Testing for multicointegration in panel data with common factors

The paper addresses the concept of multicointegration in panel data frame- work. The proposal builds upon the panel data cointegration procedures developed in Pedroni (2004), for which we compute the moments of the parametric statistics. When individuals are either cross-section independent or cross-section dependence can be re- moved by cross-section demeaning, our approach can be applied to the wider framework of mixed I(2) and I(1) stochastic processes analysis. The paper also deals with the issue of cross-section dependence using approximate common factor models. Finite sample performance is investigated through Monte Carlo simulations. Finally, we illustrate the use of the procedure investigating inventories, sales and production relationship for a panel of US industries.

Design Guide for Precast UHPC Waffle Deck Panel System, including Connections, June 2013

Abstract: As a part of an innovation project funded by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) Highways for LIFE program, a full-depth precast, ultra-high-performance concrete (UHPC) waffle deck panel and appropriate connections suitable for field implementation of waffle decks were developed. Following a successful full-scale validation test on a unit consisting of two panels with various types of connections under laboratory conditions, the waffle deck was installed successfully on a replacement bridge in Wapello County, Iowa. The subsequent load testing confirmed the desirable performance of the UHPC waffle deck bridge. Using the lessons from the completed project and outcomes from a series of simple and detailed finite element analyses of waffle decks, this report was developed to serve as a guide for broadening the design and installation of the UHPC waffle deck panel in new and existing bridges. Following an introduction to UHPC and waffle deck panels and a summary of completed work, this document presents information on waffle deck design, design of connections, redecking using waffle deck panels, and guidance on precast fabrication, construction, and installation of UHPC waffle deck panels.

Two Signatures For A New Blood-Based Test For Colorectal Cancer Screening

Background: Detection rates for adenoma and early colorectal cancer (CRC) are unsatisfactory due to low compliance towards invasive screening procedures such as colonoscopy. There is a large unmet screening need calling for an accurate, non-invasive and cost-effective test to screen for early neoplastic and pre-neoplastic lesions. Our goal is to identify effective biomarker combinations to develop a screening test aimed at detecting precancerous lesions and early CRC stages, based on a multigene assay performed on peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC).Methods: A pilot study was conducted on 92 subjects. Colonoscopy revealed 21 CRC, 30 adenomas larger than 1 cm and 41 healthy controls. A panel of 103 biomarkers was selected by two approaches: a candidate gene approach based on literature review and whole transcriptome analysis of a subset of this cohort by Illumina TAG profiling. Blood samples were taken from each patient and PBMC purified. Total RNA was extracted and the 103 biomarkers were tested by multiplex RT-qPCR on the cohort. Different univariate and multivariate statistical methods were applied on the PCR data and 60 biomarkers, with significant p-value (< 0.01) for most of the methods, were selected.Results: The 60 biomarkers are involved in several different biological functions, such as cell adhesion, cell motility, cell signaling, cell proliferation, development and cancer. Two distinct molecular signatures derived from the biomarker combinations were established based on penalized logistic regression to separate patients without lesion from those with CRC or adenoma. These signatures were validated using bootstrapping method, leading to a separation of patients without lesion from those with CRC (Se 67%, Sp 93%, AUC 0.87) and from those with adenoma larger than 1cm (Se 63%, Sp 83%, AUC 0.77). In addition, the organ and disease specificity of these signatures was confirmed by means of patients with other cancer types and inflammatory bowel diseases.Conclusions: The two defined biomarker combinations effectively detect the presence of CRC and adenomas larger than 1 cm with high sensitivity and specificity. A prospective, multicentric, pivotal study is underway in order to validate these results in a larger cohort.

Precast Concrete Panel Thickness for Epoxy-Coated Prestressing Strands, Volume 1, HR-353, 1994

This final report for Phase 1 of the research on epoxy-coated, prestressing strands in precast prestressed concrete (PC) panels has been published in two volumes. This volume, Volume 1--Technical Report, contains the problem description, literature review, and survey results; descriptions of the test specimens, experimental tests, and analytical models; discussions of the analytical and experimental results; summary, conclusions, and recommendations; list of references; and acknowledgment. Volume 2--Supplemental Report contains additional information in the form of summarized responses to the questionnaires; graphs showing the strand forces; figures showing the geometry of the specimens and concrete crack patterns that formed in the strand transfer length and strand development length specimens; and graphs of the concrete strains in the strand transfer length specimens, load-point deflections, and strand-slip measurements for the strand development length specimens.

Precast Concrete Panel Thickness for Epoxy-Coated Prestressing Strands, Volume 2, HR-353, 1994

This final report for Phase 1 of the research on epoxy-coated, prestressing strands in precast prestressed concrete (PC) panels has been published in two volumes. Volume 1--Technical Report contains the problem description, literature review, and survey results; descriptions of the test specimens, experimental tests, and analytical models; discussions of the analytical and experimental results; summary, conclusions, and recommendations; list of references; and acknowledgments. Volume 2--Supplemental Report contains additional information in the form of appendix material for Volume 1 on the questionnaires, strand forces, geometry of the specimens, concrete crack patterns that formed in the strand transfer length and strand development length specimens, concrete strains in the strand transfer length specimens, and load-point deflections and strand-slip measurements for the strand development length specimens. Appendix A contains the questionnaires that were sent to the design agencies and precast concrete producers. A summary of the results to the questions on the surveys are given as the number of respondents who provided the same answers and as paraphrased comments from the respondents. Appendix B contains graphs of strand force versus time, strand force versus temperature, and strand force versus strand cutting sequence for the concrete castings. Appendix C contains figures that show the location of each specimen in the prestress bed, the geometrical configurations for the strand transfer length (T-type) specimens and strand development length (D-type) specimens, and the concrete cracks that developed in some of the T-type specimens when they were prestressed. Appendix D contains figures that show the concrete cracks that developed in the D-type specimens during the strand development length tests. For each of these tests, the sequence of the failure for the specimen is specified. Appendix E contains graphs of concrete strain versus distance from the end of the T-type specimens that were instrumented with internal embedment strain gages. Appendix F contains graphs of load versus load-point deflection and load versus strand-slip for the strand development length tests of the D-type specimens.

Univariate versus multivariate modeling of panel data

Panel data can be arranged into a matrix in two ways, called 'long' and 'wide' formats (LFand WF). The two formats suggest two alternative model approaches for analyzing paneldata: (i) univariate regression with varying intercept; and (ii) multivariate regression withlatent variables (a particular case of structural equation model, SEM). The present papercompares the two approaches showing in which circumstances they yield equivalent?insome cases, even numerically equal?results. We show that the univariate approach givesresults equivalent to the multivariate approach when restrictions of time invariance (inthe paper, the TI assumption) are imposed on the parameters of the multivariate model.It is shown that the restrictions implicit in the univariate approach can be assessed bychi-square difference testing of two nested multivariate models. In addition, commontests encountered in the econometric analysis of panel data, such as the Hausman test, areshown to have an equivalent representation as chi-square difference tests. Commonalitiesand differences between the univariate and multivariate approaches are illustrated usingan empirical panel data set of firms' profitability as well as a simulated panel data.

Discovery of a 29-gene panel in peripheral blood mononuclear cells for the detection of colorectal cancer and adenomas using high throughput real-time PCR.

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the second leading cause of cancer-related death in developed countries. Early detection of CRC leads to decreased CRC mortality. A blood-based CRC screening test is highly desirable due to limited invasiveness and high acceptance rate among patients compared to currently used fecal occult blood testing and colonoscopy. Here we describe the discovery and validation of a 29-gene panel in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) for the detection of CRC and adenomatous polyps (AP). Blood samples were prospectively collected from a multicenter, case-control clinical study. First, we profiled 93 samples with 667 candidate and 3 reference genes by high throughput real-time PCR (OpenArray system). After analysis, 160 genes were retained and tested again on 51 additional samples. Low expressed and unstable genes were discarded resulting in a final dataset of 144 samples profiled with 140 genes. To define which genes, alone or in combinations had the highest potential to discriminate AP and/or CRC from controls, data were analyzed by a combination of univariate and multivariate methods. A list of 29 potentially discriminant genes was compiled and evaluated for its predictive accuracy by penalized logistic regression and bootstrap. This method discriminated AP >1cm and CRC from controls with a sensitivity of 59% and 75%, respectively, with 91% specificity. The behavior of the 29-gene panel was validated with a LightCycler 480 real-time PCR platform, commonly adopted by clinical laboratories. In this work we identified a 29-gene panel expressed in PBMC that can be used for developing a novel minimally-invasive test for accurate detection of AP and CRC using a standard real-time PCR platform.

Agent-augmented process automation system in a panel board factory

Kiristyvä kansainvälinen kilpailu pakottaa automaatiojärjestelmien valmistajat ottamaan käyttöön uusia menetelmiä, joiden avulla järjestelmien suorituskykyä ja joustavuutta saadaan parannettua. Agenttiteknologiaa on esitetty käytettäväksi olemassa olevien automaatiojärjestelmien kanssa vastaamaan automaatiolle asetettaviin uusiin haasteisiin. Agentit ovat itsenäisiä yhteisöllisiä toimijoita, jotka suorittavat niille ennalta määrättyjä tehtäviä. Ne tarjoavat yhtenäisen kehyksen kehittyneiden toimintojen toteutukselle. Agenttiteknologian avulla automaatiojärjestelmä saadaan toimimaan joustavasti ja vikasietoisesti. Tässä työssä selostetaan agenttiteknologian ajatuksia ja käsitteitä. Lisäksi selvitetään sen soveltuvuutta monimutkaisten ohjausjärjestelmien kehittämiseen ja etsitään käyttökohteita sen soveltamiselle levytehtaassa. Työssä käsitellään myös aatteita, jotka ovat johtaneet agenttiteknologian käyttöön automaatiojärjestelmissä, sekä selostetaan agenttiavusteisen esimerkkisovelluksen rakenne ja testitulokset. Tutkimuksen tuloksena löydettiin useita kohteita agenttiteknologian käytölle levytehtaassa. Esimerkkisovellus osoittaa sen sopivan hyvin kehittyneiden toimintojen toteutukseen automaatiojärjestelmissä.

General Equilibrium Long-Run Determinants for Spanish FDI: A Spatial Panel Data Approach

While general equilibrium theories of trade stress the role of third-country effects, little work has been done in the empirical foreign direct investment (FDI) literature to test such spatial linkages. This paper aims to provide further insights into long-run determinants of Spanish FDI by considering not only bilateral but also spatially weighted third-country determinants. The few studies carried out so far have focused on FDI flows in a limited number of countries. However, Spanish FDI outflows have risen dramatically since 1995 and today account for a substantial part of global FDI. Therefore, we estimate recently developed Spatial Panel Data models by Maximum Likelihood (ML) procedures for Spanish outflows (1993-2004) to top-50 host countries. After controlling for unobservable effects, we find that spatial interdependence matters and provide evidence consistent with New Economic Geography (NEG) theories of agglomeration, mainly due to complex (vertical) FDI motivations. Spatial Error Models estimations also provide illuminating results regarding the transmission mechanism of shocks.

Multicointegration, polynomial cointegration and I(2) cointegration with structural breaks. An application to the sustainability of the US external deficit

In this paper we model the multicointegration relation, allowing for one structural break. Since multicointegration is a particular case of polynomial or I(2) cointegration, our proposal can also be applied in these cases. The paper proposes the use of a residualbased Dickey-Fuller class of statistic that accounts for one known or unknown structural break. Finite sample performance of the proposed statistic is investigated by using Monte Carlo simulations, which reveals that the statistic shows good properties in terms of empirical size and power. We complete the study with an empirical application of the sustainability of the US external deficit. Contrary to existing evidence, the consideration of one structural break leads to conclude in favour of the sustainability of the US external deficit.

Mathematical analysis of maximum power generated by photovoltaic systems and fitting curves for standard test conditions

The rural electrification is characterized by geographical dispersion of the population, low consumption, high investment by consumers and high cost. Moreover, solar radiation constitutes an inexhaustible source of energy and in its conversion into electricity photovoltaic panels are used. In this study, equations were adjusted to field conditions presented by the manufacturer for current and power of small photovoltaic systems. The mathematical analysis was performed on the photovoltaic rural system I-100 from ISOFOTON, with power 300 Wp, located at the Experimental Farm Lageado of FCA/UNESP. For the development of such equations, the circuitry of photovoltaic cells has been studied to apply iterative numerical methods for the determination of electrical parameters and possible errors in the appropriate equations in the literature to reality. Therefore, a simulation of a photovoltaic panel was proposed through mathematical equations that were adjusted according to the data of local radiation. The results have presented equations that provide real answers to the user and may assist in the design of these systems, once calculated that the maximum power limit ensures a supply of energy generated. This real sizing helps establishing the possible applications of solar energy to the rural producer and informing the real possibilities of generating electricity from the sun.

The Seemingly Unrelated Dynamic Cointegration Regression Model and Testing for Purching Power Parity.

This paper studies seemingly unrelated linear models with integrated regressors and stationary errors. By adding leads and lags of the first differences of the regressors and estimating this augmented dynamic regression model by feasible generalized least squares using the long-run covariance matrix, we obtain an efficient estimator of the cointegrating vector that has a limiting mixed normal distribution. Simulation results suggest that this new estimator compares favorably with others already proposed in the literature. We apply these new estimators to the testing of purchasing power parity (PPP) among the G-7 countries. The test based on the efficient estimates rejects the PPP hypothesis for most countries.

Development of a Blood Antigen Molecular Profiling Panel using Genotyping Technologies for Patients Requiring Frequent Transfusions

Contexte. Les phénotypes ABO et Rh(D) des donneurs de sang ainsi que des patients transfusés sont analysés de façon routinière pour assurer une complète compatibilité. Ces analyses sont accomplies par agglutination suite à une réaction anticorps-antigènes. Cependant, pour des questions de coûts et de temps d’analyses faramineux, les dons de sang ne sont pas testés sur une base routinière pour les antigènes mineurs du sang. Cette lacune peut résulter à une allo-immunisation des patients receveurs contre un ou plusieurs antigènes mineurs et ainsi amener des sévères complications pour de futures transfusions. Plan d’étude et Méthodes. Pour ainsi aborder le problème, nous avons produit un panel génétique basé sur la technologie « GenomeLab _SNPstream» de Beckman Coulter, dans l’optique d’analyser simultanément 22 antigènes mineurs du sang. La source d’ADN provient des globules blancs des patients préalablement isolés sur papiers FTA. Résultats. Les résultats démontrent que le taux de discordance des génotypes, mesuré par la corrélation des résultats de génotypage venant des deux directions de l’ADN, ainsi que le taux d’échec de génotypage sont très bas (0,1%). Également, la corrélation entre les résultats de phénotypes prédit par génotypage et les phénotypes réels obtenus par sérologie des globules rouges et plaquettes sanguines, varient entre 97% et 100%. Les erreurs expérimentales ou encore de traitement des bases de données ainsi que de rares polymorphismes influençant la conformation des antigènes, pourraient expliquer les différences de résultats. Cependant, compte tenu du fait que les résultats de phénotypages obtenus par génotypes seront toujours co-vérifiés avant toute transfusion sanguine par les technologies standards approuvés par les instances gouvernementales, les taux de corrélation obtenus sont de loin supérieurs aux critères de succès attendus pour le projet. Conclusion. Le profilage génétique des antigènes mineurs du sang permettra de créer une banque informatique centralisée des phénotypes des donneurs, permettant ainsi aux banques de sang de rapidement retrouver les profiles compatibles entre les donneurs et les receveurs.

Beyond Panel Unit Root Tests: Using Multiple Testing to Determine the Non Stationarity Properties of Individual Series in a Panel

Most panel unit root tests are designed to test the joint null hypothesis of a unit root for each individual series in a panel. After a rejection, it will often be of interest to identify which series can be deemed to be stationary and which series can be deemed nonstationary. Researchers will sometimes carry out this classification on the basis of n individual (univariate) unit root tests based on some ad hoc significance level. In this paper, we demonstrate how to use the false discovery rate (FDR) in evaluating I(1)=I(0) classifications based on individual unit root tests when the size of the cross section (n) and time series (T) dimensions are large. We report results from a simulation experiment and illustrate the methods on two data sets.

Bootstrap for panel data models with an application to the evaluation of public policies

Le but de cette thèse est d étendre la théorie du bootstrap aux modèles de données de panel. Les données de panel s obtiennent en observant plusieurs unités statistiques sur plusieurs périodes de temps. Leur double dimension individuelle et temporelle permet de contrôler l 'hétérogénéité non observable entre individus et entre les périodes de temps et donc de faire des études plus riches que les séries chronologiques ou les données en coupe instantanée. L 'avantage du bootstrap est de permettre d obtenir une inférence plus précise que celle avec la théorie asymptotique classique ou une inférence impossible en cas de paramètre de nuisance. La méthode consiste à tirer des échantillons aléatoires qui ressemblent le plus possible à l échantillon d analyse. L 'objet statitstique d intérêt est estimé sur chacun de ses échantillons aléatoires et on utilise l ensemble des valeurs estimées pour faire de l inférence. Il existe dans la littérature certaines application du bootstrap aux données de panels sans justi cation théorique rigoureuse ou sous de fortes hypothèses. Cette thèse propose une méthode de bootstrap plus appropriée aux données de panels. Les trois chapitres analysent sa validité et son application. Le premier chapitre postule un modèle simple avec un seul paramètre et s 'attaque aux propriétés théoriques de l estimateur de la moyenne. Nous montrons que le double rééchantillonnage que nous proposons et qui tient compte à la fois de la dimension individuelle et la dimension temporelle est valide avec ces modèles. Le rééchantillonnage seulement dans la dimension individuelle n est pas valide en présence d hétérogénéité temporelle. Le ré-échantillonnage dans la dimension temporelle n est pas valide en présence d'hétérogénéité individuelle. Le deuxième chapitre étend le précédent au modèle panel de régression. linéaire. Trois types de régresseurs sont considérés : les caractéristiques individuelles, les caractéristiques temporelles et les régresseurs qui évoluent dans le temps et par individu. En utilisant un modèle à erreurs composées doubles, l'estimateur des moindres carrés ordinaires et la méthode de bootstrap des résidus, on montre que le rééchantillonnage dans la seule dimension individuelle est valide pour l'inférence sur les coe¢ cients associés aux régresseurs qui changent uniquement par individu. Le rééchantillonnage dans la dimen- sion temporelle est valide seulement pour le sous vecteur des paramètres associés aux régresseurs qui évoluent uniquement dans le temps. Le double rééchantillonnage est quand à lui est valide pour faire de l inférence pour tout le vecteur des paramètres. Le troisième chapitre re-examine l exercice de l estimateur de différence en di¤érence de Bertrand, Duflo et Mullainathan (2004). Cet estimateur est couramment utilisé dans la littérature pour évaluer l impact de certaines poli- tiques publiques. L exercice empirique utilise des données de panel provenant du Current Population Survey sur le salaire des femmes dans les 50 états des Etats-Unis d Amérique de 1979 à 1999. Des variables de pseudo-interventions publiques au niveau des états sont générées et on s attend à ce que les tests arrivent à la conclusion qu il n y a pas d e¤et de ces politiques placebos sur le salaire des femmes. Bertrand, Du o et Mullainathan (2004) montre que la non-prise en compte de l hétérogénéité et de la dépendance temporelle entraîne d importantes distorsions de niveau de test lorsqu'on évalue l'impact de politiques publiques en utilisant des données de panel. Une des solutions préconisées est d utiliser la méthode de bootstrap. La méthode de double ré-échantillonnage développée dans cette thèse permet de corriger le problème de niveau de test et donc d'évaluer correctement l'impact des politiques publiques.