Prediction of dynamical, nonlinear, and unstable process behavior

Process scheduling techniques consider the current load situation to allocate computing resources. Those techniques make approximations such as the average of communication, processing, and memory access to improve the process scheduling, although processes may present different behaviors during their whole execution. They may start with high communication requirements and later just processing. By discovering how processes behave over time, we believe it is possible to improve the resource allocation. This has motivated this paper which adopts chaos theory concepts and nonlinear prediction techniques in order to model and predict process behavior. Results confirm the radial basis function technique which presents good predictions and also low processing demands show what is essential in a real distributed environment.

Finite temperature correction to the Thomas-Fermi approximation for a Bose-Einstein condensate: comparison between theory and experiment

We observe experimentally a deviation of the radius of a Bose-Einstein condensate from the standard Thomas-Fermi prediction, after free expansion, as a function of temperature. A modified Hartree-Fock model is used to explain the observations, mainly based on the influence of the thermal cloud on the condensate cloud.

A New Approach to the Prediction of Partition Coefficients in Water/Organic Interfaces

In the present work, a new approach for the determination of the partition coefficient in different interfaces based on the density function theory is proposed. Our results for log P(ow) considering a n-octanol/water interface for a large super cell for acetone -0.30 (-0.24) and methane 0.95 (0.78) are comparable with the experimental data given in parenthesis. We believe that these differences are mainly related to the absence of van der Walls interactions and the limited number of molecules considered in the super cell. The numerical deviations are smaller than that observed for interpolation based tools. As the proposed model is parameter free, it is not limited to the n-octanol/water interface.

Likelihood prediction for generalized linear mixed models under covariate uncertainty

This paper presents the techniques of likelihood prediction for the generalized linear mixed models. Methods of likelihood prediction is explained through a series of examples; from a classical one to more complicated ones. The examples show, in simple cases, that the likelihood prediction (LP) coincides with already known best frequentist practice such as the best linear unbiased predictor. The paper outlines a way to deal with the covariate uncertainty while producing predictive inference. Using a Poisson error-in-variable generalized linear model, it has been shown that in complicated cases LP produces better results than already know methods.

Terror Management Theory and Belief in an Afterlife

Research has shown that belief in an afterlife, a form of symbolic immortality, can alleviate the negative emotions associated with one’s mortality (Deschesne et. al, 2003). We found this aspect of TMT particularly interesting, but lacking any substantial research. Therefore, we set out to determine if belief in an afterlife could diminish the effects of mortality salience. As far as we know, our study is the first to use a pre-screening process to determine participants’ prior beliefs. One prediction might be that those who believe in an afterlife will be less affected by the effects of mortality salience.

Prediction of Soil Properties from the Concepts of Energy Transfer in Dynamic Penetration Tests

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Analytical attitude prediction of spin stabilized spacecrafts perturbed by magnetic residual torque

An analytical approach for spin-stabilized spacecraft attitude prediction is presented for the influence of the residual magnetic torques. Assuming an inclined dipole model for the Earth's magnetic field, an analytical averaging method is applied to obtain the mean residual torque every orbital period. The orbit mean anomaly is utilized to compute the average components of residual torque in the spacecraft body frame reference system. The theory is developed for time variations in the orbital elements, and non-circular orbits, giving rise to many curvature integrals. It is observed that the residual magnetic torque does not have component along the spin axis. The inclusion of this torque on the rotational motion differential equations of a spin stabilized spacecraft yields conditions to derive an analytical solution. The solution shows that residual torque does not affect the spin velocity magnitude, contributing only for the precession and the drift of the spin axis of the spacecraft. (c) 2005 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Relationship between global structural parameters and Enzyme Commission hierarchy: Implications for function prediction

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Prediction of R plus R-2 gravity for the deflection of a photon passing close to the Sun

The cross-section for the scattering of a photon by the Sun's gravitational field, treated as an external field, is computed in the framework of R + R-2 gravity. Using this result, we found that for a photon just grazing the Sun's surface the deflection is 1.75 which is exactly the same as that given by Einstein's theory. An explanation for this pseudo-paradox is provided.

Local dimension and finite time prediction in spatiotemporal chaotic systems

Predictability is related to the uncertainty in the outcome of future events during the evolution of the state of a system. The cluster weighted modeling (CWM) is interpreted as a tool to detect such an uncertainty and used it in spatially distributed systems. As such, the simple prediction algorithm in conjunction with the CWM forms a powerful set of methods to relate predictability and dimension.

Local dimension and finite time prediction in coupled map lattices

Forecasting, for obvious reasons, often become the most important goal to be achieved. For spatially extended systems (e.g. atmospheric system) where the local nonlinearities lead to the most unpredictable chaotic evolution, it is highly desirable to have a simple diagnostic tool to identify regions of predictable behaviour. In this paper, we discuss the use of the bred vector (BV) dimension, a recently introduced statistics, to identify the regimes where a finite time forecast is feasible. Using the tools from dynamical systems theory and Bayesian modelling, we show the finite time predictability in two-dimensional coupled map lattices in the regions of low BV dimension. © Indian Academy of Sciences.

Traffic flow breakdown prediction using feature reduction through Rough-Neuro fuzzy Networks

The prediction of the traffic behavior could help to make decision about the routing process, as well as enables gains on effectiveness and productivity on the physical distribution. This need motivated the search for technological improvements in the Routing performance in metropolitan areas. The purpose of this paper is to present computational evidences that Artificial Neural Network ANN could be use to predict the traffic behavior in a metropolitan area such So Paulo (around 16 million inhabitants). The proposed methodology involves the application of Rough-Fuzzy Sets to define inference morphology for insertion of the behavior of Dynamic Routing into a structured rule basis, without human expert aid. The dynamics of the traffic parameters are described through membership functions. Rough Sets Theory identifies the attributes that are important, and suggest Fuzzy relations to be inserted on a Rough Neuro Fuzzy Network (RNFN) type Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and type Radial Basis Function (RBF), in order to get an optimal surface response. To measure the performance of the proposed RNFN, the responses of the unreduced rule basis are compared with the reduced rule one. The results show that by making use of the Feature Reduction through RNFN, it is possible to reduce the need for human expert in the construction of the Fuzzy inference mechanism in such flow process like traffic breakdown. © 2011 IEEE.

Spin stabilized satellite's attitude analytical prediction

An analytical approach for spin stabilized attitude propagation is presented, considering the coupled effect of the aerodynamic torque and the gravity gradient torque. A spherical coordination system fixed in the satellite is used to locate the satellite spin axis in relation to the terrestrial equatorial system. The spin axis direction is specified by its right ascension and the declination angles and the equation of motion are described by these two angles and the magnitude of the spin velocity. An analytical averaging method is applied to obtain the mean torques over an orbital period. To compute the average components of both aerodynamic torque and the gravity gradient torque in the satellite body frame reference system, an average time in the fast varying orbit element, the mean anomaly, is utilized. Afterwards, the inclusion of such torques on the rotational motion differential equations of spin stabilized satellites yields conditions to derive an analytical solution. The pointing deviation evolution, that is, the deviation between the actual spin axis and the computed spin axis, is also availed. In order to validate the analytical approach, the theory developed has been applied for spin stabilized Brazilian satellite SCD1, which are quite appropriated for verification and comparison of the data generated and processed by the Satellite Control Center of the Brazil National Research Institute (INPE). Numerical simulations performed with data of Brazilian Satellite SCD1 show the period that the analytical solution can be used to the attitude propagation, within the dispersion range of the attitude determination system performance of Satellite Control Center of the Brazilian Research Institute.

Analytical prediction of the spin stabilized satellite's attitude using the solar radiation torque

The aim of this paper is to present an analytical solution for the spin motion equations of spin-stabilized satellite considering only the influence of solar radiation torque. The theory uses a cylindrical satellite on a circular orbit and considers that the satellite is always illuminated. The average components of this torque were determined over an orbital period. These components are substituted in the spin motion equations in order to get an analytical solution for the right ascension and declination of the satellite spin axis. The time evolution for the pointing deviation of the spin axis was also analyzed. These solutions were numerically implemented and compared with real data of the Brazilian Satellite of Data Collection - SCD1 an SCD2. The results show that the theory has consistency and can be applied to predict the spin motion of spin-stabilized artificial satellites.

Predicting Problematic Approach Behavior Toward Politicians: Exploring the Potential Contributions of Control Theory

The potential merits of Carver and Scheier's (1981) control theory in the prediction of targeted violence are reviewed and several novel indicators of risk that are consistent with this theory are suggested for study. It was hypothesized that: (a) similarity between inappropriate contact with politicians and extremist group literature and writings; (b) the temporal proximity to violent or otherwise criminal actions and notable anniversaries of such groups; (c) detailed specification of a plan to engage in problematic approach behavior, and; (d) self-focus, will be significant predictors of problematic approach behavior. A sample of 506 individuals who engaged in threatening or otherwise inappropriate contact toward members of the United States Congress was drawn from the case files of the United States Capitol Police. Results of the present research indicated that detailed specification of a plan to engage in problematic approach behavior was strongly predictive of actually engaging in problematic approach. Furthermore, high self-focus was significantly related to problematic approach between-persons, although within-person, higher-than-average self-focus showed no such relation. Neither temporal proximity to notable acts of extremist violence nor similarity to known extremist group writings was found to be associated with problematic approach in this sample.