Phase 1: Florida's ocean and coastal economics report

This report was prepared for and funded by the Florida State Department of Environmental Protection with the encouragement of members from the Florida Ocean Alliance, Florida Oceans and Coastal Resources Council and other groups with deep interests in the future of Florida’s coast. It is a preliminary study of Florida’s Ocean and Coastal Economies based only on information currently found within the datasets of the National Ocean Economics Program. (NOEP). It reflects only a portion of the value of Florida’s coastal related economy and should not be considered comprehensive. A more customized study based on the unique coastal and ocean-dependent economic activities of the State of Florida should be carried out to complete the picture of Florida’s dependence upon its coasts. (PDF has 129 pages.)

An Economics Guide to Allocation of Fish Stocks between Commercial and Recreational Fisheries

The increasingly intense competition between commercial and recreational fishermen for access to fish stocks has focused attention on the economic implications of fishery allocations. Indeed, one can scarcely find a management plan or amendment that does not at least refer to the relative food and sport values of fish and to how expenditures by commercial and recreational fishermen on equipment and supplies stimulate the economy. However, many of the arguments raised by constituents to influence such allocations, while having an seemingly "economics" ring to them, are usually incomplete, distorted, and even incorrect. This report offers fishery managers and other interested parties a guide to correct notions of economic value and to the appropriate ways to characterize, estimate, and compare value. In particular, introductory material from benefitcost analysis and input-output analysis is described and illustrated. In the process, several familiar specious arguments are exposed.(PDF file contains 34 pages.)

The Economics of Gasification: A Market-Based Approach

This paper deals with the economics of gasification facilities in general and IGCC power plants in particular. Regarding the prospects of these systems, passing the technological test is one thing, passing the economic test can be quite another. In this respect, traditional valuations assume constant input and/or output prices. Since this is hardly realistic, we allow for uncertainty in prices. We naturally look at the markets where many of the products involved are regularly traded. Futures markets on commodities are particularly useful for valuing uncertain future cash flows. Thus, revenues and variable costs can be assessed by means of sound financial concepts and actual market data. On the other hand, these complex systems provide a number of flexibility options (e.g., to choose among several inputs, outputs, modes of operation, etc.). Typically, flexibility contributes significantly to the overall value of real assets. Indeed, maximization of the asset value requires the optimal exercise of any flexibility option available. Yet the economic value of flexibility is elusive, the more so under (price) uncertainty. And the right choice of input fuels and/or output products is a main concern for the facility managers. As a particular application, we deal with the valuation of input flexibility. We follow the Real Options approach. In addition to economic variables, we also address technical and environmental issues such as energy efficiency, utility performance characteristics and emissions (note that carbon constraints are looming). Lastly, a brief introduction to some stochastic processes suitable for valuation purposes is provided.

Economics of co-managing water quality and invasive species for California and Baja California coastal boats

Regulatory action to protect California’s coastal water quality from degradation by copper from recreational boats’ antifouling paints interacts with efforts to prevent transport of invasive, hull-fouling species. A copper regulatory program is in place for a major yacht basin in northern San Diego Bay and in process for other major, California boat basins. “Companion” fouling control strategies are used with copper-based antifouling paints, as some invasive species have developed resistance to the copper biocide. Such strategies are critical for boats with less toxic or nontoxic hull coatings. Boat traffic along over 3,000 miles of coastline in California and Baja California increases invasive species transport risks. For example, 80% of boats in Baja California marinas are from the United States, especially California. Policy makers, boating businesses and boat owners need information on costs and supply-side capacity for effective fouling control measures to co-manage water quality and invasive species concerns. (PDF contains 3 pages)

Efficient methods for empirical tests of behavioral economics theories in laboratory and field experiments

In the quest for a descriptive theory of decision-making, the rational actor model in economics imposes rather unrealistic expectations and abilities on human decision makers. The further we move from idealized scenarios, such as perfectly competitive markets, and ambitiously extend the reach of the theory to describe everyday decision making situations, the less sense these assumptions make. Behavioural economics has instead proposed models based on assumptions that are more psychologically realistic, with the aim of gaining more precision and descriptive power. Increased psychological realism, however, comes at the cost of a greater number of parameters and model complexity. Now there are a plethora of models, based on different assumptions, applicable in differing contextual settings, and selecting the right model to use tends to be an ad-hoc process. In this thesis, we develop optimal experimental design methods and evaluate different behavioral theories against evidence from lab and field experiments.

We look at evidence from controlled laboratory experiments. Subjects are presented with choices between monetary gambles or lotteries. Different decision-making theories evaluate the choices differently and would make distinct predictions about the subjects' choices. Theories whose predictions are inconsistent with the actual choices can be systematically eliminated. Behavioural theories can have multiple parameters requiring complex experimental designs with a very large number of possible choice tests. This imposes computational and economic constraints on using classical experimental design methods. We develop a methodology of adaptive tests: Bayesian Rapid Optimal Adaptive Designs (BROAD) that sequentially chooses the "most informative" test at each stage, and based on the response updates its posterior beliefs over the theories, which informs the next most informative test to run. BROAD utilizes the Equivalent Class Edge Cutting (EC²) criteria to select tests. We prove that the EC² criteria is adaptively submodular, which allows us to prove theoretical guarantees against the Bayes-optimal testing sequence even in the presence of noisy responses. In simulated ground-truth experiments, we find that the EC² criteria recovers the true hypotheses with significantly fewer tests than more widely used criteria such as Information Gain and Generalized Binary Search. We show, theoretically as well as experimentally, that surprisingly these popular criteria can perform poorly in the presence of noise, or subject errors. Furthermore, we use the adaptive submodular property of EC² to implement an accelerated greedy version of BROAD which leads to orders of magnitude speedup over other methods.

We use BROAD to perform two experiments. First, we compare the main classes of theories for decision-making under risk, namely: expected value, prospect theory, constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) and moments models. Subjects are given an initial endowment, and sequentially presented choices between two lotteries, with the possibility of losses. The lotteries are selected using BROAD, and 57 subjects from Caltech and UCLA are incentivized by randomly realizing one of the lotteries chosen. Aggregate posterior probabilities over the theories show limited evidence in favour of CRRA and moments' models. Classifying the subjects into types showed that most subjects are described by prospect theory, followed by expected value. Adaptive experimental design raises the possibility that subjects could engage in strategic manipulation, i.e. subjects could mask their true preferences and choose differently in order to obtain more favourable tests in later rounds thereby increasing their payoffs. We pay close attention to this problem; strategic manipulation is ruled out since it is infeasible in practice, and also since we do not find any signatures of it in our data.

In the second experiment, we compare the main theories of time preference: exponential discounting, hyperbolic discounting, "present bias" models: quasi-hyperbolic (α, β) discounting and fixed cost discounting, and generalized-hyperbolic discounting. 40 subjects from UCLA were given choices between 2 options: a smaller but more immediate payoff versus a larger but later payoff. We found very limited evidence for present bias models and hyperbolic discounting, and most subjects were classified as generalized hyperbolic discounting types, followed by exponential discounting.

In these models the passage of time is linear. We instead consider a psychological model where the perception of time is subjective. We prove that when the biological (subjective) time is positively dependent, it gives rise to hyperbolic discounting and temporal choice inconsistency.

We also test the predictions of behavioral theories in the "wild". We pay attention to prospect theory, which emerged as the dominant theory in our lab experiments of risky choice. Loss aversion and reference dependence predicts that consumers will behave in a uniquely distinct way than the standard rational model predicts. Specifically, loss aversion predicts that when an item is being offered at a discount, the demand for it will be greater than that explained by its price elasticity. Even more importantly, when the item is no longer discounted, demand for its close substitute would increase excessively. We tested this prediction using a discrete choice model with loss-averse utility function on data from a large eCommerce retailer. Not only did we identify loss aversion, but we also found that the effect decreased with consumers' experience. We outline the policy implications that consumer loss aversion entails, and strategies for competitive pricing.

In future work, BROAD can be widely applicable for testing different behavioural models, e.g. in social preference and game theory, and in different contextual settings. Additional measurements beyond choice data, including biological measurements such as skin conductance, can be used to more rapidly eliminate hypothesis and speed up model comparison. Discrete choice models also provide a framework for testing behavioural models with field data, and encourage combined lab-field experiments.

Analysis and Use of Information and Communication Tools in Economics of Climate Change

16 p.

Essays in revealed preference theory and behavioral economics

Time, risk, and attention are all integral to economic decision making. The aim of this work is to understand those key components of decision making using a variety of approaches: providing axiomatic characterizations to investigate time discounting, generating measures of visual attention to infer consumers' intentions, and examining data from unique field settings.

Chapter 2, co-authored with Federico Echenique and Kota Saito, presents the first revealed-preference characterizations of exponentially-discounted utility model and its generalizations. My characterizations provide non-parametric revealed-preference tests. I apply the tests to data from a recent experiment, and find that the axiomatization delivers new insights on a dataset that had been analyzed by traditional parametric methods.

Chapter 3, co-authored with Min Jeong Kang and Colin Camerer, investigates whether "pre-choice" measures of visual attention improve in prediction of consumers' purchase intentions. We measure participants' visual attention using eyetracking or mousetracking while they make hypothetical as well as real purchase decisions. I find that different patterns of visual attention are associated with hypothetical and real decisions. I then demonstrate that including information on visual attention improves prediction of purchase decisions when attention is measured with mousetracking.

Chapter 4 investigates individuals' attitudes towards risk in a high-stakes environment using data from a TV game show, Jeopardy!. I first quantify players' subjective beliefs about answering questions correctly. Using those beliefs in estimation, I find that the representative player is risk averse. I then find that trailing players tend to wager more than "folk" strategies that are known among the community of contestants and fans, and this tendency is related to their confidence. I also find gender differences: male players take more risk than female players, and even more so when they are competing against two other male players.

Chapter 5, co-authored with Colin Camerer, investigates the dynamics of the favorite-longshot bias (FLB) using data on horse race betting from an online exchange that allows bettors to trade "in-play." I find that probabilistic forecasts implied by market prices before start of the races are well-calibrated, but the degree of FLB increases significantly as the events approach toward the end.

Economics and Hawaii's Marine Fisheries

This paper reviews economic research conducted on Hawaii's marine fisheries over the past ten years. The fisheries development and fisheries management context for this research is also considered. The paper finds that new approaches are required for marine fisheries research in Hawaii: A wider scope to include other marine resource and coastal zone issues, and increased and closer collaboration between researchers and the fishing community.

Input-output relationship and economics of pangas monoculture and carp-pangas polyculture in two districts of Bangladesh

An attempt was made to study the input-output relationships and economics of pangas monoculture and carp-pangas polyculture in Bangladesh. By analyzing the data collected from 50 pangas farms and 55 carp-pangas farms, the study has investigated the production systems of two technologies and the effects of fingerling stocking and applications of feed and fertilizer on fisheries income. The data were collected from the fishermen of Trishal and Bhaluka of Mymensingh district, and Kahaloo and Adamdighee of Bogra district during 2001-02. For pangas monoculture, the stocking density was 31,561 per ha while it was 55,017 per ha in carp-pangas polyculture. Most of the farmers used urea, TSP and lime before stocking. Rice and wheat bran happened to be the most common feed ingredients for both types of culture in general. Other important ingredients used were mustard oil-cakes, rice polish, wheat flour, fish meal, bone meal, soybean meal and poultry litter. In terms of quantities, rice bran and wheat bran dominated the farmers list. Rice and wheat bran together constituted about 60% of all studied feeds. Feed cost constituted 59.13% of total costs for pangas monoculture and 67.44% for carp-pangas polyculture. Per ha productions of pangas and carp-pangas in a single culture cycle were 15,508 kg and 19,745 kg, respectively. Per ha gross profits were estimated to be Tk 310,311 and Tk 464,418 for pangas monoculture and carp-pangas polyculture, respectively. Net profit appeared to be Tk 264,216 per ha for pangas monoculture and Tk 416,509 per ha for carp-pangas polyculture. The BCRs calculated were 1.46 and 1.68 for monoculture and polyculture, respectively. The break-even costs per kg of fish were estimated at Tk 36.93 for pangas and Tk 30.93 for mixed species which was much lower than the prices the producers received. Break-even productions were estimated at 10,702 kg per ha for pangas monoculture and 11,784 kg per ha for carp-pangas polyculture. Fingerling and feed cost, and pond size significantly explained the variation of income from pangas monoculture. These factors have significantly influenced the income from the crop. Functional analysis shows that 1% increase in the feed cost might increase 0.51% of pangas income and 0.41% in carp-pangas income. No other inputs had shown this much of responses to increasing income from a fish.

Year-round and rotational freshwater prawn, Macrobrachium rosenbergii and paddy farming: soil quality, production and economics

A study was carried out at five upazillas (Dumuria, Fakirhat, Pirojpur sadar, Gopalgonj sadar and Kalia) of five southern districts of Khulna, Bagerhat, Pirojpur, Gopalgonj and Narail to understand the comparative production performance and any effect on soil quality in case of year-round golda (Macrobrachium rosenbergii), alternate prawn-paddy and year-round paddy farming. A direct interview of 55 farmers was taken, using pretested questionnaire, and soil samples were taken from selected farms before and after each crop. Among the five upazillas, farmers in Gopalgonj sadar and Kalia are not practicing year-round golda. Rotational golda-paddy farming has been recorded to result in maximum profit, with the highest of Tk. 310,912/ha/year in 2003 at Dumuria. Only paddy farming is less profitable than other two cropping patterns, irrespective of study sites. The nutrient status of soil in rotational golda and paddy farming has been found improved, compared to that of only golda or paddy farming.

Socio-economics of fishing communities on Uganda water bodies

Control and management of Uganda fishery resources has been hindered by among other factors the multispecies nature of the resource and the characteristic behaviour of the fishing communities. Fishermen have both genuine and uncompromising attitudes as to why they carry out certain fishing technologies.All fishing activities aim at maximizing the catches or profits while others may fish on a small scale for subsistence. Sensitizing the fisherfolk on the appropriate fishing technologies, importance of a well regulated fishery exploitation and their participation in control and management of the resource would enhance or lead to increased and sustainable fish production. Socio-economics of fishing technologies were therefore examined using prepared questionnaires and reasons why the fishing communities behave the way they do established

Economics of new oncology drug development.

PURPOSE: Review existing studies and provide new results on the development, regulatory, and market aspects of new oncology drug development. METHODS: We utilized data from the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), company surveys, and publicly available commercial business intelligence databases on new oncology drugs approved in the United States and on investigational oncology drugs to estimate average development and regulatory approval times, clinical approval success rates, first-in-class status, and global market diffusion. RESULTS: We found that approved new oncology drugs to have a disproportionately high share of FDA priority review ratings, of orphan drug designations at approval, and of drugs that were granted inclusion in at least one of the FDA's expedited access programs. US regulatory approval times were shorter, on average, for oncology drugs (0.5 years), but US clinical development times were longer on average (1.5 years). Clinical approval success rates were similar for oncology and other drugs, but proportionately more of the oncology failures reached expensive late-stage clinical testing before being abandoned. In relation to other drugs, new oncology drug approvals were more often first-in-class and diffused more widely across important international markets. CONCLUSION: The market success of oncology drugs has induced a substantial amount of investment in oncology drug development in the last decade or so. However, given the great need for further progress, the extent to which efforts to develop new oncology drugs will grow depends on future public-sector investment in basic research, developments in translational medicine, and regulatory reforms that advance drug-development science.

Why are you tall while others are short? Agricultural production and other proximate determinants of global heights

We analyze the proximate determinants of the biological standard of living from a global perspective, namely high-quality nutrition and the disease environment during the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. Until the mid-twentieth century, the local availability of cattle, meat, and milk per capita and the local disease environment mainly determined the stature of the population – and, by implication, how long they lived and how healthy they were. During the late twentieth century, the trade of agricultural products and health-promoting technologies increased in relative importance; hence, the local availabilities became less decisive in explaining height differences.

The Political Economy of Swift's Satires and other Prose Works

Jonathan Swift wrote perceptively about the emerging commercial society
in Britain in the early eighteenth century. His particular focus was on the
financial revolution and its implications for economic and political stability
as well as for shifts of power between the landed and commercial
classes. Following his return to Ireland Swift’s focus shifted to the developmental
problems of his native country. In several pamphlets he advocated
consumption of domestic products, challenged existing political
structures and made trenchant criticisms of absenteeism and other dysfunctional
aspects of the land tenure system. Swift’s politico-economic
concerns are fully reflected in his best known work, Gulliver’s Travels but
his most pointed criticism of the emerging commercial system is contained
in A Modest Proposal. Written in the form of an economic pamphlet, A
Modest Proposal is ostensibly designed to address the problem of poverty
in Ireland. In addition to its implicit criticism of economic policy in Ireland,
the pamphlet challenges the separation of economics and morality as
evidenced in the writings of William Petty and Bernard Mandeville. Swift
parodies Petty’s political arithmetic but it is suggested here that he also
had in his sights the consequentialist reasoning present in the work of
both authors but explicitly so in Mandeville.
Keywords: financial revolution, public debt, paper credit, rationality, political
arithmetic, consequentialism, Petty (William), Mandeville (Bernard)