Forecasting the maximum compensation offer in the automobile BI claims negotiation process

Most motor bodily injury (BI) claims are settled by negotiation, with fewer than 5% of cases going to court. A well-defined negotiation strategy is thus very useful for insurance companies. In this paper we assume that the monetary compensation awarded in court is the upper amount to be offered by the insurer in the negotiation process. Using a real database, a log-linear model is implemented to estimate the maximal offer. Non-spherical disturbances are detected. Correlation occurs when various claims are settled in the same judicial verdict. Group wise heteroscedasticity is due to the influence of the forensic valuation on the final compensation amount. An alternative approximation based on generalized inference theory is applied to estimate confidence intervals on variance components, since classical interval estimates may be unreliable for datasets with unbalanced structures.

Desviaciones al modelo logarítmico-lineal en la solubilidad de ibuprofén y naproxén en mezclas cosolventes propilenoglicol-agua

The deviations observed in the solubility of ibuprofen (IBP) and naproxen (NAP) in propylene glycol (PG) + water (W) cosolvent mixtures with respect to the logarithmic-linear model proposed by Yalkowsky have been analyzed at 25.00 ± 0.05 ºC. Negative deviations were obtained in all cosolvent compositions for both drugs; they were greater for IBP. Another treatment, based on Gibbs free energy relationships, was also employed showing an apparent hydrophobicity chameleonic effect, because at low PG proportions NAP is more hydrophobic, whereas at high PG proportions IBP is more hydrophobic. The results are discussed in terms of solute-solvent and solvent-solvent interactions.

Evolución el añublo del arroz en dos condiciones de fertilidad nitrogenada

Con el objetivo de evaluar la evolución de la infección producida por Pyricularia oryzae (cooke) Sacc, en la hoja y en la panícula, fueron seleccionados tres genotipos de arroz (Oryza sativa). Los genotipos: El Paso 144 (EP), Don Ignacio (DI) y H 316-1-2-1-1 (H 316) fueron sembrados en condiciones de campo, en la Estación Experimental La Plata, y en dos condiciones de disponibilidad de nitrógeno (testigo o sin nitrógeno y 150 kg N ha-1 en forma de urea). El hongo fue inoculado en la tercera hoja, con una mezcla de razas, a una concentración de 1,2 x 10(5) fragmentos de hifa/ml, incubándose durante 48 horas en cámara húmeda. Fueron evaluados la severidad y tipo de mancha en la hoja y la severidad e incidencia en la panícula. Se realizó el ANOVA, y las diferencias estadísticas fueron analizadas a través del test Tukey (p<0,05). Fueron aplicados modelos Log-lineares para datos no paramétricos. No se observó interacción entre genotipo y fertilización, en las hojas, en los estadios de primer perfilo (M) y diferenciación (D). La fertilización aumentó la severidad en las hojas. El coeficiente de correlación entre el tipo de mancha y el porcentaje de severidad en la hoja fue elevado. Fue observada interacción entre genotipo y fertilización en los valores de severidad en la panícula, los mismos que disminuyeron con la fertilización en los genotipos EP y DI, pero no presentaron diferencias en H 316.

Determinantes diretos do parto prematuro eletivo e os resultados neonatais

OBJETIVO: caracterizar gestantes submetidas ao parto prematuro eletivo e relacionar diagnósticos clínicos e obstétricos com os resultados neonatais. MÉTODO: foram coletados prospectivamente os dados de 100 gestantes internadas na enfermaria da Clínica Obstétrica e os seus recém-nascidos. Os critérios de inclusão foram: gestação única; idade gestacional confirmada por ultra-sonografia precoce; ausência de trabalho de parto; presença de condição materna e/ou fetal que motivasse a indicação do parto prematuro. Para relacionar a causa do parto prematuro eletivo com os resultados neonatais, classificamos as causas diretas do parto em grupos. Comparamos os grupos, considerando a idade gestacional. Para avaliar os resultados neonatais, considerou-se: acidose, Apgar no 1º e no 5º minuto (menor que 7), hemorragia intracraniana, mortalidade neonatal, sepse neonatal e síndrome do desconforto respiratório. A análise estatística utilizada para a correlação entre as causas do parto e a idade gestacional aos resultados neonatais foi realizada por modelos log-lineares. RESULTADOS: uma das pacientes foi excluída do estudo por malformação fetal. As causas diretas mais comuns do parto foram: sofrimento fetal anteparto (49,5%), síndromes hipertensivas (21,2%), restrição do crescimento fetal (13,1%) e outras causas (16,2%). Entre as complicações neonatais, destacaram-se: asfixia (33,3%), acidose (30,4%), síndrome do desconforto respiratório (26,3%), sepse (22,2%), hemorragia intracraniana (21,2%) e morte neonatal (13,1%). A análise por modelos log-lineares evidenciou associação entre as causas do parto e a incidência de acidose e síndrome do desconforto respiratório e a idade gestacional associou-se à síndrome do desconforto respiratório, Apgar de 1º minuto <7, sepse, hemorragia intracraniana e morte neonatal. CONCLUSÕES: a causa do parto influencia os resultados neonatais. Entretanto, as complicações mais graves dependeram diretamente da idade gestacional no parto. Desta maneira, o diagnóstico anteparto deve ser criteriosamente avaliado pelo obstetra, para que a decisão de se interromper a gestação possa ser feita em momento adequado, evitando-se assim as complicações neonatais.

Whole transcriptome organisation in the dehydrated supraoptic nucleus

The supraoptic nucleus (SON) is part of the central osmotic circuitry that synthesises the hormone vasopressin (Avp) and transports it to terminals in the posterior lobe of the pituitary. Following osmotic stress such as dehydration, this tissue undergoes morphological, electrical and transcriptional changes to facilitate the appropriate regulation and release of Avp into the circulation where it conserves water at the level of the kidney. Here, the organisation of the whole transcriptome following dehydration is modelled to fit Zipf's law, a natural power law that holds true for all natural languages, that states if the frequency of word usage is plotted against its rank, then the log linear regression of this is -1. We have applied this model to our previously published euhydrated and dehydrated SON data to observe this trend and how it changes following dehydration. In accordance with other studies, our whole transcriptome data fit well with this model in the euhydrated SON microarrays, but interestingly, fit better in the dehydrated arrays. This trend was observed in a subset of differentially regulated genes and also following network reconstruction using a third-party database that mines public data. We make use of language as a metaphor that helps us philosophise about the role of the whole transcriptome in providing a suitable environment for the delivery of Avp following a survival threat like dehydration.

A sequential analysis of therapist scaffolding and child concept formation in narrative therapy

Narrative therapy is a postmodern therapy that takes the position that people create self-narratives to make sense of their experiences. To date, narrative therapy has compiled virtually no quantitative and very little qualitative research, leaving gaps in almost all areas of process and outcome. White (2006a), one of the therapy's founders, has recently utilized Vygotsky's (1934/1987) theories of the zone of proximal development (ZPD) and concept formation to describe the process of change in narrative therapy with children. In collaboration with the child client, the narrative therapist formalizes therapeutic concepts and submits them to increasing levels of generalization to create a ZPD. This study sought to determine whether the child's development proceeds through the stages of concept formation over the course of a session, and whether therapists' utterances scaffold this movement. A sequential analysis was used due to its unique ability to measure dynamic processes in social interactions. Stages of concept formation and scaffolding were coded over time. A hierarchical log-linear analysis was performed on the sequential data to develop a model of therapist scaffolding and child concept development. This was intended to determine what patterns occur and whether the stated intent of narrative therapy matches its actual process. In accordance with narrative therapy theory, the log-linear analysis produced a final model with interactions between therapist and child utterances, and between both therapist and child utterances and time. Specifically, the child and youth participants in therapy tended to respond to therapist scaffolding at the corresponding level of concept formation. Both children and youth and therapists also tended to move away from earlier and toward later stages of White's scaffolding conversations map as the therapy session advanced. These findings provide support for White's contention that narrative therapists promote child development by scaffolding child concept formation in therapy.

Altruism, Intergenerational Transfers of Time and Bequests

This paper uses a standard two-period overlapping generation model to examine the behavior of an economy where both intergenerational transfers of time and bequests are available. While bequests have been examined extensively, time transfers have received little or no attention in the literature. Assuming a log-linear utility function and a Cobb-Douglas production function, we derive an explicit solution for the dynamics and show that altruistic intergenerational time transfers can take place in presence of a binding non-negativity constraint on bequests. We also show that with either type of transfers capital is an increasing function of the intergenerational degree of altruism. However, while with time transfers the labor supply of the young increases with the degree of altruism, with bequests it may decrease

Les coûts des soins de santé chez les personnes âgées de 65 ans et plus avec incapacités au Québec

La question des coûts des soins de santé gagne en intérêt dans le contexte du vieillissement de la population. On sait que les personnes en moins bonne santé, bien que vivant moins longtemps, sont associées à des coûts plus élevés. On s'intéresse aux facteurs associés à des coûts publics des soins de santé plus élevés au niveau individuel, chez les Québécois vivant en ménage privé âgés de 65 ans et plus, présentant au moins un type d’incapacité. À l’aide de modèles de régression, la variation des coûts pour la consultation de professionnels de la santé et la prise de médicaments a été analysée en fonction du nombre d’incapacités ainsi que de la nature de celles-ci. Les informations sur l’état de santé et la situation socio-démographique proviennent de l’Enquête sur les limitations d’activités (EQLA) de 1998, celles sur les coûts du Fichier d’inscription des personnes assurées (FIPA) de la Régie de l’Assurance maladie du Québec (RAMQ), pour la même année. Les résultats montrent que les deux types de coûts considérés augmentent en fonction du nombre d’incapacités. D’autre part, des coûts plus élevés ont été trouvés chez les personnes présentant une incapacité liée à l’agilité concernant la consultation de professionnels de la santé, alors que, concernant la prise de médicaments, le même constat s’applique aux personnes avec une incapacité liée à la mobilité. Les deux types de coûts considérés présentent un niveau plus élevé chez les personnes présentant une incapacité liée au psychisme, en particulier lorsque l’on considère la prise de médicaments. Ces observations soulignent l’intérêt de considérer la nature du problème de santé lorsque l’on étudie les déterminants individuels du niveau des coûts des soins de santé.

Compositional analysis of bivariate discrete probabilities

A joint distribution of two discrete random variables with finite support can be displayed as a two way table of probabilities adding to one. Assume that this table has n rows and m columns and all probabilities are non-null. This kind of table can be seen as an element in the simplex of n · m parts. In this context, the marginals are identified as compositional amalgams, conditionals (rows or columns) as subcompositions. Also, simplicial perturbation appears as Bayes theorem. However, the Euclidean elements of the Aitchison geometry of the simplex can also be translated into the table of probabilities: subspaces, orthogonal projections, distances. Two important questions are addressed: a) given a table of probabilities, which is the nearest independent table to the initial one? b) which is the largest orthogonal projection of a row onto a column? or, equivalently, which is the information in a row explained by a column, thus explaining the interaction? To answer these questions three orthogonal decompositions are presented: (1) by columns and a row-wise geometric marginal, (2) by rows and a columnwise geometric marginal, (3) by independent two-way tables and fully dependent tables representing row-column interaction. An important result is that the nearest independent table is the product of the two (row and column)-wise geometric marginal tables. A corollary is that, in an independent table, the geometric marginals conform with the traditional (arithmetic) marginals. These decompositions can be compared with standard log-linear models. Key words: balance, compositional data, simplex, Aitchison geometry, composition, orthonormal basis, arithmetic and geometric marginals, amalgam, dependence measure, contingency table

Estudio comparativo sobre la influencia del adulto en la actividad cognitiva del niño trisómico-niño normal entre 11 meses a 18 meses.

Conocer las bases y organización de la estructura intelectual defectuosa, comparativamente con la normal. Conocer cúal es la incidencia del adulto en dicha construcción, acentuando su papel en la elaboración de la deficiencia. 3 bebés normales observados desde los 8 meses hasta los 18 meses y 3 bebés con síndrome de Down, observados desde la edad madurativa equivalente a los 11 meses. Plantea un marco teórico basado en un punto de vista constructivista e interaccionista centrado en el eje inteligencia-acción-interacción. El marco explicativo respecto al desarrollo defectuoso es el de la teoría de la deficiencia, y el del desarrollo normal se basa en la teoría piagetiana. Plantea dos hipótesis de trabajo. Elige una muestra compuesta por seis casos de manera no aleatoria. Obtiene los datos a partir de la observación sistematizada y longitudinal de los dos grupos de la muestra (normales y trisómicos). Registra su actividad espontánea resultante de jugar con material cerrado, durante 10 minutos y en presencia de dos adultos. Realiza un análisis de datos cualitativo y cuantitativo a tres niveles : intra-sujeto, intra-grupo e inter-grupo. Observación sistemática (funcional, natural, longitudinal, comparativa). Material de juego de tipo no figurativo, favorecedor de actividades lógicas. Análisis cualitativo: codificación y categorización del material y acciones. Análisis cuantitativo: coeficiente de consistencia intra-observador de Knippendorf. Análisis log-linear mediante el paquete estadístico BMDP/4F. Concordancias entre los dos grupos: necesidad del feed-back acción niño-modelo, adulto- respuesta niño. Necesidad de la adecuación del modelo adulto a la actividad del niño. Necesidad de la intersubjetividad adulto-niño. Diferencias entre grupos respecto a: la generación del proyecto de acción y la significación conferida así como a la intersubjetividad, mostrando mayor dificultad el grupo trisómico. La regulación mutua, necesaria pero difícilmente observado en el grupo de trisómicos. La intervención del adulto en la actividad cognitiva del niño es positiva o negativa en función de la existencia o no de un proyecto de acción infantil, significación compartida, intersubjetividad, adecuación mutua adulto-niño y el feed-back entre ellos.

Aplicación de las medidas de concordancia al análisis factorial de correspondencias.

Resumen basado en el del autor

Influencia de las variables contextuales en el rendimiento escolar de octavo de EGB.

Estudiar la influencia de las variables contextuales en el rendimiento académico y, más especificamente, aquellas que ejercen en los contextos académicos, social, geográfico, etc. sobre el rendimiento escolar. 5380 alumnos de octavo de EGB. Pruebas psicopedagógicas y cuestionarios. Tablas de contingencia muldimensional, análisis log linear, análisis factorial, porcentajes y análisis de significación estadística. Esta investigación parte de la formulación de cuatro hipótesis referidas al grado de asociación existente entre variables que constituyen un grupo de variables dependientes (variables de rendimiento) y el grupo de las independientes (variables contextuales), así como lo que se establece entre ellas en el ciclo inicial, con el fin de cubrir la carencia de instrumentos de análisis a la vez que buscar un diseño que integre todas las dimensiones textuales como un discurso homogéneo y secuenciado. Una vez elaborado el instrumento se realiza una aplicación en una muestra de textos para ponerlo a prueba y demostrar en la práctica su funcionamiento y procedimiento de aplicación. Los datos fueron recogidos aplicando pruebas psicopedagógicas aplicadas por el CIDE. La media del rendimiento escolar viene determinada por las calificaciones emitidas por el profesor y una nota global, media de todas ellas, junto a los resultados de las pruebas objetivas. Como conclusión se establece las siguientes relaciones entre variables: a) las variables contextuales establecen relaciones significativas con las variables de rendimiento estudiadas, y estas relaciones son más fijas y permanentes, sino que están determinadas por variables moduladoras medias del rendimiento; b) las variables independientes que ejercen una mayor incidencia en las dependientes son aquellas que aluden a aspectos estructurales (estratificación social), institucionales (tipo de centro) y académicas (repetición del curso y asistencia preescolar); c) los resultados obtenidos en las calificaciones parecen establecer relaciones menos sensibles al influjo de las variables contextuales que a las pruebas objetivas. Fecha finalización tomada del Código del Documento.

Las nuevas tecnologías y la investigación educativa : el análisis de datos de variables categoriales.

Monográfico con el título: 'Aportaciones de las nuevas tecnologías a la investigación educativa'. Resumen basado en el de la publicación

Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones

The clustering in time (seriality) of extratropical cyclones is responsible for large cumulative insured losses in western Europe, though surprisingly little scientific attention has been given to this important property. This study investigates and quantifies the seriality of extratropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere using a point-process approach. A possible mechanism for serial clustering is the time-varying effect of the large-scale flow on individual cyclone tracks. Another mechanism is the generation by one parent cyclone of one or more offspring through secondary cyclogenesis. A long cyclone-track database was constructed for extended October March winters from 1950 to 2003 using 6-h analyses of 850-mb relative vorticity derived from the NCEP NCAR reanalysis. A dispersion statistic based on the varianceto- mean ratio of monthly cyclone counts was used as a measure of clustering. It reveals extensive regions of statistically significant clustering in the European exit region of the North Atlantic storm track and over the central North Pacific. Monthly cyclone counts were regressed on time-varying teleconnection indices with a log-linear Poisson model. Five independent teleconnection patterns were found to be significant factors over Europe: the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the east Atlantic pattern, the Scandinavian pattern, the east Atlantic western Russian pattern, and the polar Eurasian pattern. The NAO alone is not sufficient for explaining the variability of cyclone counts in the North Atlantic region and western Europe. Rate dependence on time-varying teleconnection indices accounts for the variability in monthly cyclone counts, and a cluster process did not need to be invoked.

New mathematical modeling approach for predicting microbial inactivation by high hydrostatic pressure

A new primary model based on a thermodynamically consistent first-order kinetic approach was constructed to describe non-log-linear inactivation kinetics of pressure-treated bacteria. The model assumes a first-order process in which the specific inactivation rate changes inversely with the square root of time. The model gave reasonable fits to experimental data over six to seven orders of magnitude. It was also tested on 138 published data sets and provided good fits in about 70% of cases in which the shape of the curve followed the typical convex upward form. In the remainder of published examples, curves contained additional shoulder regions or extended tail regions. Curves with shoulders could be accommodated by including an additional time delay parameter and curves with tails shoulders could be accommodated by omitting points in the tail beyond the point at which survival levels remained more or less constant. The model parameters varied regularly with pressure, which may reflect a genuine mechanistic basis for the model. This property also allowed the calculation of (a) parameters analogous to the decimal reduction time D and z, the temperature increase needed to change the D value by a factor of 10, in thermal processing, and hence the processing conditions needed to attain a desired level of inactivation; and (b) the apparent thermodynamic volumes of activation associated with the lethal events. The hypothesis that inactivation rates changed as a function of the square root of time would be consistent with a diffusion-limited process.