Rates of spread of marine pathogens

Epidemics of marine pathogens can spread at extremely rapid rates. For example, herpes virus spread through pilchard populations in Australia at a rate in excess of 10 000 km year(-1), and morbillivirus infections in seals and dolphins have spread at more than 3000 km year(-1). In terrestrial environments, only the epidemics of myxomatosis and calicivirus in Australian rabbits and West Nile Virus in birds in North America have rates of spread in excess of 1000 km year(-1). The rapid rates of spread of these epidemics has been attributed to flying insect vectors, but flying vectors have not been proposed for any marine pathogen. The most likely explanation for the relatively rapid spread of marine pathogens is the lack of barriers to dispersal in some parts of the ocean, and the potential for long-term survival of pathogens outside the host. These findings caution that pathogens may pose a particularly severe problem in the ocean. There is a need to develop epidemic models capable of generating these high rates of spread and obtain more estimates of disease spread rate.

An investigation into effects of long-distance seed dispersal on organelle population genetic structure and colonization rate: a model analysis

A simulation-based modelling approach is used to examine the effects of stratified seed dispersal (representing the distribution of the majority of dispersal around the maternal parent and also rare long-distance dispersal) on the genetic structure of maternally inherited genomes and the colonization rate of expanding plant populations. The model is parameterized to approximate postglacial oak colonization in the UK, but is relevant to plant populations that exhibit stratified seed dispersal. The modelling approach considers the colonization of individual plants over a large area (three 500 km x 10 km rolled transects are used to approximate a 500 km x 300 km area). Our approach shows how the interaction of plant population dynamics with stratified dispersal can result in a spatially patchy haplotype structure. We show that while both colonization speeds and the resulting genetic structure are influenced by the characteristics of the dispersal kernel, they are robust to changes in the periodicity of long-distance events, provided the average number of long-distance dispersal events remains constant. We also consider the effects of additional physical and environmental mechanisms on plant colonization. Results show significant changes in genetic structure when the initial colonization of different haplotypes is staggered over time and when a barrier to colonization is introduced. Environmental influences on survivorship and fecundity affect both the genetic structure and the speed of colonization. The importance of these mechanisms in relation to the postglacial spread and genetic structure of oak in the UK is discussed.

Assessing moth migration and population structuring in Helicoverpa annigera (Lepidoptera : Noctuidae) at the regional scale: Example from the Darling Downs, Australia

Analysis of gene flow and migration of Helicoverpa armigera (Hubner) in a major cropping region of Australia identified substantial genetic structuring, migration events, and significant population genotype changes over the 38-mo sample period from November 1999 to January 2003. Five highly variable microsatellite markers were used to analyze 916 individuals from 77 collections across 10 localities in the Darling Downs. The molecular data indicate that in some years (e.g., April 2002-March 2003), low levels of H. armigera migration and high differentiation between populations occurred, whereas in other years (e.g., April 2001-March 2002), there were higher levels of adult moth movement resulting in little local structuring of populations. Analysis of populations in other Australian cropping regions provided insight into the quantity and direction of immigration of H. armigera adults into the Darling Downs growing region of Australia. These data provide evidence adult moth movement differs from season to season, highlighting the importance of studies in groups such as the Lepidoptera extending over consecutive years, because short-term sampling may be misleading when population dynamics and migration change so significantly. This research demonstrates the importance of maintaining a coordinated insecticide resistance management strategy, because in some years H. armigera populations may be independent within a region and thus significantly influenced by local management practices; however, periods with high migration will occur and resistance may rapidly spread.

A modelling approach to estimate the effect of exotic pollinators on exotic weed population dynamics: bumblebees and broom in Australia

The role of mutualisms in contributing to species invasions is rarely considered, inhibiting effective risk analysis and management options. Potential ecological consequences of invasion of non-native pollinators include increased pollination and seed set of invasive plants, with subsequent impacts on population growth rates and rates of spread. We outline a quantitative approach for evaluating the impact of a proposed introduction of an invasive pollinator on existing weed population dynamics and demonstrate the use of this approach on a relatively data-rich case study: the impacts on Cytisus scoparius (Scotch broom) from proposed introduction of Bombus terrestris. Three models have been used to assess population growth (matrix model), spread speed (integrodifference equation), and equilibrium occupancy (lattice model) for C. scoparius. We use available demographic data for an Australian population to parameterize two of these models. Increased seed set due to more efficient pollination resulted in a higher population growth rate in the density-independent matrix model, whereas simulations of enhanced pollination scenarios had a negligible effect on equilibrium weed occupancy in the lattice model. This is attributed to strong microsite limitation of recruitment in invasive C. scoparius populations observed in Australia and incorporated in the lattice model. A lack of information regarding secondary ant dispersal of C. scoparius prevents us from parameterizing the integrodifference equation model for Australia, but studies of invasive populations in California suggest that spread speed will also increase with higher seed set. For microsite-limited C. scoparius populations, increased seed set has minimal effects on equilibrium site occupancy. However, for density-independent rapidly invading populations, increased seed set is likely to lead to higher growth rates and spread speeds. The impacts of introduced pollinators on native flora and fauna and the potential for promoting range expansion in pollinator-limited 'sleeper weeds' also remain substantial risks.

Seropositivity to Rabbit Haemorrhagic Disease Virus in non-target mammals during periods of viral activity in a population of wild rabbits in New Zealand

As part of a longitudinal study of the epidemiology of rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus (RHDV) in New Zealand, serum samples were obtained from trapped feral animals that may have consumed European rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus) carcasses (non-target species). During a 21-month period when RHDV infection was monitored in a defined wild rabbit population, 16 feral house cats (Felis catus), 11 stoats (Mustela erminea), four ferrets (Mustela furo) and 126 hedgehogs (Erinaceus europaeus) were incidentally captured in the rabbit traps. The proportions of samples that were seropositive to RHDV were 38% for cats, 18% for stoats, 25% for ferrets and 4% for hedgehogs. Seropositive non-target species were trapped in April 2000, in the absence of an overt epidemic of rabbit haemorrhagic disease (RHD) in the rabbit population, but evidence of recent infection in rabbits was shown. Seropositive non-target species were found up to 2.5 months before and 1 month after this RHDV activity in wild rabbits was detected. Seropositive predators were also trapped on the site between 1 and 4.5 months after a dramatic RHD epidemic in February 2001. This study has shown that high antibody titres can be found in non-target species when there is no overt evidence of RHDV infection in the rabbit population, although a temporal relationship could not be assessed statistically owning to the small sample sizes. Predators and scavengers might be able to contribute to localised spread of RHDV through their movements.

Dispersal in a population of the lichen Hypogymnia physodes

Dispersal of a Hypogymnia physodes (L.) Nyl. population was studied on an isolated Prunus blireiana L. tree at a site in North Seattle, U.S.A. Lichen propagules were trapped on adhesive strips pinned to four sites on the tree for 7 successive days. Soredia of H. physodes were frequently deposited on the strips but thallus fragments were rare. More soredia were deposited on the upper and lower branches than on the trunk, few soredia were deposited on the underside of the branches. The total daily deposition of soredia on the tree was positively correlated with average daily wind speed. Dispersal downwind from the tree was studied with squares of adhesive contact paper pinned to boards and located at intervals up to 25 m from the tree. Soredia and a few thallus fragments were recorded 25 m and 10 m, respectively, downwind on a day when average wind speed was 10.3 m/sec. The dispersal of soredia by wind from four individual thalli was studied over 10 successive days. Soredia were deposited from each thallus on each day mostly within 2 cm of the source. Higher wind speeds were necessary to dispersae soredia on days when the relative humidity was high. Soredia and thallus fragments were also dispersed by splash dispersal. More soredia were splashed furthest at a splash height of 90 cm. These results suggest that initial colonization of the tree by H. physodes may have occurred by wind-dispersed soredia. Subsequent spread probably occurred from established thalli mainly by the dispersal of soredia by wind and rain splash.

The effect of climate change on the population of sycamore lace bug (Corythuca ciliata, Say) based on a simulation model with phenological response

Climate change affects on insect populations in many ways: it can cause a shift in geographical spread, abundance, or diversity, it can change the location, the timing and the magnitude of outbreaks of pests and it can define the phenological or even the genetic properties of the species. Long-time investigations of special insect populations, simulation models and scenario studies give us very important information about the response of the insects far away and near to our century. Getting to know the potential responses of insect populations to climate change makes us possible to evaluate the adaptation of pest management alternatives as well as to formulate our future management policy. In this paper we apply two simple models, in order to introduce a complex case study for a Sycamore lace bug population. We test how the model works in case the whether conditions are very different from those in our days. Thus, besides we can understand the processes that happen in present, we can analyze the effects of a possible climate change, as well.

Fish population dynamics in a seasonally varying wetland

Small fishes in seasonally flooded environments such as the Everglades are capable of spreading into newly flooded areas and building up substantial biomass. Passive drift cannot account for the rapidity of observed population expansions. To test the ‘reaction–diffusion’ mechanism for spread of the fish, we estimated their diffusion coefficient and applied a reaction–diffusion model. This mechanism was also too weak to account for the spatial dynamics. Two other hypotheses were tested through modeling. The first—the ‘refuge mechanism’—hypothesizes that small remnant populations of small fishes survive the dry season in small permanent bodies of water (refugia), sites where the water level is otherwise below the surface. The second mechanism, which we call the ‘dynamic ideal free distribution mechanism’ is that consumption by the fish creates a prey density gradient and that fish taxis along this gradient can lead to rapid population expansion in space. We examined the two alternatives and concluded that although refugia may play an important role in recolonization by the fish population during reflooding, only the second, taxis in the direction of the flooding front, seems capable of matching empirical observations. This study has important implications for management of wetlands, as fish biomass is an essential support of higher trophic levels.

The Irish paradigm on the natural progression of hepatitis C virus infection: an investigation in a homogeneous patient population infected with HCV 1b (Review)

The aetiological agent of chronic hepatitis C is the hepatitis C virus. The hepatitis C virus is spread by parenteral transmission of body fluids, primarily blood or blood products. In 1989, after more than a decade of research, HCV was isolated and characterised. The hepatitis C viral genome is a positive-sense, single-stranded RNA molecule approximately 9.4 kb in length, which encodes a polyprotein of about 3100 amino acids. There are 6 main genotypes of HCV, each further stratified by subtype. In 1994, a cohort of women was identified in Ireland as having been iatrogenically exposed to the hepatitis C virus. The women were all young and exposed as a consequence of the receipt of HCV 1b contaminated anti-D immunoglobulin. The source of the infection was identified as an acutely infected female. As part of a voluntary serological screening programme involving 62,667 people, 704 individuals were identified as seropositive for exposure to the hepatitis C virus; 55.4% were found to be positive for the viral genome 17 years after exposure. Of these women 98% had evidence of inflammation, but suprisingly, a remarkable 49% showed no evidence of fibrosis. Clinicopathology and virological analysis has identified associations between viral load and the histological activity index for inflammation, and, between inflammation and levels of the liver enzyme alanine aminotransferase. Infection at a younger age appears to protect individuals from progression to advanced liver disease. Molecular analyses of host immunogenetic elements shows that particular class II human leukocyte associated antigen alleles are associated with clearance of the hepatitis C virus. Additional class II alleles have been identified that are associated with stable viraemia over an extended period of patient follow-up. Although, investigation of large untreated homogeneous cohorts is likely to become more difficult, as the efficacy of anti-viral therapy improves, further investigation of host and viral factors that influence disease progression will help provide an evidence based approach were realistic expectations regarding patient prognosis can be ascertained.

Contemporary population genetic structure and phylogeography of pink salmon

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Predictive Models for Tomato Spotted Wilt Virus Spread Dynamics, Considering Frankliniella occidentalis Specific Life Processes as Influenced by the Virus

Several models have been studied on predictive epidemics of arthropod vectored plant viruses in an attempt to bring understanding to the complex but specific relationship between the three cornered pathosystem (virus, vector and host plant), as well as their interactions with the environment. A large body of studies mainly focuses on weather based models as management tool for monitoring pests and diseases, with very few incorporating the contribution of vector's life processes in the disease dynamics, which is an essential aspect when mitigating virus incidences in a crop stand. In this study, we hypothesized that the multiplication and spread of tomato spotted wilt virus (TSWV) in a crop stand is strongly related to its influences on Frankliniella occidentalis preferential behavior and life expectancy. Model dynamics of important aspects in disease development within TSWV-F. occidentalis-host plant interactions were developed, focusing on F. occidentalis' life processes as influenced by TSWV. The results show that the influence of TSWV on F. occidentalis preferential behaviour leads to an estimated increase in relative acquisition rate of the virus, and up to 33% increase in transmission rate to healthy plants. Also, increased life expectancy; which relates to improved fitness, is dependent on the virus induced preferential behaviour, consequently promoting multiplication and spread of the virus in a crop stand. The development of vector-based models could further help in elucidating the role of tri-trophic interactions in agricultural disease systems. Use of the model to examine the components of the disease process could also boost our understanding on how specific epidemiological characteristics interact to cause diseases in crops. With this level of understanding we can efficiently develop more precise control strategies for the virus and the vector.

Stenosis triggers spread of helical Pseudomonas biofilms in cylindrical flow systems

Biofilms are multicellular bacterial structures that adhere to surfaces and often endow the bacterial population with tolerance to antibiotics and other environmental insults. Biofilms frequently colonize the tubing of medical devices through mechanisms that are poorly understood. Here we studied the helicoidal spread of Pseudomonas putida biofilms through cylindrical conduits of varied diameters in slow laminar flow regimes. Numerical simulations of such flows reveal vortical motion at stenoses and junctions, which enhances bacterial adhesion and fosters formation of filamentous structures. Formation of long, downstream-flowing bacterial threads that stem from narrowings and connections was detected experimentally, as predicted by our model. Accumulation of bacterial biomass makes the resulting filaments undergo a helical instability. These incipient helices then coarsened until constrained by the tubing walls, and spread along the whole tube length without obstructing the flow. A three-dimensional discrete filament model supports this coarsening mechanism and yields simulations of helix dynamics in accordance with our experimental observations. These findings describe an unanticipated mechanism for bacterial spreading in tubing networks which might be involved in some hospital-acquired infections and bacterial contamination of catheters.

Community- and population-level effects of chytridiomycosis in a Neotropical amphibian community

As the number of fungal pathogen outbreaks become more frequent worldwide across taxa, so have the number of species extirpations and communities persisting with the pathogen. This phenomenon raises questions, such as: “what leads to host extinction during an outbreak?” and “how are hosts persisting once the pathogen establishes?.” But the data on host populations and communities across life stages before and after pathogen arrival rarely exist to answer these questions. Over the past three to four decades, the amphibian-killing fungus Batrachochytrim dendrobatidis (Bd) spread in a wave-like manner across Central America, leading to rapid species extirpations and population declines. I collected data on tadpole and adult amphibians in El Copé, Panama before, during, and after the Bd outbreak to answer these questions. I used Bayesian statistical approaches to account for imperfect host and pathogen detection of marked and unmarked individuals. In the tadpole community, within 11 months of Bds arrival, density and occupancy rapidly declined. Species losses were phylogenetically correlated, with glass frogs disappearing first, and tree frogs and poison-dart frogs remaining. I found that tadpole communities resembled one another more strongly after the outbreak than they did before Bd invasion. I found no tadpoles within 22 months of the outbreak and limited signs of recovery within 10 years. In contrast, at the same site, for a population of male glass frogs, Espadarana prosopleon, I found that 10 years post-outbreak, the population was consistently half its historic abundance, and that the lack of recruits to the population explained why the population had not rebounded, rather than high pathogen-induced mortality. And finally, examining the entire amphibian community, I found high pathogen prevalence, low infection intensities, and high survival rates of uninfected and infected hosts. Bd transmission risk, i.e., the probability a susceptible host becomes infected, did not relate to host density, pathogen prevalence, or infection intensity– Bd transmission risk was uniform across the study area. My results are especially relevant to conservation biologists aiming to predict the future impacts of Bd outbreaks, those trying to manage persisting populations, and those interested in reintroducing species back into wild amphibian communities.

The contribution of Angola to the early spread of the HIV-1 epidemic

Poster presented at the 22nd International HIV Dynamics and Evolution. Budapest, Hungary, 13-16 May 2015

GENETIC VARIATION, LOCAL ADAPTATION AND POPULATION STRUCTURE IN NORTH AMERICAN RED OAK SPECIES, QUERCUS RUBRA L. AND Q. ELLIPSOIDALIS E. J. HILL

Forest trees, like oaks, rely on high levels of genetic variation to adapt to varying environmental conditions. Thus, genetic variation and its distribution are important for the long-term survival and adaptability of oak populations. Climate change is projected to lead to increased drought and fire events as well as a northward migration of tree species, including oaks. Additionally, decline in oak regeneration has become increasingly concerning since it may lead to decreased gene flow and increased inbreeding levels. This will in turn lead to lowered levels of genetic diversity, negatively affecting the growth and survival of populations. At the same time, populations at the species’ distribution edge, like those in this study, could possess important stores of genetic diversity and adaptive potential, while also being vulnerable to climatic or anthropogenic changes. A survey of the level and distribution of genetic variation and identification of potentially adaptive genes is needed since adaptive genetic variation is essential for their long-term survival. Oaks possess a remarkable characteristic in that they maintain their species identity and specific environmental adaptations despite their propensity to hybridize. Thus, in the face of interspecific gene flow, some areas of the genome remain differentiated due to selection. This characteristic allows the study of local environmental adaptation through genetic variation analyses. Furthermore, using genic markers with known putative functions makes it possible to link those differentiated markers to potential adaptive traits (e.g., flowering time, drought stress tolerance). Demographic processes like gene flow and genetic drift also play an important role in how genes (including adaptive genes) are maintained or spread. These processes are influenced by disturbances, both natural and anthropogenic. An examination of how genetic variation is geographically distributed can display how these genetic processes and geographical disturbances influence genetic variation patterns. For example, the spatial clustering of closely related trees could promote inbreeding with associated negative effects (inbreeding depression), if gene flow is limited. In turn this can have negative consequences for a species’ ability to adapt to changing environmental conditions. In contrast, interspecific hybridization may also allow the transfer of genes between species that increase their adaptive potential in a changing environment. I have studied the ecologically divergent, interfertile red oaks, Quercus rubra and Q. ellipsoidalis, to identify genes with potential roles in adaptation to abiotic stress through traits such as drought tolerance and flowering time, and to assess the level and distribution of genetic variation. I found evidence for moderate gene flow between the two species and low interspecific genetic differences at most genetic markers (Lind and Gailing 2013). However, the screening of genic markers with potential roles in phenology and drought tolerance led to the identification of a CONSTANS-like (COL) gene, a candidate gene for flowering time and growth. This marker, located in the coding region of the gene, was highly differentiated between the two species in multiple geographical areas, despite interspecific gene flow, and may play a role in reproductive isolation and adaptive divergence between the two species (Lind-Riehl et al. 2014). Since climate change could result in a northward migration of trees species like oaks, this gene could be important in maintaining species identity despite increased contact zones between species (e.g., increased gene flow). Finally I examined differences in spatial genetic structure (SGS) and genetic variation between species and populations subjected to different management strategies and natural disturbances. Diverse management activities combined with various natural disturbances as well as species specific life history traits influenced SGS patterns and inbreeding levels (Lind-Riehl and Gailing submitted).