Optimal reserve management and sovereign debt

Most models currently used to determine optimal foreign reserve holdings take the level of international debt as given. However, given the sovereign`s willingness-to-pay incentive problems, reserve accumulation may reduce sustainable debt levels. In addition, assuming constant debt levels does not allow addressing one of the puzzles behind using reserves as a means to avoid the negative effects of crisis: why do not sovereign countries reduce their sovereign debt instead? To study the joint decision of holding sovereign debt and reserves, we construct a stochastic dynamic equilibrium model calibrated to a sample of emerging markets. We obtain that the reserve accumulation does not play a quantitatively important role in this model. In fact, we find the optimal policy is not to hold reserves at all. This finding is robust to considering interest rate shocks, sudden stops, contingent reserves and reserve dependent output costs. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Optimal estimation of one-parameter quantum channels

We explore the task of optimal quantum channel identification and in particular, the estimation of a general one-parameter quantum process. We derive new characterizations of optimality and apply the results to several examples including the qubit depolarizing channel and the harmonic oscillator damping channel. We also discuss the geometry of the problem and illustrate the usefulness of using entanglement in process estimation.

Effects of Optimal Medical Treatment With or Without Coronary Revascularization on Angina and Subsequent Revascularizations in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and Stable Ischemic Heart Disease

Background-In the Bypass Angioplasty Revascularization Investigation 2 Diabetes (BARI 2D) trial, an initial strategy of coronary revascularization and optimal medical treatment (REV) compared with an initial optimal medical treatment with the option of subsequent revascularization (MED) did not reduce all-cause mortality or the composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, and stroke in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and stable ischemic heart disease. In the same population, we tested whether the REV strategy was superior to the MED strategy in preventing worsening and new angina and subsequent coronary revascularizations. Methods and Results-Among the 2364 men and women (mean age, 62.4 years) with type 2 diabetes mellitus, documented coronary artery disease, and myocardial ischemia, 1191 were randomized to the MED and 1173 to the REV strategy preselected in the percutaneous coronary intervention (796) and coronary artery bypass graft (377) strata. Compared with the MED strategy, the REV strategy at the 3-year follow-up had a lower rate of worsening angina (8% versus 13%; P < 0.001), new angina (37% versus 51%; P = 0.001), and subsequent coronary revascularizations (18% versus 33%; P < 0.001) and a higher rate of angina-free status (66% versus 58%; P = 0.003). The coronary artery bypass graft stratum patients were at higher risk than those in the percutaneous coronary intervention stratum, and had the greatest benefits from REV. Conclusions-In these patients, the REV strategy reduced the occurrence of worsening angina, new angina, and subsequent coronary revascularizations more than the MED strategy. The symptomatic benefits were observed particularly for high-risk patients.

Optimal quantum measurements for phase-shift estimation in optical interferometry

Quantum information theory, applied to optical interferometry, yields a 1/n scaling of phase uncertainty Delta phi independent of the applied phase shift phi, where n is the number of photons in the interferometer. This 1/n scaling is achieved provided that the output state is subjected to an optimal phase measurement. We establish this scaling law for both passive (linear) and active (nonlinear) interferometers and identify the coefficient of proportionality. Whereas a highly nonclassical state is required to achieve optimal scaling for passive interferometry, a classical input state yields a 1/n scaling of phase uncertainty for active interferometry.

Optimal quantum trajectories for discrete measurements

Using the method of quantum trajectories we show that a known pure state can be optimally monitored through time when subject to a sequence of discrete measurements. By modifying the way that we extract information from the measurement apparatus we can minimize the average algorithmic information of the measurement record, without changing the unconditional evolution of the measured system. We define an optimal measurement scheme as one which has the lowest average algorithmic information allowed. We also show how it is possible to extract information about system operator averages from the measurement records and their probabilities. The optimal measurement scheme, in the limit of weak coupling, determines the statistics of the variance of the measured variable directly. We discuss the relevance of such measurements for recent experiments in quantum optics.

A Bayesian approach to fuzzy hypotheses testing for the estimation of optimal age for vaccination against measles

Fuzzy Bayesian tests were performed to evaluate whether the mother`s seroprevalence and children`s seroconversion to measles vaccine could be considered as ""high"" or ""low"". The results of the tests were aggregated into a fuzzy rule-based model structure, which would allow an expert to influence the model results. The linguistic model was developed considering four input variables. As the model output, we obtain the recommended age-specific vaccine coverage. The inputs of the fuzzy rules are fuzzy sets and the outputs are constant functions, performing the simplest Takagi-Sugeno-Kang model. This fuzzy approach is compared to a classical one, where the classical Bayes test was performed. Although the fuzzy and classical performances were similar, the fuzzy approach was more detailed and revealed important differences. In addition to taking into account subjective information in the form of fuzzy hypotheses it can be intuitively grasped by the decision maker. Finally, we show that the Bayesian test of fuzzy hypotheses is an interesting approach from the theoretical point of view, in the sense that it combines two complementary areas of investigation, normally seen as competitive. (C) 2007 IMACS. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Nomenclature for congenital and paediatric cardiac disease: Historical perspectives and The International Pediatric and Congenital Cardiac Code

Clinicians working in the field of congenital and paediatric cardiology have long felt the need for a common diagnostic and therapeutic nomenclature and coding system with which to classify patients of all ages with congenital and acquired cardiac disease. A cohesive and comprehensive system of nomenclature, suitable for setting a global standard for multicentric analysis of outcomes and stratification of risk, has only recently emerged, namely, The International Paediatric and Congenital Cardiac Code. This review, will give an historical perspective on the development of systems of nomenclature in general, and specifically with respect to the diagnosis and treatment of patients with paediatric and congenital cardiac disease. Finally, current and future efforts to merge such systems into the paperless environment of the electronic health or patient record on a global scale are briefly explored. On October 6, 2000, The International Nomenclature Committee for Pediatric and Congenital Heart Disease was established. In January, 2005, the International Nomenclature Committee was constituted in Canada as The International Society for Nomenclature of Paediatric and Congenital Heart Disease. This International Society now has three working groups. The Nomenclature Working Group developed The International Paediatric and Congenital Cardiac Code and will continue to maintain, expand, update, and preserve this International Code. It will also provide ready access to the International Code for the global paediatric and congenital cardiology and cardiac surgery communities, related disciplines, the healthcare industry, and governmental agencies, both electronically and in published form. The Definitions Working Group will write definitions for the terms in the International Paediatric and Congenital Cardiac Code, building on the previously published definitions from the Nomenclature Working Group. The Archiving Working Group, also known as The Congenital Heart Archiving Research Team, will link images and videos to the International Paediatric and Congenital Cardiac Code. The images and videos will be acquired from cardiac morphologic specimens and imaging modalities such as echocardiography, angiography, computerized axial tomography and magnetic resonance imaging, as well as intraoperative images and videos. Efforts are ongoing to expand the usage of The International Paediatric and Congenital Cardiac Code to other areas of global healthcare. Collaborative efforts are under-way involving the leadership of The International Nomenclature Committee for Pediatric and Congenital Heart Disease and the representatives of the steering group responsible for the creation of the 11th revision of the International Classification of Diseases, administered by the World Health Organisation. Similar collaborative efforts are underway involving the leadership of The International Nomenclature Committee for Pediatric and Congenital Heart Disease and the International Health Terminology Standards Development Organisation, who are the owners of the Systematized Nomenclature of Medicine or ""SNOMED"". The International Paediatric and Congenital Cardiac Code was created by specialists in the field to name and classify paediatric and congenital cardiac disease and its treatment. It is a comprehensive code that can be freely downloaded from the internet (http://www.IPCCC.net) and is already in use worldwide, particularly for international comparisons of outcomes. The goal of this effort is to create strategies for stratification of risk and to improve healthcare for the individual patient. The collaboration with the World Heath Organization, the International Health Terminology Standards Development Organisation, and the healthcare Industry, will lead to further enhancement of the International Code, and to Its more universal use.

Genes that code for T cell signaling proteins establish transcriptional regulatory networks during thymus ontogeny

Gene expression profiling by cDNA microarrays during murine thymus ontogeny has contributed to dissecting the large-scale molecular genetics of T cell maturation. Gene profiling, although useful for characterizing the thymus developmental phases and identifying the differentially expressed genes, does not permit the determination of possible interactions between genes. In order to reconstruct genetic interactions, on RNA level, within thymocyte differentiation, a pair of microarrays containing a total of 1,576 cDNA sequences derived from the IMAGE MTB library was applied on samples of developing thymuses (14-17 days of gestation). The data were analyzed using the GeneNetwork program. Genes that were previously identified as differentially expressed during thymus ontogeny showed their relationships with several other genes. The present method provided the detection of gene nodes coding for proteins implicated in the calcium signaling pathway, such as Prrg2 and Stxbp3, and in protein transport toward the cell membrane, such as Gosr2. The results demonstrate the feasibility of reconstructing networks based on cDNA microarray gene expression determinations, contributing to a clearer understanding of the complex interactions between genes involved in thymus/thymocyte development.

Tooth Tissue Engineering: Optimal Dental Stem Cell Harvest Based on Tooth Development

Our long-term objective is to devise reliable methods to generate biological replacement teeth exhibiting the physical properties and functions of naturally formed human teeth. Previously, we demonstrated the successful use of tissue engineering approaches to generate small, bioengineered tooth crowns from harvested pig and rat postnatal dental stem cells (DSCs). To facilitate characterizations of human DSCs, we have developed a novel radiographic staging system to accurately correlate human third molar tooth developmental stage with anticipated harvested DSC yield. Our results demonstrated that DSC yields were higher in less developed teeth (Stages 1 and 2), and lower in more developed teeth (Stages 3, 4, and 5). The greatest cell yields and colony-forming units (CFUs) capability was obtained from Stages 1 and 2 tooth dental pulp. We conclude that radiographic developmental staging can be used to accurately assess the utility of harvested human teeth for future dental tissue engineering applications.

The effect of resource aggregation at different scales: Optimal foraging behavior of Cotesia rubecula

Resources can be aggregated both within and between patches. In this article, we examine how aggregation at these different scales influences the behavior and performance of foragers. We developed an optimal foraging model of the foraging behavior of the parasitoid wasp Cotesia rubecula parasitizing the larvae of the cabbage butterfly Pieris rapae. The optimal behavior was found using stochastic dynamic programming. The most interesting and novel result is that the effect of resource aggregation within and between patches depends on the degree of aggregation both within and between patches as well as on the local host density in the occupied patch, but lifetime reproductive success depends only on aggregation within patches. Our findings have profound implications for the way in which we measure heterogeneity at different scales and model the response of organisms to spatial heterogeneity.