Infant mortality: comparison between two birth cohorts from Southeast and Northeast, Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To obtain population estimates and profile risk factors for infant mortality in two birth cohorts and compare them among cities of different regions in Brazil. METHODS: In Ribeirão Preto, southeast Brazil, infant mortality was determined in a third of hospital live births (2,846 singleton deliveries) in 1994. In São Luís, northeast Brazil, data were obtained using systematic sampling of births stratified by maternity unit (2,443 singleton deliveries) in 1997-1998. Mothers answered standardized questionnaires shortly after delivery and information on infant deaths was retrieved from hospitals, registries and the States Health Secretarys' Office. The relative risk (RR) was estimated by Poisson regression. RESULTS: In São Luís, the infant mortality rate was 26.6/1,000 live births, the neonatal mortality rate was 18.4/1,000 and the post-neonatal mortality rate was 8.2/1,000, all higher than those observed in Ribeirão Preto (16.9, 10.9 and 6.0 per 1,000, respectively). Adjusted analysis revealed that previous stillbirths (RR=3.67 vs 4.13) and maternal age <18 years (RR=2.62 vs 2.59) were risk factors for infant mortality in the two cities. Inadequate prenatal care (RR=2.00) and male sex (RR=1.79) were risk factors in São Luís only, and a dwelling with 5 or more residents was a protective factor (RR=0.53). In Ribeirão Preto, maternal smoking was associated with infant mortality (RR=2.64). CONCLUSIONS: In addition to socioeconomic inequalities, differences in access to and quality of medical care between cities had an impact on infant mortality rates.

Ill-defined causes of death in Brazil: a redistribution method based on the investigation of such causes

OBJECTIVE To propose a method of redistributing ill-defined causes of death (IDCD) based on the investigation of such causes.METHODS In 2010, an evaluation of the results of investigating the causes of death classified as IDCD in accordance with chapter 18 of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10) by the Mortality Information System was performed. The redistribution coefficients were calculated according to the proportional distribution of ill-defined causes reclassified after investigation in any chapter of the ICD-10, except for chapter 18, and used to redistribute the ill-defined causes not investigated and remaining by sex and age. The IDCD redistribution coefficient was compared with two usual methods of redistribution: a) Total redistribution coefficient, based on the proportional distribution of all the defined causes originally notified and b) Non-external redistribution coefficient, similar to the previous, but excluding external causes.RESULTS Of the 97,314 deaths by ill-defined causes reported in 2010, 30.3% were investigated, and 65.5% of those were reclassified as defined causes after the investigation. Endocrine diseases, mental disorders, and maternal causes had a higher representation among the reclassified ill-defined causes, contrary to infectious diseases, neoplasms, and genitourinary diseases, with higher proportions among the defined causes reported. External causes represented 9.3% of the ill-defined causes reclassified. The correction of mortality rates by the total redistribution coefficient and non-external redistribution coefficient increased the magnitude of the rates by a relatively similar factor for most causes, contrary to the IDCD redistribution coefficient that corrected the different causes of death with differentiated weights.CONCLUSIONS The proportional distribution of causes among the ill-defined causes reclassified after investigation was not similar to the original distribution of defined causes. Therefore, the redistribution of the remaining ill-defined causes based on the investigation allows for more appropriate estimates of the mortality risk due to specific causes.

Multiple skin neoplasms in subjects under 40 years of age in Goiania, Brazil

OBJECTIVE To describe the trend for malignant skin neoplasms in subjects under 40 years of age in a region with high ultraviolet radiation indices.METHODS A descriptive epidemiological study on melanoma and nonmelanoma skin cancers that was conducted in Goiania, Midwest Brazil, with 1,688 people under 40 years of age, between 1988 and 2009. Cases were obtained fromRegistro de Câncer de Base Populacional de Goiânia(Goiania’s Population-Based Cancer File). Frequency, trends, and incidence of cases with single and multiple lesions were analyzed; transplants and genetic skin diseases were found in cases with multiple lesions.RESULTS Over the period, 1,995 skin cancer cases were observed to found, of which 1,524 (90.3%) cases had single lesions and 164 (9.7%) had multiple lesions. Regarding single lesions, incidence on men was observed to have risen from 2.4 to 3.1/100,000 inhabitants; it differed significantly for women, shifting from 2.3 to 5.3/100,000 (Annual percentage change – [APC] 3.0%, p = 0.006). Regarding multiple lesions, incidence on men was observed to have risen from 0.30 to 0.98/100,000 inhabitants; for women, it rose from 0.43 to 1.16/100,000 (APC 8.6%, p = 0.003). Genetic skin diseases or transplants were found to have been correlated with 10.0% of cases with multiple lesions – an average of 5.1 lesions per patient. The average was 2.5 in cases without that correlation.CONCLUSIONS Skin cancer on women under 40 years of age has been observed to be increasing for both cases with single and multiple lesions. It is not unusual to find multiple tumors in young people – in most cases, they are not associated with genetic skin diseases or transplants. It is necessary to avoid excessive exposure to ultraviolet radiation from childhood.

Fetal deaths in Brazil: a systematic review

OBJECTIVE To review the frequency of and factors associated with fetal death in the Brazilian scientific literature.METHODS A systematic review of Brazilian studies on fetal deaths published between 2003 and 2013 was conducted. In total, 27 studies were analyzed; of these, 4 studies addressed the quality of data, 12 were descriptive studies, and 11 studies evaluated the factors associated with fetal death. The databases searched were PubMed and Lilacs, and data extraction and synthesis were independently performed by two or more examiners.RESULTS The level of completeness of fetal death certificates was deficient, both in the completion of variables, particularly sociodemographic variables, and in defining the underlying causes of death. Fetal deaths have decreased in Brazil; however, inequalities persist. Analysis of the causes of death indicated maternal morbidities that could be prevented and treated. The main factors associated with fetal deaths were absent or inadequate prenatal care, low education level, maternal morbidity, and adverse reproductive history.CONCLUSIONS Prenatal care should prioritize women that are most vulnerable (considering their social environment or their reproductive history and morbidities) with the aim of decreasing the fetal mortality rate in Brazil. Adequate completion of death certificates and investment in the committees that investigate fetal and infant deaths are necessary.

Resultados da Angioplastia Primária num Centro de Referência. Evolução Intra-Hospitalar

INTRODUCTION: Primary angioplasty is accepted as the preferred treatment for acute myocardial infarction in the first 12 hours. However, outcomes depend to a large extent on the volume of activity and experience of the center. Continuous monitoring of methods and results obtained is therefore crucial to quality control. OBJECTIVE: To describe the demographic, clinical and angiographic characteristics as well as in-hospital outcomes of patients undergoing primary PCI in a high-volume Portuguese center. We also aimed to identify variables associated with in-hospital mortality in this population. METHODS: This was a retrospective registry of consecutive primary PCIs performed at Santa Marta Hospital between January 2001 and August 2007. Demographic, clinical, and angiographic characteristics and in-hospital outcomes were analyzed. Independent predictors of in-hospital mortality were identified by multivariate logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: A total of 1157 patients were identified, mean age 61+/-12 years, 76% male. Mean pain-to-balloon time was 7.6 hours and primary angiographic success was 88%. Overall in-hospital mortality was 6.9%, or 5.5% if patients presenting in cardiogenic shock were excluded from the analysis. Previous history of heart failure, cardiogenic shock on admission, invasive ventilatory support, major hemorrhage, and age over 75 years were found to be associated with increased risk of in-hospital death. Conclusions: In this center primary PCI is effective and safe. Angiographic success rates and in-hospital mortality and morbidity are similar to other international registries. Patients at increased risk for adverse outcome can be identified by simple clinical characteristics such as advanced age, cardiogenic shock on admission, mechanical ventilation and major hemorrhage during hospitalization.

Impacto da Idade no Tratamento e Resultados Após Enfarte Agudo do Miocárdio em Particular nos Muito Idosos

INTRODUCTION: The elderly population admitted for acute myocardial infarction is increasing. This group is not well studied in international trials and is probably treated with a more conservative approach. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the presentation and treatment of myocardial infarction according to age, particularly in very elderly patients. METHODS: We studied 1242 consecutive patients admitted with acute myocardial infarction, assessing in-hospital, 30-day and one-year mortality during follow-up for each age-group. Patients were divided into four groups according to age: <45 years (7.6%); 45-64 years (43.3%); 65-74 years (23.4%); and ≥75 years (25.7%). RESULTS: Elderly patients had a worse risk profile (except for smoking), more previous history of coronary disease and a worse profile on admission, with the exception of lipid profile, which was more favorable. With regard to treatment of the elderly, although less optimized than in other age-groups, it was significantly better compared to other registries, including for percutaneous coronary angioplasty. Both complications and mortality were worse in the older groups. In elderly patients (≥75 years), adjusted risk of mortality was 4.9-6.3 times higher (p<0.001) than patients in the reference age-group (45-64 years). In these patients, the independent predictors of death were left ventricular function and renal function, use of beta-blockers being a predictor of survival. CONCLUSIONS: Elderly patients represent a substantial proportion of the population admitted with myocardial infarction, and receive less evidenced-based therapy. Age is an independent predictor of short- and medium-term mortality.

Position Statement on Bioresorbable Vascular Scaffolds in Portugal

BACKGROUND: Bioresorbable vascular scaffolds (BVS) were recently approved for percutaneous coronary intervention in Europe. The aim of this position statement is to review the information and studies on available BVS, to stimulate discussion on their use and to propose guidelines for this treatment option in Portugal. METHODS AND RESULTS: A working group was set up to reach a consensus based on current evidence, discussion of clinical case models and individual experience. The evidence suggests that currently available BVS can produce physiological and clinical improvements in selected patients. There are encouraging data on their durability and long-term safety. Initial indications were grouped into three categories: (a) consensual and appropriate - young patients, diabetic patients, left anterior descending artery, long lesions, diffuse disease, and hybrid strategy; (b) less consensual but possible - small collateral branches, stabilized acute coronary syndromes; and (c) inappropriate - left main disease, tortuosity, severe calcification. CONCLUSION: BVS are a viable treatment option based on the encouraging evidence of their applicability and physiological and clinical results. They should be used in appropriate indications and will require technical adaptations. Outcome monitoring and evaluation is essential to avoid inappropriate use. It is recommended that medical societies produce clinical guidelines based on high-quality registries as soon as possible.

Cancer Rehabilitation Indicators for Europe

Little is known of cancer rehabilitation needs in Europe. EUROCHIP-3 organised a group of experts to propose a list of population-based indicators used for describing cancer rehabilitation across Europe. The aim of this study is to present and discuss these indicators. A EUROCHIP-3 expert panel reached agreement on two types of indicators. (a) Cancer prevalence indicators. These were proposed as a means of characterising the burden of cancer rehabilitation needs by time from diagnosis and patient health status. These indicators can be estimated from cancer registry data or by collecting data on follow-up and treatments for samples of cases archived in cancer registries. (b) Indicators of rehabilitation success. These include: return to work, quality of life, and satisfaction of specific rehabilitation needs. Studies can be performed to estimate these indicators in individual countries, but to obtain comparable data across European countries it will be necessary to administer a questionnaire to randomly selected samples of patients from population-based cancer registry databases. However, three factors complicate questionnaire studies: patients may not be aware that they have cancer; incomplete participation in surveys could lead to bias; and national confidentiality laws in some cases prohibit cancer registries from approaching patients. Although these studies are expensive and difficult to perform, but as the number of cancer survivors increases, it is important to document their needs in order to provide information on cancer control.

Validation of Two US Risk Scores for Percutaneous Coronary Intervention in a Single-Center Portuguese Population of Patients with Acute Coronary Syndrome

INTRODUCTION: New scores have been developed and validated in the US for in-hospital mortality risk stratification in patients undergoing coronary angioplasty: the National Cardiovascular Data Registry (NCDR) risk score and the Mayo Clinic Risk Score (MCRS). We sought to validate these scores in a European population with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and to compare their predictive accuracy with that of the GRACE risk score. METHODS: In a single-center ACS registry of patients undergoing coronary angioplasty, we used the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), a graphical representation of observed vs. expected mortality, and net reclassification improvement (NRI)/integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) analysis to compare the scores. RESULTS: A total of 2148 consecutive patients were included, mean age 63 years (SD 13), 74% male and 71% with ST-segment elevation ACS. In-hospital mortality was 4.5%. The GRACE score showed the best AUC (0.94, 95% CI 0.91-0.96) compared with NCDR (0.87, 95% CI 0.83-0.91, p=0.0003) and MCRS (0.85, 95% CI 0.81-0.90, p=0.0003). In model calibration analysis, GRACE showed the best predictive power. With GRACE, patients were more often correctly classified than with MCRS (NRI 78.7, 95% CI 59.6-97.7; IDI 0.136, 95% CI 0.073-0.199) or NCDR (NRI 79.2, 95% CI 60.2-98.2; IDI 0.148, 95% CI 0.087-0.209). CONCLUSION: The NCDR and Mayo Clinic risk scores are useful for risk stratification of in-hospital mortality in a European population of patients with ACS undergoing coronary angioplasty. However, the GRACE score is still to be preferred.

Suicide study : a psychological autopsy

RESUMO: O'suicídio'é'atualmente'um'problema'de'saúde'pública.'Estimarse'que'um'milhão'de'pessoas' morra'anualmente'devido'ao'suicídio.'De'acordo'com'diversas'agências'e'organizações'estimar 'que'ocorram'entre'20'a'40'tentativas'de'suicídio'por'cada'suicídio'consumado.'Os'custos'associados'ao'suicídio,'quer'humanos'quer'económicos'são'enormes'e'estendemrse'à'família,'emprego,'economia'e'finanças.'Os'números'oficiais'do'suicídio'em'Portugal'indicam'uma'taxa ligeiramente'acima'dos'10'por' cada'100'000'habitantes'mas' comportando' regiões'onde' são'observadas' taxas' muito' elevadas,' como' no' Sudoeste' de' Portugal' onde' se' observam particularmente taxas 3'vezes'acima'da'média'nacional.' Investigámos' o' fenómeno' com' os' objetivos' de' validar' a' técnica' de' autópsia' psicológica' em' contexto' comunitário' nunca' realizado' em' Portugal,' e' dar' um' contributo' para' uma' compreensão'mais'alargada'deste'problema'de'saúde'pública,'especialmente'nesta'região'de' Odemira.' A' autópsia' psicológica' consiste' em' reunir' detalhadamente' informação' sobre' a'personalidade' e' vida' de' alguém' que' morreu' em' circunstâncias' equívocas' (por' suicídio,' homicídio' ou' acidente)'recorrendo'ainda'a'registos'e'documentação,'bem'como'procedendo'a entrevistas' com' familiares,' colegas' ou' amigos.' Foi' feita' uma' adaptação' de' uma' entrevista' semirestruturada' para' o' efeito.' Foram' recrutados' 2' grupos' de' participantes:' um' grupo' de familiares de pessoas que cometeram'suicídio'(n=30)'e'um'grupo'de'familiares'de'pessoas'que morreram de causas' naturais' (n=24).' O' estudo' decorreu' em' 3' momentos' com' sessões' de' apresentação' (i),' sessões' de' preparação' (ii)' e' entrevistas' para' recolha' de' informação' e'monitorização.'' Os' principais' resultados'mostram' que' existiram' dificuldades' na' obtenção' da' informação' a'partir' dos' entrevistados,' a'maioria' dos' suicidas' eram'homens' acima' dos' 40' anos' de' idade,' afetados' por' lesões' graves' ou' doenças' graves' ' no' período' adulto' embora' apresentassem'condições' válidas' para' trabalhar,' reformados,' vivendo' em' família,' com' traços' de'personalidade' amargurados,' tristes' ou' pessimistas,' com' escassas' atividades' nos' tempos' de' lazer,' sem' problemas' somáticos' significativos' ou' perturbações'mentais' que' comunicaram' a intenção de morrer previamente'e'provenientes'de'famílias'sem'dificuldades'económicas'ou'relações'familiares'desadequadas.' Tendo'em'conta'a'literatura,'algumas'das'características'parecem'ser'muito'particulares'desta'população.'Aparentemente'o'suicídio'poderá'ter'implicações'genéticas'que'deveriam'ser'tidas'em'conta'em'futuras'investigações.' A'integração'da'saúde'mental'nos'cuidados'de'saúde'primários'afigurarse'urgente'tendo'em' conta' que' a' escassez' de' profissionais' de' saúde'mental' é' enorme' numa' parte' do' país' onde'ocorre' o'maior'número'de' suicídios.'Mudar'de'modelo'e'reorganizar'os' serviços'de' forma'a' poder' dar' uma' resposta' ao' défice' de' tratamento' de' saúde' mental' e' ter' em' conta' os' determinantes'sociais'da'saúde'para'fazer'face'ao'isolamento'é'fundamental.' ---------------ABSTRACT: Suicide' is,'nowadays,' a'public'health'problem.'A'million'dies' annually'by' suicide'worldwide.' According'to'several'agencies'and'organizations'an'estimation'of'20'to'40'suicide'attempts'is advanced for each complete' suicide. Associated'costs'to'suicide,'both'human'and'economic,'are' huge' and' spread' on' family,' jobs,' economy,' and' finances.' Official' available' figures' for' suicide' in' Portugal' indicate' a' rate' slightly' over' 10' for' each' 100' 000' inhabitants,' but' with'regions'where'one' can' actually' find'extremely'high' rates,' like' for' instance' in' the'Southwest' part' of' the' country,' where' are' regularly' found' rates' 3' times' higher,' when' compared' to'national'average.'' We' have' investigated' the' phenomenon' aiming' to' validate' the' technique' of' psychological'autopsy' in' a' community' context' never' explored' before' in' Portugal' and' to' contribute' for' a' wider' understanding' of' this' public' health' problem,' especially' in' this' region' of' Odemira.' Psychological'autopsy'consists'into'a'detailed'gathering'of'information'about'the'personality'and' life' of' someone' died' in' equivocal' circumstances' (suicide,' homicide,' accident),' registries and other'documentation'as'well'as'interviews'with'family'members,'corworkers'and'friends.' An' adaptation' of' a' semirstructured' interview' was' made.' Two' groups' of' participants' were'recruited: a'group of'relatives'of'people'committing'suicide'(n=30),'and'a'group'of'relatives'of'people' whose' death' was' after' natural' causes' (n=24).' Study' was'made' in' 3'moments' with'presentation'sessions;'(i)'preparation'sessions;'(ii)'interviewing'data'collection'and'monitoring' iii).'' Main'results'showed'difficulties'to'obtain'information'from'interviewees,'most'suicides'were' from males over 40 years old, affected'by'serious'illness'or'severe'injury'in'adulthood'but'valid'to'work,'retired,'living'in'family,'with'bitterness,'sad'or'pessimistic'as'personality'traits,'with'few' leisure' activities,' without' significant' health' somatic' problems' or' mental' disorders,'communicating'intention'to'die'previously,'coming'from'families'with'no'indication'of'financial'distress'or'inadequate'family'relationship.' Taking'into'account'the'literature'it'looks'like'some'features'seem'to'be'quiet'particular'from'this'population.'Apparently'one'might'say'that'suicide'could'have'genetic'implications'which'further'research'should'account'in'the'future.' Integration' of'mental' health' into' primary' care' is' urgent' once' the' scarcity' of'mental' health' professionals' is' enormous' in' a' part' of' the' country' where' most' suicides' occur.' Scaling' up services must go in order'to'address'to'treatment'gap'and'social'determinants'of'health'should'be'taken'into'account'to'face'isolation.' Results' show' that' the' profile' of' the' suicidal' in' the' region' of' Odemira' is' particular' and'implications' of' genetics' should' be' taken' into' account.' Moreover' much' can' be' done' in'organization' of' services' in' the' region' where' we' performed' the' present' study' in' order' to'address'to'treatment'gap'for'mental'disorders'and'to'the'social'determinants'of'health.

Métodos estatísticos aplicados à modelação de dados oncológicos

RESUMO: A estrutura demográfica portuguesa é marcada por baixas taxas de natalidade e mortalidade, onde a população idosa representa uma fatia cada vez mais representativa, fruto de uma maior longevidade. A incidência do cancro, na sua generalidade, é maior precisamente nessa classe etária. A par de outras doenças igualmente lesivas (e.g. cardiovasculares, degenerativas) cuja incidência aumenta com a idade, o cancro merece relevo. Estudos epidemiológicos apresentam o cancro como líder mundial na mortalidade. Em países desenvolvidos, o seu peso representa 25% do número total de óbitos, percentagem essa que mais que duplica noutros países. A obesidade, a baixa ingestão de frutas e vegetais, o sedentarismo, o consumo de tabaco e a ingestão de álcool, configuram-se como cinco dos fatores de risco presentes em 30% das mortes diagnosticadas por cancro. A nível mundial e, em particular no Sul de Portugal, os cancros do estômago, recto e cólon apresentam elevadas taxas de incidência e de mortalidade. Do ponto de vista estritamente económico, o cancro é a doença que mais recursos consome enquanto que do ponto de vista físico e psicológico é uma doença que não limita o seu raio de ação ao doente. O cancro é, portanto, uma doença sempre atual e cada vez mais presente, pois reflete os hábitos e o ambiente de uma sociedade, não obstante as características intrínsecas a cada indivíduo. A adoção de metodologia estatística aplicada à modelação de dados oncológicos é, sobretudo, valiosa e pertinente quando a informação é oriunda de Registos de Cancro de Base Populacional (RCBP). A pertinência é justificada pelo fato destes registos permitirem aferir numa população específica, o risco desta sofrer e/ou vir a sofrer de uma dada neoplasia. O peso que as neoplasias do estômago, cólon e recto assumem foi um dos elementos que motivou o presente estudo que tem por objetivo analisar tendências, projeções, sobrevivências relativas e a distribuição espacial destas neoplasias. Foram considerados neste estudo todos os casos diagnosticados no período 1998-2006, pelo RCBP da região sul de Portugal (ROR-Sul). O estudo descritivo inicial das taxas de incidência e da tendência em cada uma das referidas neoplasias teve como base uma única variável temporal - o ano de diagnóstico - também designada por período. Todavia, uma metodologia que contemple apenas uma única variável temporal é limitativa. No cancro, para além do período, a idade à data do diagnóstico e a coorte de nascimento, são variáveis temporais que poderão prestar um contributo adicional na caracterização das taxas de incidência. A relevância assumida por estas variáveis temporais justificou a sua inclusão numaclasse de modelos designada por modelos Idade-Período-Coorte (Age-Period-Cohort models - APC), utilizada na modelação das taxas de incidência para as neoplasias em estudo. Os referidos modelos permitem ultrapassar o problema de relações não lineares e/ou de mudanças súbitas na tendência linear das taxas. Nos modelos APC foram consideradas a abordagem clássica e a abordagem com recurso a funções suavizadoras. A modelação das taxas foi estratificada por sexo. Foram ainda estudados os respectivos submodelos (apenas com uma ou duas variáveis temporais). Conhecido o comportamento das taxas de incidência, uma questão subsequente prende-se com a sua projeção em períodos futuros. Porém, o efeito de mudanças estruturais na população, ao qual Portugal não é alheio, altera substancialmente o número esperado de casos futuros com cancro. Estimativas da incidência de cancro a nível mundial obtidas a partir de projeções demográficas apontam para um aumento de 25% dos casos de cancro nas próximas duas décadas. Embora a projeção da incidência esteja associada a alguma incerteza, as projeções auxiliam no planeamento de políticas de saúde para a afetação de recursos e permitem a avaliação de cenários e de intervenções que tenham como objetivo a redução do impacto do cancro. O desconhecimento de projeções da taxa de incidência destas neoplasias na área abrangida pelo ROR-Sul, levou à utilização de modelos de projeção que diferem entre si quanto à sua estrutura, linearidade (ou não) dos seus coeficientes e comportamento das taxas na série histórica de dados (e.g. crescente, decrescente ou estável). Os referidos modelos pautaram-se por duas abordagens: (i)modelos lineares no que concerne ao tempo e (ii) extrapolação de efeitos temporais identificados pelos modelos APC para períodos futuros. Foi feita a projeção das taxas de incidência para os anos de 2007 a 2010 tendo em conta o género, idade e neoplasia. É ainda apresentada uma estimativa do impacto económico destas neoplasias no período de projeção. Uma questão pertinente e habitual no contexto clínico e a que o presente estudo pretende dar resposta, reside em saber qual a contribuição da neoplasia em si para a sobrevivência do doente. Nesse sentido, a mortalidade por causa específica é habitualmente utilizada para estimar a mortalidade atribuível apenas ao cancro em estudo. Porém, existem muitas situações em que a causa de morte é desconhecida e, mesmo que esta informação esteja disponível através dos certificados de óbito, não é fácil distinguir os casos em que a principal causa de morte é devida ao cancro. A sobrevivência relativa surge como uma medida objetiva que não necessita do conhecimento da causa específica da morte para o seu cálculo e dar-nos-á uma estimativa da probabilidade de sobrevivência caso o cancro em análise, num cenário hipotético, seja a única causa de morte. Desconhecida a principal causa de morte nos casos diagnosticados com cancro no registo ROR-Sul, foi determinada a sobrevivência relativa para cada uma das neoplasias em estudo, para um período de follow-up de 5 anos, tendo em conta o sexo, a idade e cada uma das regiões que constituem o registo. Foi adotada uma análise por período e as abordagens convencional e por modelos. No epílogo deste estudo, é analisada a influência da variabilidade espaço-temporal nas taxas de incidência. O longo período de latência das doenças oncológicas, a dificuldade em identificar mudanças súbitas no comportamento das taxas, populações com dimensão e riscos reduzidos, são alguns dos elementos que dificultam a análise da variação temporal das taxas. Nalguns casos, estas variações podem ser reflexo de flutuações aleatórias. O efeito da componente temporal aferida pelos modelos APC dá-nos um retrato incompleto da incidência do cancro. A etiologia desta doença, quando conhecida, está associada com alguma frequência a fatores de risco tais como condições socioeconómicas, hábitos alimentares e estilo de vida, atividade profissional, localização geográfica e componente genética. O “contributo”, dos fatores de risco é, por vezes, determinante e não deve ser ignorado. Surge, assim, a necessidade em complementar o estudo temporal das taxas com uma abordagem de cariz espacial. Assim, procurar-se-á aferir se as variações nas taxas de incidência observadas entre os concelhos inseridos na área do registo ROR-Sul poderiam ser explicadas quer pela variabilidade temporal e geográfica quer por fatores socioeconómicos ou, ainda, pelos desiguais estilos de vida. Foram utilizados os Modelos Bayesianos Hierárquicos Espaço-Temporais com o objetivo de identificar tendências espaço-temporais nas taxas de incidência bem como quantificar alguns fatores de risco ajustados à influência simultânea da região e do tempo. Os resultados obtidos pela implementação de todas estas metodologias considera-se ser uma mais valia para o conhecimento destas neoplasias em Portugal.------------ABSTRACT: mortality rates, with the elderly being an increasingly representative sector of the population, mainly due to greater longevity. The incidence of cancer, in general, is greater precisely in that age group. Alongside with other equally damaging diseases (e.g. cardiovascular,degenerative), whose incidence rates increases with age, cancer is of special note. In epidemiological studies, cancer is the global leader in mortality. In developed countries its weight represents 25% of the total number of deaths, with this percentage being doubled in other countries. Obesity, a reduce consumption of fruit and vegetables, physical inactivity, smoking and alcohol consumption, are the five risk factors present in 30% of deaths due to cancer. Globally, and in particular in the South of Portugal, the stomach, rectum and colon cancer have high incidence and mortality rates. From a strictly economic perspective, cancer is the disease that consumes more resources, while from a physical and psychological point of view, it is a disease that is not limited to the patient. Cancer is therefore na up to date disease and one of increased importance, since it reflects the habits and the environment of a society, regardless the intrinsic characteristics of each individual. The adoption of statistical methodology applied to cancer data modelling is especially valuable and relevant when the information comes from population-based cancer registries (PBCR). In such cases, these registries allow for the assessment of the risk and the suffering associated to a given neoplasm in a specific population. The weight that stomach, colon and rectum cancers assume in Portugal was one of the motivations of the present study, that focus on analyzing trends, projections, relative survival and spatial distribution of these neoplasms. The data considered in this study, are all cases diagnosed between 1998 and 2006, by the PBCR of Portugal, ROR-Sul.Only year of diagnosis, also called period, was the only time variable considered in the initial descriptive analysis of the incidence rates and trends for each of the three neoplasms considered. However, a methodology that only considers one single time variable will probably fall short on the conclusions that could be drawn from the data under study. In cancer, apart from the variable period, the age at diagnosis and the birth cohort are also temporal variables and may provide an additional contribution to the characterization of the incidence. The relevance assumed by these temporal variables justified its inclusion in a class of models called Age-Period-Cohort models (APC). This class of models was used for the analysis of the incidence rates of the three cancers under study. APC models allow to model nonlinearity and/or sudden changes in linear relationships of rate trends. Two approaches of APC models were considered: the classical and the one using smoothing functions. The models were stratified by gender and, when justified, further studies explored other sub-models where only one or two temporal variables were considered. After the analysis of the incidence rates, a subsequent goal is related to their projections in future periods. Although the effect of structural changes in the population, of which Portugal is not oblivious, may substantially change the expected number of future cancer cases, the results of these projections could help planning health policies with the proper allocation of resources, allowing for the evaluation of scenarios and interventions that aim to reduce the impact of cancer in a population. Worth noting that cancer incidence worldwide obtained from demographic projections point out to an increase of 25% of cancer cases in the next two decades. The lack of projections of incidence rates of the three cancers under study in the area covered by ROR-Sul, led us to use a variety of forecasting models that differ in the nature and structure. For example, linearity or nonlinearity in their coefficients and the trend of the incidence rates in historical data series (e.g. increasing, decreasing or stable).The models followed two approaches: (i) linear models regarding time and (ii) extrapolation of temporal effects identified by the APC models for future periods. The study provide incidence rates projections and the numbers of newly diagnosed cases for the year, 2007 to 2010, taking into account gender, age and the type of cancer. In addition, an estimate of the economic impact of these neoplasms is presented for the projection period considered. This research also try to address a relevant and common clinical question in these type of studies, regarding the contribution of the type of cancer to the patient survival. In such studies, the primary cause of death is commonly used to estimate the mortality specifically due to the cancer. However, there are many situations in which the cause of death is unknown, or, even if this information is available through the death certificates, it is not easy to distinguish the cases where the primary cause of death is the cancer. With this in mind, the relative survival is an alternative measure that does not need the knowledge of the specific cause of death to be calculated. This estimate will represent the survival probability in the hypothetical scenario of a certain cancer be the only cause of death. For the patients with unknown cause of death that were diagnosed with cancer in the ROR-Sul, the relative survival was calculated for each of the cancers under study, for a follow-up period of 5 years, considering gender, age and each one of the regions that are part the registry. A period analysis was undertaken, considering both the conventional and the model approaches. In final part of this study, we analyzed the influence of space-time variability in the incidence rates. The long latency period of oncologic diseases, the difficulty in identifying subtle changes in the rates behavior, populations of reduced size and low risk are some of the elements that can be a challenge in the analysis of temporal variations in rates, that, in some cases, can reflect simple random fluctuations. The effect of the temporal component measured by the APC models gives an incomplete picture of the cancer incidence. The etiology of this disease, when known, is frequently associated to risk factors such as socioeconomic conditions, eating habits and lifestyle, occupation, geographic location and genetic component. The "contribution"of such risk factors is sometimes decisive in the evolution of the disease and should not be ignored. Therefore, there was the need to consider an additional approach in this study, one of spatial nature, addressing the fact that changes in incidence rates observed in the ROR-Sul area, could be explained either by temporal and geographical variability or by unequal socio-economic or lifestyle factors. Thus, Bayesian hierarchical space-time models were used with the purpose of identifying space-time trends in incidence rates together with the the analysis of the effect of the risk factors considered in the study. The results obtained and the implementation of all these methodologies are considered to be an added value to the knowledge of these neoplasms in Portugal.

Gastric and colorectal cancer mortality in an urban and industrialized area of Brazil

PURPOSE: To study the gastric and colorectal cancer mortalities and their relation to the urban-industrialization in Baixada Santista, located in the southeastern region of Brazil. METHODS: Selected from the registries of the State System of Data Analysis Foundation (SEADE) were 1105 deaths due to gastric cancer (ICD 153--154) and 690 due to colorectal cancer (ICD 151) that occurred from 1980 to 1993 in males, above 10 years of age, residing in Baixada Santista. For each of these types of cancer, the standardized mortality rates, age-adjusted by world population in the 1960s, for 4 industrialized and 4 non-industrialized urban communities in that region were calculated. The ratios among those rates were calculated in order to compare the mortality in the periods 1980--93, 1980--1986, and 1987--1993. RESULTS: Standardized mortality rates for colorectal cancer were significantly higher in industrialized area, with ratios of 1.6 [95% CI 1.22 -- 2.29], 1.6 [95% CI 1.2 -- 2.0], and 1.6 [95% CI 1.3 -- 2.0] in the periods 1980--86, 1987--1993 and 1980--93, respectively. Gastric cancer did not show any statistical difference between the industrialized and non-industrialized areas, but there was a significant decrease in BS from the period 1980--1986 to 1987--1993. CONCLUSIONS: The significant elevation of colorectal cancer mortality in the industrialized area could be related to exposure to numerous carcinogens such as aromatic hydrocarbon, organic-chloride, metals, and industrial-port dust present in the region. Alternatively, the non-significant difference in gastric cancer between industrialized and non-industrialized areas and significant decrease in the last few years could be predominately reflecting the advances in the quality of life in urban areas. These results require further case-control studies that could help with the analysis of the associations among cancer and environmental factors (occupational, urban-industrial, habit, and life condition) and genetic susceptibility.

Arquivo Histórico de Chaves

Relatório de estágio de mestrado em História

I Brazilian Registry of Heart Failure - Clinical Aspects, Care Quality and Hospitalization Outcomes

Background:Heart failure (HF) is one of the leading causes of hospitalization in adults in Brazil. However, most of the available data is limited to unicenter registries. The BREATHE registry is the first to include a large sample of hospitalized patients with decompensated HF from different regions in Brazil.Objective:Describe the clinical characteristics, treatment and prognosis of hospitalized patients admitted with acute HF.Methods:Observational registry study with longitudinal follow-up. The eligibility criteria included patients older than 18 years with a definitive diagnosis of HF, admitted to public or private hospitals. Assessed outcomes included the causes of decompensation, use of medications, care quality indicators, hemodynamic profile and intrahospital events.Results:A total of 1,263 patients (64±16 years, 60% women) were included from 51 centers from different regions in Brazil. The most common comorbidities were hypertension (70.8%), dyslipidemia (36.7%) and diabetes (34%). Around 40% of the patients had normal left ventricular systolic function and most were admitted with a wet-warm clinical-hemodynamic profile. Vasodilators and intravenous inotropes were used in less than 15% of the studied cohort. Care quality indicators based on hospital discharge recommendations were reached in less than 65% of the patients. Intrahospital mortality affected 12.6% of all patients included.Conclusion:The BREATHE study demonstrated the high intrahospital mortality of patients admitted with acute HF in Brazil, in addition to the low rate of prescription of drugs based on evidence.

Clinical Differences between Subtypes of Atrial Fibrillation and Flutter: Cross-Sectional Registry of 407 Patients

Introduction:Atrial fibrillation and atrial flutter account for one third of hospitalizations due to arrhythmias, determining great social and economic impacts. In Brazil, data on hospital care of these patients is scarce.Objective:To investigate the arrhythmia subtype of atrial fibrillation and flutter patients in the emergency setting and compare the clinical profile, thromboembolic risk and anticoagulants use.Methods:Cross-sectional retrospective study, with data collection from medical records of every patient treated for atrial fibrillation and flutter in the emergency department of Instituto de Cardiologia do Rio Grande do Sul during the first trimester of 2012.Results:We included 407 patients (356 had atrial fibrillation and 51 had flutter). Patients with paroxysmal atrial fibrillation were in average 5 years younger than those with persistent atrial fibrillation. Compared to paroxysmal atrial fibrillation patients, those with persistent atrial fibrillation and flutter had larger atrial diameter (48.6 ± 7.2 vs. 47.2 ± 6.2 vs. 42.3 ± 6.4; p < 0.01) and lower left ventricular ejection fraction (66.8 ± 11 vs. 53.9 ± 17 vs. 57.4 ± 16; p < 0.01). The prevalence of stroke and heart failure was higher in persistent atrial fibrillation and flutter patients. Those with paroxysmal atrial fibrillation and flutter had higher prevalence of CHADS2 score of zero when compared to those with persistent atrial fibrillation (27.8% vs. 18% vs. 4.9%; p < 0.01). The prevalence of anticoagulation in patients with CHA2DS2-Vasc ≤ 2 was 40%.Conclusions:The population in our registry was similar in its comorbidities and demographic profile to those of North American and European registries. Despite the high thromboembolic risk, the use of anticoagulants was low, revealing difficulties for incorporating guideline recommendations. Public health strategies should be adopted in order to improve these rates.