The effects of the minimum wage on earnings and employment in Brazil

This paper analyzes the effects of the mlmmum wage on both, eammgs and employment, using a Brazilian rotating panel data (Pesquisa Mensal do Emprego - PME) which has a similar design to the US Current Population Survey (CPS). First an intuitive description of the data is done by graphical analysis. In particular, Kemel densities are used to show that an increase in the minimum wage compresses the eamings distribution. This graphical analysis is then forrnalized by descriptive models. This is followed by a discussion on identification and endogeneity that leads to the respecification of the model. Second, models for employment are estimated, using an interesting decomposition that makes it possible to separate out the effects of an increase in the minimum wage on number of hours and on posts of jobs. The main result is that an increase in the minimum wage was found to compress the eamings distribution, with a moderately small effect on the leveI of employment, contributing to alleviate inequality.

Inference in differences-in-differences with few treated groups and heteroskedasticity

Differences-in-Differences (DID) is one of the most widely used identification strategies in applied economics. However, how to draw inferences in DID models when there are few treated groups remains an open question. We show that the usual inference methods used in DID models might not perform well when there are few treated groups and errors are heteroskedastic. In particular, we show that when there is variation in the number of observations per group, inference methods designed to work when there are few treated groups tend to (under-) over-reject the null hypothesis when the treated groups are (large) small relative to the control groups. This happens because larger groups tend to have lower variance, generating heteroskedasticity in the group x time aggregate DID model. We provide evidence from Monte Carlo simulations and from placebo DID regressions with the American Community Survey (ACS) and the Current Population Survey (CPS) datasets to show that this problem is relevant even in datasets with large numbers of observations per group. We then derive an alternative inference method that provides accurate hypothesis testing in situations where there are few treated groups (or even just one) and many control groups in the presence of heteroskedasticity. Our method assumes that we can model the heteroskedasticity of a linear combination of the errors. We show that this assumption can be satisfied without imposing strong assumptions on the errors in common DID applications. With many pre-treatment periods, we show that this assumption can be relaxed. Instead, we provide an alternative inference method that relies on strict stationarity and ergodicity of the time series. Finally, we consider two recent alternatives to DID when there are many pre-treatment periods. We extend our inference methods to linear factor models when there are few treated groups. We also derive conditions under which a permutation test for the synthetic control estimator proposed by Abadie et al. (2010) is robust to heteroskedasticity and propose a modification on the test statistic that provided a better heteroskedasticity correction in our simulations.

Inference in differences-in-differences with few treated groups and heteroskedasticity

Differences-in-Differences (DID) is one of the most widely used identification strategies in applied economics. However, how to draw inferences in DID models when there are few treated groups remains an open question. We show that the usual inference methods used in DID models might not perform well when there are few treated groups and errors are heteroskedastic. In particular, we show that when there is variation in the number of observations per group, inference methods designed to work when there are few treated groups tend to (under-) over-reject the null hypothesis when the treated groups are (large) small relative to the control groups. This happens because larger groups tend to have lower variance, generating heteroskedasticity in the group x time aggregate DID model. We provide evidence from Monte Carlo simulations and from placebo DID regressions with the American Community Survey (ACS) and the Current Population Survey (CPS) datasets to show that this problem is relevant even in datasets with large numbers of observations per group. We then derive an alternative inference method that provides accurate hypothesis testing in situations where there are few treated groups (or even just one) and many control groups in the presence of heteroskedasticity. Our method assumes that we know how the heteroskedasticity is generated, which is the case when it is generated by variation in the number of observations per group. With many pre-treatment periods, we show that this assumption can be relaxed. Instead, we provide an alternative application of our method that relies on assumptions about stationarity and convergence of the moments of the time series. Finally, we consider two recent alternatives to DID when there are many pre-treatment groups. We extend our inference method to linear factor models when there are few treated groups. We also propose a permutation test for the synthetic control estimator that provided a better heteroskedasticity correction in our simulations than the test suggested by Abadie et al. (2010).

Cherry picking with synthetic controls

The synthetic control (SC) method has been recently proposed as an alternative method to estimate treatment e ects in comparative case studies. Abadie et al. [2010] and Abadie et al. [2015] argue that one of the advantages of the SC method is that it imposes a data-driven process to select the comparison units, providing more transparency and less discretionary power to the researcher. However, an important limitation of the SC method is that it does not provide clear guidance on the choice of predictor variables used to estimate the SC weights. We show that such lack of speci c guidances provides signi cant opportunities for the researcher to search for speci cations with statistically signi cant results, undermining one of the main advantages of the method. Considering six alternative speci cations commonly used in SC applications, we calculate in Monte Carlo simulations the probability of nding a statistically signi cant result at 5% in at least one speci cation. We nd that this probability can be as high as 13% (23% for a 10% signi cance test) when there are 12 pre-intervention periods and decay slowly with the number of pre-intervention periods. With 230 pre-intervention periods, this probability is still around 10% (18% for a 10% signi cance test). We show that the speci cation that uses the average pre-treatment outcome values to estimate the weights performed particularly bad in our simulations. However, the speci cation-searching problem remains relevant even when we do not consider this speci cation. We also show that this speci cation-searching problem is relevant in simulations with real datasets looking at placebo interventions in the Current Population Survey (CPS). In order to mitigate this problem, we propose a criterion to select among SC di erent speci cations based on the prediction error of each speci cations in placebo estimations

Flutuação populacional e distribuição vertical de Brevicoryne brassicae (L.) (Hemiptera: Aphididae) em couve

O conhecimento da dinâmica populacional e da distribuição vertical de insetos pragas em plantas hospedeiras é fundamental para o desenvolvimento de programas de manejo integrado de pragas. No presente trabalho efetuou-se um levantamento populacional de formas ápteras do pulgão Brevicoryne brassicae (L.), visando determinar a época de maior densidade populacional e a distribuição vertical em plantas de couve, (Brassica oleracea L. var. acephala DC.), cultivadas em Jaboticabal, SP. O estudo foi realizado durante as safras de brássicas de 1998 e 1999, efetuando-se correção da acidez do solo por meio de aplicação de calcário apenas no campo utilizado em 1998. A amostragem dos pulgões foi feita visualmente em folhas classificadas em três categorias: apical, mediana e basal. Nas duas safras estudadas, a infestação de B. brassicae na couve atingiu a maior densidade populacional em setembro, diminuindo rapidamente a seguir. Nos dois campos não se observou a mesma distribuição de B. brassicae em folhas apicais, medianas e basais. Os fatores que podem ter contribuído para as diferenças observadas no padrão de distribuição do pulgão devem estar relacionados com a precipitação pluvial e o calcário magnesiano.

Species Diversity of Myrmecofauna and Araneofauna Associated with Agroecosystem and Forest Fragments and their Interaction with Carabidae and Staphylinidae (Coleoptera)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Impacto de inimigos naturais e de fatores meteorológicos sobre uma população de Brevicoryne brassicae (L.) (Hemiptera: Aphididae) em couve

Neste estudo, visou-se avaliar o impacto de inimigos naturais e de fatores meteorológicos na população do pulgão Brevicoryne brassicae (L.), na cultura da couve, usando-se correlação simples e análise de regressão múltipla com seleção de variáveis pelo método stepwise. A amostragem de B. brassicae foi realizada por procura visual e dos inimigos naturais através de armadilhas de sucção e de solo. Formas ápteras de B. brassicae começaram a infestar a couve em julho, atingindo pico populacional em setembro. Os fatores que apresentaram correlação significativa com a população de B. brassicae, no período que abrangeu todo o levantamento populacional, foram Diaeretiella rapae (Mc'Intosh), aranhas presentes no solo, precipitação pluviométrica e umidade relativa, sugerindo que tais fatores tiveram função importante na mortalidade do pulgão. No período de maior crescimento e declínio populacional de B. brassicae, aranhas presentes no solo mostraram-se como o fator de mortalidade mais significativo relacionado com a variação da densidade populacional do pulgão.

Influência da Adubação Fosfatada - Potássica na Ocorrência de Pragas na Cultura da Soja

O estudo foi desenvolvido para se determinar o efeito da adubação fosfatada-potássica da soja sobre a ocorrência de insetos-praga. Os tratamentos constituíram um fatorial 4 x 4 (quatro doses de fósforo e quatro doses de potássio) com três repetições. Os níveis de fósforo utilizados foram, respectivamente (0, 80, 120 e 160 kg/ha) de P2O5 e (0, 40, 60 e 80 kg/ha) de K2O. Foram realizadas amostragens semanais a partir do estádio V2 da cultura, utilizando-se pano de amostragem. Os resultados indicaram uma tendência de aumento populacional de Piezodorus guildinii (Westwood) para as maiores doses dos nutrientes. A ocorrência de Diabrotica speciosa (Germar) foi correlacionada com alguns nutrientes das folhas.

Flutuação populacional e análise faunística de Carabidae e Staphylinidae (Coleoptera) em Jaboticabal, São Paulo

In this study a population survey of Carabidae and Staphylinidae (Coleoptera) adults was carried out with the aim to analyze their populations through faunistic indexes and to determine the influence of temperature, relative humidity and rainfall. The study was conducted in two areas cultivated with soybean/corn under no-tillage and conventional tillage systems and adjacent to a forest fragment and a Pinus stand, respectively. Beetles were sampled by pitfall traps distributed in two 100-m transects. The fauna was characterized by diversity (H), evenness (J), abundance, dominance, frequency and constancy indexes. The influence of air temperature, relative humidity and rainfall was verified using stepwise regression. The carabids Abaris basistriatus Chaudoir, Odontochila nodicornis (Dejean) and Scarites sp. were classified as predominant species in both areas, while Selenophorus alternans Dejean only classified as predominant in the area under conventional tillage system, likewise for Megacephala sp. and Selenophorus seriatoporus Putz. in the no-tillage area. The predominant species showed just one population peak each year, usually observed from December to January. The pluvial precipitation influenced the occurrence of the carabids positively and significantly, with O. nodicornis and Megacephala sp. being the most demanding species in relation to the effect of humidity on their dispersal.

Qualidade de vida na terceira idade: um conceito subjetivo

Tendo-se em conta a expectativa de vida cada vez mais alta, vários estudos têm sido desenvolvidos de modo a contribuir para a melhoria da qualidade de vida na terceira idade. Objetivou-se conhecer a opinião dos idosos de um município de porte médio do interior paulista sobre o que é qualidade de vida, através de uma pergunta aberta que foi incluída como parte de um inquérito populacional sobre estilo e qualidade de vida. A análise da referida questão foi realizada através do método de Análise de Conteúdo. Posteriormente calcularam-se as freqüências das categorias obtidas, agrupadas segundo o método de Ward, e em seguida os idosos foram agrupados segundo o método de k-médias. Os resultados indicaram a existência de três grupos de idosos segundo sua definição de qualidade de vida: o primeiro valorizou a questão afetiva e a família; o segundo priorizou a obtenção do prazer e conforto; o terceiro poderia ser sintetizado como o idoso que identifica a qualidade de vida colocando em prática o seu ideário de vida. Sugere-se que, na implementação de ações, se objetive melhorar a qualidade de vida do idoso, levando-se em conta as magnitudes e as diferenças de cada grupo.

Isolation and characterization of eight microsatellite loci in Leporinus macrocephalus (Characiformes : Anostomidae) and cross-species amplification

Leporinus macrocephalus is a species endemic to the Paraguay River basin and an important fishery resource, as well as a valuable species in aquaculture programs. A total of eight polymorphic microsatellite loci were isolated and characterized. A population survey was conducted involving 45 specimens whereby a large number of alleles (range 5-17 among loci), a highly observed (0.1667-0.6129) and an expected (0.6967-0.9448) heterozygosity was detected, indicating its usefulness in population genetics studies. Cross-species amplification was successful in eight Characiformes species.

Isolation and characterization of microsatellite loci in Pseudoplatystoma corruscans (Siluriformes : Pimelodidae) and cross-species amplification

A total of five polymorphic microsatellites loci from Pseudoplatystoma corruscans were isolated and characterized. A population survey involving 43 specimens resolved a large number of alleles (range seven to eight among loci) and high observed heterozygosity (0.500-0.615), indicating its usefulness in population genetics studies. Cross-species amplification was successful in four other Pimelodidae species.

Distribuição espacial dos idosos de um município de médio porte do interior paulista segundo algumas características sócio-demográficas e de morbidade

Os Sistemas de Informação Geográfica constituem importantes instrumentos dentro da Saúde Pública como técnicas de análise da distribuição de agravos à população, e, portanto, podem ser usados no estudo da localização de indivíduos portadores de doenças crônicas. Este trabalho objetivou a realização de análise espacial da distribuição da população de sessenta anos e mais no Município de Botucatu, São Paulo, Brasil, estudando o perfil sócio-demográfico e a presença de diabetes e hipertensão arterial. Foram analisados dados de 468 idosos da amostra de inquérito populacional realizado entre 2001 e 2002. Os idosos com melhor nível sócio-econômico residem nos setores censitários de estratos sociais mais altos, o que foi estatisticamente comprovado pela utilização de técnicas de análise espacial para renda e escolaridade. Não se encontrou padrão de distribuição espacial para idosos hipertensos e diabéticos que se localizaram no mapa de forma heterogênea. O presente estudo sugere a utilização das técnicas de geoprocessamento para o mapeamento digital das áreas de abrangências das Unidades de Atenção Primária à Saúde, para um melhor controle da distribuição de idosos portadores de doenças crônicas e de sua assistência pelos profissionais de saúde.

Flutua_̧tiao populacional de formas aladas de Brevicoryne brassicae (L.) (Hemiptera: Aphididae)

Studies related with the flight activity of aphids captured with traps can be useful to predict the appearance of alate forms in the field. It is also useful to understand the population dynamics of those insects. This work was carried out at the Faculdade de Ciências Agrárias e Veterinárias, Universidade Estadual Paulista, Jaboticabal, State of São Paulo, during the period from July 1997 to December 1999, aiming to determine the population curve of alate Brevicoryne brassicae (L.) in the region of Jaboticabal and the influence meteorological factors plays on it. The population survey was carried out in four places, and the alate aphids were sampled by yellow water traps. The influence of air temperature, relative humidity, rainfall and sunshine brightness was verified using stepwise regression. The first captures of alate B. brassicae in the traps began at the end of June. In the region of Jaboticabal, the population curve of alate B. brassicae showed the highest frequency of flights during September. The appearance of alate forms in kale fields at initial stage of development was favored by maximum and minimum temperatures of 26.4°C and 13.5°C, respectively; relative humidity of 75.1%, and reduced rainfall.

Composição faunística de insetos predadores em fragmento florestal e em área de hortaliças na região de Jaboticabal, estado de São Paulo

A population survey was carried out in a forest fragment and in an area of vegetables, from November/1996 to February/1998, aiming to determine the predator insect species and the influence of abiotic factors. The samples were taken weekly by light traps. The results were evaluated using faunistic analysis and simple correlation with temperature, relative humidity and rainfall. In the forest fragment higher similarity in the abundance of species was observed comparing to the area of vegetables, but the largest number of captured individuals (95%) occurred in this last habitat. Metius sp., Polpochila impressifrons (Dej.), Eulissus sp. and Doru sp. were predominant species in both areas, evidencing they may play an important role as pest predators in areas of vegetables. Arthrostictus speciosus (Dej.) and Leptotrachelus sp. predominated in the forest fragment, and the same was observed with Paederus sp. in the vegetable area. This species is probably adapted for open and hot places, while A. speciosus and Leptotrachelus sp. can be adapted for dark and humid places of forests.