Aerosol impacts on drizzle properties in warm clouds from ARM Mobile Facility maritime and continental deployments

We have extensively evaluated the response of cloud-base drizzle rate (Rcb; mm day–1) in warm clouds to liquid water path (LWP; g m–2) and to cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) number concentration (NCCN; cm–3), an aerosol proxy. This evaluation is based on a 19-month long dataset of Doppler radar, lidar, microwave radiometers and aerosol observing systems from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Mobile Facility deployments at the Azores and in Germany. Assuming 0.55% supersaturation to calculate NCCN, we found a power law , indicating that Rcb decreases by a factor of 2–3 as NCCN increases from 200 to 1000 cm–3 for fixed LWP. Additionally, the precipitation susceptibility to NCCN ranges between 0.5 and 0.9, in agreement with values from simulations and aircraft measurements. Surprisingly, the susceptibility of the probability of precipitation from our analysis is much higher than that from CloudSat estimates, but agrees well with simulations from a multi-scale high-resolution aerosol-climate model. Although scale issues are not completely resolved in the intercomparisons, our results are encouraging, suggesting that it is possible for multi-scale models to accurately simulate the response of LWP to aerosol perturbations.

Intercomparison of shortwave radiative transfer schemes in global aerosol modeling: results from the AeroCom Radiative Transfer Experiment

In this study we examine the performance of 31 global model radiative transfer schemes in cloud-free conditions with prescribed gaseous absorbers and no aerosols (Rayleigh atmosphere), with prescribed scattering-only aerosols, and with more absorbing aerosols. Results are compared to benchmark results from high-resolution, multi-angular line-by-line radiation models. For purely scattering aerosols, model bias relative to the line-by-line models in the top-of-the atmosphere aerosol radiative forcing ranges from roughly −10 to 20%, with over- and underestimates of radiative cooling at lower and higher solar zenith angle, respectively. Inter-model diversity (relative standard deviation) increases from ~10 to 15% as solar zenith angle decreases. Inter-model diversity in atmospheric and surface forcing decreases with increased aerosol absorption, indicating that the treatment of multiple-scattering is more variable than aerosol absorption in the models considered. Aerosol radiative forcing results from multi-stream models are generally in better agreement with the line-by-line results than the simpler two-stream schemes. Considering radiative fluxes, model performance is generally the same or slightly better than results from previous radiation scheme intercomparisons. However, the inter-model diversity in aerosol radiative forcing remains large, primarily as a result of the treatment of multiple-scattering. Results indicate that global models that estimate aerosol radiative forcing with two-stream radiation schemes may be subject to persistent biases introduced by these schemes, particularly for regional aerosol forcing.

Is bird incidence in Atlantic forest fragments influenced by landscape patterns at multiple scales?

The degree to which habitat fragmentation affects bird incidence is species specific and may depend on varying spatial scales. Selecting the correct scale of measurement is essential to appropriately assess the effects of habitat fragmentation on bird occurrence. Our objective was to determine which spatial scale of landscape measurement best describes the incidence of three bird species (Pyriglena leucoptera, Xiphorhynchus fuscus and Chiroxiphia caudata) in the fragmented Brazilian Atlantic forest and test if multi-scalar models perform better than single-scalar ones. Bird incidence was assessed in 80 forest fragments. The surrounding landscape structure was described with four indices measured at four spatial scales (400-, 600-, 800- and 1,000-m buffers around the sample points). The explanatory power of each scale in predicting bird incidence was assessed using logistic regression, bootstrapped with 1,000 repetitions. The best results varied between species (1,000-m radius for P. leucoptera; 800-m for X. fuscus and 600-m for C. caudata), probably due to their distinct feeding habits and foraging strategies. Multi-scale models always resulted in better predictions than single-scale models, suggesting that different aspects of the landscape structure are related to different ecological processes influencing bird incidence. In particular, our results suggest that local extinction and (re)colonisation processes might simultaneously act at different scales. Thus, single-scale models may not be good enough to properly describe complex pattern-process relationships. Selecting variables at multiple ecologically relevant scales is a reasonable procedure to optimise the accuracy of species incidence models.

Um estudo sobre a capacidade de gestores de fundos multigestor adicionarem valor aos cotistas

Com o aumento do número de gestores especializados em um número cada vez maior de possibilidades de investimentos na indústria de fundos brasileira, os fundos Multigestor se tornaram uma alternativa para os investidores que procuram diversificar seus investimentos e delegam às instituições financeiras o trabalho de alocar os recursos dentro das diferentes estratégias e fundos existentes no mercado. O intuito deste estudo é avaliar a capacidade de gerar retornos anormais (alfa) dos fundos de fundos da indústria brasileira, classificados como Fundos Multimercados Multigestor. Para isso foi estudada uma amostra com 1.421 fundos Multigestor com tributação de Longo Prazo no período de janeiro de 2005 a dezembro de 2011. A análise dos resultados encontrados através de regressões de modelos de vários fatores, derivados do modelo de Jensen (1968), sugere que apenas 3,03% dos fundos estudados conseguem adicionar valor a seus cotistas. Foram estudadas ainda as três principais fontes potenciais de geração de alfa dos fundos de fundos, a escolha das estratégias que compõe a carteira do fundo (alocação estratégica), a antecipação de movimentos de mercado (market timing) e a capacidade selecionar os melhores fundos dentro de cada estratégia (seleção de fundos). A partir da inclusão de termos quadráticos, conforme proposto pelos modelos de Treynor e Mazuy (1966) pode-se verificar que os fundos Multigestor, em média, não conseguem adicionar valor tentando antecipar movimentos de mercado (market timing). Através da construção de uma variável explicativa com a composição estratégica de cada fundo da amostra em cada período de tempo, pode-se verificar que os gestores de fundos de fundos, em média, também fracassam ao tentar selecionar os melhores fundos/gestores da indústria. Já a escolha das estratégias que compõe a carteira do fundo (alocação estratégica) mostrou contribuir positivamente para o retorno dos fundos. Ainda foi avaliada a capacidade de gerar alfa antes dos custos, o que elevou o percentual de fundos com alfa positivo para 6,39% dos fundos estudados, mas foi incapaz de alterar o sinal do alfa médio, que permaneceu negativo.

Sobrevivência e tamanho populacional do Tiê-preto Tachyphonus Rufus (aves: thraupidae) em fragmento de restinga no extremo Norte da Mata Atlântica

For a long time, we believed in the pattern that tropical and south hemisphere species have high survival. Nowadays results began to contradict this pattern, indicating the need for further studies. Despite the advanced state of the study of bird population parameters, little is known about their variation throughout the year and the factors affecting them. Reproduction, for example, is one factor that may alter adult survival rates, because during this process the breeding pair allocates resources to maintain itself to maintain offspring, making itself more susceptible to diseases and predation. The aim of this study was to estimate survival and population size of a Central and South America passerine, Tachyphonus rufus (Boddaert, 1783), testing hypotheses about the factors that define these parameters. We performed data collection between Nov/2010 and ago/2012 in 12 ha plot, in a fragment of Atlantic Forest in northeastern Brazil. We used capture-mark-recapture methods to generate estimates using Closed Design Robust model in the program MARK. We generated Multi-state models to test some assumptions inherent to Closed Robust Design. The influence of co-variables (time, rain and reproductive cycle) and the effect of transient individuals were measured. Capture, recapture and apparent survival parameters were defined by reproductive cycle, while temporary dispersal was influence by rain. The estimates showed a higher apparent survival during the non-breeding period (92% ± 1%) than during breeding (40% ± 9%), revealing a cost of reproduction and suggesting a trade-off between surviving and reproducing. The low annual survival observed (34%) did not corroborate the pattern of high rates expected for a tropical bird. The largest population size was estimated to be 56 individuals in Nov/11, explained by high recruitment of juveniles, while the lowest observed in May/12: 10 individuals, probably as a result of massive influx of competitor species. Results from this study add to the growing literature on life history of Neotropical species. We encourage studies like this especially in Brazil, where there are few information, and suggest that covariates related to habitat quality and environmental changes should be tested, so that we can generate increasingly reliable models

Collider aspects of flavor physics at high Q

This chapter of the "Flavor in the era of LHC" workshop report discusses flavor-related issues in the production and decays of heavy states at the LHC at high momentum transfer Q, both from the experimental and the theoretical perspective. We review top quark physics, and discuss the flavor aspects of several extensions of the standard model, such as supersymmetry, little Higgs models or models with extra dimensions. This includes discovery aspects, as well as the measurement of several properties of these heavy states. We also present publicly available computational tools related to this topic.

CMS physics technical design report, volume II: Physics performance

CMS is a general purpose experiment, designed to study the physics of pp collisions at 14 TeV at the Large Hadron Collider ( LHC). It currently involves more than 2000 physicists from more than 150 institutes and 37 countries. The LHC will provide extraordinary opportunities for particle physics based on its unprecedented collision energy and luminosity when it begins operation in 2007. The principal aim of this report is to present the strategy of CMS to explore the rich physics programme offered by the LHC. This volume demonstrates the physics capability of the CMS experiment. The prime goals of CMS are to explore physics at the TeV scale and to study the mechanism of electroweak symmetry breaking - through the discovery of the Higgs particle or otherwise. To carry out this task, CMS must be prepared to search for new particles, such as the Higgs boson or supersymmetric partners of the Standard Model particles, from the start- up of the LHC since new physics at the TeV scale may manifest itself with modest data samples of the order of a few fb(-1) or less. The analysis tools that have been developed are applied to study in great detail and with all the methodology of performing an analysis on CMS data specific benchmark processes upon which to gauge the performance of CMS. These processes cover several Higgs boson decay channels, the production and decay of new particles such as Z' and supersymmetric particles, B-s production and processes in heavy ion collisions. The simulation of these benchmark processes includes subtle effects such as possible detector miscalibration and misalignment. Besides these benchmark processes, the physics reach of CMS is studied for a large number of signatures arising in the Standard Model and also in theories beyond the Standard Model for integrated luminosities ranging from 1 fb(-1) to 30 fb(-1). The Standard Model processes include QCD, B-physics, diffraction, detailed studies of the top quark properties, and electroweak physics topics such as the W and Z(0) boson properties. The production and decay of the Higgs particle is studied for many observable decays, and the precision with which the Higgs boson properties can be derived is determined. About ten different supersymmetry benchmark points are analysed using full simulation. The CMS discovery reach is evaluated in the SUSY parameter space covering a large variety of decay signatures. Furthermore, the discovery reach for a plethora of alternative models for new physics is explored, notably extra dimensions, new vector boson high mass states, little Higgs models, technicolour and others. Methods to discriminate between models have been investigated. This report is organized as follows. Chapter 1, the Introduction, describes the context of this document. Chapters 2-6 describe examples of full analyses, with photons, electrons, muons, jets, missing E-T, B-mesons and tau's, and for quarkonia in heavy ion collisions. Chapters 7-15 describe the physics reach for Standard Model processes, Higgs discovery and searches for new physics beyond the Standard Model.

ON FERMION MASSES and MIXING IN A MODEL WITH A(4) SYMMETRY

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Otimização multiobjetivo no planejamento agregado da produção e na cogeração de energia elétrica de usina do setor sucroenergético

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Mecânica - FEG

Planejamento de sistemas de distribuição de energia elétrica de média tensão através de um algoritmo de busca dispersa

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Elétrica - FEIS

Stringent limits on top-quark compositeness from t(t)over-bar production at the Tevatron and the LHC

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Estudo genômico da produção de leite e seus constituintes em bovinos da raça Guzerá

Pós-graduação em Genética e Melhoramento Animal - FCAV

Suche nach Endzuständen mit zwei Leptonen und fehlender transversaler Energie in pp-Kollisionen bei einer Schwerpunktsenergie von 1.96 TeV

In der vorliegenden Arbeit wurden Daten aus Proton-Antiproton-Kollisionen analysiert, die im Zeitraum von April 2002 bis März 2004 mit dem DO-Detektor bei einer Schwerpunktsenergie von sqrt(s) = 1.96 TeV am Tevatron-Beschleuniger am Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory aufgezeichnet wurden. Je nach Analyse entsprechen die verwendeten Datensätze integrierten Luminositäten von 158-252 pb^-1. Die Ereignisse wurden auf die Existenz von Higgs-Bosonen und Charginos und Neutralinos untersucht. Außerdem wurde eine Messung des Wirkungsquerschnittes der Paarproduktion von W-Bosonen durchgeführt. Für die Suchen nach Higgs-Bosonen wurden leptonische Endzustände mit zwei Elektronen bzw. einem Elektron und einem Myon untersucht, wie sie bei Zerfällen von Higgs-Bosonen über zwei W-Bosonen erwartet werden. Wegen des momentan zur Verfügung stehenden geringen Datensatzes ist nur möglich, die Daten auf die Existenz von Higgs-Bosonen zu untersuchen, wie sie innerhalb alternativer Modelle vorhergesagt werden. Aufgrund größerer Produktionswirkungsquerschnitte werden die Higgs-Bosonen mit erhöhter Rate erzeugt und werden somit schon bei niedrigen integrierten Luminositäten zugänglich. Bei der durchgeführten Analyse wurde eine gute Übereinstimmung der beobachteten Ereignisse mit der Erwartung aus Prozessen des Standardmodells gefunden. Da keine Evidenz für die Existenz von Higgs-Bosonen beobachtet wurde, wurden die Ergebnisse verwendet, um mit einem Vertrauensniveau von 95% eine obere Grenze auf den Produktionswirkungsquerschnitt multipliziert mit dem Verzweigungsverhältnis anzugeben. Durch eine Kombination der ee-, emu- und mumu-Endzustände erhält man eine obere Grenze zwischen 5.7 und 40.3 pb im Higgs-Massenbereich von 100-200 GeV. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, daß auch der hier verwendete Datensatz noch zu klein ist, um auch Higgs-Bosonen im Rahmen der alternativen Modelle zu entdecken bzw. auszuschließen. Um die assoziierte Produktion von Charginos und Neutralinos nachzuweisen, wurden ebenfalls Endzustände mit einem Elektron und einem Myon untersucht. Zur Verbesserung der Sensitivität wurde eine Kombination mit Analysen in ee- und mumu-Endzuständen durchgeführt. Da auch hier eine gute Konsistenz mit der Erwartung der Untergrundprozesse innerhalb des Standardmodells gefunden wurde, wurden ebenso obere Grenzen auf den Produktionswirkungsquerschnitt multipliziert mit dem Verzweigungsverhältnis gesetzt. Die Ergebnisse werden im Rahmen des mSUGRA-Modells interpretiert. Es ergeben sich obere Grenzen zwischen 0.46 und 0.63 pb für Charginomassen im Bereich von 97 GeV bis 114 GeV. Dies stellt eine deutliche Verbesserung der bei früheren Messungen bei DO erhaltenen Ausschlußgrenzen dar. Allerdings ist es wiederum aufgrund des geringen Datensatzes nicht möglich, Punkte im mSUGRA-Parameterraum oberhalb der bei LEP gefundenen Grenzen auszuschließen. Die Ergebnisse können auch verwendet werden, um allgemeinere SUSY-Modelle einzuschränken, die ebenfalls entsprechende Beziehungen zwischen den Chargino- und Neutralino-Massen erfüllen. Den Hauptuntergrund bei diesen Suchen stellt die Paarproduktion von W-Bosonen dar. Es wurde zum ersten Mal im Rahmen des DO-Experimentes eine Messung des Wirkungsquerschnittes der W-Paarproduktion mit einer Signifikanz von mehr als 3 sigma durchgeführt. Es wird eine gute Übereinstimmung mit der Next-to-leading-order-Vorhersage der Theorie gefunden. Kombiniert man die ee-, emu- und mumu-Endzustände, ergibt sich ein Wirkungsquerschnitt von sigma(WW) = 13.35+4.65-3.99(stat) +0.77-1.05(syst) +-0.87(Lum) pb.

Impact of treatment characteristics on response of different breast cancer phenotypes: pooled analysis of the German neo-adjuvant chemotherapy trials

Pathological complete response (pCR) to neoadjuvant treatment correlates with outcome in breast cancer. We determined whether characteristics of neoadjuvant therapy are associated with pCR. We used multi-level models, which accounted for heterogeneity in pCR across trials and trial arms, to analyze individual patient data from 3332 women included in 7 German neoadjuvant trials with uniform protocols. PCR was associated with an increase in number of chemotherapy cycles (odds ratio [OR] 1.2 for every two additional cycles; P = 0.009), with higher cumulative anthracycline doses (OR 1.6; P = 0.002), higher cumulative taxane doses (OR 1.6; P = 0.009), and with capecitabine containing regimens (OR 1.62; P = 0.022). Association of pCR with increase in number of cycles appeared more pronounced in hormone receptor (HR)-positive tumors (OR 1.35) than in HR-negative tumors (OR 1.04; P for interaction = 0.046). Effect of anthracycline dose was particularly pronounced in HER2-negative tumors (OR 1.61), compared to HER2-positive tumors (OR 0.83; P for interaction = 0.14). Simultaneous trastuzumab treatment in HER2-positive tumors increased odds of pCR 3.2-fold (P < 0.001). No association of pCR and number of trastuzumab cycles was found (OR 1.20, P = 0.39). Dosing characteristics appear important for successful treatment of breast cancer. Longer treatment, higher cumulative doses of anthracyclines and taxanes, and the addition of capecitabine and trastuzumab are associated with better response. Tailoring according to breast cancer phenotype might be possible: longer treatment in HR-positive tumors, higher cumulative anthracycline doses for HER2-negative tumors, shorter treatment at higher cumulative doses for triple-negative tumors, and limited number of preoperative trastuzumab cycles in HER2-positive tumors.

Sequential Quantitative Trait Locus Mapping in Experimental Crosses

The etiology of complex diseases is heterogeneous. The presence of risk alleles in one or more genetic loci affects the function of a variety of intermediate biological pathways, resulting in the overt expression of disease. Hence, there is an increasing focus on identifying the genetic basis of disease by sytematically studying phenotypic traits pertaining to the underlying biological functions. In this paper we focus on identifying genetic loci linked to quantitative phenotypic traits in experimental crosses. Such genetic mapping methods often use a one stage design by genotyping all the markers of interest on the available subjects. A genome scan based on single locus or multi-locus models is used to identify the putative loci. Since the number of quantitative trait loci (QTLs) is very likely to be small relative to the number of markers genotyped, a one-stage selective genotyping approach is commonly used to reduce the genotyping burden, whereby markers are genotyped solely on individuals with extreme trait values. This approach is powerful in the presence of a single quantitative trait locus (QTL) but may result in substantial loss of information in the presence of multiple QTLs. Here we investigate the efficiency of sequential two stage designs to identify QTLs in experimental populations. Our investigations for backcross and F2 crosses suggest that genotyping all the markers on 60% of the subjects in Stage 1 and genotyping the chromosomes significant at 20% level using additional subjects in Stage 2 and testing using all the subjects provides an efficient approach to identify the QTLs and utilizes only 70% of the genotyping burden relative to a one stage design, regardless of the heritability and genotyping density. Complex traits are a consequence of multiple QTLs conferring main effects as well as epistatic interactions. We propose a two-stage analytic approach where a single-locus genome scan is conducted in Stage 1 to identify promising chromosomes, and interactions are examined using the loci on these chromosomes in Stage 2. We examine settings under which the two-stage analytic approach provides sufficient power to detect the putative QTLs.