A Critical Review of Opinion Polls relating to Iranian Voting Intentions: Problems of Research Methodology as applied to Complex Societies

After the 10th Iranian Presidential election on June 12, 2009, several public opinion polls taken in Iran attracted the attention of policy-makers and journalists around the world because of the political crisis that followed. In this paper I first review critically the polls conducted by the WPO (WorldPublicOpinion.org), PIPA (Program on International Policy Attitudes) at the University of Maryland. I also review an essay by Steven Kull, which is based on the aforementioned poll results and which in my opinion leads to false conclusions concerning Iran’s political prospects. I also discuss “An Analysis of Multiple Polls of the Iranian Public,” published by WPO-PIPA on February 3 2010. The present paper arrives at the overall conclusion that it is impossible to obtain an accurate image of political opinions in societies as complicated as that of Iran by concentrating on only one technique of research and analysis, especially when the political and social situation in the society concerned is in a state of constant flux.

RELIGIÃO PROFÉTICA E CRISE POLÍTICA: Um estudo da sociedade norte-israelita à luz de Oséias 9,1-9.

Com o desenvolvimento deste projeto de pesquisa Religião profética e crise política: estudo da sociedade norte-israelita à luz de Oséias 9,1-9 queremos identificar que momento de crise foi essa pelo qual passou a sociedade norte-israelita no século VIII a.C., e qual seria o background oseânico que teria funcionado como um verdadeiro leitmotiv em sua vida profética. Ao invés de partirmos de uma regressão, i.é., de um estudo dedutivo (método descendente), devido à falta de material e também pela complexidade do trabalho, farei o inverso, partirei da teoria que hoje é plenamente aceita no meio acadêmico. Fundado numa metodologia que privilegia os resultados obtidos a partir dos mais rigorosos dados historiográficos métodos históricos críticos e pesquisas arqueológicas este projeto de pesquisa utilizará o método indutivo, i.é., partiremos de um processo ascendente. O desafio está em delinear a trajetória autonômica da monarquia norte-israelita, procurando estabelecer quais foram os momentos mais marcantes desta caminhada histórica, suscetíveis de forjar a manifestação de profetas como Amós, Oséias, Miquéias e tantos outros. Como objeto principal de nossa pesquisa, o foco estará sobre o profeta Oséias que soube como nenhum outro antes dele, fazer uma síntese entre religião e vida, i.é., soube desenvolver critérios éticos que serviram como parâmetro avaliativo de pureza da religião javista

RELIGIÃO PROFÉTICA E CRISE POLÍTICA: Um estudo da sociedade norte-israelita à luz de Oséias 9,1-9.

Com o desenvolvimento deste projeto de pesquisa Religião profética e crise política: estudo da sociedade norte-israelita à luz de Oséias 9,1-9 queremos identificar que momento de crise foi essa pelo qual passou a sociedade norte-israelita no século VIII a.C., e qual seria o background oseânico que teria funcionado como um verdadeiro leitmotiv em sua vida profética. Ao invés de partirmos de uma regressão, i.é., de um estudo dedutivo (método descendente), devido à falta de material e também pela complexidade do trabalho, farei o inverso, partirei da teoria que hoje é plenamente aceita no meio acadêmico. Fundado numa metodologia que privilegia os resultados obtidos a partir dos mais rigorosos dados historiográficos métodos históricos críticos e pesquisas arqueológicas este projeto de pesquisa utilizará o método indutivo, i.é., partiremos de um processo ascendente. O desafio está em delinear a trajetória autonômica da monarquia norte-israelita, procurando estabelecer quais foram os momentos mais marcantes desta caminhada histórica, suscetíveis de forjar a manifestação de profetas como Amós, Oséias, Miquéias e tantos outros. Como objeto principal de nossa pesquisa, o foco estará sobre o profeta Oséias que soube como nenhum outro antes dele, fazer uma síntese entre religião e vida, i.é., soube desenvolver critérios éticos que serviram como parâmetro avaliativo de pureza da religião javista

Acción colectiva rural, reforma agraria y política en El Ecuador, ca. 1920-1965

This thesis studies the rural collective action processes between 1920 and 1965 in Ecuador with a social history and political sociology approach. An approximation is carried out towards the conflicts, mobilizations and protests where indigenous and not indigenous peasants participated. Because of this, they are considered two periods, the first one that last from 1931 to 1947, sealed by the political instability and a constant change of governments; and the second one between 1948 and 1965, in a phase of successive constitutionally governments that ruled between 1948 and 1960. The conflicts and rural mobilizations reached a major visibility since 1958, deeply affecting the public opinion. The importance and magnitude of the rural mobilizations between 1959 and 1963 generated a controversy on their political effects in the agrarian change. Certainly, the rural mobilizations influenced in the outcome that took the political crisis, which concluded in the implantation of a military government in 1963. This government issued an Agrarian Reform Law in 1964, which modified partially the working relations and the land ownership. And, in addition, it defined a new type of military intervention in the policies that combined repression with reforms. The existence of a landowner social segment that backed a reform in the rural highland (sierra) society has been generally identified by Galo Plaza's figure. In his government (1948-1952), transformations were accentuated in the State intervention, mainly orientated towards the economic and political modernization. This was a new moment of coastal agro-exportation development with the leadership of the banana production. There were stimulated measures of promotion of the production and exportation of bananas. So, the road infrastructure was intensively spread and connected the producing zones with the export ports...

Campos de Deméter: da impossibilidade de separar a ciência, a ética e a estética na hermenêutica da paisagem

Central conceptual terms, such as ‘culture’, ‘environment’, ‘nature’ and ‘landscape’, are far from being neutral scientific objects. They are academic constructions which need to be understood in their emergence across their historic contexts. Morality is a cultural expression determined by social domination and historical context, which gives it a sectary character. We need a moral theory that can be universal, timeless and that is able to guide the individual conduct, science and political ideologies, without considering the man the zenith of Life. Life, with its biodiversity, is only the tip of a complex Cosmos evolution, but we don’t know if our species, born on planet Earth, are the final link in the Cosmos evolution. To answer all these questions, a new ethical perspective was born, a theory built upon the principles of meta-ethics and applicable to all human activities. Environmental ethics are supported by two principles – the critique against anthropocentrism and the critique against ethnocentrism, giving a universal answer to the macro moral problems of our era – environmental, social, economical and political crisis, war and weapons of mass destruction… And contributes towards rebuilding the human activities in all domains of individual and social life.

Cameron’s reality check on Europe. EPIN [Working] Paper No. 38, 15 April 2014

Ever since Prime Minister David Cameron made his major speech on Europe on 23 January 2013, in which he argued for some kind of new deal between the UK and the EU, the rest of the EU as well as the British public have been wondering what he would actually propose in operational terms. On 15 March 2014, the Prime Minister offered at least an interim reply to these questions in an article in the Daily Telegraph newspaper. This paper extracts from the Daily Telegraph article the main ideas that the Prime Minister advances. In all, 10 propositions are identified, presented in the precise language used, followed by an appraisal. The article has not attracted so much attention, mainly because its content is not particularly sensational, but that is its real importance and quality. It points the way towards resolving what otherwise would mean a huge political crisis for the UK and the EU. The Prime Minister gave the overall impression that he is not now heading towards making an impossibly difficult list of demands. On the contrary, an informed and moderate realism seems to be in the making. The package outlined in this paper could be sold in Brussels. There would then have to be a robust communications campaign to sell it to the British public. This paper is part of a series for a CEPS-EPIN project on “The British Question and the Search for a Fresh European Narrative”, which is pegged to an ambitious ongoing exercise by the British government to review all the competences of the European Union. The intention is that this should provide a basis for informed debate before the referendum on the UK remaining in the EU or not, which is scheduled for 2017.

Ukraine in deadlock - What next? EPC Commentary, 12 February 2014

Some two months since Ukrainians took to the streets, a political solution to the standoff between the EuroMaidan protestors and the Ukrainian authorities remains out of reach, with the situation on the ground remaining volatile. As the clock ticks there is fear that further violence and instability could be on the horizon. Further turmoil risks Ukraine’s territorial integrity, with talk of division and calls for Moscow to intervene coming from a number of Party of Regions speakers. It also increases the likelihood of new security threats going beyond Ukraine’s border including refugees and asylum seekers. Furthermore, as the political crisis deepens, Ukraine’s economic situation becomes more perilous with the chances of default on its debts rising.

Ukrainians' EU migration prospects. OSW Commentary No. 128, 10.03.2014.

The political crisis in Ukraine, particularly the bloodshed seen on 18–20 February and the subsequent Russian intervention in Crimea, has sparked fears of another possible wave of immigrants heading to the EU. However, the country was partially politically stabilised (at least in its central and western parts), and this has made the scenario of a mass migration of people from Ukraine rather unlikely. If there is no civil war in Ukraine, any further development of the political situation in Ukraine may have only an indirect impact on the actual migration. Should the political instability continue, the Ukrainian economy remain in recession while jobs are available for Ukrainian immigrants in the EU, then an increase in the migration of Ukrainian citizens to the EU, including Poland, would be possible. In the short term there may be two characteristic groups of immigrants: (1) young people who will attempt to leave Ukraine for good due to the lack of job opportunities; (2) circulating migrants, mainly from western Ukraine, who will be looking for temporary jobs. Only if the economic downturn trend and political turmoil in Ukraine continues for a longer time, will settlement migration increase.

Jihad vs The New Great Game: Paradoxes of militant Islamic threats in Central Asia. OSW Point of View (Policy Brief), January 2010

Threats linked to Islamic fundamentalism have been hanging over Central Asia for almost two decades. Many believe that militant Islam has played a significant part in each major political crisis in the region, and Central Asia is perceived as an almost perfect environment for its further development. Such a picture of this region is a result of serious abuses and manipulations. The real threat posed by militant Islam seems to be rather limited, and its roots lie outside Central Asia. This region is unlikely to become a key front of global jihad. Nevertheless, this does not guarantee peace and safety in Central Asia, as the Islamic threat remains an element of the geopolitical rivalry in the region – the ‘New Great Game’.

On the periphery of global jihad. The North Caucasus: the illusion of stabilisation. OSW Point of View Number 45, November 2014

The situation in the North Caucasus has stabilised, in comparison with previous years, mainly as regards the activity of the Islamic military underground. This is an effect of ideological changes among the militants which have led to a dilution of the Caucasian armed struggle and its marginalisation in global jihad, since top priority has been granted to the Middle Eastern front. The factors which have contributed to this stabilisation are the organisational crisis in the Caucasus Emirate and the outflux of militants to the Middle East, as well the successful ‘carrot and stick’ policy adopted by Moscow. However, the partial stabilisation in the Caucasus is inherently precarious, being a contingent outcome of the situation rather than the result of systemic change. The region’s pressing problems remain unresolved; and these problems are generating chronic instability and cauing the Caucasus to drift away from Russia in civilisational terms. An economic or political crisis in the Russian Federation may result in the conflicts in the Caucasus unfreezing, including a reactivation of the idea of Chechen independence as well as the idea of the Caucasus Emirate, which is a part of global jihad.

The Central European Predicament. Jean Monnet/Robert Schuman Paper Series Vol. 14 No. 9, May 2014

From Introduction. Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) has experienced a very deep economic and political transformation since the beginning of the nineties. The early years of transition were characterized by big hopes for a quick and successful development. The international community, including the EU and the USA showed interest in the transformation of the region for a number of reasons. From a geopolitical perspective, the transformation was of tremendous importance as it confirmed the end of the cold war and the bipolar global system was replaced first by a unipolar superpower system and later gave way to a multipolar or a new bipolar system. This also signaled the weakness of the Soviet Union (and later Russia), as it was not able to prevent this transformation and was soon mired in a serious and long lasting economic and political crisis that undermined its international position. After the dissolution of the Soviet Union during the nineties Russia remained very weak, both economically and politically. The power vacuum and the transformation in Central Europe made the establishment of a new international economic and security structure possible. The new economic and political pattern that started to develop within the region was based on the liberal market economy model, with the objective of opening up markets and integrating the region into the world economy and the North Atlantic security structure.

Flashlight Europe N°7–09 July 2015. Greece After the Referendum: Three Possible Scenarios for the Euro Area

About ten days ago Alexis Tsipras, the Greek prime minister, announced that there was going to be a referendum, and thus terminated the negotiations on a new rescue package unilaterally. Since then the euro area has been plunged into a wholly unprecedented political crisis. Whether or not Greece can re-main in the monetary union is more uncertain than ever, and decisions that can give a new twist to the political and financial situation are being made almost every day. The Greek banks have been closed for over a week. The economic data are deteriorating rapidly. And yet a solution is nowhere to be seen. The No vote in the Greek referendum has not exactly improved the chances of reaching an agree-ment. For the time being the positions seem to have become uncompromising. At the summit of the heads of state and government on 7 July the Greek government was given five days and a “final deadline” in order to come up with viable proposals for reform. Thus the next few days are of crucial im-portance. At the weekend the heads of state and government of all 28 EU member states are going to meet in order to decide the future of Greece. This flashlight europe provides an overview of the events of the last few days, outlines possible scenarios for what may happen in the near future, and identifies factors which may exert an influence in the short term. We are not trying to give an exact forecast or to formulate action recommendations. But we are trying to shed some light on a confusing situation by identifying important patterns and some of the salient factors.

Les coalitions politiques et l'orientation du changement économique et politique aux États-Unis : la Grande Dépression et la Grande Récession comparées.

Ce mémoire s’intéresse au concept de crise, économique et politique, comme source de changement idéologique et politique. Au travers de l’étude de l’austérité économique, il sera possible d’identifier des différences majeures entre deux épisodes de troubles économiques importants, la Grande Dépression et la Grande Récession. Alors que la Grande Dépression est caractérisée par une double crise, économique et politique, la Grande Récession, elle, demeure un choc essentiellement économique. L’absence de contagion dans le système politique explique la ténacité d’une idée comme l’austérité, de retour depuis la révolution néolibérale des années 80. L’austérité économique s’est adaptée et s’aligne maintenant aux intérêts d’une frange importante de la coalition démocrate. La persistance de l’allure des coalitions politiques depuis le dernier grand réalignement témoigne de l’absence de transformation majeure du mode d’action étatique, ce qui constitue une différence importante entre les deux crises.

RELIGIÃO PROFÉTICA E CRISE POLÍTICA: Um estudo da sociedade norte-israelita à luz de Oséias 9,1-9.

Com o desenvolvimento deste projeto de pesquisa Religião profética e crise política: estudo da sociedade norte-israelita à luz de Oséias 9,1-9 queremos identificar que momento de crise foi essa pelo qual passou a sociedade norte-israelita no século VIII a.C., e qual seria o background oseânico que teria funcionado como um verdadeiro leitmotiv em sua vida profética. Ao invés de partirmos de uma regressão, i.é., de um estudo dedutivo (método descendente), devido à falta de material e também pela complexidade do trabalho, farei o inverso, partirei da teoria que hoje é plenamente aceita no meio acadêmico. Fundado numa metodologia que privilegia os resultados obtidos a partir dos mais rigorosos dados historiográficos métodos históricos críticos e pesquisas arqueológicas este projeto de pesquisa utilizará o método indutivo, i.é., partiremos de um processo ascendente. O desafio está em delinear a trajetória autonômica da monarquia norte-israelita, procurando estabelecer quais foram os momentos mais marcantes desta caminhada histórica, suscetíveis de forjar a manifestação de profetas como Amós, Oséias, Miquéias e tantos outros. Como objeto principal de nossa pesquisa, o foco estará sobre o profeta Oséias que soube como nenhum outro antes dele, fazer uma síntese entre religião e vida, i.é., soube desenvolver critérios éticos que serviram como parâmetro avaliativo de pureza da religião javista

Evaluating productive efficiency:comparative study of commercial banks in Gulf countries

Financial institutes are an integral part of any modern economy. In the 1970s and 1980s, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries made significant progress in financial deepening and in building a modern financial infrastructure. This study aims to evaluate the performance (efficiency) of financial institutes (banking sector) in GCC countries. Since, the selected variables include negative data for some banks and positive for others, and the available evaluation methods are not helpful in this case, so we developed a Semi Oriented Radial Model to perform this evaluation. Furthermore, since the SORM evaluation result provides a limited information for any decision maker (bankers, investors, etc...), we proposed a second stage analysis using classification and regression (C&R) method to get further results combining SORM results with other environmental data (Financial, economical and political) to set rules for the efficient banks, hence, the results will be useful for bankers in order to improve their bank performance and to the investors, maximize their returns. Mainly there are two approaches to evaluate the performance of Decision Making Units (DMUs), under each of them there are different methods with different assumptions. Parametric approach is based on the econometric regression theory and nonparametric approach is based on a mathematical linear programming theory. Under the nonparametric approaches, there are two methods: Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and Free Disposal Hull (FDH). While there are three methods under the parametric approach: Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA); Thick Frontier Analysis (TFA) and Distribution-Free Analysis (DFA). The result shows that DEA and SFA are the most applicable methods in banking sector, but DEA is seem to be most popular between researchers. However DEA as SFA still facing many challenges, one of these challenges is how to deal with negative data, since it requires the assumption that all the input and output values are non-negative, while in many applications negative outputs could appear e.g. losses in contrast with profit. Although there are few developed Models under DEA to deal with negative data but we believe that each of them has it is own limitations, therefore we developed a Semi-Oriented-Radial-Model (SORM) that could handle the negativity issue in DEA. The application result using SORM shows that the overall performance of GCC banking is relatively high (85.6%). Although, the efficiency score is fluctuated over the study period (1998-2007) due to the second Gulf War and to the international financial crisis, but still higher than the efficiency score of their counterpart in other countries. Banks operating in Saudi Arabia seem to be the highest efficient banks followed by UAE, Omani and Bahraini banks, while banks operating in Qatar and Kuwait seem to be the lowest efficient banks; this is because these two countries are the most affected country in the second Gulf War. Also, the result shows that there is no statistical relationship between the operating style (Islamic or Conventional) and bank efficiency. Even though there is no statistical differences due to the operational style, but Islamic bank seem to be more efficient than the Conventional bank, since on average their efficiency score is 86.33% compare to 85.38% for Conventional banks. Furthermore, the Islamic banks seem to be more affected by the political crisis (second Gulf War), whereas Conventional banks seem to be more affected by the financial crisis.