Power flow for primary distribution networks considering uncertainty in demand and user connection

This paper presents a method for calculating the power flow in distribution networks considering uncertainties in the distribution system. Active and reactive power are used as uncertain variables and probabilistically modeled through probability distribution functions. Uncertainty about the connection of the users with the different feeders is also considered. A Monte Carlo simulation is used to generate the possible load scenarios of the users. The results of the power flow considering uncertainty are the mean values and standard deviations of the variables of interest (voltages in all nodes, active and reactive power flows, etc.), giving the user valuable information about how the network will behave under uncertainty rather than the traditional fixed values at one point in time. The method is tested using real data from a primary feeder system, and results are presented considering uncertainty in demand and also in the connection. To demonstrate the usefulness of the approach, the results are then used in a probabilistic risk analysis to identify potential problems of undervoltage in distribution systems. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

NodePM: A Remote Monitoring Alert System for Energy Consumption Using Probabilistic Techniques

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

The bias in reversing the Box-Cox transformation in time series forecasting: An empirical study based on neural networks

The Box-Cox transformation is a technique mostly utilized to turn the probabilistic distribution of a time series data into approximately normal. And this helps statistical and neural models to perform more accurate forecastings. However, it introduces a bias when the reversion of the transformation is conducted with the predicted data. The statistical methods to perform a bias-free reversion require, necessarily, the assumption of Gaussianity of the transformed data distribution, which is a rare event in real-world time series. So, the aim of this study was to provide an effective method of removing the bias when the reversion of the Box-Cox transformation is executed. Thus, the developed method is based on a focused time lagged feedforward neural network, which does not require any assumption about the transformed data distribution. Therefore, to evaluate the performance of the proposed method, numerical simulations were conducted and the Mean Absolute Percentage Error, the Theil Inequality Index and the Signal-to-Noise ratio of 20-step-ahead forecasts of 40 time series were compared, and the results obtained indicate that the proposed reversion method is valid and justifies new studies. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic ictal EEG sources and temporal lobe epilepsy surgical outcome

Objective - For patients with medication refractory medial temporal lobe epilepsy (MTLE), surgery offers the hope of a cure. However, up to 30% of patients with MTLE continue to experience disabling seizures after surgery. The reasons why some patients do not achieve seizure freedom are poorly understood. A promising theory suggests that epileptogenic networks are broadly distributed in surgically refractory MTLE, involving regions beyond the medial temporal lobe. In this retrospective study, we aimed to investigate the distribution of epileptogenic networks in MTLE using Bayesian distributed EEG source analysis from preoperative ictal onset recordings. This analysis has the advantage of generating maps of source probability, which can be subjected to voxel-based statistical analyses.Methods - We compared 10 patients who achieved post-surgical seizure freedom with 10 patients who continued experiencing seizures after surgery. Voxel-based Wilcoxon tests were employed with correction for multiple comparisons.Results - We observed that ictal EEG source intensities were significantly more likely to occur in lateral temporal and posterior medial temporal regions in patients with continued seizures post-surgery.Conclusions - Our findings support the theory of broader spatial distribution of epileptogenic networks at seizure onset in patients with surgically refractory MTLE.

Probabilistic patterns of interaction: the effects of link-strength variability on food web structure

Patterns of species interactions affect the dynamics of food webs. An important component of species interactions that is rarely considered with respect to food webs is the strengths of interactions, which may affect both structure and dynamics. In natural systems, these strengths are variable, and can be quantified as probability distributions. We examined how variation in strengths of interactions can be described hierarchically, and how this variation impacts the structure of species interactions in predator-prey networks, both of which are important components of ecological food webs. The stable isotope ratios of predator and prey species may be particularly useful for quantifying this variability, and we show how these data can be used to build probabilistic predator-prey networks. Moreover, the distribution of variation in strengths among interactions can be estimated from a limited number of observations. This distribution informs network structure, especially the key role of dietary specialization, which may be useful for predicting structural properties in systems that are difficult to observe. Finally, using three mammalian predator-prey networks ( two African and one Canadian) quantified from stable isotope data, we show that exclusion of link-strength variability results in biased estimates of nestedness and modularity within food webs, whereas the inclusion of body size constraints only marginally increases the predictive accuracy of the isotope-based network. We find that modularity is the consequence of strong link-strengths in both African systems, while nestedness is not significantly present in any of the three predator-prey networks.

Link prediction using a probabilistic description logic

Due to the growing interest in social networks, link prediction has received significant attention. Link prediction is mostly based on graph-based features, with some recent approaches focusing on domain semantics. We propose algorithms for link prediction that use a probabilistic ontology to enhance the analysis of the domain and the unavoidable uncertainty in the task (the ontology is specified in the probabilistic description logic crALC). The scalability of the approach is investigated, through a combination of semantic assumptions and graph-based features. We evaluate empirically our proposal, and compare it with standard solutions in the literature.

A probabilistic model estimating oil spill clean-up costs - a case study for the Gulf of Finland

Existing models estimating oil spill costs at sea are based on data from the past, and they usually lack a systematic approach. This make them passive, and limits their ability to forecast the effect of the changes in the oil combating fleet or location of a spill on the oil spill costs. In this paper we make an attempt towards the development of a probabilistic and systematic model estimating the costs of clean-up operations for the Gulf of Finland. For this purpose we utilize expert knowledge along with the available data and information from literature. Then, the obtained information is combined into a framework with the use of a Bayesian Belief Networks. Due to lack of data, we validate the model by comparing its results with existing models, with which we found good agreement. We anticipate that the presented model can contribute to the cost-effective oil-combating fleet optimization for the Gulf of Finland. It can also facilitate the accident consequences estimation in the framework of formal safety assessment (FSA).

Ensemble transcript interaction networks: A case study on Alzheimer's disease

Systems biology techniques are a topic of recent interest within the neurological field. Computational intelligence (CI) addresses this holistic perspective by means of consensus or ensemble techniques ultimately capable of uncovering new and relevant findings. In this paper, we propose the application of a CI approach based on ensemble Bayesian network classifiers and multivariate feature subset selection to induce probabilistic dependences that could match or unveil biological relationships. The research focuses on the analysis of high-throughput Alzheimer's disease (AD) transcript profiling. The analysis is conducted from two perspectives. First, we compare the expression profiles of hippocampus subregion entorhinal cortex (EC) samples of AD patients and controls. Second, we use the ensemble approach to study four types of samples: EC and dentate gyrus (DG) samples from both patients and controls. Results disclose transcript interaction networks with remarkable structures and genes not directly related to AD by previous studies. The ensemble is able to identify a variety of transcripts that play key roles in other neurological pathologies. Classical statistical assessment by means of non-parametric tests confirms the relevance of the majority of the transcripts. The ensemble approach pinpoints key metabolic mechanisms that could lead to new findings in the pathogenesis and development of AD

Modelling uncertainty of flood quantile estimation at ungauged sites by Bayesian networks

Prediction at ungauged sites is essential for water resources planning and management. Ungauged sites have no observations about the magnitude of floods, but some site and basin characteristics are known. Regression models relate physiographic and climatic basin characteristics to flood quantiles, which can be estimated from observed data at gauged sites. However, these models assume linear relationships between variables Prediction intervals are estimated by the variance of the residuals in the estimated model. Furthermore, the effect of the uncertainties in the explanatory variables on the dependent variable cannot be assessed. This paper presents a methodology to propagate the uncertainties that arise in the process of predicting flood quantiles at ungauged basins by a regression model. In addition, Bayesian networks were explored as a feasible tool for predicting flood quantiles at ungauged sites. Bayesian networks benefit from taking into account uncertainties thanks to their probabilistic nature. They are able to capture non-linear relationships between variables and they give a probability distribution of discharges as result. The methodology was applied to a case study in the Tagus basin in Spain.

Disparate connectivity for structural and functional networks is revealed when physical location of the connected nodes is considered

Macroscopic brain networks have been widely described with the manifold of metrics available using graph theory. However, most analyses do not incorporate information about the physical position of network nodes. Here, we provide a multimodal macroscopic network characterization while considering the physical positions of nodes. To do so, we examined anatomical and functional macroscopic brain networks in a sample of twenty healthy subjects. Anatomical networks are obtained with a graph based tractography algorithm from diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance images (DW-MRI). Anatomical con- nections identified via DW-MRI provided probabilistic constraints for determining the connectedness of 90 dif- ferent brain areas. Functional networks are derived from temporal linear correlations between blood-oxygenation level-dependent signals derived from the same brain areas. Rentian Scaling analysis, a technique adapted from very- large-scale integration circuits analyses, shows that func- tional networks are more random and less optimized than the anatomical networks. We also provide a new metric that allows quantifying the global connectivity arrange- ments for both structural and functional networks. While the functional networks show a higher contribution of inter-hemispheric connections, the anatomical networks highest connections are identified in a dorsal?ventral arrangement. These results indicate that anatomical and functional networks present different connectivity organi- zations that can only be identified when the physical locations of the nodes are included in the analysis.

Learning Bayesian networks from data by the incremental compilation of new network polynomials

Probabilistic graphical models are a huge research field in artificial intelligence nowadays. The scope of this work is the study of directed graphical models for the representation of discrete distributions. Two of the main research topics related to this area focus on performing inference over graphical models and on learning graphical models from data. Traditionally, the inference process and the learning process have been treated separately, but given that the learned models structure marks the inference complexity, this kind of strategies will sometimes produce very inefficient models. With the purpose of learning thinner models, in this master thesis we propose a new model for the representation of network polynomials, which we call polynomial trees. Polynomial trees are a complementary representation for Bayesian networks that allows an efficient evaluation of the inference complexity and provides a framework for exact inference. We also propose a set of methods for the incremental compilation of polynomial trees and an algorithm for learning polynomial trees from data using a greedy score+search method that includes the inference complexity as a penalization in the scoring function.

Expressive power of binary relevance and chain classifiers based on Bayesian Networks for multi-label classification

Bayesian network classifiers are widely used in machine learning because they intuitively represent causal relations. Multi-label classification problems require each instance to be assigned a subset of a defined set of h labels. This problem is equivalent to finding a multi-valued decision function that predicts a vector of h binary classes. In this paper we obtain the decision boundaries of two widely used Bayesian network approaches for building multi-label classifiers: Multi-label Bayesian network classifiers built using the binary relevance method and Bayesian network chain classifiers. We extend our previous single-label results to multi-label chain classifiers, and we prove that, as expected, chain classifiers provide a more expressive model than the binary relevance method.

Development of a fuzzy control based self-adaptive system for energy saving in constrained networks for the Internet of Things

Las redes del futuro, incluyendo las redes de próxima generación, tienen entre sus objetivos de diseño el control sobre el consumo de energía y la conectividad de la red. Estos objetivos cobran especial relevancia cuando hablamos de redes con capacidades limitadas, como es el caso de las redes de sensores inalámbricos (WSN por sus siglas en inglés). Estas redes se caracterizan por estar formadas por dispositivos de baja o muy baja capacidad de proceso y por depender de baterías para su alimentación. Por tanto la optimización de la energía consumida se hace muy importante. Son muchas las propuestas que se han realizado para optimizar el consumo de energía en este tipo de redes. Quizás las más conocidas son las que se basan en la planificación coordinada de periodos de actividad e inactividad, siendo una de las formas más eficaces para extender el tiempo de vida de las baterías. La propuesta que se presenta en este trabajo se basa en el control de la conectividad mediante una aproximación probabilística. La idea subyacente es que se puede esperar que una red mantenga la conectividad si todos sus nodos tienen al menos un número determinado de vecinos. Empleando algún mecanismo que mantenga ese número, se espera que se pueda mantener la conectividad con un consumo energético menor que si se empleara una potencia de transmisión fija que garantizara una conectividad similar. Para que el mecanismo sea eficiente debe tener la menor huella posible en los dispositivos donde se vaya a emplear. Por eso se propone el uso de un sistema auto-adaptativo basado en control mediante lógica borrosa. En este trabajo se ha diseñado e implementado el sistema descrito, y se ha probado en un despliegue real confirmando que efectivamente existen configuraciones posibles que permiten mantener la conectividad ahorrando energía con respecto al uso de una potencia de transmisión fija. ABSTRACT. Among the design goals for future networks, including next generation networks, we can find the energy consumption and the connectivity. These two goals are of special relevance when dealing with constrained networks. That is the case of Wireless Sensors Networks (WSN). These networks consist of devices with low or very low processing capabilities. They also depend on batteries for their operation. Thus energy optimization becomes a very important issue. Several proposals have been made for optimizing the energy consumption in this kind of networks. Perhaps the best known are those based on the coordinated planning of active and sleep intervals. They are indeed one of the most effective ways to extend the lifetime of the batteries. The proposal presented in this work uses a probabilistic approach to control the connectivity of a network. The underlying idea is that it is highly probable that the network will have a good connectivity if all the nodes have a minimum number of neighbors. By using some mechanism to reach that number, we hope that we can preserve the connectivity with a lower energy consumption compared to the required one if a fixed transmission power is used to achieve a similar connectivity. The mechanism must have the smallest footprint possible on the devices being used in order to be efficient. Therefore a fuzzy control based self-adaptive system is proposed. This work includes the design and implementation of the described system. It also has been validated in a real scenario deployment. We have obtained results supporting that there exist configurations where it is possible to get a good connectivity saving energy when compared to the use of a fixed transmission power for a similar connectivity.

Accelerating, hyperaccelerating, and decelerating networks

Many growing networks possess accelerating statistics where the number of links added with each new node is an increasing function of network size so the total number of links increases faster than linearly with network size. In particular, biological networks can display a quadratic growth in regulator number with genome size even while remaining sparsely connected. These features are mutually incompatible in standard treatments of network theory which typically require that every new network node possesses at least one connection. To model sparsely connected networks, we generalize existing approaches and add each new node with a probabilistic number of links to generate either accelerating, hyperaccelerating, or even decelerating network statistics in different regimes. Under preferential attachment for example, slowly accelerating networks display stationary scale-free statistics relatively independent of network size while more rapidly accelerating networks display a transition from scale-free to exponential statistics with network growth. Such transitions explain, for instance, the evolutionary record of single-celled organisms which display strict size and complexity limits.