Optimal rules for monetary policy in Brazil

This paper presents optimal rules for monetary policy in Brazil derived from a backward looking expectation model consisting of a Keynesian IS function and an Augmented Phillips Curve (ISAS). The IS function displays'a high sensitivity of aggregate demand to the real interest rate and the Phillips Curve is accelerationist. The optimal monetary rules show low interest rate volatility with reaction coefficients lower than the ones suggested by Taylor (1993a,b). Reaction functions estimated through ADL and SUR models suggest that monetary policy has not been optimal and has aimed to product rather than inflation stabilization.

Household borrowing constraints and monetary policy in emerging economies

Credit markets in emerging economies can be distinguished from those in advanced economies in many respects, including the collateral required for households to borrow. This work proposes a DSGE framework to analyze one peculiarity that characterizes the credit markets of some emerging markets: payroll-deducted personal loans. We add the possibility for households to contract long-term debt and compare two different types of credit constraints with one another, one based on housing and the other based on future income. We estimate the model for Brazil using a Bayesian technique. The model is able to solve a puzzle of the Brazilian economy: responses to monetary shocks at first appear to be strong but dissipate quickly. This occurs because income – and the amount available for loans – responds more rapidly to monetary shocks than housing prices. To smooth consumption, agents (borrowers) compensate for lower income and for borrowing by working more hours to repay loans and erase debt in a shorter time. Therefore, in addition to the income and substitution effects, workers consider the effects on their credit constraints when deciding how much labor to supply, which becomes an additional channel through which financial frictions affect the economy.

Interaction between fiscal and monetary policy in a dynamic nonlinear model

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

The Role of Monetary Policy in Pursuing Economic Activity in Selected Transition Countries

The process of transition has brought an urgent need to develop many new market-oriented institutions or in some cases to reconstruct existing ones. One of the most important institutions of western-type economies is a central bank. It fulfils several "public good" functions, the most important of which are the achievement of stable price levels and assuring the financial stability of the economy. Nevertheless, even in economies with a long-standing market tradition, the question of whether a central bank is able to stimulate economic activity or whether all its cyclical actions lead only to changes in price levels remains open. The main purpose of this analysis was to empirically prove or disprove the relation between monetary policy and economic activity in more advanced transition countries. Basing his findings on commonly used econometric methods (causality tests, VAR modelling and simulations, simultaneous equations models), Delakorda concludes that the relation between money and economic activity is a mutual one, as there are significant differences between different countries in the conduct of monetary policy and in the environment of central banks. It is the latter which determines the relation between money and economic activity.

Evaluation of a new experimental model to study bone healing after ridge expansion with simultaneous implant placement--a pilot study in minipigs.

OBJECTIVE To evaluate the suitability of a minipig model for the study of bone healing and osseointegration of dental implants following bone splitting and expansion of narrow ridges. MATERIAL AND METHODS In four minipigs, the mandibular premolars and first molars were extracted together with removal of the buccal bone plate. Three months later, ridge splitting and expansion was performed with simultaneous placement of three titanium implants per quadrant. On one side of the mandible, the expanded bone gap between the implants was filled with an alloplastic biphasic calcium phosphate (BCP) material, while the gap on the other side was left unfilled. A barrier membrane was placed in half of the quadrants. After a healing period of 6 weeks, the animals were sacrificed for histological evaluation. RESULTS In all groups, no bone fractures occurred, no implants were lost, all 24 implants were osseointegrated, and the gap created by bone splitting was filled with new bone, irrespective of whether BCP or a barrier membrane was used. Slight exposure of five implants was observed, but did not lead to implant loss. The level of the most coronal bone-to-implant contact varied without being dependent on the use of BCP or a barrier membrane. In all groups, the BCP particles were not present deep in the bone-filled gap. However, BCP particles were seen at the crestal bone margin, where they were partly integrated in the new bone. CONCLUSIONS This new minipig model holds great promise for studying experimental ridge splitting/expansion. However, efforts must be undertaken to reduce implant exposure and buccal bone resorption.

Expectations, and Credibility in a Model of Monetary Policy

Recent monetary history has been characterized by monetary authorities which have been, alternatively hard and soft on inflation. In a vintage capital framework, investment decisions are not easily reversed. Therefore, expectations of policy as well as current policy are important to the investment decision. Here, a vintage capital model is used to assess the value of central bank credibility for a policy change. Policy in this model is assumed to be private information of the central banker. Agents learn about that policy which to study the ensuing transitional dynamics following a change in monetary policy regime.

Monetary Policy in a Portfolio Balance Model with Endogenous Physical Capital

We develop a portfolio balance model with real capital accumulation. The introduction of real capital as an asset as well as a good produced and demanded by firms enriches extant portfolio balance models of exchange rate determination. We show that expansionary monetary policy causes exchange rate overshooting, not once, but twice; the secondary repercussion comes through the reaction of firms to changed asset prices and the firms' decisions to invest in real capital. The model sheds further light on the volatility of real and nominal exchange rates, and it suggests that changes in corporate sector profitability may affect exchange rates through portfolio diversification in corporate securities.

An examination of the sufficiency of capital adequacy guidelines for government security dealers proposed by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City : hearing before the Subcommittee on Domestic Monetary Policy of the Committee on Banking, Finance, and Urban Affairs, House of Representatives, Ninety-eighth Congress, second session, May 31, 1984.

Distributed to some depository libraries in microfiche.

Essays on Monetary Policy in Small Open Economies

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Bayesian Methods for Inferring Gene Regulatory Networks

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Ciclos económicos, capital bancario y nuevas opciones de política económica

El objetivo de este trabajo es utilizar algunos hechos estilizados de la "Gran recesión", específicamente la drástica caída en el nivel de capitalización bancario, para analizar la relación entre los ciclos financieros y los ciclos reales, así como la efectividad de la política monetaria no convencional y las políticas macroprudenciales. Para esto, en el primer capítulo se desarrolla una microfundamentación de la banca a partir de un modelo de Costly State Verification, que es incluido posteriomente en distintas especificaciones de modelos DSGE. Los resultados muestran que: (i) los ciclos financieros y los ciclos económicos pueden relacionarse a partir del deterioro del capital bancario; (ii) Las políticas macroprudenciales y no convencionales son efectivas para moderar los ciclos económicos, pero son costosas en términos de recursos e inflación.

Liquidity, business cycles and monetary policy: A simulation

A Masters Thesis, presented as part of the requirements for the award of a Research Masters Degree in Economics from NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Essay on secular stagnation

In this paper we show that a closed economy, with a balanced budget and unable to increase public spending, can avoid or leave a persistent slump through adequate and timely combination of monetary and fiscal policy based on distortionary taxation. We use a three generations OLG New Keynesian model in which a permanent slump is possible without any self-correcting force to full-employment. Complementing recent work on Secular Stagnation using lump-sum taxation and government spending as fiscal instruments, our contribution is to use distortionary taxes over labor, consumption and capital, in a balanced budget environment with constant (or decreasing) government spending.