Correlating Bayesian date estimates with climatic events and domestication using a bovine case study

The tribe Bovini contains a number of commercially and culturally important species, such as cattle. Understanding their evolutionary time scale is important for distinguishing between post-glacial and domestication-associated population expansions, but estimates of bovine divergence times have been hindered by a lack of reliable calibration points. We present a Bayesian phylogenetic analysis of 481 mitochondrial D-loop sequences, including 228 radiocarbon-dated ancient DNA sequences, using a multi-demographic coalescent model. By employing the radiocarbon dates as internal calibrations, we co-estimate the bovine phylogeny and divergence times in a relaxed-clock framework. The analysis yields evidence for significant population expansions in both taurine and zebu cattle, European aurochs and yak clades. The divergence age estimates support domestication-associated expansion times (less than 12 kyr) for the major haplogroups of cattle. We compare the molecular and palaeontological estimates for the Bison-Bos divergence.

A new Snow-SVAT to simulate the accumulation and ablation of seasonal snow cover beneath a forest canopy

A new snow-soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer (Snow-SVAT) scheme, which simulates the accumulation and ablation of the snow cover beneath a forest canopy, is presented. The model was formulated by coupling a canopy optical and thermal radiation model to a physically-based multi-layer snow model. This canopy radiation model is physically-based yet requires few parameters, so can be used when extensive in-situ field measurements are not available. Other forest effects such as the reduction of wind speed, interception of snow on the canopy and the deposition of litter were incorporated within this combined model, SNOWCAN, which was tested with data taken as part of the Boreal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study (BOREAS) international collaborative experiment. Snow depths beneath four different canopy types and at an open site were simulated. Agreement between observed and simulated snow depths was generally good, with correlation coefficients ranging between r^2=0.94 and r^2=0.98 for all sites where automatic measurements were available. However, the simulated date of total snowpack ablation generally occurred later than the observed date. A comparison between simulated solar radiation and limited measurements of sub-canopy radiation at one site indicates that the model simulates the sub-canopy downwelling solar radiation early in the season to within measurement uncertainty.

Analysis of the eyes formed in simulated tropical cyclones and polar lows

The structure and size of the eyes generated in numerically simulated tropical cyclones and polar lows have been studied. A primitive-equation numerical model simulated systems in which the structures of the eyes formed were consistent with available observations. Whilst the tropical cyclone eyes generated were usually rapidly rotating, it appeared impossible for an eye formed in a system with a polar environment to develop this type of structure. The polar low eyes were found to be unable to warm through the subsidence of air with high values of potential temperature, as the environment was approximately statically neutral. Factors affecting the size of the eye were investigated through a series of controlled experiments. In mature tropical cyclone systems the size of the eye was insensitive to small changes in initial conditions, surface friction and latent and sensible heating from the ocean. In contrast, the eye size was strongly dependent on these parameters in the mature polar lows. Consistent with the findings, a mechanism is proposed in which the size of the eye in simulated polar lows is controlled by the strength of subsidence within it.

Forward modelling to determine the observational signatures of white-light imaging and interplanetary scintillation for the propagation of an interplanetary shock in the ecliptic plane

Recent coordinated observations of interplanetary scintillation (IPS) from the EISCAT, MERLIN, and STELab, and stereoscopic white-light imaging from the two heliospheric imagers (HIs) onboard the twin STEREO spacecraft are significant to continuously track the propagation and evolution of solar eruptions throughout interplanetary space. In order to obtain a better understanding of the observational signatures in these two remote-sensing techniques, the magnetohydrodynamics of the macro-scale interplanetary disturbance and the radio-wave scattering of the micro-scale electron-density fluctuation are coupled and investigated using a newly constructed multi-scale numerical model. This model is then applied to a case of an interplanetary shock propagation within the ecliptic plane. The shock could be nearly invisible to an HI, once entering the Thomson-scattering sphere of the HI. The asymmetry in the optical images between the western and eastern HIs suggests the shock propagation off the Sun–Earth line. Meanwhile, an IPS signal, strongly dependent on the local electron density, is insensitive to the density cavity far downstream of the shock front. When this cavity (or the shock nose) is cut through by an IPS ray-path, a single speed component at the flank (or the nose) of the shock can be recorded; when an IPS ray-path penetrates the sheath between the shock nose and this cavity, two speed components at the sheath and flank can be detected. Moreover, once a shock front touches an IPS ray-path, the derived position and speed at the irregularity source of this IPS signal, together with an assumption of a radial and constant propagation of the shock, can be used to estimate the later appearance of the shock front in the elongation of the HI field of view. The results of synthetic measurements from forward modelling are helpful in inferring the in-situ properties of coronal mass ejection from real observational data via an inverse approach.

Consumer welfare and the loss induced by withholding information: The case of BSE in Italy

The paper develops a measure of consumer welfare losses associated with withholding it formation about a possible link between BSE and vCJD. The Cost of Ignorance (COI) is measured by comparing the utility of the informed choice with the utility of the uninformed choice, under conditions of improved information. Unlike previous work that is largely based on a single equation demand model, the measure is obtained retrieving a cost,function from a dynamic Almost Ideal Demand System. The estimated perceived loss for Italian consumers due to delayed information ranges from 12 percent to 54 percent of total meat expenditure, depending on the month assumed to embody correct beliefs about the safety level of beef.

Numerical-asymptotic boundary integral methods in high-frequency acoustic scattering

In this article we describe recent progress on the design, analysis and implementation of hybrid numerical-asymptotic boundary integral methods for boundary value problems for the Helmholtz equation that model time harmonic acoustic wave scattering in domains exterior to impenetrable obstacles. These hybrid methods combine conventional piecewise polynomial approximations with high-frequency asymptotics to build basis functions suitable for representing the oscillatory solutions. They have the potential to solve scattering problems accurately in a computation time that is (almost) independent of frequency and this has been realized for many model problems. The design and analysis of this class of methods requires new results on the analysis and numerical analysis of highly oscillatory boundary integral operators and on the high-frequency asymptotics of scattering problems. The implementation requires the development of appropriate quadrature rules for highly oscillatory integrals. This article contains a historical account of the development of this currently very active field, a detailed account of recent progress and, in addition, a number of original research results on the design, analysis and implementation of these methods.

Modeling electrocortical activity through improved local approximations of integral neural field equations

Neural field models of firing rate activity typically take the form of integral equations with space-dependent axonal delays. Under natural assumptions on the synaptic connectivity we show how one can derive an equivalent partial differential equation (PDE) model that properly treats the axonal delay terms of the integral formulation. Our analysis avoids the so-called long-wavelength approximation that has previously been used to formulate PDE models for neural activity in two spatial dimensions. Direct numerical simulations of this PDE model show instabilities of the homogeneous steady state that are in full agreement with a Turing instability analysis of the original integral model. We discuss the benefits of such a local model and its usefulness in modeling electrocortical activity. In particular, we are able to treat “patchy” connections, whereby a homogeneous and isotropic system is modulated in a spatially periodic fashion. In this case the emergence of a “lattice-directed” traveling wave predicted by a linear instability analysis is confirmed by the numerical simulation of an appropriate set of coupled PDEs.

The financial and environmental performance of firms exposed to the EU Emissions Trading Scheme

This thesis is an empirical-based study of the European Union’s Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) and its implications in terms of corporate environmental and financial performance. The novelty of this study includes the extended scope of the data coverage, as most previous studies have examined only the power sector. The use of verified emissions data of ETS-regulated firms as the environmental compliance measure and as the potential differentiating criteria that concern the valuation of EU ETS-exposed firms in the stock market is also an original aspect of this study. The study begins in Chapter 2 by introducing the background information on the emission trading system (ETS), which focuses on (i) the adoption of ETS as an environmental management instrument and (ii) the adoption of ETS by the European Union as one of its central climate policies. Chapter 3 surveys four databases that provide carbon emissions data in order to determine the most suitable source of the data to be used in the later empirical chapters. The first empirical chapter, which is also Chapter 4 of this thesis, investigates the determinants of the emissions compliance performance of the EU ETS-exposed firms through constructing the best possible performance ratio from verified emissions data and self-configuring models for a panel regression analysis. Chapter 5 examines the impacts on the EU ETS-exposed firms in terms of their equity valuation with customised portfolios and multi-factor market models. The research design takes into account the emissions allowance (EUA) price as an additional factor, as it has the most direct association with the EU ETS to control for the exposure. The final empirical Chapter 6 takes the investigation one step further, by specifically testing the degree of ETS exposure facing different sectors with sector-based portfolios and an extended multi-factor market model. The findings from the emissions performance ratio analysis show that the business model of firms significantly influences emissions compliance, as the capital intensity has a positive association with the increasing emissions-to-emissions cap ratio. Furthermore, different sectors show different degrees of sensitivity towards the determining factors. The production factor influences the performance ratio of the Utilities sector, but not the Energy or Materials sectors. The results show that the capital intensity has a more profound influence on the utilities sector than on the materials sector. With regard to the financial performance impact, ETS-exposed firms as aggregate portfolios experienced a substantial underperformance during the 2001–2004 period, but not in the operating period of 2005–2011. The results of the sector-based portfolios show again the differentiating effect of the EU ETS on sectors, as one sector is priced indifferently against its benchmark, three sectors see a constant underperformance, and three sectors have altered outcomes.

Formal validation of automated policy refinement in the management of network security systems

Policy hierarchies and automated policy refinement are powerful approaches to simplify administration of security services in complex network environments. A crucial issue for the practical use of these approaches is to ensure the validity of the policy hierarchy, i.e. since the policy sets for the lower levels are automatically derived from the abstract policies (defined by the modeller), we must be sure that the derived policies uphold the high-level ones. This paper builds upon previous work on Model-based Management, particularly on the Diagram of Abstract Subsystems approach, and goes further to propose a formal validation approach for the policy hierarchies yielded by the automated policy refinement process. We establish general validation conditions for a multi-layered policy model, i.e. necessary and sufficient conditions that a policy hierarchy must satisfy so that the lower-level policy sets are valid refinements of the higher-level policies according to the criteria of consistency and completeness. Relying upon the validation conditions and upon axioms about the model representativeness, two theorems are proved to ensure compliance between the resulting system behaviour and the abstract policies that are modelled.

Accelerated aging of thick glass second surface silvered reflectors under sandstorm conditions

Concentrated solar power systems are expected to be sited in desert locations where the direct normal irradiation is above 1800 kWh/m2.year. These systems include large solar collector assemblies, which account for a significant share of the investment cost. Solarreflectors are the main components of these solar collector assemblies and dust/sand storms may affect their reflectance properties, either by soiling or by surface abrasion. While soiling can be reverted by cleaning, surface abrasion is a non reversible degradation.The aim of this project was to study the accelerated aging of second surface silvered thickglass solar reflectors under simulated sandstorm conditions and develop a multi-parametric model which relates the specular reflectance loss to dust/sand storm parameters: wind velocity, dust concentration and time of exposure. This project focused on the degradation caused by surface abrasion.Sandstorm conditions were simulated in a prototype environmental test chamber. Material samples (6cm x 6cm) were exposed to Arizona coarse test dust. The dust stream impactedthese material samples at a perpendicular angle. Both wind velocity and dust concentrationwere maintained at a stable level for each accelerated aging test. The total exposure time in the test chamber was limited to 1 hour. Each accelerated aging test was interrupted every 4 minutes to measure the specular reflectance of the material sample after cleaning.The accelerated aging test campaign had to be aborted prematurely due to a contamination of the dust concentration sensor. A robust multi-parametric degradation model could thus not be derived. The experimental data showed that the specular reflectance loss decreasedeither linearly or exponentially with exposure time, so that a degradation rate could be defined as a single modeling parameter. A correlation should be derived to relate this degradation rate to control parameters such as wind velocity and dust/sand concentration.The sandstorm chamber design would have to be updated before performing further accelerated aging test campaigns. The design upgrade should improve both the reliability of the test equipment and the repeatability of accelerated aging tests. An outdoor exposure test campaign should be launched in deserts to learn more about the intensity, frequencyand duration of dust/sand storms. This campaign would also serve to correlate the results of outdoor exposure tests with accelerated exposure tests in order to develop a robust service lifetime prediction model for different types of solar reflector materials.

Calibration Strategies Designed For Long Term Sediment Transport Modelling

The presented work deals with the calibration of a 2D numerical model for the simulation of long term bed load transport. A settled basin along an alpine stream was used as a case study. The focus is to parameterise the used multi fractional transport model such that a dynamically balanced behavior regarding erosion and deposition is reached. The used 2D hydrodynamic model utilizes a multi-fraction multi-layer approach to simulate morphological changes and bed load transport. The mass balancing is performed between three layers: a top mixing layer, an intermediate subsurface layer and a bottom layer. Using this approach bears computational limitations in calibration. Due to the high computational demands, the type of calibration strategy is not only crucial for the result, but as well for the time required for calibration. Brute force methods such as Monte Carlo type methods may require a too large number of model runs. All here tested calibration strategies used multiple model runs utilising the parameterization and/or results from previous run. One concept was to reset to initial bed elevations after each run, allowing the resorting process to convert to stable conditions. As an alternative or in combination, the roughness was adapted, based on resulting nodal grading curves, from the previous run. Since the adaptations are a spatial process, the whole model domain is subdivided in homogeneous sections regarding hydraulics and morphological behaviour. For a faster optimization, the adaptation of the parameters is made section wise. Additionally, a systematic variation was done, considering results from previous runs and the interaction between sections. The used approach can be considered as similar to evolutionary type calibration approaches, but using analytical links instead of random parameter changes.

Parameterization Of Turbulence Models Using 3DVAR Data Assimilation

In this research the 3DVAR data assimilation scheme is implemented in the numerical model DIVAST in order to optimize the performance of the numerical model by selecting an appropriate turbulence scheme and tuning its parameters. Two turbulence closure schemes: the Prandtl mixing length model and the two-equation k-ε model were incorporated into DIVAST and examined with respect to their universality of application, complexity of solutions, computational efficiency and numerical stability. A square harbour with one symmetrical entrance subject to tide-induced flows was selected to investigate the structure of turbulent flows. The experimental part of the research was conducted in a tidal basin. A significant advantage of such laboratory experiment is a fully controlled environment where domain setup and forcing are user-defined. The research shows that the Prandtl mixing length model and the two-equation k-ε model, with default parameterization predefined according to literature recommendations, overestimate eddy viscosity which in turn results in a significant underestimation of velocity magnitudes in the harbour. The data assimilation of the model-predicted velocity and laboratory observations significantly improves model predictions for both turbulence models by adjusting modelled flows in the harbour to match de-errored observations. 3DVAR allows also to identify and quantify shortcomings of the numerical model. Such comprehensive analysis gives an optimal solution based on which numerical model parameters can be estimated. The process of turbulence model optimization by reparameterization and tuning towards optimal state led to new constants that may be potentially applied to complex turbulent flows, such as rapidly developing flows or recirculating flows.

Optimal Rehabilitation Strategy In Water Distribution Systems Considering Reduction In Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Most of water distribution systems (WDS) need rehabilitation due to aging infrastructure leading to decreasing capacity, increasing leakage and consequently low performance of the WDS. However an appropriate strategy including location and time of pipeline rehabilitation in a WDS with respect to a limited budget is the main challenge which has been addressed frequently by researchers and practitioners. On the other hand, selection of appropriate rehabilitation technique and material types is another main issue which has yet to address properly. The latter can affect the environmental impacts of a rehabilitation strategy meeting the challenges of global warming mitigation and consequent climate change. This paper presents a multi-objective optimization model for rehabilitation strategy in WDS addressing the abovementioned criteria mainly focused on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions either directly from fossil fuel and electricity or indirectly from embodied energy of materials. Thus, the objective functions are to minimise: (1) the total cost of rehabilitation including capital and operational costs; (2) the leakage amount; (3) GHG emissions. The Pareto optimal front containing optimal solutions is determined using Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm NSGA-II. Decision variables in this optimisation problem are classified into a number of groups as: (1) percentage proportion of each rehabilitation technique each year; (2) material types of new pipeline for rehabilitation each year. Rehabilitation techniques used here includes replacement, rehabilitation and lining, cleaning, pipe duplication. The developed model is demonstrated through its application to a Mahalat WDS located in central part of Iran. The rehabilitation strategy is analysed for a 40 year planning horizon. A number of conventional techniques for selecting pipes for rehabilitation are analysed in this study. The results show that the optimal rehabilitation strategy considering GHG emissions is able to successfully save the total expenses, efficiently decrease the leakage amount from the WDS whilst meeting environmental criteria.

Dynamic hedging in Markov regimes

This dissertation proposes a bivariate markov switching dynamic conditional correlation model for estimating the optimal hedge ratio between spot and futures contracts. It considers the cointegration between series and allows to capture the leverage efect in return equation. The model is applied using daily data of future and spot prices of Bovespa Index and R$/US$ exchange rate. The results in terms of variance reduction and utility show that the bivariate markov switching model outperforms the strategies based ordinary least squares and error correction models.

Vulnerabilidade situacional afetando a intenção comportamental: um estudo no setor de serviços automotivos

Considerando os avanços da pesquisa e teoria da psicologia do risco e, em particular, da perspectiva do risco como sentimentos, ressaltando a interação entre cognição e emoção na análise de ameaças, esta tese propõe e testa um modelo conceitual sobre o efeito da vulnerabilidade (risco como sentimento) em intenções comportamentais de serviços relacionados a automóveis. Este estudo teve como hipótese que a autoeficácia percebida pelo consumidor diminui ou elimina o efeito da vulnerabilidade nas intenções comportamentais de perpetuidade de relacionamento com a empresa de serviço. Estimularam o interesse de pesquisa tanto a carência de pesquisas sobre o papel da vulnerabilidade no consumo de serviços não relacionados à área da saúde ou ao corpo do consumidor, quanto a carência de pesquisas sobre a relação entre a vulnerabilidade e as intenções comportamentais. Testou-se em um único modelo, o impacto previsto pelos processos cognitivos e afetivos que envolvem a análise de ameaça (sentimentos de vulnerabilidade, risco e severidade das falhas) e de capacidade de enfrentamento (autoeficácia) na intenção comportamental, no contexto específico de consumo de serviços relativos a automóveis. O modelo de mensuração proposto foi avaliado quanto à dimensionalidade, validade e confiabilidade pelo uso de análise fatorial confirmatória; posteriormente, avaliou-se a relação causal proposta nas hipóteses pelo modelo completo de equações estruturais. O modelo de mensuração proposto foi avaliado quanto à dimensionalidade, validade e confiabilidade pelo uso de análise fatorial confirmatória; posteriormente, avaliou-se a relação proposta nas hipóteses pelo modelo completo de equações estruturais, usando-se o software Amos e a estimativa por máxima verossimilhança. O modelo foi estimado em uma amostra de 202 respondentes. Os dados foram coletados por meio de um levantamento eletrônico transversal e os achados da pesquisa apontam para a confirmação das hipóteses de que (1) o risco percebido cognitivamente, sentimentos de vulnerabilidade e a autoeficácia influenciam as intenções comportamentais. Não foi possível suportar a hipótese de que (2) a severidade das possíveis falhas de serviço tem relação com risco ou com sentimentos de vulnerabilidade. Esses achados ajudam a compreender a relação entre intenções comportamentais e sentimentos de vulnerabilidade. Implicações para o desenvolvimento teórico da pesquisa na área e implicações gerenciais são discutidas. Os resultados auxiliam a compreensão dos resultados de estudos realizados nos EUA nas últimas décadas. Os achados oferecem uma contribuição teórica ao entendimento do fenômeno da vulnerabilidade, a adaptação de uma escala de medida para o fenômeno no contexto brasileiro e aplicado a serviços que não sejam de saúde e cuidados com o corpo. Do ponto de vista gerencial, o estudo alerta para o fato de a vulnerabilidade exercer influência no desempenho comercial de empresas de serviços automotivos, visto que ela influência negativamente a recomendação positiva e a manutenção de relacionamentos de negócios. Os achados sugerem que os gestores de empresas de serviços devem empreender esforços para reduzir a vulnerabilidade do consumidor por meio de informações que o auxiliem na negociação e avaliação do serviço ao minimizar incertezas.