The Great Moderation and the Relationship between Output Growth and Its Volatility

This study examines the effect of the Great Moderation on the relationship between U.S. output growth and its volatility over the period 1947 to 2006. First, we consider the possible effects of structural change in the volatility process. In so doing, we employ GARCH-M and ARCH-M specifications of the process describing output growth rate and its volatility with and without a one-time structural break in volatility. Second, our data analyses and empirical results suggest no significant relationship between the output growth rate and its volatility, favoring the traditional wisdom of dichotomy in macroeconomics. Moreover, the evidence shows that the time-varying variance falls sharply or even disappears once we incorporate a one-time structural break in the unconditional variance of output starting 1982 or 1984. That is, the integrated GARCH effect proves spurious. Finally, a joint test of a trend change and a one-time shift in the volatility process finds that the one-time shift dominates.

Is the Great Moderation Ending? UK and US Evidence

The Great Moderation, the significant decline in the variability of economic activity, provides a most remarkable feature of the macroeconomic landscape in the last twenty years. A number of papers document the beginning of the Great Moderation in the US and the UK. In this paper, we use the Markov regime-switching models of Hamilton (1989) and Hamilton and Susmel (1994) to document the end of the Great Moderation. The Great Moderation in the US and the UK begin at different point in time. The explanations for the Great Moderation fall into generally three different categories -- good monetary policy, improved inventory management, or good luck. Summers (2005) argues that a combination of good monetary policy and better inventory management led to the Great Moderation. The end of the Great Moderation, however, occurs at approximately the same time in both the US and the UK. It seems unlikely that good monetary policy would turn into bad policy or that better inventory management would turn into worse management. Rather, the likely explanation comes from bad luck. Two likely culprits exist . energy-price and housing-price shocks.

The Great Moderation Flattens Fat Tails: Disappearing Leptokurtosis

Recently, Fagiolo et al. (2008) find fat tails of economic growth rates after adjusting outliers, autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity. This paper employs US quarterly real output growth, showing that this finding of fat tails may reflect the Great Moderation. That is, leptokurtosis disappears after GARCH adjustment once we incorporate the break in the variance equation.

Considering Social Factors and Potential Moderation Effects in Children’s Health Research

In light of dramatic changes in American family demography in recent decades, there is a growing recognition that family structure is one of a host of important social factors contributing to children’s health and well-being. The article by Augustine and Kimbro contributes to a growing body of research linking children’s family structure and health outcomes, focusing specifically on the association between family living arrangements and children’s risk of obesity. Their analyses are especially helpful in suggesting that family scholars should pay more attention to potential heterogeneity in relationships between family structure and children’s outcomes.

Moisture determination in corn by neutron moderation : final report /

"ORO-485 (RTI-2513)"--Cover.

Moderation. A Tale.

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Employee absence and organizational commitment:moderation effects of age

This study examined the relations of organizational commitment and demographic factors with objectively measured absence frequency data of 106 staff at a UK school, collected over a 1-year period. We found significant associations of commitment and absenteeism, with high affective and normative commitment, and low continuance commitment being associated with lower levels of absence. Age moderated two of these associations, with low normative commitment and high continuance commitment predicting absence most strongly for older workers. Our findings help practitioners and researchers to understand how commitment may interact with other factors to predict absence. Interaction effects in our data showed that absence frequencies tended to be highest for older workers who felt a lower sense of obligation to their organization, or a lack of alternatives to their present employment. © 2012 Hogrefe Publishing.

Nothing succeeds like moderation:a social self-regulation perspective on cultural dissimilarity and individual performance.

Addressing inconsistencies in relational demography research, we examine the relationship between cultural dissimilarity and individual performance through the lens of social self-regulation theory, which extends the social identity perspective in relational demography with the analysis of social self-regulation. We propose that social self-regulation in culturally diverse teams manifests itself as performance monitoring (i.e., individuals' actions to meet team performance standards and peer expectations). Contingent on the status associated with individuals' cultural background, performance monitoring is proposed to have a curvilinear relationship with individual performance and to mediate between cultural dissimilarity and performance. Multilevel moderated mediation analyses of time-lagged data from 316 members of 69 teams confirmed these hypotheses. Cultural dissimilarity had a negative relationship with performance monitoring for high cultural-status members, and a positive relationship for low cultural-status members. Performance monitoring had a curvilinear relationship with individual performance that became decreasingly positive. Cultural dissimilarity thus was increasingly negatively associated with performance for high culturalstatus members, and decreasingly positively for low cultural-status members. These findings suggest that cultural dissimilarity to the team is not unconditionally negative for the individual but, in moderation, may in fact have positive motivational effects.

Transformational leadership, innovative behavior and task performance:test of mediation and moderation processes

We use the self-concept based theory of leadership and social exchange theory to hypothesize processes linking transformational leadership to follower performance outcomes. Specifically, we hypothesize that (a) transformational leadership relates to followers' work engagement both directly and indirectly through their psychological states, (b) work engagement relates to innovative behavior, (c) innovative behavior relates to task performance, and (d) the work engagement–innovative behavior relationship is moderated by leader–member exchange. Results from a test of these relationships in a sample of employees of a large telecommunication company in China largely support our hypothesized model.