Harmonic Distortion State Estimation Using an Evolutionary Strategy

This paper presents a new methodology to estimate harmonic distortions in a power system, based on measurements of a limited number of given sites. The algorithm utilizes evolutionary strategies (ES), a development branch of evolutionary algorithms. The main advantage in using such a technique relies upon its modeling facilities as well as its potential to solve fairly complex problems. The problem-solving algorithm herein proposed makes use of data from various power-quality (PQ) meters, which can either be synchronized by high technology global positioning system devices or by using information from a fundamental frequency load flow. This second approach makes the overall PQ monitoring system much less costly. The algorithm is applied to an IEEE test network, for which sensitivity analysis is performed to determine how the parameters of the ES can be selected so that the algorithm performs in an effective way. Case studies show fairly promising results and the robustness of the proposed method.

Sampled Control for Mean-Variance Hedging in a Jump Diffusion Financial Market

In this technical note we consider the mean-variance hedging problem of a jump diffusion continuous state space financial model with the re-balancing strategies for the hedging portfolio taken at discrete times, a situation that more closely reflects real market conditions. A direct expression based on some change of measures, not depending on any recursions, is derived for the optimal hedging strategy as well as for the ""fair hedging price"" considering any given payoff. For the case of a European call option these expressions can be evaluated in a closed form.

Sugar and ethanol production as a rural development strategy in Brazil: Evidence from the state of Sao Paulo

Sugar and ethanol production are key components of Brazil`s rural development and energy strategies, yet in recent years sugar production has been widely criticized for its environmental and labor practices. This study examines the relationship between rural development and sugarcane, ethanol, and cattle production in the state of Sao Paulo. Our results suggest that the value added components of sugarcane production, which include sugar refining and ethanol production, may have a strong positive affect on local human development in comparison to primary agricultural production activities and other land uses. These results imply that sugar production, when accompanied by a local processing industry can stimulate rural development. However, this paper also highlights the significant environmental and social harms generated by the sugar industry at large, which may undermine its development benefits if not addressed. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Pricing farm-level agricultural insurance: a Bayesian approach

This paper applies Hierarchical Bayesian Models to price farm-level yield insurance contracts. This methodology considers the temporal effect, the spatial dependence and spatio-temporal models. One of the major advantages of this framework is that an estimate of the premium rate is obtained directly from the posterior distribution. These methods were applied to a farm-level data set of soybean in the State of the Parana (Brazil), for the period between 1994 and 2003. The model selection was based on a posterior predictive criterion. This study improves considerably the estimation of the fair premium rates considering the small number of observations.

Spatio-temporal modeling of agricultural yield data with an application to pricing crop insurance contracts

This article presents a statistical model of agricultural yield data based on a set of hierarchical Bayesian models that allows joint modeling of temporal and spatial autocorrelation. This method captures a comprehensive range of the various uncertainties involved in predicting crop insurance premium rates as opposed to the more traditional ad hoc, two-stage methods that are typically based on independent estimation and prediction. A panel data set of county-average yield data was analyzed for 290 counties in the State of Parana (Brazil) for the period of 1990 through 2002. Posterior predictive criteria are used to evaluate different model specifications. This article provides substantial improvements in the statistical and actuarial methods often applied to the calculation of insurance premium rates. These improvements are especially relevant to situations where data are limited.

Parametric and nonparametric statistical modelling of crop yield: implications for pricing crop insurance contracts

This article considers alternative methods to calculate the fair premium rate of crop insurance contracts based on county yields. The premium rate was calculated using parametric and nonparametric approaches to estimate the conditional agricultural yield density. These methods were applied to a data set of county yield provided by the Statistical and Geography Brazilian Institute (IBGE), for the period of 1990 through 2002, for soybean, corn and wheat, in the State of Paran. In this article, we propose methodological alternatives to pricing crop insurance contracts resulting in more accurate premium rates in a situation of limited data.

Transmission of Methylobacterium mesophilicum by Bucephalogonia xanthophis for Paratransgenic Control Strategy of Citrus Variegated Chlorosis

Methylobacterium mesophilicum, originally isolated as an endophytic bacterium from citrus plants, was genetically transformed to express green fluorescent protein (GFP). The GFP-labeled strain of M. mesophilicum was inoculated into Catharanthus roseus (model plant) seedlings and further observed colonizing its xylem vessels. The transmission of this endophyte by Bucephalogonia xanthophis, one of the insect vectors that transmit Xylella fastidiosa subsp. pauca, was verified by insects feeding from fluids containing the GFP bacterium followed by transmission to plants and isolating the endophyte from C. roseus plants. Forty-five days after inoculation, the plants exhibited endophytic colonization by M. mesophilicum, confirming this bacterium as a nonpathogenic, xylem-associated endophyte. Our data demonstrate that M. mesophilicum not only occupy the same niche of X. fastidiosa subsp. pauca inside plants but also may be transmitted by B. xanthophis. The transmission, colonization, and genetic manipulation of M. mesophilicum is a prerequisite to examining the potential use of symbiotic control to interrupt the transmission of X. fastidiosa subsp. pauca, the bacterial pathogen causing Citrus variegated chlorosis by insect vectors.

Microparticles as a Strategy for Low-Molecular-Weight Heparin Delivery

The aims of this work were preparation and physical-chemical characterization of a microparticulate release system for delivery of enoxaparin sodium (ENX), a low-molecular-weight heparin, as a potential vehicle for optimization of deep venous thrombosis therapy. Microparticles (MPs) containing ENX were prepared from polylactide-co-glycolic acid [PLGA; (50: 50)] by a double emulsification/solvent evaporation method. The preparation parameters, such as proportion ENX/PLGA, surfactant concentration, type, time, and speed of stirring, were evaluated. The encapsulation efficiency and yield process were determined and optimized, and the in vitro release profile was analysed at 35 days. The MPs showed a spherical shape with smooth and regular surfaces. The size distribution showed a unimodal profile with an average size of 2.0 +/- 0.9 mu m. The low encapsulation efficiency (< 30%), characteristic of hydrophilic macromolecules was improved, reaching 50.2% with a procedure yield of 71.3%. The in vitro profile of ENX release from the MPs was evaluated and showed pseudo-zero-order kinetics. This indicated that diffusion was the main drug release mechanism. (C) 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc. and the American Pharmacists Association J Pharm Sci 100:1783-1792, 2011

Prostaglandin E(2)-loaded microspheres as strategy to inhibit phagocytosis and modulate inflammatory mediators release

PGE(2), an arachidonic acid metabolite produced by various type of cells regulates a broad range of physiological activities in the endocrine, cardiovascular, gastrointestinal, and immune systems, and is involved in maintaining the local homeostasis. In the immune system, PGE(2) is mainly produced by APCs and it can suppress the Th1-mediated immune responses. The aim of this study was to develop PGE(2)-loaded biodegradable MS that prolong and sustain the in vivo release of this mediator. An o/w emulsion solvent extraction-evaporation method was chosen to prepare the MS. We determined their diameters, evaluated the in vitro release of PGE(2), using enzyme immunoassay and MS uptake by peritoneal macrophages. To assess the preservation of biological activities of this mediator, we determined the effect of PGE(2) released from MS on LPS-induced TNF-alpha release by murine peritoneal macrophages. We also analyzed the effect of encapsulated PGE(2) on inflammatory mediators release from HUVECs. Finally, we studied the effect of PGE(2) released from biodegradable MS in sepsis animal model. The use of this formulation can provide an alternative strategy for treating infections, by modulating or inhibiting inflammatory responses, especially when they constitute an exacerbated profile. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A two-phase strategy for detecting recombination in nucleotide sequences

Genetic recombination can produce heterogeneous phylogenetic histories within a set of homologous genes. Delineating recombination events is important in the study of molecular evolution, as inference of such events provides a clearer picture of the phylogenetic relationships among different gene sequences or genomes. Nevertheless, detecting recombination events can be a daunting task, as the performance of different recombination-detecting approaches can vary, depending on evolutionary events that take place after recombination. We previously evaluated the effects of post-recombination events on the prediction accuracy of recombination-detecting approaches using simulated nucleotide sequence data. The main conclusion, supported by other studies, is that one should not depend on a single method when searching for recombination events. In this paper, we introduce a two-phase strategy, applying three statistical measures to detect the occurrence of recombination events, and a Bayesian phylogenetic approach to delineate breakpoints of such events in nucleotide sequences. We evaluate the performance of these approaches using simulated data, and demonstrate the applicability of this strategy to empirical data. The two-phase strategy proves to be time-efficient when applied to large datasets, and yields high-confidence results.

Renewing Australia's mental health strategy

The Second National Mental Health Plan, endorsed by Commonwealth, State and Territory governments on 30 July 1998, will pursue three key themes: (1) Promoting mental health, plus prevention of and early intervention in mental disorders, with a specific focus on depression; (2) continuing structural reform of mental health services, including better integration with general practice and the private psychiatric sector; and (3) implementing quality and outcome measures in mental health services, including evidence-based practice.

A bleach program for inmates in NSW: an HIV prevention strategy

Syringe cleaning guidelines for injecting drug users (IDUs) were revised in 1993. This paper examines efforts by IDUs in NSW prisons to adopt the revised guidelines in 1994. Consecutive inmates (229) nearing release were visited and asked to call a toll free number for an interview once released. Respondents (102) did not differ from non-respondents (127). Many respondents (64%) reported ever injecting and many of these reported injecting (58%), sharing (48%) and syringe cleaning (46%) when last in prison. Some (23%) respondents reported adopting the revised syringe cleaning guidelines. Tattooing (38%) was reported more often than sexual activity in prison (4%). A new methodology for prison research was found to be feasible in this study. The potential for HIV to spread in prison still poses major public health challenges.