The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment

Advances in the science and observation of climate change are providing a clearer understanding of the inherent variability of Earth’s climate system and its likely response to human and natural influences. The implications of climate change for the environment and society will depend not only on the response of the Earth system to changes in radiative forcings, but also on how humankind responds through changes in technology, economies, lifestyle and policy. Extensive uncertainties exist in future forcings of and responses to climate change, necessitating the use of scenarios of the future to explore the potential consequences of different response options. To date, such scenarios have not adequately examined crucial possibilities, such as climate change mitigation and adaptation, and have relied on research processes that slowed the exchange of information among physical, biological and social scientists. Here we describe a new process for creating plausible scenarios to investigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the global community

Pensamos que somos historia porque sabemos que somos historia: context, self and self-construction in women's testimonial writing from revolutionary Cuba

This article presents a group of women-authored testimonial texts published between 1959–1989 in revolutionary Cuba. Despite the recent scholarly debates within Latin American Cultural Studies regarding Latin American testimonio, these texts have received little or no critical or theoretical attention within or outside Cuba. The article therefore starts by situating them within the specific context of revolutionary culture, especially with reference to questions of gender, genre and publication. Having established that the texts as a whole privilege the collective revolutionary context and revolutionary experience over gendered or generic aspects, the seven texts are then grouped under a more specific contextual category, as narratives of voluntary work (participation and observation), in order to provide a clearer structure for their description and analysis. Each of the texts is then described within its sub-group, and the article ends by indicating how such texts challenge testimonio paradigms by positing a relational notion of subjectivity.

Neurocognitive control in dance perception and performance

Dance is a rich source of material for researchers interested in the integration of movement and cognition. The multiple aspects of embodied cognition involved in performing and perceiving dance have inspired scientists to use dance as a means for studying motor control, expertise, and action-perception links. The aim of this review is to present basic research on cognitive and neural processes implicated in the execution, expression, and observation of dance, and to bring into relief contemporary issues and open research questions. The review addresses six topics: 1) dancers’ exemplary motor control, in terms of postural control, equilibrium maintenance, and stabilization; 2) how dancers’ timing and on-line synchronization are influenced by attention demands and motor experience; 3) the critical roles played by sequence learning and memory; 4) how dancers make strategic use of visual and motor imagery; 5) the insights into the neural coupling between action and perception yielded through exploration of the brain architecture mediating dance observation; and 6) a neuroaesthetics perspective that sheds new light on the way audiences perceive and evaluate dance expression. Current and emerging issues are presented regarding future directions that will facilitate the ongoing dialogue between science and dance.

Resolution and discrimination - two sides of the same coin

The notions of resolution and discrimination of probability forecasts are revisited. It is argued that the common concept underlying both resolution and discrimination is the dependence (in the sense of probability theory) of forecasts and observations. More specifically, a forecast has no resolution if and only if it has no discrimination if and only if forecast and observation are stochastically independent. A statistical tests for independence is thus also a test for no resolution and, at the same time, for no discrimination. The resolution term in the decomposition of the logarithmic scoring rule, and the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic will be investigated in this light.

Impact of cyclones on sea ice in the Fram Strait: numerical simulations and observations

The sea ice export from the Arctic is of global importance due to its fresh water which influences the oceanic stratification and, thus, the global thermohaline circulation. This study deals with the effect of cyclones on sea ice and sea ice transport in particular on the basis of observations from two field experiments FRAMZY 1999 and FRAMZY 2002 in April 1999 and March 2002 as well as on the basis of simulations with a numerical sea ice model. The simulations realised by a dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice model are forced with 6-hourly atmospheric ECMWF- analyses (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) and 6-hourly oceanic data of a MPI-OM-simulation (Max-Planck-Institute Ocean Model). Comparing the observed and simulated variability of the sea ice drift and of the position of the ice edge shows that the chosen configuration of the model is appropriate for the performed studies. The seven observed cyclones change the position of the ice edge up to 100 km and cause an extensive decrease of sea ice coverage by 2 % up to more than 10 %. The decrease is only simulated by the model if the ocean current is strongly divergent in the centre of the cyclone. The impact is remarkable of the ocean current on divergence and shear deformation of the ice drift. As shown by sensitivity studies the ocean current at a depth of 6 m – the sea ice model is forced with – is mainly responsible for the ascertained differences between simulation and observation. The simulated sea ice transport shows a strong variability on a time scale from hours to days. Local minima occur in the time series of the ice transport during periods with Fram Strait cyclones. These minima are not caused by the local effect of the cyclone’s wind field, but mainly by the large-scale pattern of surface pressure. A displacement of the areas of strongest cyclone activity in the Nordic Seas would considerably influence the ice transport.

Precipitation diurnal cycle and summer climatology assessment over South America: An evaluation of Regional Climate Model version 3 simulations

Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3) simulations of 17 summers (1988-2004) over part of South America south of 5 degrees S were evaluated to identify model systematic errors. Model results were compared to different rainfall data sets (Climate Research Unit (CRU), Climate Prediction Center (CPC), Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis), including the five summers mean (1998-2002) precipitation diurnal cycle observed by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)-Precipitation Radar (PR). In spite of regional differences, the RegCM3 simulates the main observed aspects of summer climatology associated with the precipitation (northwest-southeast band of South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ)) and air temperature (warmer air in the central part of the continent and colder in eastern Brazil and the Andes Mountains). At a regional scale, the main RegCM3 failures are the underestimation of the precipitation in the northern branch of the SACZ and some unrealistic intense precipitation around the Andes Mountains. However, the RegCM3 seasonal precipitation is closer to the fine-scale analyses (CPC, CRU, and TRMM-PR) than is the NCEP reanalysis, which presents an incorrect north-south orientation of SACZ and an overestimation of its intensity. The precipitation diurnal cycle observed by TRMM-PR shows pronounced contrasts between Tropics and Extratropics and land and ocean, where most of these features are simulated by RegCM3. The major similarities between the simulation and observation, especially the diurnal cycle phase, are found over the continental tropical and subtropical SACZ regions, which present afternoon maximum (1500-1800 UTC) and morning minimum (0900-1200 UTC). More specifically, over the core of SACZ, the phase and amplitude of the simulated precipitation diurnal cycle are very close to the TRMM-PR observations. Although there are amplitude differences, the RegCM3 simulates the observed nighttime rainfall in the eastern Andes Mountains, over the Atlantic Ocean, and also over northern Argentina. The main simulation deficiencies are found in the Atlantic Ocean and near the Andes Mountains. Over the Atlantic Ocean the convective scheme is not triggered; thus the rainfall arises from the grid-scale scheme and therefore differs from the TRMM-PR. Near the Andes, intense (nighttime and daytime) simulated precipitation could be a response of an incorrect circulation and topographic uplift. Finally, it is important to note that unlike most reported bias of global models, RegCM3 does not trigger the moist convection just after sunrise over the southern part of the Amazon.

Efficiency of wear and decalcification technique for estimating the age of estuarine dolphin Sotalia guianensis

Most techniques used for estimating the age of Sotalia guianensis (van B,n,den, 1864) (Cetacea; Delphinidae) are very expensive, and require sophisticated equipment for preparing histological sections of teeth. The objective of this study was to test a more affordable and much simpler method, involving of the manual wear of teeth followed by decalcification and observation under a stereomicroscope. This technique has been employed successfully with larger species of Odontoceti. Twenty-six specimens were selected, and one tooth of each specimen was worn and demineralized for growth layers reading. Growth layers were evidenced in all specimens; however, in 4 of the 26 teeth, not all the layers could be clearly observed. In these teeth, there was a significant decrease of growth layer group thickness, thus hindering the layers count. The juxtaposition of layers hindered the reading of larger numbers of layers by the wear and decalcification technique. Analysis of more than 17 layers in a single tooth proved inconclusive. The method applied here proved to be efficient in estimating the age of Sotalia guianensis individuals younger than 18 years. This method could simplify the study of the age structure of the overall population, and allows the use of the more expensive methodologies to be confined to more specific studies of older specimens. It also enables the classification of the calf, young and adult classes, which is important for general population studies.

Where did all these books come from? The Publishing Industry and American Intellectual Life

The American book publishing industry shapes the character of American intellectual life. While the newspaper and television industries have been accused of and investigated for bias and lowering America’s intellectual standards, book publishing has gone largely unexamined by scholars. The existing studies of the publishing industry have focused on finance, procedure and history. “There are few ‘theories’ of publishing – efforts to understand the ‘whys’ as well as the ‘hows.’ Few scholarly scientists have devoted significant scholarly attention to publishing” (Altbach and Hoshino, xiii). There are many possible reasons for this lacuna. First, there is a perception that books have always been around, that they are an “old” technology and therefore they don’t appear to have had as much of an impact on our society as television and other media (which were developed quickly and suddenly) seem to have had (Altbach and Hoshino, xiv). Also, despite books’ present and past popularity, television, radio, and now the internet reach more people more easily, and are therefore more topical points of study and observation. In studying the effects of mass media on everyday American life, television and the internet may be the most logical points of study. Regarding public intellectual life however, books play a much more important role. Public intellectual life has always been associated with independent thinkers publishing their work for the masses. For this reason, this I focus on trade publishing. Trade publishing produces fiction and non-fiction works for the general reading public, as opposed to technical manuals, textbooks, and other fiction and nonfiction books targeted to small and specific audiences. Although, quantitatively speaking, “the largest part of book publishing business is embodied in that great complex of companies and activities producing educational, business, scientific, technical, and reference books and materials,” (Tebbel 1987, 439) the trade industry publishes most of the books that most people read. It is the most public segment of the industry, and the most likely place to find public intellectualism. Trade publishing is not only the most public segment of the industry, but it is also the most susceptible to corruption and lowered intellectual standards. Unlike specialty publishing, which caters to a specific, known segment of society, trade publishers must compete with countless other publications, as well as with other forms of media, for the patronage of the general public. As John Tebbel (author of a widely referenced history of the publishing industry) puts it, “The textbook, scientific, or technical book is subjected to much more rigorous scrutiny by buyers and users, and in an intensively competitive market inferior products are quickly lost" (Tebbel 1987, xiv). Since the standards for trade publishing are not nearly as specific – trade books simply need to catch the attention of a significant number of readers, they don’t have to measure up to a given level of quality – the quality of trade books is much more variable. And yet, a successful trade publication can have a much greater impact on society than the most rigorously researched and edited textbook or scholarly study.

Geographic Distribution and Population Estimate of Leaf-cutting Ants of the Genus Acromyrmex (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) in Southwestern Bahia

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Dynamics of some fictitious satellites of Venus and Mars

The dynamics of some fictitious satellites of Venus and Mars are studied considering only solar perturbation and the oblateness of the planet, as disturbing forces. Several numerical integrations of the averaged system, taking different values of the obliquity of ecliptic (a), show the existence of strong chaotic motion, provided that the semi major axis is near a critical value. As a consequence, large increase of eccentricities occur and the satellites may collide with the planet or cross possible internal orbits. Even starting from almost circular and equatorial orbits, most satellites can easily reach prohibitive values. The extension of the chaotic zone depends clearly on the value ε, so that, previous regular regions may become chaotic, provided ε increases sufficiently. © 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of mandibular fixed implant-supported prostheses on masticatory and swallowing functions in completely edentulous elderly individuals

Purpose: To evaluate the effect of oral rehabilitation with immediately loaded fixed implant-supported mandibular prostheses on chewing and swallowing in elderly individuals. Materials and Methods: Fifteen completely edentulous patients aged more than 60 years (10 women and rive men), wearing removable dentures in both arches, had a mandibular denture replaced by an implant-supported prosthesis. All individuals were evaluated before surgery and again 3, 6, and 18 months later with regard to mastication and swallowing conditions. Examinations entailed an interview, evaluation of tactile sensitivity of the face, and observation of food intake, masticatory type, formations of bolus, and pain during mastication. The swallowing evaluation comprised observation of clinical signs related to the oral and pharyngeal stages of swallowing, as well as the presence of oral residue. The findings of different evaluations before and 3, 6, and 18 months after the surgical-prosthetic procedure were statistically compared by analysis of variance for repeated measurements at a significance level of 5%. Results: The questionnaire revealed a reduction in complaints of masticatory and swallowing disturbances, a decreased need for liquid ingestion, and reduced choking and coughing. Clinical evaluations showed improved oral function and bolus propulsion for both solid and paste-consistency foods; pain during mastication was also resolved. Conclusion: Treatment with mandibular implant-supported dentures had positive effects on the clinical aspects of mastication and swallowing in elderly individuals.

Water availability determines the richness and density of fig trees within Brazilian semideciduous forest landscapes

The success of fig trees in tropical ecosystems is evidenced by the great diversity (+750 species) and wide geographic distribution of the genus. We assessed the contribution of environmental variables on the species richness and density of fig trees in fragments of seasonal semideciduous forest (SSF) in Brazil. We assessed 20 forest fragments in three regions in Sao Paulo State, Brazil. Fig tree richness and density was estimated in rectangular plots, comprising 31.4 ha sampled. Both richness and fig tree density were linearly modeled as function of variables representing (1) fragment metrics, (2) forest structure, and (3) landscape metrics expressing water drainage in the fragments. Model selection was performed by comparing the AIC values (Akaike Information Criterion) and the relative weight of each model (wAIC). Both species richness and fig tree density were better explained by the water availability in the fragment (meter of streams/ha): wAICrichness = 0.45, wAICdensity = 0.96. The remaining variables related to anthropic perturbation and forest structure were of little weight in the models. The rainfall seasonality in SSF seems to select for both establishment strategies and morphological adaptations in the hemiepiphytic fig tree species. In the studied SSF, hemiepiphytes established at lower heights in their host trees than reported for fig trees in evergreen rainforests. Some hemiepiphytic fig species evolved superficial roots extending up to 100 m from their trunks, resulting in hectare-scale root zones that allow them to efficiently forage water and soil nutrients. The community of fig trees was robust to variation in forest structure and conservation level of SSF fragments, making this group of plants an important element for the functioning of seasonal tropical forests. © 2013 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Remodeling of cortical and corticocancellous fresh-frozen allogeneic block bone grafts - a radiographic and histomorphometric comparison to autologous bone grafts

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Potential vorticity conserving flows and vortex-wave interaction : the role of vertical velocity and isopycnal diffusion on plankton heterogeneity

Programa de doctorado de oceanografía

Study of Venturia inaequalis sensitivity to fungicides through molecular and biological methodologies

This study was aimed to correlate the results of relative germination from in vitro tests by trifloxystrobin with those of qPCR on a wide range of V. inaequalis populations and monoconidial isolates. Samples were collected in Italian and Turkish distinct locations from orchards with different scab management. In this study, an allele-specific qPCR with primer sets designed was successfully developed to quantitatively determine the frequency of QoI-resistant allele G143A in populations and monoconidial isolates of V. inaequalis. qPCR followed a similar pattern to that obtained using in vitro conidial germination test in very sensitive and very resistant populations. However, the variability between two test results was observed in hetereogenous populations. Therefore, the results of correlations between in vitro and qPCR showed a positive but not very high correlation for Venturia inaequalis populations (R2=0.70). On the contrary, this correlation between two assessment methods was very high for monoconidial isolates (R2=0.92). Results obtained in quantitative PCR and from traditional spore germination assay differed for the same fungal population and in some cases, it is difficult to assess the resistance in the field by only qPCR. It was concluded that it is not always possible to correlate the frequency of detection of the mutation with biological assessment. In such situations, monitoring by molecular techniques must be supported by standard in vitro resistance assessments and observation of field performance in order to have correct conclusions.