Genetic variation in IL28B is associated with chronic hepatitis C and treatment failure: a genome-wide association study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) induces chronic infection in 50% to 80% of infected persons; approximately 50% of these do not respond to therapy. We performed a genome-wide association study to screen for host genetic determinants of HCV persistence and response to therapy. METHODS: The analysis included 1362 individuals: 1015 with chronic hepatitis C and 347 who spontaneously cleared the virus (448 were coinfected with human immunodeficiency virus [HIV]). Responses to pegylated interferon alfa and ribavirin were assessed in 465 individuals. Associations between more than 500,000 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and outcomes were assessed by multivariate logistic regression. RESULTS: Chronic hepatitis C was associated with SNPs in the IL28B locus, which encodes the antiviral cytokine interferon lambda. The rs8099917 minor allele was associated with progression to chronic HCV infection (odds ratio [OR], 2.31; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.74-3.06; P = 6.07 x 10(-9)). The association was observed in HCV mono-infected (OR, 2.49; 95% CI, 1.64-3.79; P = 1.96 x 10(-5)) and HCV/HIV coinfected individuals (OR, 2.16; 95% CI, 1.47-3.18; P = 8.24 x 10(-5)). rs8099917 was also associated with failure to respond to therapy (OR, 5.19; 95% CI, 2.90-9.30; P = 3.11 x 10(-8)), with the strongest effects in patients with HCV genotype 1 or 4. This risk allele was identified in 24% of individuals with spontaneous HCV clearance, 32% of chronically infected patients who responded to therapy, and 58% who did not respond (P = 3.2 x 10(-10)). Resequencing of IL28B identified distinct haplotypes that were associated with the clinical phenotype. CONCLUSIONS: The association of the IL28B locus with natural and treatment-associated control of HCV indicates the importance of innate immunity and interferon lambda in the pathogenesis of HCV infection.

Caught Between Theory and Practice: Government, Market, and Regulatory Failure in Electricity Sector Reforms

The world-wide electricity sector reforms of the early 1990s have revealed the considerable complexities of making market driven reforms in network and infrastructure industries. This paper reflects on the experiences to date with the process and outcomes of marketbased electricity reforms across less-developed, transition and developed economies. The reforms outcomes suggest similar problems facing the electricity sector of these countries though their contexts vary significantly. Many developing and developed economies continue to have investment inadequacy concerns and the need to balance economy efficiency, sustainability and social equity after more than two decades of experience with reforms. We also use a case study of selected countries that in many respects represent the current state of the reform though they are rarely examined. Nepal, Belarus and Ireland are chosen as country-specific case studies for this purpose. We conclude that the changing dynamics of the electricity supply industry (ESI) and policy objectives imply that analysing the success and failure of reforms will indeed remain a complex process.

Liquidity, moral hazard and bank crises

Bank crises, by interrupting liquidity provision, have been viewed as resulting in welfare losses. In a model of banking with moral hazard, we show that second best bank contracts that improve on autarky ex ante require costly crises to occur with positive probability at the interim stage. When bank payoffs are partially appropriable, either directly via imposition of fines or indirectly by the use of bank equity as a collateral, we argue that an appropriately designed ex-ante regime of policy intervention involving conditional monitoring can prevent bank crises.

Structured and unstructured continuous models for Wolbachia infections

We introduce and investigate a series of models for an infection of a diplodiploid host species by the bacterial endosymbiont Wolbachia. The continuous models are characterized by partial vertical transmission, cytoplasmic incompatibility and fitness costs associated with the infection. A particular aspect of interest is competitions between mutually incompatible strains. We further introduce an age-structured model that takes into account different fertility and mortality rates at different stages of the life cycle of the individuals. With only a few parameters, the ordinary differential equation models exhibit already interesting dynamics and can be used to predict criteria under which a strain of bacteria is able to invade a population. Interestingly, but not surprisingly, the age-structured model shows significant differences concerning the existence and stability of equilibrium solutions compared to the unstructured model.

Combining food web and species distribution models for improved community projections

The ability to model biodiversity patterns is of prime importance in this era of severe environmental crisis. Species assemblage along environmental gradient is subject to the interplay of biotic interactions in complement to abiotic environmental filtering. Accounting for complex biotic interactions for a wide array of species remains so far challenging. Here, we propose to use food web models that can infer the potential interaction links between species as a constraint in species distribution models. Using a plant-herbivore (butterfly) interaction dataset, we demonstrate that this combined approach is able to improve both species distribution and community forecasts. Most importantly, this combined approach is very useful in rendering models of more generalist species that have multiple potential interaction links, where gap in the literature may be recurrent. Our combined approach points a promising direction forward to model the spatial variation of entire species interaction networks. Our work has implications for studies of range shifting species and invasive species biology where it may be unknown how a given biota might interact with a potential invader or in future climate.

An Introduction to parametric and non-parametric models for bivariate positive insurance claim severity distributions

We present a real data set of claims amounts where costs related to damage are recorded separately from those related to medical expenses. Only claims with positive costs are considered here. Two approaches to density estimation are presented: a classical parametric and a semi-parametric method, based on transformation kernel density estimation. We explore the data set with standard univariate methods. We also propose ways to select the bandwidth and transformation parameters in the univariate case based on Bayesian methods. We indicate how to compare the results of alternative methods both looking at the shape of the overall density domain and exploring the density estimates in the right tail.

Experimental toxoplasmosis in Balb/c mice. Prevention of vertical disease transmission by treatment and reproductive failure in chronic infection

In a study of congenital transmission during acute infection of Toxoplasma gondii, 23 pregnant Balb/c mice were inoculated orally with two cysts each of the P strain. Eight mice were inoculated 6-11 days after becoming pregnant (Group 1). Eight mice inoculated on the 10th-15th day of pregnancy (Group 2) were treated with 100 mg/kg/day of minocycline 48 h after inoculation. Seven mice inoculated on the 10th-15th day of pregnancy were not treated and served as a control (Group 3). Congenital transmission was evaluated through direct examination of the brains of the pups or by bioassay and serologic tests. Congenital transmission was observed in 20 (60.6%) of the 33 pups of Group 1, in one (3.6%) of the 28 pups of Group 2, and in 13 (54.2%) of the 24 pups of Group 3. Forty-nine Balb/c mice were examined in the study of congenital transmission of T. gondii during chronic infection. The females showed reproductive problems during this phase of infection. It was observed accentuated hypertrophy of the endometrium and myometrium. Only two of the females gave birth. Our results demonstrate that Balb/c mice with acute toxoplasmosis can be used as a model for studies of congenital T. gondii infection. Our observations indicate the potential of this model for testing new chemotherapeutic agents against congenital toxoplasmosis.

Elevated serum f erritin is an independent predictor of severe liver fibrosis, steatosis, and treatment failure in chronic hepatitis C

Background: Infection with the hepatitis C virus (HCV) i s associatedwith hepatic iron accumulation. We performed a comprehensive analysisof serum ferritin levels and of their genetic determinants in thepathogenesis and treatment of patients with chronic hepatitis C enrolledin the Swiss Hepatitis C Cohort Study (SCCS).Methods: Serum ferritin levels at baseline o f therapy with p egylatedinterferon-α ( PEG-IFN-α) and ribavirin or b efore liver biopsy werecorrelated with clinical features of c hronic HCV infection, includingnecroinflammatory activity (N=970), fibrosis (N=980), steatosis (N=886)and response to treatment (N=876). The association b etween highferritin levels (> median) and the endpoints w as assessed b y logisticregression. In addition, a candidate gene analysis as well as a genomewideassociation study (GWAS) of serum ferritin levels were performed.Results: S erum ferritin > sex-specific median was one of the strongestpre-treatment predictors of failure to achieve SVR (P<0.0001, OR=0.46,95% CI=0.34-0.60). This association remained highly significant in amultivariate analysis (P=0.0001, OR=0.32, 95% CI=0.18-0.57), with anodds ratio c omparable to that of IL28B g enotype, and persisted afteradjustment for duration of infection. Additional independent predictors ofnonresponse were viral load, HCV genotype, presence of diabetes, andliver fibrosis stage. Higher serum ferritin levels were also independentlyassociated with severe liver fibrosis (P<0.0001, OR=2.67, 95% CI=1.66-4.28) a nd steatosis (P=0.0034, OR=2.34, 95% CI=1.33-4.12), but n otwith necroinflammatory a ctivity (P=0.3). No significant g eneticdeterminants of serum ferritin levels were identified.Conclusions: Elevated serum ferritin levels are associated withadvanced liver fibrosis, hepatic steatosis, and poor r esponse to IFN-α-based therapy in c hronic hepatitis C, i ndependently from IL28Bgenotype.

Adverse selection, moral hazard, and outlier payment policy

In this article, we analyze the rationale for introducing outlier payments into a prospective payment system for hospitals under adverse selection and moral hazard. The payer has only two instruments: a fixed price for patients whose treatment cost is below a threshold and a cost-sharing rule for outlier patients. We show that a fixed-price policy is optimal when the hospital is sufficiently benevolent. When the hospital is weakly benevolent, a mixed policy solving a trade-off between rent extraction, efficiency, and dumping deterrence must be preferred. We show how the optimal combination of fixed price and partially cost-based payment depends on the degree of benevolence of the hospital, the social cost of public funds, and the distribution of patients severity. [Authors]

Financial constraints and the failure of innovation projects

Theoretical and empirical approaches have stressed the existence of financial constraints in innovative activities of firms. This paper analyses the role of financial obstacles on the likelihood of abandoning an innovation project. Although a large number of innovation projects are abandoned before their completion, the empirical evidence has focused on the determinants of innovation while failed projects have received little attention. Our analysis differentiates between internal and external barriers on the probability of abandoning a project and we examine whether the effects are different depending on the stage of the innovation process. In the empirical analysis carried out for a panel data of potential innovative Spanish firms for the period 2004-2010, we use a bivariate probit model to take into account the simultaneity of financial constraints and the decision to abandon an innovation project. Our results show that financial constraints most affect the probability of abandoning an innovation project during the concept stage and that low-technological manufacturing and non-KIS service sectors are more sensitive to financial constraints.

Financial constraints and the failure of innovation projects

Theoretical and empirical approaches have stressed the existence of financial constraints in innovative activities of firms. This paper analyses the role of financial obstacles on the likelihood of abandoning an innovation project. Although a large number of innovation projects are abandoned before their completion, the empirical evidence has focused on the determinants of innovation while failed projects have received little attention. Our analysis differentiates between internal and external barriers on the probability of abandoning a project and we examine whether the effects are different depending on the stage of the innovation process. In the empirical analysis carried out for a panel data of potential innovative Spanish firms for the period 2004-2010, we use a bivariate probit model to take into account the simultaneity of financial constraints and the decision to abandon an innovation project. Our results show that financial constraints most affect the probability of abandoning an innovation project during the concept stage and that low-technological manufacturing and non-KIS service sectors are more sensitive to financial constraints. Keywords: barriers to innovation, failure of innovation projects, financial constraints JEL Classifications: O31, D21