Drivers of technology substitution : successive generations of high tech products

Principal Topic High technology consumer products such as notebooks, digital cameras and DVD players are not introduced into a vacuum. Consumer experience with related earlier generation technologies, such as PCs, film cameras and VCRs, and the installed base of these products strongly impacts the market diffusion of the new generation products. Yet technology substitution has received only sparse attention in the diffusion of innovation literature. Research for consumer durables has been dominated by studies of (first purchase) adoption (c.f. Bass 1969) which do not explicitly consider the presence of an existing product/technology. More recently, considerable attention has also been given to replacement purchases (c.f. Kamakura and Balasubramanian 1987). Only a handful of papers explicitly deal with the diffusion of technology/product substitutes (e.g. Norton and Bass, 1987: Bass and Bass, 2004). They propose diffusion-type aggregate-level sales models that are used to forecast the overall sales for successive generations. Lacking household data, these aggregate models are unable to give insights into the decisions by individual households - whether to adopt generation II, and if so, when and why. This paper makes two contributions. It is the first large-scale empirical study that collects household data for successive generations of technologies in an effort to understand the drivers of adoption. Second, in comparision to traditional analysis that evaluates technology substitution as an ''adoption of innovation'' type process, we propose that from a consumer's perspective, technology substitution combines elements of both adoption (adopting the new generation technology) and replacement (replacing the generation I product with generation II). Based on this proposition, we develop and test a number of hypotheses. Methodology/Key Propositions In some cases, successive generations are clear ''substitutes'' for the earlier generation, in that they have almost identical functionality. For example, successive generations of PCs Pentium I to II to III or flat screen TV substituting for colour TV. More commonly, however, the new technology (generation II) is a ''partial substitute'' for existing technology (generation I). For example, digital cameras substitute for film-based cameras in the sense that they perform the same core function of taking photographs. They have some additional attributes of easier copying and sharing of images. However, the attribute of image quality is inferior. In cases of partial substitution, some consumers will purchase generation II products as substitutes for their generation I product, while other consumers will purchase generation II products as additional products to be used as well as their generation I product. We propose that substitute generation II purchases combine elements of both adoption and replacement, but additional generation II purchases are solely adoption-driven process. Extensive research on innovation adoption has consistently shown consumer innovativeness is the most important consumer characteristic that drives adoption timing (Goldsmith et al. 1995; Gielens and Steenkamp 2007). Hence, we expect consumer innovativeness also to influence both additional and substitute generation II purchases. Hypothesis 1a) More innovative households will make additional generation II purchases earlier. 1 b) More innovative households will make substitute generation II purchases earlier. 1 c) Consumer innovativeness will have a stronger impact on additional generation II purchases than on substitute generation II purchases. As outlined above, substitute generation II purchases act, in part like a replacement purchase for the generation I product. Prior research (Bayus 1991; Grewal et al 2004) identified product age as the most dominant factor influencing replacements. Hence, we hypothesise that: Hypothesis 2: Households with older generation I products will make substitute generation II purchases earlier. Our survey of 8,077 households investigates their adoption of two new generation products: notebooks as a technology change to PCs, and DVD players as a technology shift from VCRs. We employ Cox hazard modelling to study factors influencing the timing of a household's adoption of generation II products. We determine whether this is an additional or substitute purchase by asking whether the generation I product is still used. A separate hazard model is conducted for additional and substitute purchases. Consumer Innovativeness is measured as domain innovativeness adapted from the scales of Goldsmith and Hofacker (1991) and Flynn et al. (1996). The age of the generation I product is calculated based on the most recent household purchase of that product. Control variables include age, size and income of household, and age and education of primary decision-maker. Results and Implications Our preliminary results confirm both our hypotheses. Consumer innovativeness has a strong influence on both additional purchases (exp = 1.11) and substitute purchases (exp = 1.09). Exp is interpreted as the increased probability of purchase for an increase of 1.0 on a 7-point innovativeness scale. Also consistent with our hypotheses, the age of the generation I product has a dramatic influence for substitute purchases of VCR/DVD (exp = 2.92) and a strong influence for PCs/notebooks (exp = 1.30). Exp is interpreted as the increased probability of purchase for an increase of 10 years in the age of the generation I product. Yet, also as hypothesised, there was no influence on additional purchases. The results lead to two key implications. First, there is a clear distinction between additional and substitute purchases of generation II products, each with different drivers. Treating these as a single process will mask the true drivers of adoption. For substitute purchases, product age is a key driver. Hence, implications for marketers of high technology products can utilise data on generation I product age (e.g. from warranty or loyalty programs) to target customers who are more likely to make a purchase.

The future face of school guidance and counselling : what will it look like in 25 years?

The author undertook a qualitative and quantitative survey of 130 guidance counsellors and primary school principles focusing on perceptions of what school guidance and counselling will be like in 25 years. Generally the participants held similar beliefs and were bullish about employment prospects.

Is there something quantum-like about the human mental lexicon?

Following an early claim by Nelson & McEvoy suggesting that word associations can display `spooky action at a distance behaviour', a serious investigation of the potentially quantum nature of such associations is currently underway. In this paper quantum theory is proposed as a framework suitable for modelling the mental lexicon, specifically the results obtained from both intralist and extralist word association experiments. Some initial models exploring this hypothesis are discussed, and they appear to be capable of substantial agreement with pre-existing experimental data. The paper concludes with a discussion of some experiments that will be performed in order to test these models.

AITPM Email Newsletter Volume 0902, February 2009: Presidents Message

President’s Report Hello fellow AITPM members, Welcome to the first edition of the AITPM National Newsletter for 2009! I trust we all had a relaxing break and managed to lose track of all things transport for just a little while. I know I had trouble doing so when hunting for a car space at the shopping centre, and experiencing new projects such as the Tugun Bypass – the new gateway between New South Wales and Queensland. Byron Bay is now as close as Noosa for those high profile beach goers of Brisbane. There was also my experience of the reduced posted speed of 90km/h on the Bruce Highway around the troublesome Gympie stretch, when returning from a short Fraser Coast holiday. I expect that this relatively inexpensive safety improvement will pay substantial dividends in terms of crash reduction. The Newsletter took its annual leave last month and is refreshed and ready for a new year to keep us all informed of the latest in traffic and transport engineering, planning and management. I would like to take this opportunity to acknowledge the ongoing significant contributions of many volunteers in the Newsletter’s production. Mr Andrew Hulse, AITPM’s Immediate Past National President, serves as the Editorial Coordinator on behalf of the Institute. Each Branch Committee also includes a Newsletter Coordinator and committee members frequently contribute as well. And the ongoing contributions of readers enable us to offer the Newsletter as a vehicle for dialogue and debate around our sector. If you would like to contribute please email AITPM’s administration officer Josephine Mitton at aitpm@aitpm.com or through your local Branch Committee. I would also like to welcome back on deck our Editor, Mr David Brown of Driven Media, who creates a fantastic package for us each month. Lastly, members would have received the Call for Papers for the AITPM 2009 National Conference, Traffic Beyond Tomorrow, to be held at the Adelaide Convention Centre between 5 – 7 August. Abstracts will be accepted up to 20 February 2009. We look forward to seeing everyone at this, our flagship event for the year. To all a good year ahead, Jon Bunker Post Script: We all will have seen through the media the enormous scale and nature of the two natural disasters Australia is experiencing at present. AITPM’s thoughts are with all of those members, family and friends who may be experiencing hardship as a result of the Victorian bushfires and North Queensland floods. AITPM is a not for profit organisation however the National Executive has taken the decision to donate in measure to the Red Cross Victorian Bushfire Disaster Relief fund and the Queensland Premier’s Disaster Relief fund as a gesture to support our fellow Australians in their time of need. Details about these funds can be found via the Victorian and Queensland Governments’ websites.

Social effects on coworker reliance and individual contributions to intercultural teams

Which social perceptions and structures shape coworker reliance and contributions to team products? When people form an intercultural team, they launch a set of working relationships that may be affected by social perceptions and social structures. Social perceptions include beliefs about interpersonal similarity and also expectations of behavior based on professional and national memberships. Social structures include dyadic relationships and the patterns they form. In this study, graduate students from three cohorts were consistently more likely to rely on others with whom they had a professional relationship, while structural equivalence in the professional network had no effect. In only one of the cohorts, people were more likely to rely on others who were professionally similar to themselves. Expectations regarding professional or national groups had no effect on willingness to rely on members of those groups, but expectations regarding teammates' nations positively influenced individual contributions. Willingness to rely on one's teammates did not significantly influence individual contributions to the team. Number of professional ties to teammates increased individual contributions, and number of external ties decreased contributions. Finally, people whose professional networks included a mixture of brokerage and closure (higher ego network variance) made greater contributions to their teams.

Psychopathology during childhood and adolescence predicts delusional-like experiences in adults : a 21-year birth cohort study

Objective: Community surveys have shown that many otherwise well individuals report delusional-like experiences. The authors examined psychopathology during childhood and adolescence as a predictor of delusional-like experiences in young adulthood. ---------- Method: The authors analyzed prospective data from the Mater-University of Queensland Study of Pregnancy, a birth cohort of 3,617 young adults born between 1981 and 1983. Psychopathology was measured at ages 5 and 14 using the Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL) and at age 14 using the Youth Self-Report (YSR). Delusional-like experiences were measured at age 21 using the Peters Delusional Inventory. The association between childhood and adolescent symptoms and later delusional-like experiences was examined using logistic regression. ---------- Results: High CBCL scores at ages 5 and 14 predicted high levels of delusional-like experiences at age 21 (odds ratios for the highest versus the other quartiles combined were 1.25 and 1.85, respectively). Those with YSR scores in the highest quartile at age 14 were nearly four times as likely to have high levels of delusional-like experiences at age 21 (odds ratio=3.71). Adolescent-onset psychopathology and continuous psychopathology through both childhood and adolescence strongly predicted delusional-like experiences at age 21. Hallucinations at age 14 were significantly associated with delusional-like experiences at age 21. The general pattern of associations persisted when adjusted for previous drug use or the presence of nonaffective psychoses at age 21. ---------- Conclusion: Psychopathology during childhood and adolescence predicts adult delusional-like experiences. Understanding the biological and psychosocial factors that influence this developmental trajectory may provide clues to the pathogenesis of psychotic-like experiences.

Is the new age phenomenon connected to delusion-like experiences? Analysis of survey data from Australia

Recent studies have shown that delusion-like experiences (DLEs) are common among general populations. This study investigates whether the prevalence of these experiences are linked to the embracing of New Age thought. Logistic regression analyses were performed using data derived from a large community sample of young adults (N = 3777). Belief in a spiritual or higher power other than God was found to be significantly associated with endorsement of 16 of 19 items from Peters et al. (1999b) Delusional Inventory following adjustment for a range of potential confounders, while belief in God was associated with endorsement of four items. A New Age conception of the divine appears to be strongly associated with a wide range of DLEs. Further research is needed to determine a causal link between New Age philosophy and DLEs (e.g. thought disturbance, suspiciousness, and delusions of grandeur).

Is there something quantum-like about the human mental lexicon?

This talk proceeds from the premise that IR should engage in a more substantial dialogue with cognitive science. After all, how users decide relevance, or how they chose terms to modify a query are processes rooted in human cognition. Recently, there has been a growing literature applying quantum theory (QT) to model cognitive phenomena. This talk will survey recent research, in particular, modelling interference effects in human decision making. One aspect of QT will be illustrated - how quantum entanglement can be used to model word associations in human memory. The implications of this will be briefly discussed in terms of a new approach for modelling concept combinations. Tentative links to human adductive reasoning will also be drawn. The basic theme behind this talk is QT can potentially provide a new genre of information processing models (including search) more aligned with human cognition.

Reading and writing PE-files with PERWAPI

PERWAPI is a component for reading and writing .NET PE-files. The name is a compound acronym for Program Executable – Reader/Writer – Application Programming Interface. The code was written by one of us (Diane Corney) with some contributions from some of the early users of the tool. PERWAPI is a managed component, written entirely in safe C#. The design of the writer part of the component is loosely based on Diane Corney’s previous PEAPI component. It is open source software, and is released under a “FreeBSD-like” license. The source may be downloaded from “http://plas.fit.qut.edu.au/perwapi/” As of the date of this document the code has facilities for reading and writing PEfiles compatible with the latest (beta-2) release of the ”Whidbey” version of .NET, that is, the Visual Studio 2005 framework. An invocation option allows earlier versions of the framework to be targeted.

Vitronectin modulates human mesenchymal stem cell response to insulin-like growth factor-I and transforming growth factor beta 1 in a serum-free environment

The use of animal sera for the culture of therapeutically important cells impedes the clinical use of the cells. We sought to characterize the functional response of human mesenchymal stem cells (hMSCs) to specific proteins known to exist in bone tissue with a view to eliminating the requirement of animal sera. Insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I), via IGF binding protein-3 or -5 (IGFBP-3 or -5) and transforming growth factor-beta 1 (TGF-beta(1)) are known to associate with the extracellular matrix (ECM) protein vitronectin (VN) and elicit functional responses in a range of cell types in vitro. We found that specific combinations of VN, IGFBP-3 or -5, and IGF-I or TGF-beta(1) could stimulate initial functional responses in hMSCs and that IGF-I or TGF-beta(1) induced hMSC aggregation, but VN concentration modulated this effect. We speculated that the aggregation effect may be due to endogenous protease activity, although we found that neither IGF-I nor TGF-beta(1) affected the functional expression of matrix metalloprotease-2 or -9, two common proteases expressed by hMSCs. In summary, combinations of the ECM and growth factors described herein may form the basis of defined cell culture media supplements, although the effect of endogenous protease expression on the function of such proteins requires investigation.

Reading and writing PE-files with PERWAPI

PERWAPI is a component for reading and writing .NET PE-files. The name is a compound acronym for Program Executable – Reader/Writer – Application Programming Interface. The code was written by one of us (Diane Corney) with some contributions from some of the early users of the tool. PERWAPI is a managed component, written entirely in safe C#. The design of the writer part of the component is loosely based on Diane Corney’s previous PEAPI component. It is open source software, and is released under a “FreeBSD-like” license. The source may be downloaded from “http://perwapi.codeplex.com”. As of the date of this document the code has facilities for reading and writing PEfiles compatible with the V2 or later frameworks.

The creative sector in New Zealand : mapping and economic role : report to New Zealand Trade and Enterprise

The New Zealand creative sector was responsible for almost 121,000 jobs at the time of the 2006 Census (6.3% of total employment). These are divided between • 35,751 creative specialists – persons employed doing creative work in creative industries • 42,300 support workers - persons providing management and support services in creative industries • 42,792 embedded creative workers – persons engaged in creative work in other types of enterprise The most striking feature of this breakdown is the fact that the largest group of creative workers are employed outside the creative industries, i.e. in other types of businesses. Even within the creative industries, there are fewer people directly engaged in creative work than in providing management and support. Creative sector employees earned incomes of approximately $52,000 per annum at the time of the 2006 Census. This is relatively uniform across all three types of creative worker, and is significantly above the average for all employed persons (of approximately $40,700). Creative employment and incomes were growing strongly over both five year periods between the 1996, 2001 and 2006 Censuses. However, when we compare creative and general trends, we see two distinct phases in the development of the creative sector: • rapid structural growth over the five years to 2001 (especially led by developments in ICT), with creative employment and incomes increasing rapidly at a time when they were growing modestly across the whole economy; • subsequent consolidation, with growth driven by more by national economic expansion than structural change, and creative employment and incomes moving in parallel with strong economy-wide growth. Other important trends revealed by the data are that • the strongest growth during the decade was in embedded creative workers, especially over the first five years. The weakest growth was in creative specialists, with support workers in creative industries in the middle rank, • by far the strongest growth in creative industries’ employment was in Software & digital content, which trebled in size over the decade Comparing New Zealand with the United Kingdom and Australia, the two southern hemisphere nations have significantly lower proportions of total employment in the creative sector (both in creative industries and embedded employment). New Zealand’s and Australia’s creative shares in 2001 were similar (5.4% each), but in the following five years, our share has expanded (to 5.7%) whereas Australia’s fell slightly (to 5.2%) – in both cases, through changes in creative industries’ employment. The creative industries generated $10.5 billion in total gross output in the March 2006 year. Resulting from this was value added totalling $5.1b, representing 3.3% of New Zealand’s total GDP. Overall, value added in the creative industries represents 49% of industry gross output, which is higher than the average across the whole economy, 45%. This is a reflection of the relatively high labour intensity and high earnings of the creative industries. Industries which have an above-average ratio of value added to gross output are usually labour-intensive, especially when wages and salaries are above average. This is true for Software & Digital Content and Architecture, Design & Visual Arts, with ratios of 60.4% and 55.2% respectively. However there is significant variation in this ratio between different parts of the creative industries, with some parts (e.g. Software & Digital Content and Architecture, Design & Visual Arts) generating even higher value added relative to output, and others (e.g. TV & Radio, Publishing and Music & Performing Arts) less, because of high capital intensity and import content. When we take into account the impact of the creative industries’ demand for goods and services from its suppliers and consumption spending from incomes earned, we estimate that there is an addition to economic activity of: • $30.9 billion in gross output, $41.4b in total • $15.1b in value added, $20.3b in total • 158,100 people employed, 234,600 in total The total economic impact of the creative industries is approximately four times their direct output and value added, and three times their direct employment. Their effect on output and value added is roughly in line with the average over all industries, although the effect on employment is significantly lower. This is because of the relatively high labour intensity (and high earnings) of the creative industries, which generate below-average demand from suppliers, but normal levels of demand though expenditure from incomes. Drawing on these numbers and conclusions, we suggest some (slightly speculative) directions for future research. The goal is to better understand the contribution the creative sector makes to productivity growth; in particular, the distinctive contributions from creative firms and embedded creative workers. The ideas for future research can be organised into the several categories: • Understanding the categories of the creative sector– who is doing the business? In other words, examine via more fine grained research (at a firm level perhaps) just what is the creative contribution from the different aspects of the creative sector industries. It may be possible to categorise these in terms of more or less striking innovations. • Investigate the relationship between the characteristics and the performance of the various creative industries/ sectors; • Look more closely at innovation at an industry level e.g. using an index of relative growth of exports, and see if this can be related to intensity of use of creative inputs; • Undertake case studies of the creative sector; • Undertake case studies of the embedded contribution to growth in the firms and industries that employ them, by examining taking several high performing noncreative industries (in the same way as proposed for the creative sector). • Look at the aggregates – drawing on the broad picture of the extent of the numbers of creative workers embedded within the different industries, consider the extent to which these might explain aspects of the industries’ varied performance in terms of exports, growth and so on. • This might be able to extended to examine issues like the type of creative workers that are most effective when embedded, or test the hypothesis that each industry has its own particular requirements for embedded creative workers that overwhelms any generic contributions from say design, or IT.

Contributions of vision-proprioception interactions to the estimation of time-varying hand and target locations

We investigated the relative importance of vision and proprioception in estimating target and hand locations in a dynamic environment. Subjects performed a position estimation task in which a target moved horizontally on a screen at a constant velocity and then disappeared. They were asked to estimate the position of the invisible target under two conditions: passively observing and manually tracking. The tracking trials included three visual conditions with a cursor representing the hand position: always visible, disappearing simultaneously with target disappearance, and always invisible. The target’s invisible displacement was systematically underestimated during passive observation. In active conditions, tracking with the visible cursor significantly decreased the extent of underestimation. Tracking of the invisible target became much more accurate under this condition and was not affected by cursor disappearance. In a second experiment, subjects were asked to judge the position of their unseen hand instead of the target during tracking movements. Invisible hand displacements were also underestimated when compared with the actual displacement. Continuous or brief presentation of the cursor reduced the extent of underestimation. These results suggest that vision–proprioception interactions are critical for representing exact target–hand spatial relationships, and that such sensorimotor representation of hand kinematics serves a cognitive function in predicting target position. We propose a hypothesis that the central nervous system can utilize information derived from proprioception and/or efference copy for sensorimotor prediction of dynamic target and hand positions, but that effective use of this information for conscious estimation requires that it be presented in a form that corresponds to that used for the estimations.