Quantification of key biological processes determining the dynamics and the assessment of the anchovy population in the Bay of Biscay: growth, reproduction, demography and natural mortality.

333 p.

Time-trends in infant mortality rates in the southern Europe

Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) has been considered an important health indicator in monitoring quality of health care. Objectives: To examine trends in IMR in Southern Europe (SE) over the last two decades. Methods: Number of live births and infant deaths reported for SE (Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain) between 1990 and 2013 were abstracted from World Health Organization Database. Annual IMR per 1,000 live births was computed for each country and for SE as a whole. Joinpoint regression models were used to estimate average annual percent change (AAPC) in IMR and respective 95% Conidence Interval (95% CI) and to identify points in time when signiicant changes in trend occurred (joinpoints). Results: Between 1990 and 2013, IMR signiicantly decreased from 9.2 to 3.4 in SE and the highest decrease was observed from 1992 to 1998 (AAPC = -6.1%; 95%CI: -6.5%; -5.8%). Signiicant decline in IMR was observed in all countries but the pattern was different across countries. IMR varied across countries between 11.5 and 8.3 and between 3.1 and 3.8 in 2013; highest IMR were observed in Portugal for 1990 and in Greece for 2013. Most notable decreases in IMR were observed from 1990 to 1995 in Portugal (AAPC = -8.4% 95%CI: -8.8; -8.1), from 1993 to 1997 in Italy (AAPC = -6.6% 95%CI: -7.8; -5.5) from 1998 to 2006 in Greece (AAPC = -6.8% 95%CI: -7.0; -6.5), and from 1993 to 1996 in Spain (AAPC = -7.3% 95%CI: -9.0; -5.6). Decreases in IMR were signiicant during all time period in Italy and Greece but in Portugal and Spain IMR became unchangeable after 2010-2011. Conclusions: Decrease in IMR in countries of SE suggests steadily improvement in the quality of health care. However differences in the pattern of decrease across countries during the last years deserve particular attention.

Characterization of heat waves affecting mortality rates of broilers between 29 days and market age

Climate may affect broiler production, especially where there are heat waves, which may cause high mortality rates due to the heat stress. Heat wave prediction and characterization may allow early mitigation actions to be taken. Data Mining is one of the tools used for such a characterization, particularly when a large number of variables is involved. The objective of this study was to classify heat waves that promote broiler chicken mortality in poultry houses equipped with minimal environmental control. A single day of heat, a heat-shock day, is capable of producing high broiler mortality. In poultry houses equipped with fans and evaporative cooling, the characterization of heat waves affecting broiler mortality between 29 days of age and market age presented 89.34% Model Accuracy and 0.73 Class Precision for high mortality. There was no influence on high mortality (HM) of birds between 29 and 31 days of age. Maximum temperature humidity index (THI) above 30.6 ºC was the main characteristic of days when there was a heat wave, causing high mortality in broilers older than 31 days. The high mortality of broilers between 31 and 40 days of age occurred when maximum THI was above 30.6 ºC and maximum temperature of the day was above 34.4 ºC. There were two main causes of high mortality of broilers older than 40 days: 1) maximum THI above 30.6 ºC and minimum THI equal or lower than 15.5 ºC; 2) maximum THI above 30.6 ºC, minimum THI lower than 15.5 ºC, and the time of maximum temperature later than 15:00h. The heat wave influence on broiler mortality lasted an average of 2.7 days.

Migration and Pacific mortality: estimating migration effects on Pacific mortality rates using Bayesian models.

Pacific people living in New Zealand have higher mortality rates than New Zealand residents of European/Other ethnicity. The aim of this paper is to see whether Pacific mortality rates vary by natality and duration of residence. We used linked census-mortality information for 25- to 74-year-olds in the 2001 census followed for up to three years. Hierarchical Bayesian modeling provided a means of handling sparse data. Posterior mortality rates were directly age-standardized. We found little evidence of mortality differences between the overseas-born and the New Zealand-born for all-cause, cancer, and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. However, we found evidence for lower all-cause (and possibly cancer and CVD) mortality rates for Pacific migrants resident in New Zealand for less than 25 years relative to those resident for more than 25 years. This result may arise from a combination of processes operating over time, including health selection effects from variations in New Zealand's immigration policy, the location of Pacific migrants within the social, political, and cultural environment of the host community, and health impacts of the host culture. We could not determine the relative importance of these processes, but identifying the (modifiable) drivers of the inferred long-term decline in health of the overseas-born Pacific population relative to more-recent Pacific migrants is important to Pacific communities and from a national health and policy perspective.

Perioperative mortality rates in Australian public hospitals : the influence of age, gender and urgency

INTRODUCTION: A decline in surgical deaths has been observed in Australia since the introduction of the Australian and New Zealand Audit of Surgical Mortality (ANZASM). The current study was conducted to determine whether the perioperative mortality rate (POMR) has also declined. METHODS: This study is a retrospective review of the POMR for surgical procedures in Australian public hospitals between July 2009 and June 2013, using data obtained from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare. Operative procedures contained in the Australian Refined Diagnosis Related Groups were selected and the POMR was modelled using urgency of admission, age and gender as explanatory covariates. RESULTS: The POMR in Australian public hospitals reduced by 15.4 % over the 4-year period. The emergency admissions POMR dropped from 1.40 to 1.12 %, and the elective admissions POMR from 0.09 to 0.08 %. The binary logistic regression model used to predict patient mortality showed emergency admissions to have a higher POMR than elective, being more evident at older ages. For emergency admissions, the difference in POMR between females and males increased with age, from about 55 years onwards, with females being lower. For elective surgeries, the difference between males and females was of little practical importance across ages. CONCLUSIONS: The reduction in the POMR in Australia confirms the reduction in surgical deaths reported to ANZASM. Continuing to monitor POMR will be important to ensure the safest surgery in Australia. Further investigations into case-mix will allow better risk adjustment and comparison between regions and time-periods, to facilitate continuous quality improvement.

Interpreting spotted dolphin age distributions

Previous work has determined the age distribution from a sample of spotted dolphins (Stenella attenuata) killed in the eastern Pacific tuna purse-seine fishery. In this paper we examine the usefulness of this age distribution for estimating natural mortality rates. The observed age distribution has a deficiency of individuals from 5-15 years and cannot represent a stable age distribution. Sampling bias and errors in age interpretation are examined as possible causes of the "dip" in the observed age structure. Natural mortality rates are estimated for the 15+ age classes based on the assumption that these are sampled representatively. The resulting annual survival rate

Analysis of sex-specific spawning biomass per recruit of the sailfish (Istiophorus platypterus) in the waters off eastern Taiwan

Analyses of sex-specific yield per recruit and spawning stock biomass per recruit were conducted to evaluate the current status of the sailfish (Istiophorus platypterus) fishery in the waters off eastern Taiwan. Natural mortality rates estimated from Pauly’s empirical equation were 0.26/yr for females and 0.27/yr for males. The current fishing mortality rates were estimated as 0.24/yr and 0.43/yr for females and males, respectively, which are much lower than the estimated F0 .1 (0.62/yr and 0.79/yr for females and males, respectively) and FSSB40 (0.46/yr for females) which are commonly used as target reference points in fisheries management. The effects of the fishing mortality, natural mortality, and age at first capture on the estimates of biological reference points were evaluated by using the Monte Carlo simulation. The results indicate that failure to consider the uncertainty in parameters such as natural mortality or age at first capture may lead to the improper estimation of biological reference points. This study indicates the possibility of current fishing mortality exceeding the target biological reference points may be negligible for sailfish in the waters off eastern Taiwan. However, in view of the recent rapid increase in fishing effort, it is evident that the stock status and development of the fishery need to be closely monitore

Aspects of the biology of the abalone Haliotis laevigata and Haliotis scalaris

The abalone Haliotis laevigata Donovan is commercially exploited in southern Australia; Haliotis scalaris Leach is a smaller, noncommercial species. This thesis describes the early life history of both species and other aspects of the fishery biology of H. Iaevigata required for fishery management. Both abalone species recruit onto a crustose coralline substratum variously from spring to winter. After settlement the growth rate of both species Is linear for a number of years (1 .7mm/month for H. Iaevigata and 1.1mm/month for H. scalaris) . Crustose coralline algae are the main food during the first year of life but thereafter the diet switches largely to drift algae and seagrass. Survival of newly-settled cohorts differed between years and between species. Overall, it appeared to be density Independent at low densities but density-dependent at high densities, Recruitment strength (measured at 2-1/2 - 3 years of age) and natural mortality of adults in a closed population was measured over 17 years at West I. There were sequences of strong and weak recruitments, but no relationship with presumed spawning stock size was apparent. Adult natural mortality rates ranged from 0.02 to 0.86 and were strongly density dependent. Stingrays were a major, and octopuses a minor, cause of mortality. The fecundity of H. Iaevigata was investigated at a number of sites and was adequately described by linear regressions of fecundity on total weight. Fecundity ratios and growth rate differed between sites and fecundity appears subject to phenotyplc and genotypic variation. The short and long term movement of H. laevigata was also examined, !n short term studies sexually mature Individuals aggregate during the spawning season but disperse randomly at other times of the year. In the longer term the amount of movement depends on availability of crevice space and size. Movement is also directional and, at one site, was toward that of the approaching swell. A method is described for estimating density of abalone by using a free-range search technique and adjusting for individual variation in power and efficiency of different divers and in differing degrees of habitat heterogeneity. The method is useful for estimating recruitment strength and density of abalone in surveys of abalone stocks.

Integrating acoustic telemetry into mark-recapture models to improve the precision of apparent survival and abundance estimates

Capture-mark-recapture models are useful tools for estimating demographic parameters but often result in low precision when recapture rates are low. Low recapture rates are typical in many study systems including fishing-based studies. Incorporating auxiliary data into the models can improve precision and in some cases enable parameter estimation. Here, we present a novel application of acoustic telemetry for the estimation of apparent survival and abundance within capture-mark-recapture analysis using open population models. Our case study is based on simultaneously collecting longline fishing and acoustic telemetry data for a large mobile apex predator, the broadnose sevengill shark (Notorhynchus cepedianus), at a coastal site in Tasmania, Australia. Cormack-Jolly-Seber models showed that longline data alone had very low recapture rates while acoustic telemetry data for the same time period resulted in at least tenfold higher recapture rates. The apparent survival estimates were similar for the two datasets but the acoustic telemetry data showed much greater precision and enabled apparent survival parameter estimation for one dataset, which was inestimable using fishing data alone. Combined acoustic telemetry and longline data were incorporated into Jolly-Seber models using a Monte Carlo simulation approach. Abundance estimates were comparable to those with longline data only; however, the inclusion of acoustic telemetry data increased precision in the estimates. We conclude that acoustic telemetry is a useful tool for incorporating in capture-mark-recapture studies in the marine environment. Future studies should consider the application of acoustic telemetry within this framework when setting up the study design and sampling program.

Estimates of the rates of mortality of yellowfin tuna in the Eastern Pacific Ocean derived from tagging experiments

ENGLISH: Tag release and return data for the Baja California and Gulf of Guayaquil areas were selected for this study because substantial numbers of returns resulted from these releases and because the effects of emigration are small in these areas. The returns of tags per unit of fishing effort for several experiments in each area were used to estimate the coefficients of total mortality and shedding. The coefficient of annual natural mortality was estimated to be less than 2.0, which is in agreement with a previous estimate of 0.8, but does not improve upon it. The estimates for the average coefficients of catchability are 2.02 X 10-3 for the Baja California area and 0.67 X 10-3 for the Gulf of Guayaquil area. SPANISH: Se seleccionaron para este estudio algunos da tos de liberación y retorno de marcas en las áreas de Baja California y el Golfo de Guayaquil debido a que cantidades substanciales de retornos resultaron de estas liberaciones y porque los efectos de migración son pequeños en estas áreas. Los retornos de marcas por unidad de esfuerzo de pesca de varios experimentos en cada área fueron empleados para estimar los coeficientes de mortalidad total y desprendimiento. Se estimó que el coeficiente de mortalidad natural anual fue inferior a 2.0, lo que está de acuerdo con una estimación anterior de 0.8, pero no la mejora. Las estimaciones de los coeficientes promedios de capturabilidad son 2.02 X 10-3 en el área de Baja California y 0.67 X 10-3 en el área del Golfo de Guayaquil. (PDF contains 58 pages.)

Maximum likelihood estimation of mortality and growth with individual variability from multiple length-frequency data

We consider estimation of mortality rates and growth parameters from length-frequency data of a fish stock and derive the underlying length distribution of the population and the catch when there is individual variability in the von Bertalanffy growth parameter L-infinity. The model is flexible enough to accommodate 1) any recruitment pattern as a function of both time and length, 2) length-specific selectivity, and 3) varying fishing effort over time. The maximum likelihood method gives consistent estimates, provided the underlying distribution for individual variation in growth is correctly specified. Simulation results indicate that our method is reasonably robust to violations in the assumptions. The method is applied to tiger prawn data (Penaeus semisulcatus) to obtain estimates of natural and fishing mortality.

Modelling Mortality and Reproduction Rates for Management of Sheep Flocks in Northern Australia

By quantifying the effects of climatic variability in the sheep grazing lands of north western and western Queensland, the key biological rates of mortality and reproduction can be predicted for sheep. These rates are essential components of a decision support package which can prove a useful management tool for producers, especially if they can easily obtain the necessary predictors. When the sub-models of the GRAZPLAN ruminant biology process model were re-parameterised from Queensland data along with an empirical equation predicting the probability of ewes mating added, the process model predicted the probability of pregnancy well (86% variation explained). Predicting mortality from GRAZPLAN was less successful but an empirical equation based on relative condition of the animal (a measure based on liveweight), pregnancy status and age explained 78% of the variation in mortalities. A crucial predictor in these models was liveweight which is not often recorded on producer properties. Empirical models based on climatic and pasture conditions estimated from the pasture production model GRASP, predicted marking and mortality rates for Mitchell grass (Astrebla sp.) pastures (81% and 63% of the variation explained). These prediction equations were tested against independent data from producer properties and the model successfully validated for Mitchell grass communities.

Relationship between annual rainfall and tree mortality in a tropical dry forest: Results of a 19-year study at Mudumalai, southern India

Variability in rainfall is known to be a major influence on the dynamics of tropical forests, especially rates and patterns of tree mortality. In tropical dry forests a number of contributing factors to tree mortality, including dry season fire and herbivory by large herbivorous mammals, could be related to rainfall patterns, while loss of water potential in trees during the dry season or a wet season drought could also result in enhanced rates of death. While tree mortality as influenced by severe drought has been examined in tropical wet forests there is insufficient understanding of this process in tropical dry forests. We examined these causal factors in relation to inter-annual differences in rainfall in causing tree mortality within a 50-ha Forest Dynamics Plot located in the tropical dry deciduous forests of Mudumalai, southern India, that has been monitored annually since 1988. Over a 19-year period (1988-2007) mean annual mortality rate of all stems >1 cm dbh was 6.9 +/- 4.6% (range = 1.5-17.5%); mortality rates broadly declined from the smaller to the larger size classes with the rates in stems >30 cm dbh being among the lowest recorded in tropical forest globally. Fire was the main agent of mortality in stems 1-5 cm dbh, elephant-herbivory in stems 5-10 cm dbh, and other natural causes in stems > 10 cm dbh. Elephant-related mortality did not show any relationship to rainfall. On the other hand, fire-related mortality was significantly negatively correlated to quantity of rainfall during the preceding year. Mortality due to other causes in the larger stem sizes was significantly negatively correlated to rainfall with a 2-3-year lag, suggesting that water deficit from mild or prolonged drought enhanced the risk of death but only with a time lag that was greater than similar lags in tree mortality observed in other forest types. In this respect, tropical dry forests growing in regions of high rainfall variability may have evolved greater resistance to rainfall deficit as compared to tropical moist or temperate forests but are still vulnerable to drought-related mortality.

Growth, mortality, and exploitation of the Engraulidae, with special reference to the anchoveta, Cetengraulis mysticetus, and the colorado, Anchoa naso, in the Eastern Pacific Ocean

ENGLISH: Growth and mortality data for Cetengraulis mysticetus, Anchoa naso, Engraulis mordax, E. ring ens, E. anchoita, E. encraslcbolus, E. japonicus, and E. australis were assembled and compared. Estimates of the coefficients of natural mortality, M, of E. anchoita and Ancboa naso were made from the maximum age of the former and from data for the other species. The relative yields per recruit at different fishing mortality rates and lengths at entry into the fishery were calculated for each species, using what are considered to be the best estimates and other likely values of K, a constant of growth, and M. The maximum yields per recruit are theoretically obtainable at very high fishing mortality rates, except when the length at entry is low relative to the asymptotic length. K and M may be positively related to the temperature and to each other, and if such is the case at higher temperatures greater fishing effort would be needed to attain the maximum yield per recruit. The applicability of the yield-per-recruit approach to the data is discussed, and suggestions for further research are made. SPANISH: Se reunieron y compararon los datos sobre el crecimiento y mortalidad correspondientes a Cetengraulis mysticetus, Anchoa naso, Engraulis mordax, E. ringens, E. anchoíta, E. encrasicbolus, E. japonicus y E. australls. Los estimativos de los coeficientes de la mortalidad natural, M, de E. anchoita y Anchoa naso se obtuvieron según la edad máxima de E. anchoita y según los datos de las otras especies. Se calculó para cada especie el rendimiento relativo por recluta a diferentes tasas de mortalidad por la pesca y a diferentes longitudes de entrada a la pesquería, empleándose lo que se considera que son los mejores estimativos y otros valores probables de K, una constante de crecímíento, y M. El rendimiento máximo por recluta se obtiene teóricamente a tasas muy altas de la mortalidad por la pesca con excepción de cuando la longitud a la entrada es baja en relación a la longitud asintótica. K y M pueden estar relacionadas positivamente a la temperatura y mutuamente, y si este es el caso a temperaturas más altas se necesitará un esfuerzo superior de pesca para obtener el rendimiento máximo por recluta. La aplicabilidad del enfoque a los datos rendimiento-por-recluta es discutido y se hacen sugerencias para otras investigaciones. (PDF contains 66 pages.)