Residence Time Distribution (Rtd) Associated with Statistical Weighted Moments to Fit Mathematical Models Using In Industrial Systems Diagnosis

This work presents a computational, called MOMENTS, code developed to be used in process control to determine a characteristic transfer function to industrial units when radiotracer techniques were been applied to study the unit´s performance. The methodology is based on the measuring the residence time distribution function (RTD) and calculate the first and second temporal moments of the tracer data obtained by two scintillators detectors NaI positioned to register a complete tracer movement inside the unit. Non linear regression technique has been used to fit various mathematical models and a statistical test was used to select the best result to the transfer function. Using the code MOMENTS, twelve different models can be used to fit a curve and calculate technical parameters to the unit.

Monitoring Infection Risk for Air and Soil Borne Fungal Plant Pathogens using Antibody and DNA Techniques and Mathematical Models describing Environmental Parameters

Economic losses resulting from disease development can be reduced by accurate and early detection of plant pathogens. Early detection can provide the grower with useful information on optimal crop rotation patterns, varietal selections, appropriate control measures, harvest date and post harvest handling. Classical methods for the isolation of pathogens are commonly used only after disease symptoms. This frequently results in a delay in application of control measures at potentially important periods in crop production. This paper describes the application of both antibody and DNA based systems to monitor infection risk of air and soil borne fungal pathogens and the use of this information with mathematical models describing risk of disease associated with environmental parameters.

Applying Mathematical Models to Study the Role of the Immune System in Chronic Myelogenous Leukemia

Although tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) such as imatinib have transformed chronic myelogenous leukemia (CML) into a chronic condition, these therapies are not curative in the majority of cases. Most patients must continue TKI therapy indefinitely, a requirement that is both expensive and that compromises a patient's quality of life. While TKIs are known to reduce leukemic cells' proliferative capacity and to induce apoptosis, their effects on leukemic stem cells, the immune system, and the microenvironment are not fully understood. A more complete understanding of their global therapeutic effects would help us to identify any limitations of TKI monotherapy and to address these issues through novel combination therapies. Mathematical models are a complementary tool to experimental and clinical data that can provide valuable insights into the underlying mechanisms of TKI therapy. Previous modeling efforts have focused on CML patients who show biphasic and triphasic exponential declines in BCR-ABL ratio during therapy. However, our patient data indicates that many patients treated with TKIs show fluctuations in BCR-ABL ratio yet are able to achieve durable remissions. To investigate these fluctuations, we construct a mathematical model that integrates CML with a patient's autologous immune response to the disease. In our model, we define an immune window, which is an intermediate range of leukemic concentrations that lead to an effective immune response against CML. While small leukemic concentrations provide insufficient stimulus, large leukemic concentrations actively suppress a patient's immune system, thus limiting it's ability to respond. Our patient data and modeling results suggest that at diagnosis, a patient's high leukemic concentration is able to suppress their immune system. TKI therapy drives the leukemic population into the immune window, allowing the patient's immune cells to expand and eventually mount an efficient response against the residual CML. This response drives the leukemic population below the immune window, causing the immune population to contract and allowing the leukemia to partially recover. The leukemia eventually reenters the immune window, thus stimulating a sequence of weaker immune responses as the two populations approach equilibrium. We hypothesize that a patient's autologous immune response to CML may explain the fluctuations in BCR-ABL ratio that are regularly seen during TKI therapy. These fluctuations may serve as a signature of a patient's individual immune response to CML. By applying our modeling framework to patient data, we are able to construct an immune profile that can then be used to propose patient-specific combination therapies aimed at further reducing a patient's leukemic burden. Our characterization of a patient's anti-leukemia immune response may be especially valuable in the study of drug resistance, treatment cessation, and combination therapy.

Application of mathematical models to mycotoxins children risk assessment: a case study of Portuguese children exposure to co-occurring mycotoxins in processed cereal-based foods

People, animals and the environment can be exposed to multiple chemicals at once from a variety of sources, but current risk assessment is usually carried out based on one chemical substance at a time. In human health risk assessment, ingestion of food is considered a major route of exposure to many contaminants, namely mycotoxins, a wide group of fungal secondary metabolites that are known to potentially cause toxicity and carcinogenic outcomes. Mycotoxins are commonly found in a variety of foods including those intended for consumption by infants and young children and have been found in processed cereal-based foods available in the Portuguese market. The use of mathematical models, including probabilistic approaches using Monte Carlo simulations, constitutes a prominent issue in human health risk assessment in general and in mycotoxins exposure assessment in particular. The present study aims to characterize, for the first time, the risk associated with the exposure of Portuguese children to single and multiple mycotoxins present in processed cereal-based foods (CBF). Portuguese children (0-3 years old) food consumption data (n=103) were collected using a 3 days food diary. Contamination data concerned the quantification of 12 mycotoxins (aflatoxins, ochratoxin A, fumonisins and trichothecenes) were evaluated in 20 CBF samples marketed in 2014 and 2015 in Lisbon; samples were analyzed by HPLC-FLD, LC-MS/MS and GC-MS. Daily exposure of children to mycotoxins was performed using deterministic and probabilistic approaches. Different strategies were used to treat the left censored data. For aflatoxins, as carcinogenic compounds, the margin of exposure (MoE) was calculated as a ratio of BMDL (benchmark dose lower confidence limit) to the aflatoxin exposure. The magnitude of the MoE gives an indication of the risk level. For the remaining mycotoxins, the output of exposure was compared to the dose reference values (TDI) in order to calculate the hazard quotients (ratio between exposure and a reference dose, HQ). For the cumulative risk assessment of multiple mycotoxins, the concentration addition (CA) concept was used. The combined margin of exposure (MoET) and the hazard index (HI) were calculated for aflatoxins and the remaining mycotoxins, respectively. 71% of CBF analyzed samples were contaminated with mycotoxins (with values below the legal limits) and approximately 56% of the studied children consumed CBF at least once in these 3 days. Preliminary results showed that children exposure to single mycotoxins present in CBF were below the TDI. Aflatoxins MoE and MoET revealed a reduced potential risk by exposure through consumption of CBF (with values around 10000 or more). HQ and HI values for the remaining mycotoxins were below 1. Children are a particularly vulnerable population group to food contaminants and the present results point out an urgent need to establish legal limits and control strategies regarding the presence of multiple mycotoxins in children foods in order to protect their health. The development of packaging materials with antifungal properties is a possible solution to control the growth of moulds and consequently to reduce mycotoxin production, contributing to guarantee the quality and safety of foods intended for children consumption.

An introduction to mathematical models of coagulation-fragmentation processes: a discrete deterministic mean-field approach

We summarise the properties and the fundamental mathematical results associated with basic models which describe coagulation and fragmentation processes in a deterministic manner and in which cluster size is a discrete quantity (an integer multiple of some basic unit size). In particular, we discuss Smoluchowski's equation for aggregation, the Becker-Döring model of simultaneous aggregation and fragmentation, and more general models involving coagulation and fragmentation.

Chebanov law and Vakar formula in mathematical models of complex systems

Ecological models written in a mathematical language L(M) or model language, with a given style or methodology can be considered as a text. It is possible to apply statistical linguistic laws and the experimental results demonstrate that the behaviour of a mathematical model is the same of any literary text of any natural language. A text has the following characteristics: (a) the variables, its transformed functions and parameters are the lexic units or LUN of ecological models; (b) the syllables are constituted by a LUN, or a chain of them, separated by operating or ordering LUNs; (c) the flow equations are words; and (d) the distribution of words (LUM and CLUN) according to their lengths is based on a Poisson distribution, the Chebanov's law. It is founded on Vakar's formula, that is calculated likewise the linguistic entropy for L(M). We will apply these ideas over practical examples using MARIOLA model. In this paper it will be studied the problem of the lengths of the simple lexic units composed lexic units and words of text models, expressing these lengths in number of the primitive symbols, and syllables. The use of these linguistic laws renders it possible to indicate the degree of information given by an ecological model.

Mathematical models for cellular aggregation: the chemotactic instability and clustering formation

In this thesis we present a mathematical formulation of the interaction between microorganisms such as bacteria or amoebae and chemicals, often produced by the organisms themselves. This interaction is called chemotaxis and leads to cellular aggregation. We derive some models to describe chemotaxis. The first is the pioneristic Keller-Segel parabolic-parabolic model and it is derived by two different frameworks: a macroscopic perspective and a microscopic perspective, in which we start with a stochastic differential equation and we perform a mean-field approximation. This parabolic model may be generalized by the introduction of a degenerate diffusion parameter, which depends on the density itself via a power law. Then we derive a model for chemotaxis based on Cattaneo's law of heat propagation with finite speed, which is a hyperbolic model. The last model proposed here is a hydrodynamic model, which takes into account the inertia of the system by a friction force. In the limit of strong friction, the model reduces to the parabolic model, whereas in the limit of weak friction, we recover a hyperbolic model. Finally, we analyze the instability condition, which is the condition that leads to aggregation, and we describe the different kinds of aggregates we may obtain: the parabolic models lead to clusters or peaks whereas the hyperbolic models lead to the formation of network patterns or filaments. Moreover, we discuss the analogy between bacterial colonies and self gravitating systems by comparing the chemotactic collapse and the gravitational collapse (Jeans instability).

Anisotropic dispersion, space competition, and the slowdown of the Neolithic transition

The front speed of the Neolithic (farmer) spread in Europe decreased as it reached Northern latitudes, where the Mesolithic (huntergatherer) population density was higher. Here, we describe a reaction diffusion model with (i) an anisotropic dispersion kernel depending on the Mesolithicpopulation density gradient and (ii) a modified population growth equation. Both effects are related to the space available for the Neolithic population. The model is able to explain the slowdown of the Neolithic front as observed from archaeological data

Time-delayed reaction-diffusion fronts

A time-delayed second-order approximation for the front speed in reaction-dispersion systems was obtained by Fort and Méndez [Phys. Rev. Lett. 82, 867 (1999)]. Here we show that taking proper care of the effect of the time delay on the reactive process yields a different evolution equation and, therefore, an alternate equation for the front speed. We apply the new equation to the Neolithic transition. For this application the new equation yields speeds about 10% slower than the previous one

Reaction-diffusion waves of advance in the transition to agricultural economics

In a previous paper [J.Fort and V.Méndez, Phys. Rev. Lett. 82, 867 (1999)], the possible importance of higher-order terms in a human population wave of advance has been studied. However, only a few such terms were considered. Here we develop a theory including all higher-order terms. Results are in good agreement with the experimental evidence involving the expansion of agriculture in Europe

Time-Delayed Theory of the Neolithic Transition in Europe

The classical wave-of-advance model of the neolithic transition (i.e., the shift from hunter-gatherer to agricultural economies) is based on Fisher's reaction-diffusion equation. Here we present an extension of Einstein's approach to Fickian diffusion, incorporating reaction terms. On this basis we show that second-order terms in the reaction-diffusion equation, which have been neglected up to now, are not in fact negligible but can lead to important corrections. The resulting time-delayed model agrees quite well with observations

Space Competition and Time Delays in Human Range Expansions. Application to the Neolithic Transition

Space competition effects are well-known in many microbiological and ecological systems. Here we analyze such an effectin human populations. The Neolithic transition (change from foraging to farming) was mainly the outcome of a demographic process that spread gradually throughout Europe from the Near East. In Northern Europe, archaeological data show a slowdown on the Neolithic rate of spread that can be related to a high indigenous (Mesolithic) population density hindering the advance as a result of the space competition between the two populations. We measure this slowdown from a database of 902 Early Neolithic sites and develop a time-delayed reaction-diffusion model with space competition between Neolithic and Mesolithic populations, to predict the observed speeds. The comparison of the predicted speed with the observations and with a previous non-delayed model show that both effects, the time delay effect due to the generation lag and the space competition between populations, are crucial in order to understand the observations

Progress in front propagation research

We review the progress in the field of front propagation in recent years. We survey many physical, biophysical and cross-disciplinary applications, including reduced-variable models of combustion flames, Reid's paradox of rapid forest range expansions, the European colonization of North America during the 19th century, the Neolithic transition in Europe from 13 000 to 5000 years ago, the description of subsistence boundaries, the formation of cultural boundaries, the spread of genetic mutations, theory and experiments on virus infections, models of cancer tumors, etc. Recent theoretical advances are unified in a single framework, encompassing very diverse systems such as those with biased random walks, distributed delays, sequential reaction and dispersion, cohabitation models, age structure and systems with several interacting species. Directions for future progress are outlined

Multidelayed random walks: Theory and application to the neolithic transition in Europe

We present a model in which particles (or individuals of a biological population) disperse with a rest time between consecutive motions (or migrations) which may take several possible values from a discrete set. Particles (or individuals) may also react (or reproduce). We derive a new equation for the effective rest time T˜ of the random walk. Application to the neolithic transition in Europe makes it possible to derive more realistic theoretical values for its wavefront speed than those following from the single-delayed framework presented previously [J. Fort and V. Méndez, Phys. Rev. Lett. 82, 867 (1999)]. The new results are consistent with the archaeological observations of this important historical process

Progress in front propagation research

We review the progress in the field of front propagation in recent years. We survey many physical, biophysical and cross-disciplinary applications, including reduced-variable models of combustion flames, Reid's paradox of rapid forest range expansions, the European colonization of North America during the 19th century, the Neolithic transition in Europe from 13 000 to 5000 years ago, the description of subsistence boundaries, the formation of cultural boundaries, the spread of genetic mutations, theory and experiments on virus infections, models of cancer tumors, etc. Recent theoretical advances are unified in a single framework, encompassing very diverse systems such as those with biased random walks, distributed delays, sequential reaction and dispersion, cohabitation models, age structure and systems with several interacting species. Directions for future progress are outlined