Seeing the Wood for the Trees: A Critical Evaluation of Methods to Estimate the Parameters of Stochastic Differential Equations

Maximum-likelihood estimates of the parameters of stochastic differential equations are consistent and asymptotically efficient, but unfortunately difficult to obtain if a closed-form expression for the transitional probability density function of the process is not available. As a result, a large number of competing estimation procedures have been proposed. This article provides a critical evaluation of the various estimation techniques. Special attention is given to the ease of implementation and comparative performance of the procedures when estimating the parameters of the Cox–Ingersoll–Ross and Ornstein–Uhlenbeck equations respectively.

A systematic review of studies on socioeconomic inequalities in dietary intakes associated with weight gain and overweight/obesity conducted among European adults

This Review examined socioeconomic inequalities in intakes of dietary factors associated with weight gain, overweight/obesity among adults in Europe. Literature searches of studies published between 1990 and 2007 examining socioeconomic position (SEP) and the consumption of energy, fat, fibre, fruit, vegetables, energy-rich drinks and meal patterns were conducted. Forty-seven articles met the inclusion criteria. The direction of associations between SEP and energy intakes were inconsistent. Approximately half the associations examined between SEP and fat intakes showed higher total fat intakes among socioeconomically disadvantaged groups. There was some evidence that these groups consume a diet lower in fibre. The most consistent evidence of dietary inequalities was for fruit and vegetable consumption; lower socioeconomic groups were less likely to consume fruit and vegetables. Differences in energy, fat and fibre intakes (when found) were small-to-moderate in magnitude; however, differences were moderate-to-large for fruit and vegetable intakes. Socioeconomic inequalities in the consumption of energy-rich drinks and meal patterns were relatively under-studied compared with other dietary factors. There were no regional or gender differences in the direction and magnitude of the inequalities in the dietary factors examined. The findings suggest that dietary behaviours may contribute to socioeconomic inequalities in overweight/obesity in Europe. However, there is only consistent evidence that fruit and vegetables may make an important contribution to inequalities in weight status across European regions.

Fast rates for estimation error and oracle inequalities for model section

We consider complexity penalization methods for model selection. These methods aim to choose a model to optimally trade off estimation and approximation errors by minimizing the sum of an empirical risk term and a complexity penalty. It is well known that if we use a bound on the maximal deviation between empirical and true risks as a complexity penalty, then the risk of our choice is no more than the approximation error plus twice the complexity penalty. There are many cases, however, where complexity penalties like this give loose upper bounds on the estimation error. In particular, if we choose a function from a suitably simple convex function class with a strictly convex loss function, then the estimation error (the difference between the risk of the empirical risk minimizer and the minimal risk in the class) approaches zero at a faster rate than the maximal deviation between empirical and true risks. In this paper, we address the question of whether it is possible to design a complexity penalized model selection method for these situations. We show that, provided the sequence of models is ordered by inclusion, in these cases we can use tight upper bounds on estimation error as a complexity penalty. Surprisingly, this is the case even in situations when the difference between the empirical risk and true risk (and indeed the error of any estimate of the approximation error) decreases much more slowly than the complexity penalty. We give an oracle inequality showing that the resulting model selection method chooses a function with risk no more than the approximation error plus a constant times the complexity penalty.

Numerical methods for second-order stochastic differential equations

We seek numerical methods for second‐order stochastic differential equations that reproduce the stationary density accurately for all values of damping. A complete analysis is possible for scalar linear second‐order equations (damped harmonic oscillators with additive noise), where the statistics are Gaussian and can be calculated exactly in the continuous‐time and discrete‐time cases. A matrix equation is given for the stationary variances and correlation for methods using one Gaussian random variable per timestep. The only Runge–Kutta method with a nonsingular tableau matrix that gives the exact steady state density for all values of damping is the implicit midpoint rule. Numerical experiments, comparing the implicit midpoint rule with Heun and leapfrog methods on nonlinear equations with additive or multiplicative noise, produce behavior similar to the linear case.