Measuring the accumulated hazards of smoking: global and regional estimates for 2000

Objective: Current prevalence of smoking, even where data are available, is a poor proxy for cumulative hazards of smoking, which depend on several factors including the age at which smoking began, duration of smoking, number of cigarettes smoked per day, degree of inhalation, and cigarette characteristics such as tar and nicotine content or filter type. Methods: We extended the Peto-Lopez smoking impact ratio method to estimate accumulated hazards of smoking for different regions of the world. Lung cancer mortality data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease mortality database. The American Cancer Society Cancer Prevention Study, phase 11 (CPS-II) with follow up for the years 1982 to 1988 was the reference population. For the global application of the method, never-smoker lung cancer mortality rates were chosen based on the estimated use of coal for household energy in each region. Results: Men in industrialised countries of Europe, North America, and the Western Pacific had the largest accumulated hazards of smoking. Young and middle age males in many regions of the developing world also had large smoking risks. The accumulated hazards of smoking for women were highest in North America followed by Europe. Conclusions: In the absence of detailed data on smoking prevalence and history, lung cancer mortality provides a robust indicator of the accumulated hazards of smoking. These hazards in developing countries are currently more concentrated among young and middle aged males.

Estimates of global mortality attributable to smoking in 2000

Background Smoking is a risk factor for several diseases and has been increasing in many developing countries. Our aim was to estimate global and regional mortality in 2000 caused by smoking, including an analysis of uncertainty. Methods Following the methods of Peto and colleagues, we used lung-cancer mortality as an indirect marker for accumulated smoking risk. Never-smoker lung-cancer mortality was estimated based on the household use of coal with poor ventilation. Relative risks were taken from the American Cancer Society Cancer Prevention Study, phase II, and the retrospective proportional mortality analysis of Liu and colleagues in China. Relative risks were corrected for confounding and extrapolation to other regions. Results We estimated that in 2000, 4.83 (uncertainty range 3.94-5.93) million premature deaths in the world were attributable to smoking; 2.41 (1.80-3.15) million in developing countries and 2.43 (2.13-2.78) million in industrialised countries. 3.84 million of these deaths were in men. The leading causes of death from smoking were cardiovascular diseases (1.69 million deaths), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (0.97 million deaths), and lung cancer (0.85 million deaths). Interpretation Smoking was an important cause of global mortality in 2000. In view of the expected demographic and epidemiological transitions and current smoking patterns in the developing world, the health loss due to smoking will grow even larger unless effective interventions and policies that reduce smoking among men and prevent increases among women in developing countries are implemented.

Relationships and estimates of longitudinal growth stress in Eucalyptus dunnii at different ages

O objetivo desse trabalho foi obter estimativas da tensão de crescimento longitudinal em árvores vivas e verificar a sua relação com algumas características da madeira de Eucalyptus dunnii Maiden aos oito, treze, quinze e dezenove anos de idade. O material foi proveniente da Empresa Procopiak Compensados e Embalagens S.A., localizada no Município de Canoinhas, Santa Catarina. Os níveis de tensão longitudinal de crescimento foram mensurados indiretamente pelo método do "CIRAD-Forêt", na árvore viva, e estimados a partir do módulo de elasticidade dinâmico e do módulo de elasticidade obtido no ensaio de tração paralela à grã. A deformação residual longitudinal (DRL) e as estimativas das tensões de crescimento longitudinais apresentaram tendência de aumento, na média, com a idade do material. A DRL apresentou correlação, positiva e significativa, com todas as estimativas das tensões de crescimento longitudinais, sendo de maior magnitude aos 13, 15 e 19 anos de idade. A densidade básica apresentou maiores correlações, positivas e significativas, com o módulo de elasticidade dinâmico, estimado no sentido longitudinal, para a madeira na condição de saturação e a 12% de umidade, em todas as idades avaliadas. Todas as estimativas das tensões de crescimento longitudinais apresentam elevadas correlações, positivas e significativas, entre si.

Enlarging the window for radiative leptogenesis

We investigate the scenario of resonant thermal leptogenesis, in which the leptonic asymmetries are generated through renormalization group corrections induced at the leptogenesis scale. In the framework of the standard model extended by three heavy Majorana neutrinos with masses M(1) = M(2) << M(3) at some high scale, we show that the mass splitting and CP-violating effects induced by renormalization group corrections can lead to values of the CP asymmetries large enough for a successful leptogenesis. In this scenario, the low-energy neutrino oscillation data can also be easily accommodated. The possibility of having an underlying symmetry behind the degeneracy in the right-handed neutrino mass spectrum is also discussed. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Difficulties in access and estimates of public beds in intensive care units in the state of Rio de Janeiro

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To estimate the required number of public beds for adults in intensive care units in the state of Rio de Janeiro to meet the existing demand and compare results with recommendations by the Brazilian Ministry of Health. METHODS The study uses a hybrid model combining time series and queuing theory to predict the demand and estimate the number of required beds. Four patient flow scenarios were considered according to bed requests, percentage of abandonments and average length of stay in intensive care unit beds. The results were plotted against Ministry of Health parameters. Data were obtained from the State Regulation Center from 2010 to 2011. RESULTS There were 33,101 medical requests for 268 regulated intensive care unit beds in Rio de Janeiro. With an average length of stay in regulated ICUs of 11.3 days, there would be a need for 595 active beds to ensure system stability and 628 beds to ensure a maximum waiting time of six hours. Deducting current abandonment rates due to clinical improvement (25.8%), these figures fall to 441 and 417. With an average length of stay of 6.5 days, the number of required beds would be 342 and 366, respectively; deducting abandonment rates, 254 and 275. The Brazilian Ministry of Health establishes a parameter of 118 to 353 beds. Although the number of regulated beds is within the recommended range, an increase in beds of 122.0% is required to guarantee system stability and of 134.0% for a maximum waiting time of six hours. CONCLUSIONS Adequate bed estimation must consider reasons for limited timely access and patient flow management in a scenario that associates prioritization of requests with the lowest average length of stay.

Spectral and coherence estimates on electroencephalogram recordings during arithmetical tasks

Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Biomédica

A solution for estimates in software development projects

The Corporate world is becoming more and more competitive. This leads organisations to adapt to this reality, by adopting more efficient processes, which result in a decrease in cost as well as an increase of product quality. One of these processes consists in making proposals to clients, which necessarily include a cost estimation of the project. This estimation is the main focus of this project. In particular, one of the goals is to evaluate which estimation models fit the Altran Portugal software factory the most, the organization where the fieldwork of this thesis will be carried out. There is no broad agreement about which is the type of estimation model more suitable to be used in software projects. Concerning contexts where there is plenty of objective information available to be used as input to an estimation model, model-based methods usually yield better results than the expert judgment. However, what happens more frequently is not having this volume and quality of information, which has a negative impact in the model-based methods performance, favouring the usage of expert judgement. In practice, most organisations use expert judgment, making themselves dependent on the expert. A common problem found is that the performance of the expert’s estimation depends on his previous experience with identical projects. This means that when new types of projects arrive, the estimation will have an unpredictable accuracy. Moreover, different experts will make different estimates, based on their individual experience. As a result, the company will not directly attain a continuous growing knowledge about how the estimate should be carried. Estimation models depend on the input information collected from previous projects, the size of the project database and the resources available. Altran currently does not store the input information from previous projects in a systematic way. It has a small project database and a team of experts. Our work is targeted to companies that operate in similar contexts. We start by gathering information from the organisation in order to identify which estimation approaches can be applied considering the organization’s context. A gap analysis is used to understand what type of information the company would have to collect so that other approaches would become available. Based on our assessment, in our opinion, expert judgment is the most adequate approach for Altran Portugal, in the current context. We analysed past development and evolution projects from Altran Portugal and assessed their estimates. This resulted in the identification of common estimation deviations, errors, and patterns, which lead to the proposal of metrics to help estimators produce estimates leveraging past projects quantitative and qualitative information in a convenient way. This dissertation aims to contribute to more realistic estimates, by identifying shortcomings in the current estimation process and supporting the self-improvement of the process, by gathering as much relevant information as possible from each finished project.

Syphilis seroprevalence estimates of Santa Catarina blood donors in 2010

Introduction Knowledge of blood donor characteristics is essential to better guide clinical and serological screening for hemotherapy. The objective of this study was to determine the syphilis seroprevalence and the associated factors of blood donors in the State of Santa Catarina, Brazil. Methods This population-based study from the State of Santa Catarina used information obtained from blood donation records. We analyzed 83,396 blood donor records generated from donors who were considered eligible to donate between January and August 2010. The aim of the study was to estimate the syphilis seroprevalence and its relationship with educational level, age, gender, geographical region and having donated blood in the past 12 months. We used descriptive analyses and a Poisson regression to calculate the prevalence ratios for the variables of interest. Results We found a 0.14% overall seroprevalence and significant differences among the following: first-time blood donors (0.19%) versus repeat donors (0.03% to 0.08%); low educational levels (0.30%) versus medium and high educational levels (0.08% to 0.19%); and donors who did not report their residence (0.88%) or age (6.94%) versus those who did. Increased syphilis seroprevalence was also significantly associated with increased age. Conclusion High syphilis seroprevalence was associated with lower educational level, age, first-time donation and the failure to provide age or residence information.

Aortopulmonary window. Clinical and surgical assessment of 18 cases

OBJECTIVE: Aortopulmonary window (APW) is an uncommon congenital malformation. Its clinical presentation is dependent on the size of the defect and on the associated lesions. We evaluated our experience with this anomaly and compared it with 296 cases reported in the literature. METHODS: Retrospective study of 18 patients diagnosed as having APW (age range from 13 days to 31 years, 13 (72.2%) females), divided into two groups: Group A (GA): 10 patients with isolated APW, and Group B (GB): 8 patients with associated lesions. RESULTS: Heart failure occurred in 14 patients, and cyanosis in 3: 2 from GB (tetralogy of Fallot - TF, and double outlet right ventricle - DORV), and one from GA with pulmonary hypertension. In 5 patients from GA the diagnosis of mitral regurgitation was made based on a systolic murmur and LV hypertrophy on the EKG. In GB, clinical findings were determined by the associated defect. Diagnosis was established by echocardiography in 11 (61.2%) of the patients. In 3 patients, a wrong diagnosis of mitral regurgitation was made, in 1 a patent ductus arteriosus was diagnosed and in 3 others, the diagnosis of APW was masked by other important associated defects (2 cases of DORV and 1 case of TF). The diagnosis was made by catheterization in 3 (16.6%) patients, by surgery in 3 (16.6%) and by necropsy in 1 (5.5%). Corrective surgery was performed in 14 (77.7%) patients, with one immediate death and good long-term follow-up in the remaining patients. CONCLUSION: APW can be confused with other defects. Clinical findings, associated with an adequate echocardiogram can provide the information for the correct diagnosis.

Aortopulmonary window and double aortic arch. A rare association

We report the case of a 27-year-old male patient with dyspnea on physical exertion. Clinical assessment and various tests led to the diagnosis of aortopulmonary window and double aortic arch. According to a literature search, this may be the first report on such association.

Dominance of positivity of the Green's function associated to a perturbed polyharmonic dirichlet boundary value problem by pointwise estimates

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Mathematik, Diss., 2015

Density estimates and conservation of Leopardus pardalis southernmost population of the Atlantic Forest

ABSTRACT Using camera traps and capture/recapture analyses we recorded the presence and abundance of cat species at Turvo State Park, in southern Brazil. Ocelot [Leopardus pardalis (Linnaeus, 1758)] population density was estimated for two areas of the park, with differing management profiles. Density estimates varied from 0.14 to 0.26 indiv. km2. Another five cat species were recorded at very low frequencies, precluding more accurate analyses. We estimate 24 to 45 ocelots occur in the reserve, which is probably too small for long-term maintenance of the population, if isolated. However, if habitat integrity and connectivity between the Park and the Green Corridor of Misiones is maintained, an estimated ocelot population of 1,680 individuals should have long-term viability.

A rotation method which gives linear Lp-Estimates for powers of the Ahlfors-Beurling operator

"Vegeu el resum a l'inici del document del fitxer adjunt."