and methodology development in exploration risk evaluation and decision. No rigorous procedure and practical methods are available in our exercises of international exploration. Completely adopting foreign procedure, methods and tools by our national incorporations are not practical because of the differences of the current economic and management systems in China. The objective of this study is to establish a risk evaluation and decision system with independent intellectual property right in oil and gas exploration so that a smooth transition from our current practice into international norm can take place. The system developed in this dissertation includes the following four components: 1. A set of quantitative criteria for risk evaluation is derived on the basis of an anatomy of the parameters from thirty calibration regions national wide as well as the characteristics and the geological factors controlling oil and gas occurrence in the major petroleum-bearing basins in China, which provides the technical support for the risk quantification in oil and gas exploration. 2. Through analysis of existing methodology, procedure and methods of exploration risk evaluation considering spatial information are proposed. The method, utilizing Mahalanobis Distance (MD) and fuzzy logic for data and information integration, provides probabilistic models on the basis of MD and fuzzy logic classification criteria, thus quantifying the exploration risk using Bayesian theory. A projection of the geological risk into spatial domain provides a probability map of oil and gas occurrence in the area under study. The application of this method to the Nanpu Sag shows that this method not only correctly predicted the oil and gas occurrence in the areas where Beibu and Laoyemiao oil fields are found in the northwest of the onshore area, but also predicted Laopu south, Nanpu south and Hatuo potential areas in the offshore part where exploration maturity was very low. The prediction of the potential areas are subsequently confirmed by 17 exploration wells in the offshore area with 81% success, indicating this method is very effective for exploration risk visualization and reduction. 3. On the basis of “Methods and parameters of economic evaluation for petroleum exploration and development projects in China”, a ”pyramid” method for sensitivity analysis was developed, which meets not only the need for exploration target evaluation and exploration decision at home, but also allows a transition from our current practice to international norm in exploration decision. This provides the foundation for the development of a software product “Exploration economic evaluation and decision system of PetroChina” (EDSys). 4. To solve problem in methodology of exploration decision, effort was made on the method of project portfolio management. A drilling decision method was developed employing the concept of geologically risked net present value. This method overcame the dilemma of handling simultaneously both geological risk and portfolio uncertainty, thus casting light into the application of modern portfolio theory to the evaluation of high risk petroleum exploration projects.

克拉2异常高压气藏地质特征及开发技术研究

Kela-2 gas field in Tarim Basin is the main supply source for West-to-East Pipeline project, also the largest abnormally-pressured gas field discovered in China currently. The geological characterization, fine geological modeling and field development plan are all the world-class difficult problems. This work includes an integrated geological and gas reservoir engineering study using advanced technology and approaches, the scientific development plan of Kela-2 gas field as well as the optimizations of the drilling, production and surface schemes. Then, it's expected that the Kela-2 gas field can be developed high-efficiently.Kuche depression is one part of the thrust belt of the South Tianshan Mountains, Kela-2 field is located at the Kelasu structural zone in the north of Kuche depression. The field territory is heavily rugged with deeply cut gullies, complex geological underground structure, variable rock types, thrust structure development. Therefore, considerable efforts have been made to develop an integrated technique to acquire, process and interpret the seismic data in complicated mountain region. Consequently a set of seismic-related techniques in the complicated mountain region has been developed and successfully utilized to interpret the structure of Kela-2 gas field.The main reservoir depositional system of Kela 2 gas field is a platform - fan delta - braided river system. The reservoir rocks are medium-fine and extremely fine grained sandstones with high structure maturity and low composition maturity. The pore system structure is featured by medium-small pore, medium-fine throat and medium-low assortment. The reservoir of Kela-2 gas field is characteristic of medium porosity and medium permeability. The pay zone is very thick and its lateral distribution is stable with a good connection of sand body. The overpressure is caused mainly by the strongly tectonic squash activities, and other factors including the later rapid raise and compartment of the high-pressure fluid, the injection of high-pressure fluid into the reservoir.Based on the deliverability tests available, the average binomial deliverability equation is provided applicable for the overall field. The experimental results of rock stress-sensitive tests are employed to analyze the change trend of petrophysical properties against net confining stress, and establish the stress-based average deliverability equation. The results demonstrate the effect of rock deformation on the deliverability is limited to less than 5% in the early period of Kela-2 gas field, indicating the insignificant effect on deliverability of rock deformation.In terms of the well pattern comparisons and development planning optimizations, it is recommended that the producers should be located almost linearly along the structural axis. A total of 9 producers have a stable gas supply volume of 10.76 BCMPY for 17 years. For Kela-2 gas field the total construction investment is estimated at ￥7,697,690,000 RMB with the internal earning rate of 25.02% after taxation, the net present value of ￥7,420,160,000 RMB and the payback period of 5.66 years. The high profits of this field development project are much satisfactory.

Valuing drinking water provision as an ecosystem service in the neuse river basin

The valuation of ecosystem services such as drinking water provision is of growing national and international interest. The cost of drinking water provision is directly linked to the quality of its raw water input, which is itself affected by upstream land use patterns. This analysis employs the benefit transfer method to quantify the economic benefits of water quality improvements for drinking water production in the Neuse River Basin in North Carolina. Two benefit transfer approaches, value transfer and function transfer, are implemented by combining the results of four previously published studies with data collected from eight Neuse Basin water treatment plants. The mean net present value of the cost reduction estimates for the entire Neuse Basin ranged from $2.7 million to $16.6 million for a 30% improvement in water quality over a 30-year period. The value-transfer approach tended to produce larger expected benefits than the function-transfer approach, but both approaches produced similar results despite the differences in their methodologies, time frames, study sites, and assumptions. © 2010 ASCE.

Asset pricing in created markets

We investigate the applicability of the present-value asset pricing model to fishing quota markets by applying instrumental variable panel data estimation techniques to 15 years of market transactions from New Zealand's individual transferable quota (ITQ) market. In addition to the influence of current fishing rents, we explore the effect of market interest rates, risk, and expected changes in future rents on quota asset prices. The results indicate that quota asset prices are positively related to declines in interest rates, lower levels of risk, expected increases in future fish prices, and expected cost reductions from rationalization under the quota system. © 2007 American Agricultural Economics Association.

Discounting the distant future: How much do uncertain rates increase valuations?

We demonstrate that when the future path of the discount rate is uncertain and highly correlated, the distant future should be discounted at significantly lower rates than suggested by the current rate. We then use two centuries of US interest rate data to quantify this effect. Using both random walk and mean-reverting models, we compute the "certainty-equivalent rate" that summarizes the effect of uncertainty and measures the appropriate forward rate of discount in the future. Under the random walk model we find that the certainty-equivalent rate falls continuously from 4% to 2% after 100 years, 1% after 200 years, and 0.5% after 300 years. At horizons of 400 years, the discounted value increases by a factor of over 40,000 relative to conventional discounting. Applied to climate change mitigation, we find that incorporating discount rate uncertainty almost doubles the expected present value of mitigation benefits. © 2003 Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.

Changes in pH at the exterior surface of plankton with ocean acidification

Anthropogenically released CO2 is dissolving in the ocean, causing a decrease in bulk-seawater pH (ocean acidification). Projections indicate that the pH will drop 0.3 units from its present value by 2100 (ref. 1). However, it is unclear how the growth of plankton is likely to respond. Using simulations we demonstrate how pH and carbonate chemistry at the exterior surface of marine organisms deviates increasingly from those of the bulk sea water as organism metabolic activity and size increases. These deviations will increase in the future as the buffering capacity of sea water decreases with decreased pH and as metabolic activity increases with raised seawater temperatures. We show that many marine plankton will experience pH conditions completely outside their recent historical range. However, ocean acidification is likely to have differing impacts on plankton physiology as taxon-specific differences in organism size, metabolic activity and growth rates during blooms result in very different microenvironments around the organism. This is an important consideration for future studies in ocean acidification as the carbonate chemistry experienced by most planktonic organisms will probably be considerably different from that measured in bulk-seawater samples. An understanding of these deviations will assist interpretation of the impacts of ocean acidification on plankton of different size and metabolic activity.

Empirical testing of genuine savings as an indicator of weak sustainability: a three-country analysis of long run trends

Genuine Savings has emerged as a widely-used indicator of sustainable development. In this paper, we use long-term data stretching back to 1870 to undertake empirical tests of the relationship between Genuine Savings (GS) and future well-being for three countries: Britain, the USA and Germany. Our tests are based on an underlying theoretical relationship between GS and changes in the present value of future consumption. Based on both single country and panel results, we find evidence supporting the existence of a cointegrating (long run equilibrium) relationship between GS and future well-being, and fail to reject the basic theoretical result on the relationship between these two macroeconomic variables. This provides some support for the GS measure of weak sustainability. We also show the effects of modelling shocks, such as World War Two and the Great Depression.