Life-cycle preferences over consumption and health: when is cost-effectiveness analysis equivalent to cost-benefit analysis?

This paper studies life-cycle preferences over consumption and health status. We show that cost-effectiveness analysis is consistent with cost-benefit analysis if the Lifetime utility function is additive over time, multiplicative in the utility of consumption and the utility of health status, and if the utility of consumption is constant over time. We derive the conditions under which the lifetime utility function takes this form, both under expected utility theory and under rank-dependent utility theory, which is currently the most important nonexpected utility theory. If cost-effectiveness analysis is consistent with cost-benefit analysis, it is possible to derive tractable expressions for the willingness to pay for quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). The willingness to pay for QALYs depends on wealth, remaining life expectancy, health status, and the possibilities for intertemporal substitution of consumption. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Is there change over time in the season-of-birth effect for schizophrenia? Data from the southern hemisphere

The aim of this paper is to examine distributions of schizophrenia and general population births over time in order to determine whether (a) the pattern has changed over time, (b) any pattern was similar for both males and females, and (c) whether there is any indication that there is any relationship between the changes in pattern between schizophrenia and general population births. Birth month and year for 7807 individuals with ICD8/9 schizophrenia were gained from the Queensland Mental Health Statistical System for 1914-1975. Monthly births for the general population in Queensland for the same period were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. For each decade we obtained two comparisons, (1) between two 'seasons' (summer-autumn/winter-spring), and (2) between the third (coldest) quarter and the remaining quarters. Based on expected contrasts from general population proportions, odds ratios and their confidence intervals were used to analyse these comparisons for all subjects, and for males and females separately. The seasonality found in our previous studies was again evident (OR 1.09; 95% CI= 1.01-1.17). However there was no significant change in its pattern over time either for the total group or for males and females separately. When the general population births alone were examined using the same contrasts, seasonality was also observed, but here there were fluctuations over time. These results suggest that exposures linked to changes in general population births over time should be examined in disorders such as schizophrenia which demonstrate seasonality in births. The Stanley Foundation supported this project.

U-q[(sl(2)over-cap vertical bar 1)] vertex operators, screen currents, and correlation functions at an arbitrary level

Bosonized q-vertex operators related to the four-dimensional evaluation modules of the quantum affine superalgebra U-q[sl((2) over cap\1)] are constructed for arbitrary level k=alpha, where alpha not equal 0,-1 is a complex parameter appearing in the four-dimensional evaluation representations. They are intertwiners among the level-alpha highest weight Fock-Wakimoto modules. Screen currents which commute with the action of U-q[sl((2) over cap/1)] up to total differences are presented. Integral formulas for N-point functions of type I and type II q-vertex operators are proposed. (C) 2000 American Institute of Physics. [S0022-2488(00)00608-3].

Level-one highest weight representation of U-q[sl((N)over-cap vertical bar 1)] and Bosonization of the multicomponent Super t-J model

We study the level-one irreducible highest weight representations of the quantum affine superalgebra U-q[sl((N) over cap\1)], and calculate their characters and supercharacters. We obtain bosonized q-vertex operators acting on the irreducible U-q[sl((N) over cap\1)] modules and derive the exchange relations satisfied by the vertex operators. We give the bosonization of the multicomponent super t-J model by using the bosonized vertex operators. (C) 2000 American Institute of Physics. [S0022- 2488(00)00508-9].

The advantages of theft over toil: The design inference and arguing from ignorance

Intelligent design theorist William Dembski has proposed an explanatory filter for distinguishing between events due to chance, lawful regularity or design. We show that if Dembski's filter were adopted as a scientific heuristic, some classical developments in science would not be rational, and that Dembski's assertion that the filter reliably identifies rarefied design requires ignoring the state of background knowledge. If background information changes even slightly, the filter's conclusion will vary wildly. Dembski fails to overcome Hume's objections to arguments from design.

A strategy to fill gaps in soil survey over large spatial extents: an example from the Murray-Darling basin of Australia

We re-mapped the soils of the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) in 1995-1998 with a minimum of new fieldwork, making the most out of existing data. We collated existing digital soil maps and used inductive spatial modelling to predict soil types from those maps combined with environmental predictor variables. Lithology, Landsat Multi Spectral Scanner (Landsat MSS), the 9-s digital elevation model (DEM) of Australia and derived terrain attributes, all gridded to 250-m pixels, were the predictor variables. Because the basin-wide datasets were very large data mining software was used for modelling. Rule induction by data mining was also used to define the spatial domain of extrapolation for the extension of soil-landscape models from existing soil maps. Procedures to estimate the uncertainty associated with the predictions and quality of information for the new soil-landforms map of the MDB are described. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Predicting sheetwash and rill erosion over the Australian continent

Soil erosion is a major environmental issue in Australia. It reduces land productivity and has off-site effects of decreased water quality. Broad-scale spatially distributed soil erosion estimation is essential for prioritising erosion control programs and as a component of broader assessments of natural resource condition. This paper describes spatial modelling methods and results that predict sheetwash and rill erosion over the Australian continent using the revised universal soil loss equation (RUSLE) and spatial data layers for each of the contributing environmental factors. The RUSLE has been used before in this way but here we advance the quality of estimation. We use time series of remote sensing imagery and daily rainfall to incorporate the effects of seasonally varying cover and rainfall intensity, and use new digital maps of soil and terrain properties. The results are compared with a compilation of Australian erosion plot data, revealing an acceptable consistency between predictions and observations. The modelling results show that: (1) the northern part of Australia has greater erosion potential than the south; (2) erosion potential differs significantly between summer and winter; (3) the average erosion rate is 4.1 t/ha. year over the continent and about 2.9 x 10(9) tonnes of soil is moved annually which represents 3.9% of global soil erosion from 5% of world land area; and (4) the erosion rate has increased from 4 to 33 times on average for agricultural lands compared with most natural vegetated lands.

The Arabidopsis mutant iop1 exhibits induced over-expression of the plant defensin gene PDF1.2 and enhanced pathogen resistance

Jasmonate and ethylene are concomitantly involved in the induction of the Arabidopsis plant defensin gene PDF1.2. To define genes in the signal transduction pathway leading to the induction of PDF1.2, we screened for-mutants with induced over-expression of a beta-glucuronidase reporter, under the control of the PDF1.2 promoter. One mutant, iop1 (induced over-expressor of PDF1.2) produced small plants that showed induced over-expression of the pathogenesis-related genes PR-3, PR-4 and PR-1,2 (PDF1.2), combined with a down-regulated induction of PR-1 upon pathogen inoculation. The iop1 mutant showed enhanced resistance to a number of necrotrophic pathogens.