Weight of gravity - The bodies and the gestores in Galician-Portuguese Medieval poetry

Portuguese version: http://hdl.handle.net/10362/3593

Performance of state space and ARIMA models for consumer retail sales forecasting

Forecasting future sales is one of the most important issues that is beyond all strategic and planning decisions in effective operations of retail businesses. For profitable retail businesses, accurate demand forecasting is crucial in organizing and planning production, purchasing, transportation and labor force. Retail sales series belong to a special type of time series that typically contain trend and seasonal patterns, presenting challenges in developing effective forecasting models. This work compares the forecasting performance of state space models and ARIMA models. The forecasting performance is demonstrated through a case study of retail sales of five different categories of women footwear: Boots, Booties, Flats, Sandals and Shoes. On both methodologies the model with the minimum value of Akaike's Information Criteria for the in-sample period was selected from all admissible models for further evaluation in the out-of-sample. Both one-step and multiple-step forecasts were produced. The results show that when an automatic algorithm the overall out-of-sample forecasting performance of state space and ARIMA models evaluated via RMSE, MAE and MAPE is quite similar on both one-step and multi-step forecasts. We also conclude that state space and ARIMA produce coverage probabilities that are close to the nominal rates for both one-step and multi-step forecasts.

Reconceptualising public spaces of (IN)equality: sensing and creating layers of visibility

Tese apresentada para cumprimento dos requisitos necessários à obtenção do grau de Doutor em Geografia e Planeamento Territorial - Especialidade: Geografia Humana

Pulmonary tuberculosis in São Luis, State of Maranhão, Brazil: space and space-time risk clusters for death (2008-2012)

INTRODUCTION: The objective was to identify space and space-time risk clusters for the occurrence of deaths in a priority city for the control of tuberculosis (TB) in the Brazilian Northeast. METHODS: Ecological research was undertaken in the City of São Luis/Maranhão. Cases were considered that resulted in deaths in the population living in the urban region of the city with pulmonary TB as the basic cause, between 2008 and 2012. To detect space and space-time clusters of deaths due to pulmonary TB in the census sectors, the spatial analysis scan technique was used. RESULTS: In total, 221 deaths by TB occurred, 193 of which were due to pulmonary TB. Approximately 95% of the cases (n=183) were geocoded. Two significant spatial clusters were identified, the first of which showed a mortality rate of 5.8 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants per year and a high relative risk of 3.87. The second spatial cluster showed a mortality rate of 0.4 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants per year and a low relative risk of 0.10. A significant cluster was observed in the space-time analysis between 11/01/2008 and 04/30/2011, with a mortality rate of 8.10 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants per year and a high relative risk (3.0). CONCLUSIONS: The knowledge of priority sites for the occurrence of deaths can support public management to reduce inequities in the access to health services and permit an optimization of the resources and teams in the control of pulmonary TB, providing support for specific strategies focused on the most vulnerable populations.

Contractions in the 2-wasserstein lenght space and thermalization of granular media

An algebraic decay rate is derived which bounds the time required for velocities to equilibrate in a spatially homogeneous flow-through model representing the continuum limit of a gas of particles interacting through slightly inelastic collisions. This rate is obtained by reformulating the dynamical problem as the gradient flow of a convex energy on an infinite-dimensional manifold. An abstract theory is developed for gradient flows in length spaces, which shows how degenerate convexity (or even non-convexity) | if uniformly controlled | will quantify contractivity (limit expansivity) of the flow.

Mechanisms of formation and function of eosinophil lipid bodies: inducible intracellular sites involved in arachidonic acid metabolism

Lipid bodies, inducible lipid-rich cytoplasmic inclusions, are characteristically abundant in cells associated with inflammation, including eosinophils. Here we reviewed the formation and function of lipid bodies in human eosinophils. We now have evidence that the formation of lipid bodies is not attributable to adverse mechanisms, but is centrally mediated by specific signal transduction pathways. Arachidonic acid and other cis fatty acids by an NSAID-inhibitable process, diglycerides, and PAF by a 5-lipoxygenase dependent pathway are potent stimulators of lipid body induction. Lipid body formation develops rapidly by processes that involve PKC, PLC, and de novo mRNA and protein synthesis. These structures clearly serve as repositoires of arachidonyl-phospholipids and are more than inert depots. Specific enzymes, including cytosolic phospholipase A2, MAP kinases, lipoxygenases and cyclooxygenases, associate with lipid bodies. Lipid bodies appear to be dynamic, organelle-like structures involved in intracellular pathways of lipid mobilization and metabolism. Indeed, increases in lipid body numbers correlated with enhanced production of both lipoxygenase- and cyclooxygenase-derived eicosanoids. We hypothesize that lipid bodies are distinct inducible sites for generating eicosanoids as paracrine mediators with varied activities in inflammation. The capacity of lipid body formation to be specifically and rapidly induced in leukocytes enhances eicosanoid mediator formation, and conversely pharmacologic inhibition of lipid body induction represents a potential novel and specific target for anti-inflammatory therapy.

Medicinal products: regulation of biosynthesis in space and time

We live in a "Demon-Haunted World". Human health care requires the ever increasing resistance of pathogens to be confronted by a correspondingly fast rate of discovery of novel antibiotics. One of the possible strategies towards this objective involves the rational localization of bioactive phytochemicals. The conceptual basis of the method consists in the surprisingly little known gearings of natural products with morphology, ecology and evolution of their plant source, i. e. an introspection into the general mechanisms of nature.

Closure of Space for health - PEL(13)05 (PDF 38KB)

This Professional Estates Letter informs HSC bodies of the closure of the Space for Health information service and the availability of DHSPPS estates and facilities management policy on the DHSSPS website.

Empowerment narratives - A collection of exemplars illustrating empowerment of nurses and midwives

Empowerment narratives РA collection of exemplars illustrating empowerment of nurses and midwives The Meaning of Empowerment Sub-group of the Empowerment of Nurses and Midwives Steering Group ̢?" An Agenda for Change solicited exemplars to illustrate the progress in empowering nurses and midwives through innovative and effective work. Kanter (1993) defines empowerment as work effectiveness; Click here to download PDF 221kb

Empowerment narratives - A collection of exemplars illustrating empowerment of nurses and midwives

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Framework for Corporate and Financial Governance for Regulatory Bodies under the aegis of the Department of Health and Children

The document should be read as supplementary to existing requirements as set out both in statute â?" particularly legislation specific to your organisation, the Health Acts 1947-2004, Ombudsman Act, 1980, Data Protection Acts 1988 & 2003, Freedom of Information Acts 1997-2003, Ethics in Public Office Acts 1995 & 2001, Ombudsman for Children Act, 2002 and the Comptroller and Auditor General (Amendment) Act, 1993 – and in Government approved guidelines, including the Code of Practice for the Governance of State Bodies (2001), Public Financial Procedures, The Role and Responsibilities of Accounting Officers (2003) and Risk Management Guidance for Government Departments and Offices (2004). Read the report (PDF, 1.4mb)  

Amalgamation of Qualifications and Quality Assurance Bodies - Consultation Paper on Implementation (May 2009)

Amalgamation of Qualifications and Quality Assurance Bodies - Consultation Paper on Implementation (May 2009). Provided by the Department of Education and Skills, Ireland.

A Review of the State's Leased Space and the Leasing Process, General Services Enterprise of the Department of Administrative Services, July 1, 1998 through June 30, 2003

Other Audit Reports - State Leasing