The Difference, System and ‘Double-D’ GMM Panel Estimators in the Presence of Structural Breaks

The effects of structural breaks in dynamic panels are more complicated than in time series models as the bias can be either negative or positive. This paper focuses on the effects of mean shifts in otherwise stationary processes within an instrumental variable panel estimation framework. We show the sources of the bias and a Monte Carlo analysis calibrated on United States bank lending data demonstrates the size of the bias for a range of auto-regressive parameters. We also propose additional moment conditions that can be used to reduce the biases caused by shifts in the mean of the data.

Model Uncertainty in Panel Vector Autoregressive Models.

We develop methods for Bayesian model averaging (BMA) or selection (BMS) in Panel Vector Autoregressions (PVARs). Our approach allows us to select between or average over all possible combinations of restricted PVARs where the restrictions involve interdependencies between and heterogeneities across cross-sectional units. The resulting BMA framework can find a parsimonious PVAR specification, thus dealing with overparameterization concerns. We use these methods in an application involving the euro area sovereign debt crisis and show that our methods perform better than alternatives. Our findings contradict a simple view of the sovereign debt crisis which divides the euro zone into groups of core and peripheral countries and worries about financial contagion within the latter group.

Model Uncertainty in Panel Vector Autoregressive Models.

We develop methods for Bayesian model averaging (BMA) or selection (BMS) in Panel Vector Autoregressions (PVARs). Our approach allows us to select between or average over all possible combinations of restricted PVARs where the restrictions involve interdependencies between and heterogeneities across cross-sectional units. The resulting BMA framework can find a parsimonious PVAR specification, thus dealing with overparameterization concerns. We use these methods in an application involving the euro area sovereign debt crisis and show that our methods perform better than alternatives. Our findings contradict a simple view of the sovereign debt crisis which divides the euro zone into groups of core and peripheral countries and worries about financial contagion within the latter group.

A Multiple Break Panel Approach to Estimating United States Phillips Curves

Phillips curves are often estimated without due attention being paid to the underlying time series properties of the data. In particular, the consequences of inflation having discrete breaks in mean have not been studied adequately. We show by means of simulations and a detailed empirical example based on United States data that not taking account of breaks may lead to biased, and therefore spurious, estimates of Phillips curves. We suggest a method to account for the breaks in mean inflation and obtain meaningful and unbiased estimates of the short- and long-run Phillips curves in the United States.

Policy initiatives and firms’ access to external finance: Evidence from a panel of emerging Asian economies

This paper analyses the impact of policy initiatives co-ordinated by Asian national governments on firms' access to external finance, using a unique firm-level database of eight Asian countries- Hong Kong SAR, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand over the period of 1996-2012. Using a difference-indifferences approach and controlling for firm-level and macroeconomic factors, the results show a significant impact of policy on firms' access to external finance. After splitting firms into constrained and unconstrained, using several criteria, the results document that unconstrained firms benefited significantly in obtaining external finance, compared to their constrained counterparts. Finally, we show that the increase in access to external finance after the policy initiative helped firms to raise their investment spending, especially for unconstrained firms.

Prior selection for panel vector autoregressions

There is a vast literature that specifies Bayesian shrinkage priors for vector autoregressions (VARs) of possibly large dimensions. In this paper I argue that many of these priors are not appropriate for multi-country settings, which motivates me to develop priors for panel VARs (PVARs). The parametric and semi-parametric priors I suggest not only perform valuable shrinkage in large dimensions, but also allow for soft clustering of variables or countries which are homogeneous. I discuss the implications of these new priors for modelling interdependencies and heterogeneities among different countries in a panel VAR setting. Monte Carlo evidence and an empirical forecasting exercise show clear and important gains of the new priors compared to existing popular priors for VARs and PVARs.

Design and evaluation of a solid sampler for the monitoring of airborne 1,6-hexamethylene diisocyanate (HDI) and its prepolymers in 2-component spray painting

An active, solvent-free solid sampler was developed for the collection of 1,6-hexamethylene diisocyanate (HDI) aerosol and prepolymers. The sampler was made of a filter impregnated with 1-(2-methoxyphenyl)piperazine contained in a filter holder. Interferences with HDI were observed when a set of cellulose acetate filters and a polystyrene filter holder were used; a glass fiber filter and polypropylene filter cassette gave better results. The applicability of the sampling and analytical procedure was validated with a test chamber, constructed for the dynamic generation of HDI aerosol and prepolymers in commercial two-component spray paints (Desmodur(R) N75) used in car refinishing. The particle size distribution, temporal stability, and spatial uniformity of the simulated aerosol were established in order to test the sample. The monitoring of aerosol concentrations was conducted with the solid sampler paired to the reference impinger technique (impinger flasks contained 10 mL of 0.5 mg/mL 1-(2-methoxyphenyl)piperazine in toluene) under a controlled atmosphere in the test chamber. Analyses of derivatized HDI and prepolymers were carried out by using high-performance liquid chromatography and ultraviolet detection. The correlation between the solvent-free and the impinger techniques appeared fairly good (Y = 0.979X - 0.161; R = 0.978), when the tests were conducted in the range of 0.1 to 10 times the threshold limit value (TLV) for HDI monomer and up to 60-mu-g/m3 (3 U.K. TLVs) for total -N = C = O groups.

Monthly wages in the Swiss Household Panel

This paper describes the construction of monthly income from employment and self employment in the Swiss Household Panel (SHP). It documents the assumptions that have to be taken and addresses possibilities and difficulties when relating monthly income variables with the number of working hours. Finally, some descriptive statistics of the monthly wages are provided from 1999 to 2008. These show a high correlation of wages across the years, which is higher than correlation from yearly wages. This underlies the suitability of these variables on monthly wages for labour market research with the SHP. Median and average hourly wages have increased slightly from 2002 to 2008. The inequality of wages has remained stable for the total population.

Effects of different Incentives on Attrition and Fieldwork Effort in Telephone Household Panel Surveys

Little is known about sample behavior and fieldwork effects of different incentives introduced in a household panel survey. This is especially true for telephone surveys. In a randomized experiment, the Swiss Household Panel implemented one prepaid and two promised nonmonetary incentives in the range of 10 to 15 Swiss Francs (7-10 e), plus a no incentive control group. The aim of the paper is to compare effects of these incentives especially on cooperation, but also on sample selection and fieldwork effort, separated by the household and the subsequent individual level. We find small positive cooperation effects of the prepaid incentive on both the household and the individual level especially in larger households. Sample composition is affected to a very minor extent. Finally, incentives tend to save fieldwork time and partially the number of contacts needed on the individual level.

Polyanalgesic Consensus Conference--2012: recommendations on trialing for intrathecal (intraspinal) drug delivery: report of an interdisciplinary expert panel.

INTRODUCTION: Trialing for intrathecal pump placement is an essential part of the decision-making process in placing a permanent device. In both the United States and the international community, the proper method for trialing is ill defined. METHODS: The Polyanalgesic Consensus Conference (PACC) is a group of well-published experienced practitioners who meet to update the state of care for intrathecal therapies on the basis of current knowledge in the literature and clinical experience. Anexhaustive search is performed to create a base of information that the panel considers when making recommendations for best clinical practices. This literature, coupled with clinical experience, is the basis for recommendations and for identification of gaps in the base of knowledge regarding trialing for intrathecal pump placement. RESULTS: The panel has made recommendations for the proper methods of trialing for long-term intrathecal drug delivery. CONCLUSION: The use of intrathecal drug delivery is an important part of the treatment algorithm for moderate to severe chronic pain. It has become common practice to perform a temporary neuroaxial infusion before permanent device implantation. On the basis of current knowledge, the PACC has developed recommendations to improve care. The need to update these recommendations will be very important as new literature is published.

Attrition of Households and Individuals in Panel Surveys

Attrition is mostly caused by not contacted or refusing sample members. On one hand it is well-known that reasons to attrite due to non-contact are different from those that are due to refusal. On the other hand does non-contact most probably affect household attrition, while refusal can be effective on both households and individuals. In this article, attrition on both the household and (conditional on household participation) the individual level is analysed in three panel surveys from the Cross National Equivalent File (CNEF): the German Socio- Economic Panel (GSOEP), the British Household Panel Study (BHPS), and the Swiss Household Panel (SHP). To follow households over time we use a common rule in all three surveys. First, we find different attrition magnitudes and patterns both across the surveys and also on the household and the individual level. Second, there is more evidence for reinforced rather than compensated household level selection effects if the individual level is also taken into account.

Is the diagnostic yield of upper GI endoscopy improved by the use of explicit panel-based appropriateness criteria?

BACKGROUND: Increasing the appropriateness of use of upper gastrointestinal (GI) endoscopy is important to improve quality of care while at the same time containing costs. This study explored whether detailed explicit appropriateness criteria significantly improve the diagnostic yield of upper GI endoscopy. METHODS: Consecutive patients referred for upper GI endoscopy at 6 centers (1 university hospital, 2 district hospitals, 3 gastroenterology practices) were prospectively included over a 6-month period. After controlling for disease presentation and patient characteristics, the relationship between the appropriateness of upper GI endoscopy, as assessed by explicit Swiss criteria developed by the RAND/UCLA panel method, and the presence of relevant endoscopic lesions was analyzed. RESULTS: A total of 2088 patients (60% outpatients, 57% men) were included. Analysis was restricted to the 1681 patients referred for diagnostic upper GI endoscopy. Forty-six percent of upper GI endoscopies were judged to be appropriate, 15% uncertain, and 39% inappropriate by the explicit criteria. No cancer was found in upper GI endoscopies judged to be inappropriate. Upper GI endoscopies judged appropriate or uncertain yielded significantly more relevant lesions (60%) than did those judged to be inappropriate (37%; odds ratio 2.6: 95% CI [2.2, 3.2]). In multivariate analyses, the diagnostic yield of upper GI endoscopy was significantly influenced by appropriateness, patient gender and age, treatment setting, and symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: Upper GI endoscopies performed for appropriate indications resulted in detecting significantly more clinically relevant lesions than did those performed for inappropriate indications. In addition, no upper GI endoscopy that resulted in a diagnosis of cancer was judged to be inappropriate. The use of such criteria improves patient selection for upper GI endoscopy and can thus contribute to efforts aimed at enhancing the quality and efficiency of care. (Gastrointest Endosc 2000;52:333-41).

Antiretroviral treatment of adult HIV infection: 2012 recommendations of the International Antiviral Society-USA panel.

CONTEXT: New trial data and drug regimens that have become available in the last 2 years warrant an update to guidelines for antiretroviral therapy (ART) in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected adults in resource-rich settings. OBJECTIVE: To provide current recommendations for the treatment of adult HIV infection with ART and use of laboratory-monitoring tools. Guidelines include when to start therapy and with what drugs, monitoring for response and toxic effects, special considerations in therapy, and managing antiretroviral failure. DATA SOURCES, STUDY SELECTION, AND DATA EXTRACTION: Data that had been published or presented in abstract form at scientific conferences in the past 2 years were systematically searched and reviewed by an International Antiviral Society-USA panel. The panel reviewed available evidence and formed recommendations by full panel consensus. DATA SYNTHESIS: Treatment is recommended for all adults with HIV infection; the strength of the recommendation and the quality of the evidence increase with decreasing CD4 cell count and the presence of certain concurrent conditions. Recommended initial regimens include 2 nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (tenofovir/emtricitabine or abacavir/lamivudine) plus a nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (efavirenz), a ritonavir-boosted protease inhibitor (atazanavir or darunavir), or an integrase strand transfer inhibitor (raltegravir). Alternatives in each class are recommended for patients with or at risk of certain concurrent conditions. CD4 cell count and HIV-1 RNA level should be monitored, as should engagement in care, ART adherence, HIV drug resistance, and quality-of-care indicators. Reasons for regimen switching include virologic, immunologic, or clinical failure and drug toxicity or intolerance. Confirmed treatment failure should be addressed promptly and multiple factors considered. CONCLUSION: New recommendations for HIV patient care include offering ART to all patients regardless of CD4 cell count, changes in therapeutic options, and modifications in the timing and choice of ART in the setting of opportunistic illnesses such as cryptococcal disease and tuberculosis.

Oxidative potential of a panel of carbonaceous and metallic nanoparticles

Characterisation of nanoparticles (NP) based on size distribution, surface area, reactivity, and aggregation status of nanoparticles (NP) are of prime importance because they are usually closely related to toxicity. To date, most of the toxicity studies are quite time and money consuming. In the present study we report the oxidative properties of a panel of various NP (four Carbonaceous, nine Metal oxides, and one Metal as showed in Table 1) assessed with an acellular reactivity test measuring dithiothreitol (DTT) consumption (Sauvain et al. 2008). Such a test allows determining the ability of NP to catalyse the transfer of electrons from DTT to oxygen. DTT is used as a reductant species. NP were diluted and sonicated in Tween 80® to a final concentration of 50 g/mL. Printex 90 was diluted 5 times before doing the DTT assay because of its expected higher activity. Suspensions were characterised for NP size distribution by Nanoparticle Tracking Analysis (Nanosight©). Fresh solutions were incubated with DTT (100 μM). Aliquots were taken every 5 min and the remaining DTT was determined by reacting it with DTNB. The reaction rate was determined for NP suspensions and blank in parallel. The mean Brownian size distribution of NP agglomerates in suspension is presented in Table 1. D values correspond to 10th, and 50th percentiles of the particle diameters. All the NP agglomerated in Tween 80 with a D50 size corresponding to at least twice their primary size, except for Al2O3 (300 nm). The DTT test showed Printex 90 sample to be the most reactive one, followed by Diesel EPA and Nanotubes. Most of the metallic NP was nonresponding toward this test, except for NiO and Ag which reacted positively and ZnO which presented the most negative reactivity (see Figure 1). This last observation suggests that electron transfer between DTT and oxygen is hindered in presence of ZnO compared with the blank. Such "stabilization" could be attributable to ZnO dissolution and complexation between Zn2+ ions and DTT.