Multicriteria decision making: a case study in the automobile industry

Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) has been one of the fastest-growing areas of operations research during the last decades. The academic attention devoted to MCDA motivated the development of a great variety of approaches and methods within the field. These methods distinguish themselves in terms of procedures, theoretical assumptions and type of decision addressed. This diversity poses challenges to the process of selecting the most suited method for a specific real-world decision problem. In this paper we present a case study in a real-world decision problem arising in the painting sector of an automobile plant. We tackle the problem by resorting to the well-known AHP method and to the MCDA method proposed by Pereira and Fontes (2012) (MMASSI). By relying on two, rather than one, MCDA methods we expect to improve the confidence and robustness of the obtained results. The contributions of this paper are twofold: first, we intend to investigate the contrasts and similarities of the results obtained by distinct MCDA approaches (AHP and MMASSI); secondly, we expect to enrich the literature of the field with a real-world MCDA case study on a complex decision making problem since there is a paucity of applied research work addressing real decision problems faced by organizations.

Group decision making for selection of an information system in a business context

The main objective of this work is to report on the development of a multi-criteria methodology to support the assessment and selection of an Information System (IS) framework in a business context. The objective is to select a technological partner that provides the engine to be the basis for the development of a customized application for shrinkage reduction on the supply chains management. Furthermore, the proposed methodology di ers from most of the ones previously proposed in the sense that 1) it provides the decision makers with a set of pre-defined criteria along with their description and suggestions on how to measure them and 2)it uses a continuous scale with two reference levels and thus no normalization of the valuations is required. The methodology here proposed is has been designed to be easy to understand and use, without a specific support of a decision making analyst.

Comparative analysis of multicriteria decision making methods

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores

Challenges of converting nonprofit in for-profit-reasons decision making and key success factores of a conversion

Due to external constraints (opposed by the market and legal system) and internal changes nonprofit organizations have been converting to for-profit entities combining commercial revenue and social value creation. To create an understanding of the conversion process considering its challenges, the reasons, the decision-making process and key success factors of a conversion are examined. Therefore, a two-step research procedure is used combining literature research and a multiple case study approach based on expert interviews with known companies. The outcome is a helpful guideline (including a decision matrix) for social entrepreneurs that might face a conversion.

Policy Labels and Investment Decision-making

Much attention in recent years has turned to the potential of behavioural insights to improve the performance of government policy. One behavioural concept of interest is the effect of a cash transfer label on how the transfer is spent. The Winter Fuel Payment (WFP) is a labelled cash transfer to offset the costs of keeping older households warm in the winter. Previous research has shown that households spend a higher proportion of the WFP on energy expenditures due to its label (Beatty et al., 2011). If households interpret the WFP as money for their energy bills, it may reduce their willingness to undertake investments which help achieving the same goal, such as the adoption of renewable energy technologies. In this paper we show that the WFP has distortionary effects on the renewable technology market. Using the sharp eligibility criteria of the WFP in a Regression Discontinuity Design, this analysis finds a reduction in the propensity to install renewable energy technologies of around 2.7 percentage points due to the WFP. This is a considerable number. It implies that 62% of households (whose oldest member turns 60) would have invested in renewable energy but refrain to do so after receiving the WFP. This analysis suggests that the labelling effect spreads to products related to the labelled good. In this case, households use too much energy from sources which generate pollution and too little from relatively cleaner technologies.

Altered adaptive but not veridical decision-making in substance dependent individuals.

Drug addiction is associated with impaired judgment in unstructured situations in which success depends on self-regulation of behavior according to internal goals (adaptive decision-making). However most executive measures are aimed at assessing decision-making in structured scenarios, in which success is determined by external criteria inherent to the situation (veridical decision-making). The aim of this study was to examine the performance of Substance Abusers (SA, n = 97) and Healthy Comparison participants (HC, n = 81) in two behavioral tasks that mimic the uncertainty inherent in real-life decision-making: the Cognitive Bias Task (CB) and the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) (administered only to SA). A related goal was to study the interdependence between performances on both tasks. We conducted univariate analyses of variance (ANOVAs) to contrast the decision-making performance of both groups; and used correlation analyses to study the relationship between both tasks. SA showed a marked context-independent decision-making strategy on the CB's adaptive condition, but no differences were found on the veridical conditions in a subsample of SA (n = 34) and HC (n = 22). A high percentage of SA (75%) also showed impaired performance on the IGT. Both tasks were only correlated when no impaired participants were selected. Results indicate that SA show abnormal decision-making performance in unstructured situations, but not in veridical situations.

Auditory perceptual decision-making based on semantic categorization of environmental sounds.

Discriminating complex sounds relies on multiple stages of differential brain activity. The specific roles of these stages and their links to perception were the focus of the present study. We presented 250ms duration sounds of living and man-made objects while recording 160-channel electroencephalography (EEG). Subjects categorized each sound as that of a living, man-made or unknown item. We tested whether/when the brain discriminates between sound categories even when not transpiring behaviorally. We applied a single-trial classifier that identified voltage topographies and latencies at which brain responses are most discriminative. For sounds that the subjects could not categorize, we could successfully decode the semantic category based on differences in voltage topographies during the 116-174ms post-stimulus period. Sounds that were correctly categorized as that of a living or man-made item by the same subjects exhibited two periods of differences in voltage topographies at the single-trial level. Subjects exhibited differential activity before the sound ended (starting at 112ms) and on a separate period at ~270ms post-stimulus onset. Because each of these periods could be used to reliably decode semantic categories, we interpreted the first as being related to an implicit tuning for sound representations and the second as being linked to perceptual decision-making processes. Collectively, our results show that the brain discriminates environmental sounds during early stages and independently of behavioral proficiency and that explicit sound categorization requires a subsequent processing stage.

Collective decision making in a heterogeneous environment: Lasius niger colonies preferentially forage at easy to learn locations

Many ants forage in complex environments and use a combination of trail pheromone information and route memory to navigate between food sources and the nest. Previous research has shown that foraging routes differ in how easily they are learned. In particular, it is easier to learn feeding locations that are reached by repeating (e.g. left-left or right-right) than alternating choices (left-right or right-left) along a route with two T-bifurcations. This raises the hypothesis that the learnability of the feeding sites may influence overall colony foraging patterns. We studied this in the mass-recruiting ant Lasius niger. We used mazes with two T-bifurcations, and allowed colonies to exploit two equidistant food sources that differed in how easily their locations were learned. In experiment 1, learnability was manipulated by using repeating versus alternating routes from nest to feeder. In experiment 2, we added visual landmarks along the route to one food source. Our results suggest that colonies preferentially exploited the feeding site that was easier to learn. This was the case even if the more difficult to learn feeding site was discovered first. Furthermore, we show that these preferences were at least partly caused by lower error rates (experiment 1) and greater foraging speeds (experiment 2) of foragers visiting the more easily learned feeder locations. Our results indicate that the learnability of feeding sites is an important factor influencing collective foraging patterns of ant colonies under more natural conditions, given that in natural environments foragers often face multiple bifurcations on their way to food sources.

Clinical utility of a molecular test in adjuvant treatment decision making in women with endocrine-sensitive early stage breast cancer: a retrospective, single center one year experience

Background. Molecular tests for breast cancer (BC) risk assessment are reimbursed by health insurances in Switzerland since the beginning of year 2015. The main current role of these tests is to help oncologists to decide about the usefulness of adjuvant chemotherapy in patients with early stage endocrine-sensitive and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-negative BC. These gene expression signatures aim at predicting the risk of recurrence in this subgroup. One of them (OncotypeDx/OT) also predicts distant metastases rate with or without the addition of cytotoxic chemotherapy to endocrine therapy. The clinical utility of these tests -in addition to existing so-called "clinico-pathological" prognostic and predictive criteria (e.g. stage, grade, biomarkers status)-is still debated. We report a single center one year experience of the use of one molecular test (OT) in clinical decision making. Methods. We extracted from the CHUV Breast Cancer Center data base the total number of BC cases with estrogen-receptor positive (ER+), HER2-negative early breast cancer (node negative (pN0) disease or micrometastases in up to 3 lymph nodes) operated between September 2014 and August 2015. For the cases from this group in which a molecular test had been decided by the tumor board, we collected the clinicopathologic parameters, the initial tumor board decision, and the final adjuvant systemic therapy decision. Results. A molecular test (OT) was done in 12.2% of patients with ER + HER2 negative early BC. The median age was 57.4 years and the median invasive tumor size was 1.7 cm. These patients were classified by ODX testing (Recurrence Score) into low-, intermediate-, and high risk groups, respectively in 27.2%, 63.6% and 9% of cases. Treatment recommendations changed in 18.2%, predominantly from chemotherapyendocrine therapy to endocrine treatment alone. Of 8 patients originally recommended chemotherapy, 25% were recommended endocrine treatment alone after receiving the Recurrence Score result. Conclusions. Though reimbursed by health insurances since January 2015, molecular tests are used moderately in our institution as per the decision of the multidisciplinary tumor board. It's mainly used to obtain a complementary confirmation supporting the decision of no chemotherapy. The OncotypeDx Recurrence Score results were in the intermediate group in 66% of the 9 tested cases but contributed to avoid chemotherapy in 2 patients during the last 12 months.

Identification of imaging selection patterns in acute ischemic stroke patients and the influence on treatment and clinical trial enrollment decision making.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: For the STroke Imaging Research (STIR) and VISTA-Imaging Investigators The purpose of this study was to collect precise information on the typical imaging decisions given specific clinical acute stroke scenarios. Stroke centers worldwide were surveyed regarding typical imaging used to work up representative acute stroke patients, make treatment decisions, and willingness to enroll in clinical trials. METHODS: STroke Imaging Research and Virtual International Stroke Trials Archive-Imaging circulated an online survey of clinical case vignettes through its website, the websites of national professional societies from multiple countries as well as through email distribution lists from STroke Imaging Research and participating societies. Survey responders were asked to select the typical imaging work-up for each clinical vignette presented. Actual images were not presented to the survey responders. Instead, the survey then displayed several types of imaging findings offered by the imaging strategy, and the responders selected the appropriate therapy and whether to enroll into a clinical trial considering time from onset, clinical presentation, and imaging findings. A follow-up survey focusing on 6 h from onset was conducted after the release of the positive endovascular trials. RESULTS: We received 548 responses from 35 countries including 282 individual centers; 78% of the centers originating from Australia, Brazil, France, Germany, Spain, United Kingdom, and United States. The specific onset windows presented influenced the type of imaging work-up selected more than the clinical scenario. Magnetic Resonance Imaging usage (27-28%) was substantial, in particular for wake-up stroke. Following the release of the positive trials, selection of perfusion imaging significantly increased for imaging strategy. CONCLUSIONS: Usage of vascular or perfusion imaging by Computed Tomography or Magnetic Resonance Imaging beyond just parenchymal imaging was the primary work-up (62-87%) across all clinical vignettes and time windows. Perfusion imaging with Computed Tomography or Magnetic Resonance Imaging was associated with increased probability of enrollment into clinical trials for 0-3 h. Following the release of the positive endovascular trials, selection of endovascular only treatment for 6 h increased across all clinical vignettes.

To analyse a trace or not? Evaluating the decision-making process in the criminal investigation

In order to broaden our knowledge and understanding of the decision steps in the criminal investigation process, we started by evaluating the decision to analyse a trace and the factors involved in this decision step. This decision step is embedded in the complete criminal investigation process, involving multiple decision and triaging steps. Considering robbery cases occurring in a geographic region during a 2-year-period, we have studied the factors influencing the decision to submit biological traces, directly sampled on the scene of the robbery or on collected objects, for analysis. The factors were categorised into five knowledge dimensions: strategic, immediate, physical, criminal and utility and decision tree analysis was carried out. Factors in each category played a role in the decision to analyse a biological trace. Interestingly, factors involving information available prior to the analysis are of importance, such as the fact that a positive result (a profile suitable for comparison) is already available in the case, or that a suspect has been identified through traditional police work before analysis. One factor that was taken into account, but was not significant, is the matrix of the trace. Hence, the decision to analyse a trace is not influenced by this variable. The decision to analyse a trace first is very complex and many of the tested variables were taken into account. The decisions are often made on a case-by-case basis.

Budgeting decision-making in Finnish municipalities

This master’s thesis examines budgeting decision-making in Finnish municipalities; an issue that has not received a lot of attention in the academic literature. Furthermore, this thesis investigates whether the current budgeting decision-making practices could be improved by using a new kind of budget decision-making tool that is based on presenting multiple investment or divestment alternatives simultaneously to the decision makers as a frontier, rather than one by one. In the empirical part of the thesis, the results from three case interviews are introduced in order to answer the research questions of the study. The empirical evidence of this thesis suggests that there is a need for the presented budgeting decision-making tool in Finnish municipalities. The current routine is seen as good even though the interviewees would warmly welcome the alternative method that would function as a linkage be-tween strategy and the budget. The results also indicate that even though municipalities are left with a lot of room in their budgeting decision-making routine, the routine closely, though not always purposely, follows given guidelines and legislation. The major problem in the current practices seems to be the lack of understanding, as the decision-makers find it hard fully to understand the multiplicative effects of the budget-related decisions.

Fuzzy real option analysis in patent related decision making and patent valuation

The shift towards a knowledge-based economy has inevitably prompted the evolution of patent exploitation. Nowadays, patent is more than just a prevention tool for a company to block its competitors from developing rival technologies, but lies at the very heart of its strategy for value creation and is therefore strategically exploited for economic pro t and competitive advantage. Along with the evolution of patent exploitation, the demand for reliable and systematic patent valuation has also reached an unprecedented level. However, most of the quantitative approaches in use to assess patent could arguably fall into four categories and they are based solely on the conventional discounted cash flow analysis, whose usability and reliability in the context of patent valuation are greatly limited by five practical issues: the market illiquidity, the poor data availability, discriminatory cash-flow estimations, and its incapability to account for changing risk and managerial flexibility. This dissertation attempts to overcome these impeding barriers by rationalizing the use of two techniques, namely fuzzy set theory (aiming at the first three issues) and real option analysis (aiming at the last two). It commences with an investigation into the nature of the uncertainties inherent in patent cash flow estimation and claims that two levels of uncertainties must be properly accounted for. Further investigation reveals that both levels of uncertainties fall under the categorization of subjective uncertainty, which differs from objective uncertainty originating from inherent randomness in that uncertainties labelled as subjective are highly related to the behavioural aspects of decision making and are usually witnessed whenever human judgement, evaluation or reasoning is crucial to the system under consideration and there exists a lack of complete knowledge on its variables. Having clarified their nature, the application of fuzzy set theory in modelling patent-related uncertain quantities is effortlessly justified. The application of real option analysis to patent valuation is prompted by the fact that both patent application process and the subsequent patent exploitation (or commercialization) are subject to a wide range of decisions at multiple successive stages. In other words, both patent applicants and patentees are faced with a large variety of courses of action as to how their patent applications and granted patents can be managed. Since they have the right to run their projects actively, this flexibility has value and thus must be properly accounted for. Accordingly, an explicit identification of the types of managerial flexibility inherent in patent-related decision making problems and in patent valuation, and a discussion on how they could be interpreted in terms of real options are provided in this dissertation. Additionally, the use of the proposed techniques in practical applications is demonstrated by three fuzzy real option analysis based models. In particular, the pay-of method and the extended fuzzy Black-Scholes model are employed to investigate the profitability of a patent application project for a new process for the preparation of a gypsum-fibre composite and to justify the subsequent patent commercialization decision, respectively; a fuzzy binomial model is designed to reveal the economic potential of a patent licensing opportunity.

Impact of Word-of-Mouth on consumer decision-making: An information processing perspective in the context of a high-involvement service

This doctoral study conducts an empirical analysis of the impact of Word-of-Mouth (WOM) on marketing-relevant outcomes such as attitudes and consumer choice, during a high-involvement and complex service decision. Due to its importance to decisionmaking, WOM has attracted interest from academia and practitioners for decades. Consumers are known to discuss products and services with one another. These discussions help consumers to form an evaluative opinion, as WOM reduces perceived risk, simplifies complexity, and increases the confidence of consumers in decisionmaking. These discussions are also highly impactful as WOM is a trustworthy source of information, since it is independent from the company or brand. In responding to the calls for more research on what happens after WOM information is received, and how it affects marketing-relevant outcomes, this dissertation extends prior WOM literature by investigating how consumers process information in a highinvolvement service domain, in particular higher-education. Further, the dissertation studies how the form of WOM influences consumer choice. The research contributes to WOM and services marketing literature by developing and empirically testing a framework for information processing and studying the long-term effects of WOM. The results of the dissertation are presented in five research publications. The publications are based on longitudinal data. The research leads to the development of a proposed theoretical framework for the processing of WOM, based on theories from social psychology. The framework is specifically focused on service decisions, as it takes into account evaluation difficulty through the complex nature of choice criteria associated with service purchase decisions. Further, other gaps in current WOM literature are taken into account by, for example, examining how the source of WOM and service values affects the processing mechanism. The research also provides implications for managers aiming to trigger favorable WOM through marketing efforts, such as advertising and testimonials. The results provide suggestions on how to design these marketing efforts by taking into account the mechanism through which information is processed, or the form of social influence.

Analogy in Decision-Making

In the context of decision making under uncertainty, we formalize the concept of analogy: an analogy between two decision problems is a mapping that transforms one problem into the other while preserving the problem's structure. We identify the basic structure of a decision problem, and provide a representation of the mappings that pre- serve this structure. We then consider decision makers who use multiple analogies. Our main results are a representation theorem for "aggregators" of analogies satisfying certain minimal requirements, and the identification of preferences emerging from analogical reasoning. We show that a large variety of multiple-prior preferences can be thought of as emerging from analogical reasoning.