The distribution of the sample minimum-variance frontier

In this paper, we present a finite sample analysis of the sample minimum-variance frontier under the assumption that the returns are independent and multivariate normally distributed. We show that the sample minimum-variance frontier is a highly biased estimator of the population frontier, and we propose an improved estimator of the population frontier. In addition, we provide the exact distribution of the out-of-sample mean and variance of sample minimum-variance portfolios. This allows us to understand the impact of estimation error on the performance of in-sample optimal portfolios. Key Words: minimum-variance frontier; efficiency set constants; finite sample distribution

Sensitivity analysis of voltage imbalance in distribution networks with rooftop PVs

A comprehensive voltage imbalance sensitivity analysis and stochastic evaluation based on the rating and location of single-phase grid-connected rooftop photovoltaic cells (PVs) in a residential low voltage distribution network are presented. The voltage imbalance at different locations along a feeder is investigated. In addition, the sensitivity analysis is performed for voltage imbalance in one feeder when PVs are installed in other feeders of the network. A stochastic evaluation based on Monte Carlo method is carried out to investigate the risk index of the non-standard voltage imbalance in the network in the presence of PVs. The network voltage imbalance characteristic based on different criteria of PV rating and location and network conditions is generalized. Improvement methods are proposed for voltage imbalance reduction and their efficacy is verified by comparing their risk index using Monte Carlo simulations.

Violence Profiles on International TV News

Journalism has achieved a crucial importance as a social institution linked with the notion of the public interest. It is still doing so but is nevertheless increasingly challenged by getting networked with the interested publics. This becomes more apparent in times when the media repertoires and audiences as such are changing, when the public relies on more than one news source for the transmission and formulation of world events, but when the importance of TV news nevertheless remains relatively stable. Against this backdrop we may ask what publics contribute to or take away from the new plethora of images and stories saturating the media? This article gives an approximate answer by drawing on a comparative analysis of the present-day presentations of violence on British, German, and Russian television news. Violence in the media is not a new phenomenon, as age-old literary masterpieces like Homer’s Odyssey show, but it is still a very popular one, especially in the news. This article highlights trans-national and national elements in the reporting of violence in three different news cultures. At first glance, both the substantial cross-national violence news flow and the cross-national visual violence flow (key visuals) may be interpreted as distinctly trans-national elements. Event-related textual analysis, however, reveals how the historical rootedness of nations and their specific symbols of power are still very much manifested in respective television mediations of violence. In conclusion, this study recommends the pursuit of conscientious comparisons in journalist research and practice in order to understand what violence news convey in the different arenas of present-day newsmaking.

Optimal allocation and sizing of DGs in distribution networks

In this paper, the placement and sizing of Distributed Generators (DG) in distribution networks are determined optimally. The objective is to minimize the loss and to improve the reliability. The constraints are the bus voltage, feeder current and the reactive power flowing back to the source side. The placement and size of DGs are optimized using a combination of Discrete Particle Swarm Optimization (DPSO) and Genetic Algorithm (GA). This increases the diversity of the optimizing variables in DPSO not to be stuck in the local minima. To evaluate the proposed algorithm, the semi-urban 37-bus distribution system connected at bus 2 of the Roy Billinton Test System (RBTS), which is located at the secondary side of a 33/11 kV distribution substation, is used. The results finally illustrate the efficiency of the proposed method.

Waking up with friends : breakfast news, Sunrise and the "televisual sphere"

This paper examines the Australian breakfast news program Sunrise. By drawing on interviews with both viewers and producers, as well as selected textual analysis, it examines the show, how it is "used" as a news source, and explores its role within the audience’s morning routines. By viewing the show as a part of what Baym has termed the "Televisual Sphere", it will argue against the common discourse that the program has simply followed a populist style in pursuit of higher ratings. Because of its success in communicating and connecting with viewers, it may be more constructive to consider Sunrise a very effective form of journalism which has been at the forefront of the recent trend towards increased levels of viewer input in television journalism.

Delay distribution based robust H∞ control of networked control systems with uncertainties

Network induced delay in networked control systems (NCS) is inherently non-uniformly distributed and behaves with multifractal nature. However, such network characteristics have not been well considered in NCS analysis and synthesis. Making use of the information of the statistical distribution of NCS network induced delay, a delay distribution based stochastic model is adopted to link Quality-of-Control and network Quality-of-Service for NCS with uncertainties. From this model together with a tighter bounding technology for cross terms, H∞ NCS analysis is carried out with significantly improved stability results. Furthermore, a memoryless H∞ controller is designed to stabilize the NCS and to achieve the prescribed disturbance attenuation level. Numerical examples are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Consumer trends in digital news and information in Australia

We all know that the future of news is digital. But mainstream news providers are still grappling with how to entice more customers to their online sites. This paper provides context for a survey currently underway on user intentions towards online news and entertainment, by exploring: 1. Consumer behaviours and intentions with regards to accessing online news and information; 2. Current trends in the Australian online news and information sector; and 3. Key issues and emerging opportunities in the Australian (and global) environment. Key influences on use of online news and information are pricing and access. The paper highlights emerging technical opportunities and flags service gaps. These gaps include multiple disconnects between: 1. Changing user intentions towards online and location based news (news based on a specific locality as chosen by the user) and information; 2. The ability by consumers to act on these intentions via the availability and cost of technologies; 3. Younger users may prefer entertainment to news, or ‘infotainment’; and 4. Current online offerings of traditional news providers and opportunities. These disconnects present an opportunity for online news suppliers to appraise and resolve. Doing so may enhance their online news and information offering, attract consumers and improve loyalty. Outcomes from this paper will be used to identify knowledge gaps and contribute to the development of further analysis on Australian consumers and their behaviours and intentions towards online news and information. This will be undertaken via focus groups as part of a broader study.

EUAustralia Online : News & Information from the Capitals of Europe to Australia (www.euaustralia.com)

Experimental / pilot online journalistic publication. EUAustralia Online (www.euaustralia.com) is a pilot niche publication identifying and demonstrating dynamics of online journalism. The editor, an experienced and senior journalist and academic, specialist in European studies, commenced publication on 28.8.06 during one year’s “industry immersion” -- with media accreditation to the European Commission, Brussels. Reporting now is from Australia and from Europe on field trip exercises. Student editors participate making it partly a training operation. EUAustralia demonstrates adaptation of conventional, universal, “Western” liberal journalistic practices. Its first premise is to fill a knowledge gap in Australia about the European Union -- institutions, functions and directions. The second premise is to test the communications capacity of the online format, where the publication sets a strong standard of journalistic credibility – hence its transparency with sourcing or signposting of “commentary” or ”opinion”. EUAustralia uses modified, enhanced weblog software allowing for future allocation of closed pages to subscribers. An early exemplar of its kind, with modest upload rate (2010-13 average, 16 postings monthly), esteemed, it commands over 180000 site visits p.a. (half as unique visitors; AWB Statistics); strongly rated by search engines, see page one Googlr placements for “EU Australia”. Comment by the ISP (SeventhVision, Broadbeach, Queensland): “The site has good search engine recognition because seen as credible; can be used to generate revenue”. This journalistic exercise has been analysed in theoretical context twice, in published refereed conference proceedings (Communication and Media Policy Forum, Sydney; 2007, 2009).

Technical note : modelling a complex micro-multileaf collimator using the standard BEAMnrc distribution

Purpose: The component modules in the standard BEAMnrc distribution may appear to be insufficient to model micro-multileaf collimators that have tri-faceted leaf ends and complex leaf profiles. This note indicates, however, that accurate Monte Carlo simulations of radiotherapy beams defined by a complex collimation device can be completed using BEAMnrc's standard VARMLC component module.---------- Methods: That this simple collimator model can produce spatially and dosimetrically accurate micro-collimated fields is illustrated using comparisons with ion chamber and film measurements of the dose deposited by square and irregular fields incident on planar, homogeneous water phantoms.---------- Results: Monte Carlo dose calculations for on- and off-axis fields are shown to produce good agreement with experimental values, even upon close examination of the penumbrae.--------- Conclusions: The use of a VARMLC model of the micro-multileaf collimator, along with a commissioned model of the associated linear accelerator, is therefore recommended as an alternative to the development or use of in-house or third-party component modules for simulating stereotactic radiotherapy and radiosurgery treatments. Simulation parameters for the VARMLC model are provided which should allow other researchers to adapt and use this model to study clinical stereotactic radiotherapy treatments.

Distribution profiles of key weather variables in Australian capital cities : implications for energy efficient building design

Local climate is a critical element in the design of energy efficient buildings. In this paper, ten years of historical weather data in Australia's eight capital cities were profiled and analysed to characterize the variations of climatic variables in Australia. The method of descriptive statistics was employed. Either the pattern of cumulative distribution and/or the profile of percentage distribution are presented. It was found that although weather variables vary with different locations, there is often a good, nearly linear relation between a weather variable and its cumulative percentage for the majority of middle part of the cumulative curves. By comparing the slopes of these distribution profiles, it may be possible to determine the relative range of changes of the particular weather variables for a given city. The implications of these distribution profiles of key weather variables on energy efficient building design are also discussed.

Forecasting time-varying value-at-risk

In this thesis we are interested in financial risk and the instrument we want to use is Value-at-Risk (VaR). VaR is the maximum loss over a given period of time at a given confidence level. Many definitions of VaR exist and some will be introduced throughout this thesis. There two main ways to measure risk and VaR: through volatility and through percentiles. Large volatility in financial returns implies greater probability of large losses, but also larger probability of large profits. Percentiles describe tail behaviour. The estimation of VaR is a complex task. It is important to know the main characteristics of financial data to choose the best model. The existing literature is very wide, maybe controversial, but helpful in drawing a picture of the problem. It is commonly recognised that financial data are characterised by heavy tails, time-varying volatility, asymmetric response to bad and good news, and skewness. Ignoring any of these features can lead to underestimating VaR with a possible ultimate consequence being the default of the protagonist (firm, bank or investor). In recent years, skewness has attracted special attention. An open problem is the detection and modelling of time-varying skewness. Is skewness constant or there is some significant variability which in turn can affect the estimation of VaR? This thesis aims to answer this question and to open the way to a new approach to model simultaneously time-varying volatility (conditional variance) and skewness. The new tools are modifications of the Generalised Lambda Distributions (GLDs). They are four-parameter distributions, which allow the first four moments to be modelled nearly independently: in particular we are interested in what we will call para-moments, i.e., mean, variance, skewness and kurtosis. The GLDs will be used in two different ways. Firstly, semi-parametrically, we consider a moving window to estimate the parameters and calculate the percentiles of the GLDs. Secondly, parametrically, we attempt to extend the GLDs to include time-varying dependence in the parameters. We used the local linear regression to estimate semi-parametrically conditional mean and conditional variance. The method is not efficient enough to capture all the dependence structure in the three indices —ASX 200, S&P 500 and FT 30—, however it provides an idea of the DGP underlying the process and helps choosing a good technique to model the data. We find that GLDs suggest that moments up to the fourth order do not always exist, there existence appears to vary over time. This is a very important finding, considering that past papers (see for example Bali et al., 2008; Hashmi and Tay, 2007; Lanne and Pentti, 2007) modelled time-varying skewness, implicitly assuming the existence of the third moment. However, the GLDs suggest that mean, variance, skewness and in general the conditional distribution vary over time, as already suggested by the existing literature. The GLDs give good results in estimating VaR on three real indices, ASX 200, S&P 500 and FT 30, with results very similar to the results provided by historical simulation.

Election campaigns, and television news coverage : the case of the 2001 Australian election

This paper examines the patterns of television news coverage of the political parties, their leaders and the issues they raised during the 2001 Australian federal election campaign. By focusing on some issues, parties and leaders, television has long been argued to constrain voters' evaluations. We find that television news coverage in the 2001 Australian election campaign focused primarily on international issues, especially terrorism and asylum seekers, and on the two major parties - virtually to the exclusion of coverage of the minor parties and their leaders. Within the major party 'two-horse race', television gave substantially more coverage to the leaders than to the parties themselves, thereby sustaining what some have called a 'presidential'-style political contest. John Howard emerged as the winner in the leaders' stakes, garnering more coverage than Labor's Kim Beazley.

Rethinking genre studies through distribution analysis : issues in international horror movie circuits

The existence of any film genre depends on the effective operation of distribution networks. Contingencies of distribution play an important role in determining the content of individual texts and the characteristics of film genres; they enable new genres to emerge at the same time as they impose limits on generic change. This article sets out an alternative way of doing genre studies, based on an analysis of distributive circuits rather than film texts or generic categories. Our objective is to provide a conceptual framework that can account for the multiple ways in which distribution networks leave their traces on film texts and audience expectations, with specific reference to international horror networks, and to offer some preliminary suggestions as to how distribution analysis can be integrated into existing genre studies methodologies.

News blogs and citizen journalism : new directions for e-journalism

Even for a casual observer of the journalistic industry it is becoming difficult to escape the conclusion that journalism is entering a time of crisis. At the same time that revenues and readerships for traditional publications from newspapers to broadcast news are declining, journalistic content is being overtaken by a flotilla of alternative options ranging from the news satire of The Daily Show in the United States to the citizen journalism of South Korea’s OhmyNews and a myriad of other news blogs and citizen journalism Websites. Worse still, such new competitors with the products of the journalism industry frequently take professional journalists themselves to task where their standards have appeared to have slipped, and are beginning to match the news industry’s incumbents in terms of insight and informational value: recent studies have shown, for example, that avid Daily Show viewers are as if not better informed about the U.S. political process as those who continue to follow mainstream print or television news (see e.g. Fox et al., 2007). The show’s host Jon Stewart – who has consistently maintained his self-description as a comedian, not a journalist – even took the fight directly to the mainstream with his appearance on CNN’s belligerent talk show Crossfire, repeatedly making the point that the show’s polarised and polarising ‘left vs. right’ format was “hurting” politics in America (the show disappeared from CNN’s line-up a few months after Stewart’s appearance; Stewart, 2004). Similarly, news bloggers and citizen journalists have shown persistence and determination both in uncovering political and other scandals, and in highlighting the shortcomings of professional journalism as it investigates and reports on such scandals.

Distribution of benefits of irrigation induced technological changes and commodity markets : new evidence

A plethora of literature exists on irrigation development. However, only a few studies analyse the distributional issues associated with irrigation induced technological changes (IITC) in the context of commodity markets. Furthermore, these studies deal with only the theoretical arguments and to date no proper investigation has been conducted to examine the long-term benefits of adopting modern irrigation technology. This study investigates the long-term benefit changes of irrigation induced technological changes using data from Sri Lanka with reference to rice farming. The results show that (1) adopting modern technology on irrigation increases the overall social welfare through consumption of a larger quantity at a lower cost (2) the magnitude, sensitivity and distributional gains depend on the price elasticity of demand and supply as well as the size of the marketable surplus (3) non-farm sector gains are larger than farm sector gains (4) the distribution of the benefits among different types of producers depend on the magnitude of the expansion of the irrigated areas as well as the competition faced by traditional farmers (5) selective technological adoption and subsidies have a detrimental effect on the welfare of other producers who do not enjoy the same benefits (6) the short-term distributional effects are more severe than the long-term effects among different groups of farmers.