Bayesian experimental design for models with intractable likelihoods

In this paper we present a methodology for designing experiments for efficiently estimating the parameters of models with computationally intractable likelihoods. The approach combines a commonly used methodology for robust experimental design, based on Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling, with approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) to ensure that no likelihood evaluations are required. The utility function considered for precise parameter estimation is based upon the precision of the ABC posterior distribution, which we form efficiently via the ABC rejection algorithm based on pre-computed model simulations. Our focus is on stochastic models and, in particular, we investigate the methodology for Markov process models of epidemics and macroparasite population evolution. The macroparasite example involves a multivariate process and we assess the loss of information from not observing all variables.

Preliminary Design and Performance Estimation of Radial Inflow Turbines: An Automated Approach

A comprehensive one-dimensional meanline design approach for radial inflow turbines is described in the present work. An original code was developed in Python that takes a novel approach to the automatic selection of feasible machines based on pre-defined performance or geometry characteristics for a given application. It comprises a brute-force search algorithm that traverses the entire search space based on key non-dimensional parameters and rotational speed. In this study, an in-depth analysis and subsequent implementation of relevant loss models as well as selection criteria for radial inflow turbines is addressed. Comparison with previously published designs, as well as other available codes, showed good agreement. Sample (real and theoretical) test cases were trialed and results showed good agreement when compared to other available codes. The presented approach was found to be valid and the model was found to be a useful tool with regards to the preliminary design and performance estimation of radial inflow turbines, enabling its integration with other thermodynamic cycle analysis and three-dimensional blade design codes.

Combinatorial design of key distribution mechanisms for wireless sensor networks

Secure communications in wireless sensor networks operating under adversarial conditions require providing pairwise (symmetric) keys to sensor nodes. In large scale deployment scenarios, there is no prior knowledge of post deployment network configuration since nodes may be randomly scattered over a hostile territory. Thus, shared keys must be distributed before deployment to provide each node a key-chain. For large sensor networks it is infeasible to store a unique key for all other nodes in the key-chain of a sensor node. Consequently, for secure communication either two nodes have a key in common in their key-chains and they have a wireless link between them, or there is a path, called key-path, among these two nodes where each pair of neighboring nodes on this path have a key in common. Length of the key-path is the key factor for efficiency of the design. This paper presents novel deterministic and hybrid approaches based on Combinatorial Design for deciding how many and which keys to assign to each key-chain before the sensor network deployment. In particular, Balanced Incomplete Block Designs (BIBD) and Generalized Quadrangles (GQ) are mapped to obtain efficient key distribution schemes. Performance and security properties of the proposed schemes are studied both analytically and computationally. Comparison to related work shows that the combinatorial approach produces better connectivity with smaller key-chain sizes.

Communicating in the pre-hospital emergency environment

Aim. To develop and evaluate the implementation of a communication board for paramedics to use with patients as an augmentative or alternative communication tool to address communication needs of patients in the pre-hospital setting. Method. A double-sided A4-size communication board was designed specifically for use in the pre-hospital setting by the Queensland Ambulance Service and Disability and Community Care Services. One side of the board contains expressive messages that could be used by both the patient and paramedic. The other side contains messages to support patients’ understanding and interaction tips for the paramedic. The communication board was made available in every ambulance and patient transport vehicle in the Brisbane Region. Results. A total of 878 paramedics completed a survey that gauged which patient groups they might use the communication board with. The two most common groups were patients from culturally and linguistically diverse backgrounds and children. Staff reported feeling confident in using the board, and 72% of interviewed paramedics agreed that the communication board was useful for aiding communication with patients. Feedback from paramedics suggests that the board is simple to use, reduces patient frustration and improves communication. Conclusion. These results suggest that a communication board can be applied in the pre-hospital setting to support communication success with patients. What is known about the topic? It is imperative that communication between patient and paramedic is clear and effective. Research has shown that communication boards have been effective with people with temporary or permanent communication difficulties. What does this paper add? This is the first paper outlining the development and use of a communication board by paramedics in the pre-hospital setting in Australia. The paper details the design of the communication board for the unique pre-hospital environment. The paper provides some preliminary data on the use of the communication board with certain patient groups and its effectiveness as an alternative communication tool. What are the implications for practitioners? The findings support the use of the tool as a viable option in supporting the communication between paramedics and a range of patients. It is not suggested that this communication board will meet the complete communication needs of any individual in this environment, but it is hoped that the board’s presence within the Queensland Ambulance Service may result in paramedics introducing the board on occasions where communication with a patient is challenging.

Explaining Pathe's global dominance in the pre-Hollywood film industry

For almost a decade before Hollywood existed, French firm Pathe towered over the early film industry with estimates of its share of all films sold around the world varying between 50-70%. This paper analyses Pathe’s rise to market leadership by applying a theoretical framework drawn from the business literature on causes of industry dominance, that provides insights into how firms acquire and maintain market dominance. This paper uses evidence presented by film historians to argue that Pathe “fits” the expected theoretical model of the dominant firm because it had a marketing orientation, used an effective quality- based competitive strategy and possessed the six critical strategic marketing capabilities that business research shows enable the best performing firms to consistently outperform rivals.

Towards a capabilities database to inform inclusive design : Experimental investigation of effective survey-based predictors of human-product interaction

A key issue in the field of inclusive design is the ability to provide designers with an understanding of people's range of capabilities. Since it is not feasible to assess product interactions with a large sample, this paper assesses a range of proxy measures of design-relevant capabilities. It describes a study that was conducted to identify which measures provide the best prediction of people's abilities to use a range of products. A detailed investigation with 100 respondents aged 50-80 years was undertaken to examine how they manage typical household products. Predictor variables included self-report and performance measures across a variety of capabilities (vision, hearing, dexterity and cognitive function), component activities used in product interactions (e.g. using a remote control, touch screen) and psychological characteristics (e.g. self-efficacy, confidence with using electronic devices). Results showed, as expected, a higher prevalence of visual, hearing, dexterity, cognitive and product interaction difficulties in the 65-80 age group. Regression analyses showed that, in addition to age, performance measures of vision (acuity, contrast sensitivity) and hearing (hearing threshold) and self-report and performance measures of component activities are strong predictors of successful product interactions. These findings will guide the choice of measures to be used in a subsequent national survey of design-relevant capabilities, which will lead to the creation of a capability database. This will be converted into a tool for designers to understand the implications of their design decisions, so that they can design products in a more inclusive way.

When Can Oral Health Education Begin? Relative effectiveness of three oral health education strategies starting pre-partum

Objective: To test the impact of oral health education provided to pregnant mothers on subsequent practices within the infant’s family. Research design: A quasi-experimental intervention trial comparing the effectiveness of ‘usual care’ to one, or both, of two oral health education resources: a ‘sample bag’ of information and oral health care products; and/or a nine-minute “Healthy Teeth for Life” video on postnatal oral health issues. Participants: Women attending the midwife clinic at approximately 30 weeks gestation were recruited (n=611) in a public hospital providing free maternity services. Results and Conclusions: Four months after the birth of their infant, relative to the usual care condition, each of the oral health education interventions had independent or combined positive impacts on mother’s knowledge of oral health practices. However young, single, health care card-holder or unemployed mothers were less likely to apply healthy behaviours or to improve knowledge of healthy choices, as a result of these interventions. The video intervention provided the strongest and most consistent positive impact on mothers’ general and infant oral health knowledge. While mothers indicated that the later stage of pregnancy was a good time to receive oral health education, many suggested that this should also be provided after birth at a time when teeth were a priority issue, such as when “baby teeth” start to erupt.

Teaching design thinking : Expanding horizons in design education

The term design thinking is increasingly used to mean the human-centred 'open' problem solving process decision makers use to solve real world 'wicked' problems. Claims have been made that design thinking in this sense can radically improve not only product innovation but also decision making in other fields, such as management, public health, and organizations in general. Many design and management schools in North America and elsewhere now include course offerings in design thinking though little is known about how successful these are with students. The lack of such courses in Australia presents an opportunity to design a curriculum for design thinking, employing design thinking's own practices. This paper describes the development of a design thinking course at Swinburne University taught simultaneously in Melbourne and Hong Kong. Following a pilot of the course in Semester 1, 2011 with 90 enrolled students across the two countries, we describe lessons learned to date and future course considerations as it is being taught in its second iteration.

Design of a professional development programme for palliative care nurses (Part Two)

Yates et al (1996) provided a review of the literature on educational approaches to improving psychosocial care of terminally ill patients and their families and suggested that there was an urgent need for innovation in this area. A programme of professional development currently being offered to 181 palliative care nurses in Queensland, Australia, was also described. This paper presents research in progress evaluating this programme which involves use of a quasi-experimental pre-post test design. It also includes process and outcome measures to assess effectiveness in improving the participant's ability to provide psychosocial care to patients and families. Research examining the effectiveness of various educational programmes on care of the dying has offered equivocal results (Yates et al 1996). Degner and Gow (1988a) noted that the inconsistencies found in research into death education result from inadequate study designs, variations in the conceptualisation and measurement of the outcomes of the programmes and flaws in data analysis. Such studies have often lacked a theoretical basis, few have employed well-controlled experimental designs, and the programme outcomes have generally been limited to the participant's 'death anxiety', or other death attitudes which have been variously defined and measured. Whilst Degner and Gow (1988b) have reported that undergraduate nursing students who participated in a care of the dying educational programme demonstrated more 'approach caring' behaviours than a control group, the impact of education programmes on patient care has rarely been examined. Failure to link education to nursing practice and subsequent clinical outcomes has, however, been seen as a major limitation of nursing knowledge in this area (Degner et al 1991). This paper describes an approach to researching the effectiveness of professional development programmes for palliative care nurses.

Engineering based problem solving in the middle school : design and construction with simple machines

Incorporating engineering concepts into middle school curriculum is seen as an effective way to improve students’ problem-solving skills. A selection of findings is reported from a science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM)-based unit in which students in the second year (grade 8) of a three-year longitudinal study explored engineering concepts and principles pertaining to the functioning of simple machines. The culminating activity, the focus of this paper, required the students to design, construct, test, and evaluate a trebuchet catapult. We consider findings from one of the schools, a co-educational school, where we traced the design process developments of four student groups from two classes. The students’ descriptions and explanations of the simple machines used in their catapult design are examined, together with how they rated various aspects of their engineering designs. Included in the findings are students’ understanding of how their simple machines were simulated by the resources supplied and how the machines interacted in forming a complex machine. An ability to link physical materials with abstract concepts and an awareness of design constraints on their constructions were apparent, although a desire to create a ‘‘perfect’’ catapult despite limitations in the physical materials rather than a prototype for testing concepts was evident. Feedback from teacher interviews added further insights into the students’ developments as well as the teachers’ professional learning. An evolving framework for introducing engineering education in the pre-secondary years is proposed.

Nonlinear pre-fire and post-fire analysis of steel frames

A numerical procedure based on the plastic hinge concept for study of the structural behaviour of steel framed structures exposed to fire is described. Most previous research on fire analysis considered the structural performance due to rising temperature. When strain reversal occurs during the cooling phase, the stress–strain curve is different. The plastic deformation is incorporated into the stress–strain curve to model the strain reversal effect in which unloading under elastic behaviour is allowed. This unloading response is traced by the incremental–iterative Newton–Raphson method. The mechanical properties of the steel member in the present fire analysis follows both Eurocode 3 Part 1.2 and BS5950 Part 8, which implicitly allow for thermal creep deformation. This paper presents an efficient fire analysis procedure for predicting thermal and cooling effects on an isolated element and a multi-storey frame. Several numerical and experimental examples related to structural behaviour in cooling phase are studied and compared with results obtained by other researchers. The proposed method is effective in the fire safety design and analysis of a building in a real fire scenario. The scope of investigation is of great significance since a large number of rescuers would normally enter a fire site as soon as the fire is extinguished and during the cooling phase, so a structural collapse can be catastrophic.

Dancing to too many tunes : contemporary course design in teacher education

Contemporary course designers in schools and faculties of Education are finding themselves dancing to many tunes, arguably too many tunes, in order to have their initial teacher education courses accredited by external agencies whilst satisfying internal approval processes and, critically, maintaining the philosophical integrity of their programs and their institutional watermarks. The “tunes” here are the agendas driven by and the demands made by distinct independent agencies. The external agencies influencing Education include: TEQSA (Tertiary Education Quality and Standards Agency) which will assure alignment to the AQF (Australian Qualifications Framework); professional bodies such as AITSL (Australian Institute for Teaching and School Leadership) which now accredits all pre-service teacher Education courses across Australia and assures alignment with the Australian Professional Standards for Teachers; and the state and territory regulatory authorities that have an impact within a specific jurisdiction, for example, the Queensland College of Teachers (QCT) and the Teacher Registration Board of Western Australia (TRBWA). This paper – whose findings have been arrived at through a year-long OLT National Teaching Fellowship - will outline the complex and competing agendas currently at play and focus on the disjuncture evident in the fundamental defining of who is a “graduate.” It will also attempt to identify where there are synergies between the complex demands being made. It will argue that there are too many “tunes” and the task of finding a balance between compliance and delivering effective initial teacher education may not be possible because of the cacophony of their conflicting demands.

Part 1 MOO methods for multidisciplinary design using parallel evolutionary algorithms, game theory and hierarchical topology. (Part 1.) Theoretical aspects

Two lecture notes describe recent developments of evolutionary multi objective optimization (MO) techniques in detail and their advantages and drawbacks compared to traditional deterministic optimisers. The role of Game Strategies (GS), such as Pareto, Nash or Stackelberg games as companions or pre-conditioners of Multi objective Optimizers is presented and discussed on simple mathematical functions in Part I , as well as their implementations on simple aeronautical model optimisation problems on the computer using a friendly design framework in Part II. Real life (robust) design applications dealing with UAVs systems or Civil Aircraft and using the EAs and Game Strategies combined material of Part I & Part II are solved and discussed in Part III providing the designer new compromised solutions useful to digital aircraft design and manufacturing. Many details related to Lectures notes Part I, Part II and Part III can be found by the reader in [68].

Design Minds Refresh Toolkit

The Design Minds Refresh Toolkit was one of six K7-12 secondary school design toolkits commissioned by the State Library of Queensland (SLQ) Asia Pacific Design Library (APDL), to facilitate the delivery of the Stage 1 launch of its Design Minds online platform (www.designminds.org.au) partnership initiative with Queensland Government Arts Queensland and the Smithsonian Cooper-Hewitt National Design Museum, on June 29, 2012. Design Minds toolkits are practical guides, underpinned by a combination of one to three of the Design Minds model phases of ‘Inquire’, ‘Ideate’ and ‘Implement’ (supported by at each stage with structured reflection), to enhance existing school curriculum and empower students with real life design exercises, within the classroom environment. Toolkits directly identify links to Naplan, National Curriculum, C2C and Professional Standards benchmarks, as well as the student capabilities of successful and creative 21st century citizens they seek to engender through design thinking. Inspired by ideas from a design project for second year Interior Design students at QUT School of Design, this toolkit explores, through five distinct exercises, different design tools and ways to approach the future design of environments (bathrooms) to facilitate the daily washing ritual, while addressing diverse and changing social, cultural, technological and environmental challenges. The Design Minds Refresh Toolkit particularly aims to promote ‘Lateral Thinking’ attitudes and empathy as an approach to create unusual and sustainable solutions to future problems that may affect our daily behavioural routines, and the spaces that facilitate them. More generally, it aims to facilitate awareness in young people, of the role of design in society and the value of design thinking skills in generating strategies to solve basic to complex systemic challenges, as well as to inspire post-secondary pathways and idea generation for education. The toolkit encourages students and teachers to develop sketching, making, communication, presentation and collaboration skills to improve their design process, as well as explore further inquiry (background research) to enhance the ideation exercises. Exercise 1 focuses on the ‘Inquire’ and ‘Ideate’ phases, Exercise 2 and 3 build on ideation skills, and Exercise 4 and 5 concentrate on the ‘Implement’ phase. Depending on the intensity of the focus, the unit of work could be developed over a 4-5 week program (approximately 10-12 x 60 minute lessons/workshops) or as smaller workshops treated as discrete learning experiences. The toolkit is available for public download from http://designminds.org.au/refresh/ on the Design Minds website. Exercise 2 (Other People’s Shoes) and Exercise 3 (The Future Bathroom) of the toolkit were used as content for the inaugural Design Minds Professional Development Workshop on June 28, 2012 to pre-launch the website to Queensland teachers.

Physical activity in overweight and non-overweight pre-school children

OBJECTIVE To compare the physical activity levels of overweight and non overweight 3- to 5-y-old children while attending preschool. A secondary aim was to evaluate weight-related differences in hypothesized parental determinants of child physical activity behavior. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. SUBJECTS A total of 245, 3- to 5-y-olds (127 girls, 118 boys) and their parent(s) (242 mothers, 173 fathers) recruited from nine preschools. Overweight status determined using the age- and sex-specific 85th percentile for body mass index (BMI) from CDC Growth Charts. MEASUREMENTS Physical activity during the preschool day was assessed on multiple days via two independent objective measuresFdirect observation using the observation system for recording activity in preschools (OSRAP) and real-time accelerometry using the MTI/CSA 7164 accelerometer. Parents completed a take-home survey assessing sociodemographic information, parental height and weight, modeling of physical activity, support for physical activity, active toys and sporting equipment at home, child’s television watching, frequency of park visitation, and perceptions of child competence. RESULTS Overweight boys were significantly less active than their nonoverweight peers during the preschool day. No significant differences were observed in girls. Despite a strong association between childhood overweight status and parental obesity, no significant differences were observed for the hypothesized parental influences on physical activity behavior. CONCLUSIONS Our results suggest that a significant proportion of overweight children may be at increased risk for further gains in adiposity because of low levels of physical activity during the preschool day.