A Bayesian regression approach to assess uncertainty in pollutant wash-off modelling

Due to knowledge gaps in relation to urban stormwater quality processes, an in-depth understanding of model uncertainty can enhance decision making. Uncertainty in stormwater quality models can originate from a range of sources such as the complexity of urban rainfall-runoff-stormwater pollutant processes and the paucity of observed data. Unfortunately, studies relating to epistemic uncertainty, which arises from the simplification of reality are limited and often deemed mostly unquantifiable. This paper presents a statistical modelling framework for ascertaining epistemic uncertainty associated with pollutant wash-off under a regression modelling paradigm using Ordinary Least Squares Regression (OLSR) and Weighted Least Squares Regression (WLSR) methods with a Bayesian/Gibbs sampling statistical approach. The study results confirmed that WLSR assuming probability distributed data provides more realistic uncertainty estimates of the observed and predicted wash-off values compared to OLSR modelling. It was also noted that the Bayesian/Gibbs sampling approach is superior compared to the most commonly adopted classical statistical and deterministic approaches commonly used in water quality modelling. The study outcomes confirmed that the predication error associated with wash-off replication is relatively higher due to limited data availability. The uncertainty analysis also highlighted the variability of the wash-off modelling coefficient k as a function of complex physical processes, which is primarily influenced by surface characteristics and rainfall intensity.

Time as the critical factor in the investigation of the relationship between pollutant wash-off and rainfall characteristics

The approach adopted for investigating the relationship between rainfall characteristics and pollutant wash-off process is commonly based on the use of parameters which represent the entire rainfall event. This does not permit the investigation of the influence of rainfall characteristics on different sectors of the wash-off process such as first flush where there is a high pollutant wash-off load at the initial stage of the runoff event. This research study analysed the influence of rainfall characteristics on the pollutant wash-off process using two sets of innovative parameters by partitioning wash-off and rainfall characteristics. It was found that the initial 10% of the wash-off process is closely linked to runoff volume related rainfall parameters including rainfall depth and rainfall duration while the remaining part of the wash-off process is primarily influenced by kinetic energy related rainfall parameters, namely, rainfall intensity. These outcomes prove that different sectors of the wash-off process are influenced by different segments of a rainfall event.

Sectional analysis of the pollutant wash-off process based on runoff hydrograph

The validity of using rainfall characteristics as lumped parameters for investigating the pollutant wash-off process such as first flush occurrence is questionable. This research study introduces an innovative concept of using sector parameters to investigate the relationship between the pollutant wash-off process and different sectors of the runoff hydrograph and rainfall hyetograph. The research outcomes indicated that rainfall depth and rainfall intensity are two key rainfall characteristics which influence the wash-off process compared to the antecedent dry period. Additionally, the rainfall pattern also plays a critical role in the wash-off process and is independent of the catchment characteristics. The knowledge created through this research study provides the ability to select appropriate rainfall events for stormwater quality treatment design based on the required treatment outcomes such as the need to target different sectors of the runoff hydrograph or pollutant species. The study outcomes can also contribute to enhancing stormwater quality modelling and prediction in view of the fact that conventional approaches to stormwater quality estimation is primarily based on rainfall intensity rather than considering other rainfall parameters or solely based on stochastic approaches irrespective of the characteristics of the rainfall event.

IODP Expedition 339 in the Gulf of Cadiz and off West Iberia : decoding the environmental significance of the Mediterranean outflow water and its global influence

IODP Expedition 339 drilled five sites in the Gulf of Cadiz and two off the west Iberian margin (November 2011 to January 2012), and recovered 5.5 km of sediment cores with an average recovery of 86.4%. The Gulf of Cadiz was targeted for drilling as a key location for the investigation of Mediterranean outflow water (MOW) through the Gibraltar Gateway and its influence on global circulation and climate. It is also a prime area for understanding the effects of tectonic activity on evolution of the Gibraltar Gateway and on margin sedimentation. We penetrated into the Miocene at two different sites and established a strong signal of MOW in the sedimentary record of the Gulf of Cadiz, following the opening of the Gibraltar Gateway. Preliminary results show the initiation of contourite deposition at 4.2–4.5 Ma, although subsequent research will establish whether this dates the onset of MOW. The Pliocene succession, penetrated at four sites, shows low bottom current activity linked with a weak MOW. Significant widespread unconformities, present in all sites but with hiatuses of variable duration, are interpreted as a signal of intensified MOW, coupled with flow confinement. The Quaternary succession shows a much more pronounced phase of contourite drift development, with two periods of MOW intensification separated by a widespread unconformity. Following this, the final phase of drift evolution established the contourite depositional system (CDS) architecture we see today. There is a significant climate control on this evolution of MOW and bottom-current activity. However, from the closure of the Atlantic–Mediterranean gateways in Spain and Morocco just over 6 Ma and the opening of the Gibraltar Gateway at 5.3 Ma, there has been an even stronger tectonic control on margin development, downslope sediment transport and contourite drift evolution. The Gulf of Cadiz is the world's premier contourite laboratory and thus presents an ideal testing ground for the contourite paradigm. Further study of these contourites will allow us to resolve outstanding issues related to depositional processes, drift budgets, and recognition of fossil contourites in the ancient record on shore. The expedition also verified an enormous quantity and extensive distribution of contourite sands that are clean and well sorted. These represent a relatively untapped and important exploration target for potential oil and gas reservoirs.

The caveat in Queensland : getting it off!

This article critically analyses the provisions by which a caveat against dealings may be cleared from a land title in Queensland, namely ss 126, 127 and 128 of the Land Title Act 1994(Qld). It includes a comparison of the current provisions with the pre-existing law and provides a comprehensive guide as to the circumstances in which, and the manner by which, the current provisions may be utilised to clear caveats from land titles in Queensland.

Aligning off-balance sheet risk, on-balance sheet risk and audit fees: a PLS path modelling analysis

This study focuses on using the partial least squares (PLS) path modelling technique in archival auditing research by replicating the data and research questions from prior bank audit fee studies. PLS path modelling allows for inter-correlations among audit fee determinants by establishing latent constructs and multiple relationship paths in one simultaneous PLS path model. Endogeneity concerns about auditor choice can also be addressed with PLS path modelling. With a sample of US bank holding companies for the period 2003-2009, we examine the associations among on-balance sheet financial risks, off-balance sheet risks and audit fees, and also address the pervasive client size effect, and the effect of the self-selection of auditors. The results endorse the dominating effect of size on audit fees, both directly and indirectly via its impacts on other audit fee determinants. By simultaneously considering the self-selection of auditors, we still find audit fee premiums on Big N auditors, which is the second important factor on audit fee determination. On-balance-sheet financial risk measures in terms of capital adequacy, loan composition, earnings and asset quality performance have positive impacts on audit fees. After allowing for the positive influence of on-balance sheet financial risks and entity size on off-balance sheet risk, the off-balance sheet risk measure, SECRISK, is still positively associated with bank audit fees, both before and after the onset of the financial crisis. The consistent results from this study compared with prior literature provide supporting evidence and enhance confidence on the application of this new research technique in archival accounting studies.

Aligning off-balance sheet risk, on-balance sheet risk and audit fees: a PLS path modelling analysis

This study focuses on using the partial least squares (PLS) path modelling methodology in archival auditing research by replicating the data and research questions from prior bank audit fee studies. PLS path modelling allows for inter-correlations among audit fee determinants by establishing latent constructs and multiple relationship paths in one simultaneous PLS path model. Endogeneity concerns about auditor choice can also be addressed with PLS path modelling. With a sample of US bank holding companies for the period 2003-2009, we examine the associations among on-balance sheet financial risks, off-balance sheet risks and audit fees, and also address the pervasive client size effect, and the effect of the self-selection of auditors. The results endorse the dominating effect of size on audit fees, both directly and indirectly via its impacts on other audit fee determinants. By simultaneously considering the self-selection of auditors, we still find audit fee premiums on Big N auditors, which is the second important factor on audit fee determination. On-balance-sheet financial risk measures in terms of capital adequacy, loan composition, earnings and asset quality performance have positive impacts on audit fees. After allowing for the positive influence of on-balance sheet financial risks and entity size on off-balance sheet risk, the off-balance sheet risk measure, SECRISK, is still positively associated with bank audit fees, both before and after the onset of the financial crisis. The consistent results from this study compared with prior literature provide supporting evidence and enhance confidence on the application of this new research technique in archival accounting studies.

Finite-SNR diversity-multiplexing trade-off of inter-vehicular cooperative diversity protocols

The finite-signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) diversity-multiplexing trade-off (DMT) of cooperative diversity protocols are investigated in vehicular networks based on cascaded Rayleigh fading. Lower bounds of DMT at finite SNR for orthogonal and non-orthogonal protocols are derived. The results showcase the first look into the achievable DMT trade-off of cooperative diversity in volatile vehicular environments. It is shown that the diversity gains are significantly suboptimal at realistic SNRs.

Book Reviews : "Off Limits: a parent’s guide to keeping kids safe from sexual abuse" and "Smart Parenting for Safer Kids"

Two important books on the topic of child sexual abuse prevention were recently published: Off Limits: A Parent’s Guide to Keeping Kids Safe from Sexual Abuse (Wurtele & Berkower, 2010) and Smart Parenting for Safer Kids (Briggs, 2010). The authors of both books are highly credentialed with long experience researching and writing about child sexual abuse prevention. Sandy Wurtele, PhD, is author of landmark child- and parent-focused sexual abuse prevention programs conducted in the USA over the past 30 years. She has published over 80 journal articles and book chapters on this topic. Her co-author, Feather Berkower, MSW, has been conducting workshops for adults on this topic for 25 years. Freda Briggs, PhD, has over 40 years’ experience in child protection in Australia and has also published numerous scholarly works on the topic. She was the inaugural recipient of the Australian Humanitarian Award in 1998, was Senior Australian of the Year in 2000, and was awarded an Order of Australia in 2005.

Assessing uncertainty in pollutant wash-off modelling via model validation

Stormwater pollution is linked to stream ecosystem degradation. In predicting stormwater pollution, various types of modelling techniques are adopted. The accuracy of predictions provided by these models depends on the data quality, appropriate estimation of model parameters, and the validation undertaken. It is well understood that available water quality datasets in urban areas span only relatively short time scales unlike water quantity data, which limits the applicability of the developed models in engineering and ecological assessment of urban waterways. This paper presents the application of leave-one-out (LOO) and Monte Carlo cross validation (MCCV) procedures in a Monte Carlo framework for the validation and estimation of uncertainty associated with pollutant wash-off when models are developed using a limited dataset. It was found that the application of MCCV is likely to result in a more realistic measure of model coefficients than LOO. Most importantly, MCCV and LOO were found to be effective in model validation when dealing with a small sample size which hinders detailed model validation and can undermine the effectiveness of stormwater quality management strategies.

Three-dimensional off-design numerical analysis of an organic Rankine cycle radial-inflow turbine

Optimisation of organic Rankine cycles(ORCs for binary cycle applications could play a major role in determining the competitiveness of low to moderate renewable sources. An important aspect of the optimisation is to maximise the turbine output power for a given resource. This requires careful attention to the turbine design notably through numerical simulations. Challenges in the numerical modelling of radial-inflow turbines using high-density working fluids still need to be addressed in order to improve the turbine design and better optimise ORCs. Thispaper presents preliminary 3D numerical simulations of a high-density radial-inflow ORC turbine in sensible geothermal conditions. Following extensive investigation of the operating conditions and thermodynamic cycle analysis, therefrigerant R143a is chosen as the high-density working fluid. The 1D design of the candidate radial-inflow turbine is presented in details. Furthermore, commercially-available software Ansys-CFX is used to perform preliminary steady-state 3D CFD simulations of the candidate R143a radial-inflow turbine for a number of operating conditions including off-design conditions. The real-gas properties are obtained using the Peng–Robinson equations of state.The thermodynamic ORC cycle is presented. The preliminary design created using dedicated radial-inflow turbine software Concepts-Rital is discussed and the 3D CFD results are presented and compared against the meanline analysis.

New laws for off the plan contracts in Queensland

The Land Sales Act 1984 regulates “off the plan” sales in Queensland in conjunction with several provisions in the Body Corporate and Community Management Act 1997. Together the Acts regulate sales in both unit developments and housing estates. From 2010 to 2013 the Queensland Government undertook a comprehensive review of the Land Sales Act 1984 to identify opportunities to modernise and improve the legislation. Significant changes were recommended by the Review to align the Land Sales Act 1984 (LSA) with current surveying and conveyancing practice and to overcome a number of practical issues faced by developers under the current legislation. A significant outcome of the review is the removal of provisions related to off the plan community title sales from the LSA to the Body Corporate and Community Management Act 1997 (BCCMA) and the Building Units and Group Titles Act 1980 (BUGTA). This article examines the Land Sales and Other Legislation Amendment Act 2014 due to commence in November 2014.

Borrowing a Stairway to Heaven : did Led Zeppelin rip off a riff?

More than 40 years after the release of Stairway to Heaven, English rock band Led Zeppelin are facing allegations that its iconic guitar riff was stolen from Taurus, a song released in 1968 by the American rock band Spirit. The two riffs are clearly similar: they share a four-bar instrumental guitar passage with similar harmony, tempo and stylistic features. Businessweek has created a short game where you can test your skill at telling the two apart...

Youth off the Streets "Our Place, Walgett Youth and Young Families Project" Project Evaluation.

The Project: • YOTS is a major youth specific agency established in 1991. It is a non-denominational, non-discriminatory and not-for-profit organisation, providing a wide range of services and offering a full continuum of care. It seeks to build on the strengths and positive aspects of marginalised young people and communities. • The 'Our Place, Walgett Youth and Young Families Project' further develops an existing YOTS capacity to provide services to Aboriginal young people. • The project adopted an action-research and community development model in which YOTS worked in partnership with the Youth Sub-committee of the Walgett Interagency. • Specific goals/objectives of the program were to: Coordinate youth and young family activities in partnership with local services and the community to build self-esteem, pride, resilience, motivation and skills; Contribute to the prevention and reduction of homelessness, unstable and unsafe housing and disruptive mobility (Walgett/Redfern) in youth and young families; Increase and improve collaborative engagement between youth and family focused services; and, research, adapt and implement Australian and international best-practice homelessness prevention/reduction initiatives to contribute to new models of practice relevant to rural and regional areas. • The project centred around an out-reach model that focused on providing a safe space with relevant structured activities coordinated by YOTS youth and family workers. Through community and service provider consultation, it was proposed that local services could coordinate strategies and activities and run them, where possible, from the centre, providing ease of access in a safe and supportive context. • Specific activities included: Implementing regular meetings with the stakeholders and community representatives; Developing a Terms of Reference for YOTS presence in the Walgett community; Undertaking a community consultation prior to finalising program activities; Implementing a range of recreational activities (sports, music, arts and crafts) early on in the activity; Implementing young family support initiatives; implementing a volunteering program, including volunteer support to young families through intergenerational volunteering; running a series of Culture and Healing Camps in partnership with local Elders and other services; Running a series of Music Camps; Providing alternative education support and referrals in partnership with local schools; Researching, identifying and adapting other best-practice models.