Portfolio optimization with options

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Continuidade de cuidados numa Unidade de Saúde Familiar : o efeito nos custos

RESUMO - Caracterização do problema: O sistema de saúde português atingiu um patamar de ineficiência tal que urge ser reestruturado de forma a torná-lo sustentável. De forma a atingir este nível de sustentabilidade, uma série de soluções podem ser consideradas das quais destacamos a integração de cuidados. Este conceito exige que os diferentes níveis de saúde sigam um único caminho, trabalhando de forma coordenada e contínua. A integração de cuidados pode ser implementada através de várias tipologias entre as quais se destaca a integração clínica que por sua vez é composta pela continuidade de cuidados. Assim, ao medir a continuidade de cuidados, quantifica-se de certa forma a integração de cuidados. Objetivos: Avaliar o impacto da continuidade de cuidados nos custos. Metodologia: Os dados foram analisados através de estatísticas descritivas para verificar o seu grau de normalidade. Posteriormente foram aplicados testes t-student para analisar a existência de diferenças estatisticamente significativas entre as médias das diferentes variáveis. Foi então estudado o grau de associação entre variáveis através da correlação de spearman. Por fim, foi utilizado o modelo de regressão log-linear para verificar a existência de uma relação entre as várias naturezas de custos e os índices de continuidade. Com base neste modelo foram simulados dois cenários para estimar o impacto da maximização da continuidade de cuidados nas várias naturezas de custos. Conclusões: No geral, verifica-se uma relação muito ligeira entre a continuidade de cuidados e os custos. Mais especificamente, uma relação mais duradoura entre o médico e o doente resulta numa poupança de custos, independentemente da tipologia. Analisando a densidade da relação, observa-se uma relação positiva entre a mesma e os custos totais e o custo com Meios Complementares de Diagnóstico e Terapêutica (MCDT). Contudo verifica-se uma relação médico-doente negativa entre a densidade e os custos com medicamentos e com pessoal. Ao analisar o impacto da continuidade de cuidados nos custos, conclui-se que apenas a duração da relação médico-doente tem um impacto negativo em todas as categorias de custos, exceto o custo com medicamentos. A densidade de cuidados tem um impacto negativo apenas no custo com pessoal, influenciando positivamente as outras categorias de custos. Extrapolando para o nível nacional se o nível de densidade de uma relação fosse maximizado, existiria uma poupança de 0,18 euros, por ano, em custos com pessoal.

Monitoring the treatment of sepsis with vancomycin in term newborn infants

A prospective study was conducted to determine if standardized vancomycin doses could produce adequate serum concentrations in 25 term newborn infants with sepsis. Purpose: The therapeutic response of neonatal sepsis by Staphylococcus sp. treated with vancomycin was evaluated through serum concentrations of vancomycin, serum bactericidal titers (SBT), and minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC). METHOD: Vancomycin serum concentrations were determined by the fluorescence polarization immunoassay technique , SBT by the macro-broth dilution method, and MIC by diffusion test in agar . RESULTS: Thirteen newborn infants (59.1%) had adequate peak vancomycin serum concentrations (20--40 mg/mL) and one had peak concentration with potential ototoxicity risk (>40 µg/mL). Only 48% had adequate trough concentrations (5--10 mg/mL), and seven (28%) had a potential nephrotoxicity risk (>10 µg/mL). There was no significant agreement regarding normality for peak and trough vancomycin method (McNemar test : p = 0.7905). Peak serum vancomycin concentrations were compared with the clinical evaluation (good or bad clinical evolution) of the infants, with no significant difference found (U=51.5; p=0.1947). There was also no significant difference between the patients' trough concentrations and good or bad clinical evolution (U = 77.0; p=0.1710). All Staphylococcus isolates were sensitive to vancomycin according to the MIC. Half of the patients with adequate trough SBT (1/8), also had adequate trough vancomycin concentrations and satisfactory clinical evolution. CONCLUSIONS: Recommended vancomycin schedules for term newborn infants with neonatal sepsis should be based on the weight and postconceptual age only to start antimicrobial therapy. There is no ideal pattern of vancomycin dosing; vancomycin dosages must be individualized. SBT interpretation should be made in conjunction with the patient's clinical presentation and vancomycin serum concentrations. Those laboratory and clinical data favor elucidation of the probable cause of patient's bad evolution, which would facilitate drug adjustment and reduce the risk of toxicity or failing to achieve therapeutic doses.

Impact of Black-Scholes assumptions on Delta Hedging

In this work we are going to evaluate the different assumptions used in the Black- Scholes-Merton pricing model, namely log-normality of returns, continuous interest rates, inexistence of dividends and transaction costs, and the consequences of using them to hedge different options in real markets, where they often fail to verify. We are going to conduct a series of tests in simulated underlying price series, where alternatively each assumption will be violated and every option delta hedging profit and loss analysed. Ultimately we will monitor how the aggressiveness of an option payoff causes its hedging to be more vulnerable to profit and loss variations, caused by the referred assumptions.

Distribution of cardiac geometric patterns on echocardiography in essential hypertension. Impact of two criteria of stratification

PURPOSE: To evaluate 2 left ventricular mass index (LVMI) normality criteria for the prevalence of left ventricular geometric patterns in a hypertensive population ( HT ) . METHODS: 544 essential hypertensive patients, were evaluated by echocardiography, and different left ventricular hypertrophy criteria were applied: 1 - classic : men - 134 g/m² and women - 110 g/m² ; 2- obtained from the 95th percentil of LVMI from a normotensive population (NT). RESULTS: The prevalence of 4 left ventricular geometric patterns, respectively for criteria 1 and 2, were: normal geometry - 47.7% and 39.3%; concentric remodelying - 25.4% and 14.3%; concentric hypertrophy - 18.4% and 27.7% and excentric hypertrophy - 8.8% and 16.7%, which confered abnormal geometry to 52.6% and 60.7% of hypertensive. The comparative analysis between NT and normal geometry hypertensive group according to criteria 1, detected significative stuctural differences,"( *p < 0.05):LVMI- 78.4 ± 1.50 vs 85.9 ±0.95 g/m² *; posterior wall thickness -8.5 ± 0.1 vs 8.9 ± 0.05 mm*; left atrium - 33.3 ± 0.41 vs 34.7 ± 0.30 mm *. With criteria 2, significative structural differences between the 2 groups were not observed. CONCLUSION: The use of a reference population based criteria, increased the abnormal left ventricular geometry prevalence in hypertensive patients and seemed more appropriate for left ventricular hypertrophy detection and risk stratification.

Right Ventricular Doppler Echocardiographic Study of Indeterminate Form of Chagas Disease

Background: Patients with indeterminate form of Chagas disease/cardiac normality (ICD/CN) exhibited normal electrocardiograms and chest X-rays; however, more sophisticated tests detected some degree of morphological and functional changes in the heart. Objective: To assess the prevalence of systolic and diastolic dysfunction of the right ventricle (RV) in patients with ICD/CN. Methods: This was a case–control and prevalence study. Using Doppler two-dimensional echocardiography (2D), 92 patients were assessed and divided into two groups: group I (normal, n = 31) and group II (ICD/CN, n = 61). Results: The prevalence of RV systolic dysfunction in patients in groups I and II was as follows: fractional area change (0.0% versus 0.6%), mobility of the tricuspid annulus (0.0% versus 0.0%), and S-wave tissue Doppler (6.4% versus 26.0%, p = 0.016). The prevalence of global disorders such as the right myocardial performance index using tissue Doppler (16.1% versus 27.8%, p = 0.099) and pulsed Doppler (61.3% versus 68%, p = 0.141) and diastolic disorders such as abnormal relaxation (0.0% versus 6.0%), pseudonormal pattern (0.0% versus 0.0%), and restrictive pattern (0.0% versus 0.0%) was not statistically different between groups. Conclusion: The prevalence of RV systolic dysfunction was estimated to be 26% (S wave velocity compared with other variables), suggesting incipient changes in RV systolic function in the ICD/CN group.

Blood Pressure and Hemodynamic Adaptations after a Training Program in Young Individuals with Down Syndrome

Background:Cardiovascular diseases affect people worldwide. Individuals with Down Syndrome (DS) have an up to sixteen-time greater risk of mortality from cardiovascular diseases.Objective:To evaluate the effects of aerobic and resistance exercises on blood pressure and hemodynamic variables of young individuals with DS.Methods:A total of 29 young individuals with DS participated in the study. They were divided into two groups: aerobic training (AT) (n = 14), and resistance training (TR) (n = 15). Their mean age was 15.7 ± 2.82 years. The training program lasted 12 weeks, and had a frequency of three times a week for AT and twice a week for RT. AT was performed in treadmill/ bicycle ergometer, at an intensity between 50%-70% of the HR reserve. RT comprised nine exercises with three sets of 12 repetition-maximum. Systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), mean blood pressure (MBP) and hemodynamic variables were assessed beat-to-beat using the Finometer device before/after the training program. Descriptive analysis, the Shapiro-Wilk test to check the normality of data, and the two-way ANOVA for repeated measures were used to compare pre- and post-training variables. The Pearson’s correlation coefficient was calculated to correlate hemodynamic variables. The SPSS version 18.0 was used with the significance level set at p < 0.05.Results:After twelve weeks of aerobic and/or resistance training, significant reductions in variables SBP, DBP and MBP were observed.Conclusion:This study suggests a chronic hypotensive effect of moderate aerobic and resistance exercises on young individuals with DS.

Fractal Dimension in Quantifying Experimental-Pulmonary-Hypertension-Induced Cardiac Dysfunction in Rats

Abstract Background: Right-sided heart failure has high morbidity and mortality, and may be caused by pulmonary arterial hypertension. Fractal dimension is a differentiated and innovative method used in histological evaluations that allows the characterization of irregular and complex structures and the quantification of structural tissue changes. Objective: To assess the use of fractal dimension in cardiomyocytes of rats with monocrotaline-induced pulmonary arterial hypertension, in addition to providing histological and functional analysis. Methods: Male Wistar rats were divided into 2 groups: control (C; n = 8) and monocrotaline-induced pulmonary arterial hypertension (M; n = 8). Five weeks after pulmonary arterial hypertension induction with monocrotaline, echocardiography was performed and the animals were euthanized. The heart was dissected, the ventricles weighed to assess anatomical parameters, and histological slides were prepared and stained with hematoxylin/eosin for fractal dimension analysis, performed using box-counting method. Data normality was tested (Shapiro-Wilk test), and the groups were compared with non-paired Student t test or Mann Whitney test (p < 0.05). Results: Higher fractal dimension values were observed in group M as compared to group C (1.39 ± 0.05 vs. 1.37 ± 0.04; p < 0.05). Echocardiography showed lower pulmonary artery flow velocity, pulmonary acceleration time and ejection time values in group M, suggesting function worsening in those animals. Conclusion: The changes observed confirm pulmonary-arterial-hypertension-induced cardiac dysfunction, and point to fractal dimension as an effective method to evaluate cardiac morphological changes induced by ventricular dysfunction.

Heritability, determinants and reference values of renal length: a family-based population study.

OBJECTIVES: In this population-based study, reference values were generated for renal length, and the heritability and factors associated with kidney length were assessed. METHODS: Anthropometric parameters and renal ultrasound measurements were assessed in randomly selected nuclear families of European ancestry (Switzerland). The adjusted narrow sense heritability of kidney size parameters was estimated by maximum likelihood assuming multivariate normality after power transformation. Gender-specific reference centiles were generated for renal length according to body height in the subset of non-diabetic non-obese participants with normal renal function. RESULTS: We included 374 men and 419 women (mean ± SD, age 47 ± 18 and 48 ± 17 years, BMI 26.2 ± 4 and 24.5 ± 5 kg/m(2), respectively) from 205 families. Renal length was 11.4 ± 0.8 cm in men and 10.7 ± 0.8 cm in women; there was no difference between right and left renal length. Body height, weight and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) were positively associated with renal length, kidney function negatively, age quadratically, whereas gender and hypertension were not. The adjusted heritability estimates of renal length and volume were 47.3 ± 8.5 % and 45.5 ± 8.8 %, respectively (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: The significant heritability of renal length and volume highlights the familial aggregation of this trait, independently of age and body size. Population-based references for renal length provide a useful guide for clinicians. KEY POINTS: • Renal length and volume are heritable traits, independent of age and size. • Based on a European population, gender-specific reference values/percentiles are provided for renal length. • Renal length correlates positively with body length and weight. • There was no difference between right and left renal lengths in this study. • This negates general teaching that the left kidney is larger and longer.

Modeling Dependence Structure and Forecasting Market Risk with Dynamic Asymmetric Copula

We investigate the dynamic and asymmetric dependence structure between equity portfolios from the US and UK. We demonstrate the statistical significance of dynamic asymmetric copula models in modelling and forecasting market risk. First, we construct “high-minus-low" equity portfolios sorted on beta, coskewness, and cokurtosis. We find substantial evidence of dynamic and asymmetric dependence between characteristic-sorted portfolios. Second, we consider a dynamic asymmetric copula model by combining the generalized hyperbolic skewed t copula with the generalized autoregressive score (GAS) model to capture both the multivariate non-normality and the dynamic and asymmetric dependence between equity portfolios. We demonstrate its usefulness by evaluating the forecasting performance of Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall for the high-minus-low portfolios. From back-testing, e find consistent and robust evidence that our dynamic asymmetric copula model provides the most accurate forecasts, indicating the importance of incorporating the dynamic and asymmetric dependence structure in risk management.

Agapornis: relació entre fertilitat i neixements en els Agapornis lilianae i negrigenis

Treball de recerca realitzat per un alumne d'ensenyament secundari i guardonat amb un Premi CIRIT per fomentar l'esperit científic del Jovent l'any 2009. A partir d’ous exemplars de dues espècies d’agapornis -nigrigenis i lilianae-, es pretén realitzar un estudi comparatiu d’ambdues, tant pel que fa a l’etologia com a la reproducció, als hàbits alimentaris, etc. La idea inicial parteix de la possibilitat d’intercanviar alguns ous de cada espècie per mirar d’esbrinar si els ocells reproductors s’adonen de tal canvi. La hipòtesi inicial del treball considera que els ocells els criaran de la mateixa forma que si es tractés dels seus propis pollets. Les conclusions, però, han anat més enllà de la formulació de la hipòtesi inicial, de tal manera que, al final, i en forma de diagrama, s’ha pogut parlar de l’eclosió o manca d’eclosió dels ous d’aquesta espècie, tot relacionant temes diversos que van des de la fertilitat a les diferents mides dels ous. A més, l’autor també ha pogut concloure que els Agapornis lilianae són capaços de criar ocells d’una altra espècie (en aquest cas d Agapornis roseicollis) amb tota normalitat.

IRF6 Screening of Syndromic and a priori Non-Syndromic Cleft Lip and Palate Patients: Identification of a New Type of Minor VWS Sign.

Van der Woude syndrome (VWS), caused by dominant IRF6 mutation, is the most common cleft syndrome. In 15% of the patients, lip pits are absent and the phenotype mimics isolated clefts. Therefore, we hypothesized that some of the families classified as having non-syndromic inherited cleft lip and palate could have an IRF6 mutation. We screened in total 170 patients with cleft lip with or without cleft palate (CL/P): 75 were syndromic and 95 were a priori part of multiplex non-syndromic families. A mutation was identified in 62.7 and 3.3% of the patients, respectively. In one of the 95 a priori non-syndromic families with an autosomal dominant inheritance (family B), new insights into the family history revealed the presence, at birth, of lower lip pits in two members and the diagnosis was revised as VWS. A novel lower lip sign was observed in one individual in this family. Interestingly, a similar lower lip sign was also observed in one individual from a 2nd family (family A). This consists of 2 nodules below the lower lip on the external side. In a 3rd multiplex family (family C), a de novo mutation was identified in an a priori non-syndromic CL/P patient. Re-examination after mutation screening revealed the presence of a tiny pit-looking lesion on the inner side of the lower lip leading to a revised diagnosis of VWS. On the basis of this data, we conclude that IRF6 should be screened when any doubt rises about the normality of the lower lip and also if a non-syndromic cleft lip patient (with or without cleft palate) has a family history suggestive of autosomal dominant inheritance.

Heritability of renal function in hypertensive families of African descent in the Seychelles (Indian Ocean).

BACKGROUND: We estimated the heritability of three measures of glomerular filtration rate (GFR) in hypertensive families of African descent in the Seychelles (Indian Ocean). METHODS: Families with at least two hypertensive siblings and an average of two normotensive siblings were identified through a national hypertension register. Using the ASSOC program in SAGE (Statistical Analysis in Genetic Epidemiology), the age- and gender-adjusted narrow sense heritability of GFR was estimated by maximum likelihood assuming multivariate normality after power transformation. ASSOC can calculate the additive polygenic component of the variance of a trait from pedigree data in the presence of other familial correlations. The effects of body mass index (BMI), blood pressure, natriuresis, along with sodium to potassium ratio in urine and diabetes, were also tested as covariates. RESULTS: Inulin clearance, 24-hour creatinine clearance, and GFR based on the Cockcroft-Gault formula were available for 348 persons from 66 pedigrees. The age- and gender-adjusted correlations (+/- SE) were 0.51 (+/- 0.04) between inulin clearance and creatinine clearance, 0.53 (+/- 0.04) between inulin clearance and Cockcroft-Gault formula and 0.66 (+/- 0.03) between creatinine clearance and Cockcroft-Gault formula. The age- and gender-adjusted heritabilities (+/- SE) of GFR were 0.41 (+/- 0.10) for inulin clearance, 0.52 (+/- 0.13) for creatinine clearance, and 0.82 (+/- 0.09) for Cockcroft-Gault formula. Adjustment for BMI slightly lowered the correlations and heritabilities for all measurements whereas adjustment for blood pressure had virtually no effect. CONCLUSION: The significant heritability estimates of GFR in our sample of families of African descent confirm the familial aggregation of this trait and justify further analyses aimed at discovering genetic determinants of GFR.

Autotransplant of spleen tissue in children with schistosomiasis: evaluation of splenic function after splenosis

Autotransplantation of spleen tissue has been done, in the past ten years, in children with schistosomiasis mansoni with bleeding varices. The purposes of this investigation were: (1) to study the morphology and function of the remnant spleen tissue; (2) to quantify the production of tuftsin; and (3) to assess the immune response to pneomococcal vaccine of these patients. Twenty three children, who underwent splenectomy and autologous implantation of spleen tissue into the greater omentum were included in this investigation. The average postoperative follow-up is five years. Splenosis was proved by colloid liver-spleen scans. Search for Howell-Jolly bodies assessed the filtration function. Tuftsin and the titer of pneumococcal antibodies were quantified by ELISA. Splenosis was evident in all children; however, it was insufficient in two. Howell-Jolly bodies were found only in these two patients. The mean tuftsin serum concentration (335.0 ± 29.8 ng/ml) was inside the normal range. The immune response to pneumococcal vaccination was adequate in 15 patients; intermediate in four; and inadequate in four. From the results the following conclusions can be drawn: splenosis was efficient in maintaining the filtration splenic function in more than 90% and produced tuftsin inside the range of normality. It also provided the immunologic splenic response to pneumococcal vaccination in 65% of the patients of this series.

Address by Michea¡l Martin to the Conference - Legislating for Tobacco Free Society

Thank you Chairman I would like to extend a warm welcome to our keynote speakers, David Byrne of the European Commission, Derek Yach from the World Health Organisation, and Paul Quinn representing Congressman Marty Meehan who sends his apologies. When we include the speakers who will address later sessions, this is, undoubtedly, one of the strongest teams that have been assembled on tobacco control in Europe. The very strength of the team underlines what I see as a shift – a very necessary shift – in the way we perceive the tobacco issue. For the last twenty years, we have lived out a paradox. It isn´t a social side issue. I make no apology for the bluntness of what I´m saying, and will come back, a little later, to the radicalism I believe we need to bring – nationally – to this issue. For starters, though, I want to lay it on the line that what we´re talking about is an epidemic as deadly as any suffered by human kind throughout the centuries. Slower than some of those epidemics in its lethal action, perhaps. But an epidemic, nonetheless. According to the World Health Organisation tobacco accounted for just over 3 million annual deaths in 1990, rising to 4.023 million annual deaths in 1998. The numbers of deaths due to tobacco will rise to 8.4 million in 2020 and reach roughly 10 million annually by 2030. This is quite simply ghastly. Tobacco kills. It kills in many different ways. It kills increasing numbers of women. It does its damage directly and indirectly. For children, much of the damage comes from smoking by adults where children live, study, play and work. The very least we should be able to offer every child is breathable air. Air that doesn´t do them damage. We´re now seeing a global public health response to the tobacco epidemic. The Tobacco Free Initiative launched by the World Health Organisation was matched by significant tobacco control initiatives throughout the world. During this conference we will hear about the experiences our speakers had in driving these initiatives. This Tobacco Free Initiative poses unique challenges to our legal frameworks at both national and international levels; in particular it raises challenges about the legal context in which tobacco products are traded and asks questions about the impact of commercial speech especially on children, and the extent of the limitations that should be imposed on it. Politicians, supported by economists and lawyers as well as the medical profession, must continue to explore and develop this context to find innovative ways to wrap public health considerations around the trade in tobacco products – very tightly. We also have the right to demand a totally new paradigm from the tobacco industry. Bluntly, the tobacco industry plays the PR game at its cynical worst. The industry sells its products without regard to the harm these products cause. At the same time, to gain social acceptance, it gives donations, endowments and patronage to high profile events and people. Not good enough. This model of behaviour is no longer acceptable in a modern society. We need one where the industry integrates social responsibility and accountability into its day-to-day activities. We have waited for this change in behaviour from the tobacco industry for many decades. Unfortunately the documents disclosed during litigation in the USA and from other sources make very depressing reading; it is clear from them that any trust society placed in the tobacco industry in the past to address the health problems associated with its products was misplaced. This industry appears to lack the necessary leadership to guide it towards just and responsible action. Instead, it chooses evasion, deception and at times illegal activity to protect its profits at any price and to avoid its responsibilities to society and its customers. It has engaged in elaborate ´spin´ to generate political tolerance, scientific uncertainty and public acceptance of its products. Legislators must act now. I see no reason why the global community should continue to wait. Effective legal controls must be laid on this errant industry. We should also keep these controls under review at regular intervals and if they are failing to achieve the desired outcomes we should be prepared to amend them. In Ireland, as Minister for Health and Children, I launched a comprehensive tobacco control policy entitled “Towards a Tobacco Free Society“. OTT?Excessive?Unrealistic? On the contrary – I believe it to be imperative and inevitable. I honestly hold that, given the range of fatal diseases caused by tobacco use we have little alternative but to pursue the clear objective of creating a tobacco free society. Aiming at a tobacco free society means ensuring public and political opinion are properly informed. It requires help to be given to smokers to break the addiction. It demands that people are protected against environmental tobacco smoke and children are protected from any inducement to experiment with this product. Over the past year we have implemented a number of measures which will support these objectives; we have established an independent Office of Tobacco Control, we have introduced free nicotine replacement therapy for low-income earners, we have extended our existing prohibitions on tobacco advertising to the print media with some minor derogations for international publications. We have raised the legal age at which a person can be sold tobacco products to eighteen years. We have invested substantially more funds in health promotion activities and we have mounted sustained information campaigns. We have engaged in sponsorship arrangements, which are new and innovative for public bodies. I have provided health boards with additional resources to let them mount a sustained inspection and enforcement service. Health boards will engage new Directors of Tobacco Control responsible for coordinating each health board´s response and for liasing with the Tobacco Control Agency I set up earlier this year. Most recently, I have published a comprehensive Bill – The Public Health (Tobacco) Bill, 2001. This Bill will, among other things, end all forms of product display and in-store advertising and will require all retailers to register with the new Tobacco Control Agency. Ten packs of cigarettes will be banned and transparent and independent testing procedures of tobacco products will be introduced. Enforcement officers will be given all the necessary powers to ensure there is full compliance with the law. On smoking in public places we will extend the existing areas covered and it is proposed that I, as Minister for Health and Children, will have the powers to introduce further prohibitions in public places such as pubs and the work place. I will also provide for the establishment of a Tobacco Free Council to advise and assist on an ongoing basis. I believe the measures already introduced and those additional ones proposed in the Bill have widespread community support. In fact, you´re going to hear a detailed presentation from the MRBI which will amply illustrate the extent of this support. The great thing is that the support comes from smokers and non-smokers alike. Bottom line, Ladies and Gentlemen, is that we are at a watershed. As a society (if you´ll allow me to play with a popular phrase) we´ve realised it´s time to ´wake up and smell the cigarettes.´ Smell them. See them for what they are. And get real about destroying their hold on our people. The MRBI survey makes it clear that the single strongest weapon we have when it comes to preventing the habit among young people is price. Simple as that. Price. Up to now, the fear of inflation has been a real impediment to increasing taxes on tobacco. It sounds a serious, logical argument. Until you take it out and look at it a little more closely. Weigh it, as it were, in two hands. I believe – and I believe this with a great passion – that we must take cigarettes out of the equation we use when awarding wage increases. I am calling on IBEC and ICTU, on employers and trade unions alike, to move away from any kind of tolerance of a trade that is killing our citizens. At one point in industrial history, cigarettes were a staple of the workingman´s life. So it was legitimate to include them in the ´basket´ of goods that goes to make up the Consumer Price Index. It isn´t legitimate to include them any more. Today, I´m saying that society collectively must take the step to remove cigarettes from the basket of normality, from the list of elements which constitute necessary consumer spending. I´m saying: “We can no longer delude ourselves. We must exclude cigarettes from the considerations we address in central wage bargaining. We must price cigarettes out of the reach of the children those cigarettes will kill.” Right now, in the monthly Central Statistics Office reports on consumer spending, the figures include cigarettes. But – right down at the bottom of the page – there´s another figure. Calculated without including cigarettes. I believe that if we continue to use the first figure as our constant measure, it will be an indictment of us as legislators, as advocates for working people, as public health professionals. If, on the other hand, we move to the use of the second figure, we will be sending out a message of startling clarity to the nation. We will be saying “We don´t count an addictive, killer drug as part of normal consumer spending.” Taking cigarettes out of the basket used to determine the Consumer Price Index will take away the inflation argument. It will not be easy, in its implications for the social partners. But it is morally inescapable. We must do it. Because it will help us stop the killer that is tobacco. If we can do it, we will give so much extra strength to health educators and the new Tobacco Control Association. This new organisation of young people who already have branches in over fifteen counties, is represented here today. The young adults who make up its membership are well placed to advise children of the dangers of tobacco addiction in a way that older generations cannot. It would strengthen their hand if cigarettes move – in price terms – out of the easy reach of our children Finally, I would like to commend so many public health advocates who have shown professional and indeed personal courage in their commitment to this critical public health issue down through the years. We need you to continue to challenge and confront this grave public health problem and to repudiate the questionable science of the tobacco industry. The Research Institute for a Tobacco Free Society represents a new and dynamic form of partnership between government and civil society. It will provide an effective platform to engage and mobilise the many different professional and academic skills necessary to guide and challenge us. I wish the conference every success.