Generation of the Cape Ghir upwelling filament: a numerical study

[EN] Filaments are narrow, shallow structures of cool water originating from the coast. They are typical features of the four main eastern boundary upwelling systems (EBUS). In spite of their significant biological and chemical roles, through the offshore exportation of nutrient-rich waters, the physical processes that generate them are still not completely understood. This paper is a process-oriented study of filament generation mechanisms. Our goal is twofold: firstly, to obtain a numerical solution able to well represent the characteristics of the filament off Cape Ghir (30°38'N, northwestern Africa) in the Canary EBUS and secondly, to explain its formation by a simple mechanism based on the balance of potential vorticity. The first goal is achieved by the use of the ROMS model (Regional Ocean Modeling System) in embedded domains around Cape Ghir, with a horizontal resolution going up to 1.5 km for the finest domain. The latter gets its initial and boundary conditions from a parent solution and is forced by climatological, high-resolution atmospheric fields. The modeled filaments display spatial, temporal and physical characteristics in agreement with the available in situ and satellite observations. This model solution is used as a reference to compare the results with a set of process-oriented experiments. These experiments allow us to reach the second objective. Their respective solution serves to highlight the contribution of various processes in the filament generation. Since the study is focused on general processes present under climatological forcing conditions, inter-annual forcing is not necessary. The underlying idea for the filament generation is the balance of potential vorticity in the Canary EBUS: the upwelling jet is characterized by negative relative vorticity and flows southward along a narrow band of uniform potential vorticity. In the vicinity of the cape, an injection of relative vorticity induced by the wind breaks the existing vorticity balance. The upwelling jet is prevented from continuing its way southward and has to turn offshore to follow lines of equal potential vorticity. The model results highlight the essential role of wind, associated with the particular topography (coastline and bottom) around the cape. The mechanism presented here is general and thus can be applied to other EBUS.

Towards Rapid Environmental Assessment and Coastal Forecasting in the Northern Adriatic Sea

A new Coastal Rapid Environmental Assessment (CREA) strategy has been developed and successfully applied to the Northern Adriatic Sea. CREA strategy exploits the recent advent of operational oceanography to establish a CREA system based on an operational regional forecasting system and coastal monitoring networks of opportunity. The methodology wishes to initialize a coastal high resolution model, nested within the regional forecasting system, blending the large scale parent model fields with the available coastal observations to generate the requisite field estimates. CREA modeling system consists of a high resolution, O(800m), Adriatic SHELF model (ASHELF) implemented into the Northern Adriatic basin and nested within the Adriatic Forecasting System (AFS) (Oddo et al. 2006). The observational system is composed by the coastal networks established in the framework of ADRICOSM (ADRiatic sea integrated COastal areaS and river basin Managment system) Pilot Project. An assimilation technique exerts a correction of the initial field provided by AFS on the basis of the available observations. The blending of the two data sets has been carried out through a multi-scale optimal interpolation technique developed by Mariano and Brown (1992). Two CREA weekly exercises have been conducted: the first, at the beginning of May (spring experiment); the second in middle August (summer experiment). The weeks have been chosen looking at the availability of all coastal observations in the initialization day and one week later to validate model results, verifying our predictive skills. ASHELF spin up time has been investigated too, through a dedicated experiment, in order to obtain the maximum forecast accuracy within a minimum time. Energetic evaluations show that for the Northern Adriatic Sea and for the forcing applied, a spin-up period of one week allows ASHELF to generate new circulation features enabled by the increased resolution and its total kinetic energy to establish a new dynamical balance. CREA results, evaluated by mean of standard statistics between ASHELF and coastal CTDs, show improvement deriving from the initialization technique and a good model performance in the coastal areas of the Northern Adriatic basin, characterized by a shallow and wide continental shelf subject to substantial freshwater influence from rivers. Results demonstrate the feasibility of our CREA strategy to support coastal zone management and wish an additional establishment of operational coastal monitoring activities to advance it.

The stratigraphic record of the quaternary sea level fluctuations and the impact of the post-glacial sea level rise (Termination I) in the Adriatic basin (Mediterranean sea)

The modern stratigraphy of clastic continental margins is the result of the interaction between several geological processes acting on different time scales, among which sea level oscillations, sediment supply fluctuations and local tectonics are the main mechanisms. During the past three years my PhD was focused on understanding the impact of each of these process in the deposition of the central and northern Adriatic sedimentary successions, with the aim of reconstructing and quantifying the Late Quaternary eustatic fluctuations. In the last few decades, several Authors tried to quantify past eustatic fluctuations through the analysis of direct sea level indicators, among which drowned barrier-island deposits or coral reefs, or indirect methods, such as Oxygen isotope ratios (δ18O) or modeling simulations. Sea level curves, obtained from direct sea level indicators, record a composite signal, formed by the contribution of the global eustatic change and regional factors, as tectonic processes or glacial-isostatic rebound effects: the eustatic signal has to be obtained by removing the contribution of these other mechanisms. To obtain the most realistic sea level reconstructions it is important to quantify the tectonic regime of the central Adriatic margin. This result has been achieved integrating a numerical approach with the analysis of high-resolution seismic profiles. In detail, the subsidence trend obtained from the geohistory analysis and the backstripping of the borehole PRAD1.2 (the borehole PRAD1.2 is a 71 m continuous borehole drilled in -185 m of water depth, south of the Mid Adriatic Deep - MAD - during the European Project PROMESS 1, Profile Across Mediterranean Sedimentary Systems, Part 1), has been confirmed by the analysis of lowstand paleoshorelines and by benthic foraminifera associations investigated through the borehole. This work showed an evolution from inner-shelf environment, during Marine Isotopic Stage (MIS) 10, to upper-slope conditions, during MIS 2. Once the tectonic regime of the central Adriatic margin has been constrained, it is possible to investigate the impact of sea level and sediment supply fluctuations on the deposition of the Late Pleistocene-Holocene transgressive deposits. The Adriatic transgressive record (TST - Transgressive Systems Tract) is formed by three correlative sedimentary bodies, deposited in less then 14 kyr since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM); in particular: along the central Adriatic shelf and in the adjacent slope basin the TST is formed by marine units, while along the northern Adriatic shelf the TST is represented by costal deposits in a backstepping configuration. The central Adriatic margin, characterized by a thick transgressive sedimentary succession, is the ideal site to investigate the impact of late Pleistocene climatic and eustatic fluctuations, among which Meltwater Pulses 1A and 1B and the Younger Dryas cold event. The central Adriatic TST is formed by a tripartite deposit bounded by two regional unconformities. In particular, the middle TST unit includes two prograding wedges, deposited in the interval between the two Meltwater Pulse events, as highlighted by several 14C age estimates, and likely recorded the Younger Dryas cold interval. Modeling simulations, obtained with the two coupled models HydroTrend 3.0 and 2D-Sedflux 1.0C (developed by the Community Surface Dynamics Modeling System - CSDMS), integrated by the analysis of high resolution seismic profiles and core samples, indicate that: 1 - the prograding middle TST unit, deposited during the Younger Dryas, was formed as a consequence of an increase in sediment flux, likely connected to a decline in vegetation cover in the catchment area due to the establishment of sub glacial arid conditions; 2 - the two-stage prograding geometry was the consequence of a sea level still-stand (or possibly a fall) during the Younger Dryas event. The northern Adriatic margin, characterized by a broad and gentle shelf (350 km wide with a low angle plunge of 0.02° to the SE), is the ideal site to quantify the timing of each steps of the post LGM sea level rise. The modern shelf is characterized by sandy deposits of barrier-island systems in a backstepping configuration, showing younger ages at progressively shallower depths, which recorded the step-wise nature of the last sea level rise. The age-depth model, obtained by dated samples of basal peat layers, is in good agreement with previous published sea level curves, and highlights the post-glacial eustatic trend. The interval corresponding to the Younger Dyas cold reversal, instead, is more complex: two coeval coastal deposits characterize the northern Adriatic shelf at very different water depths. Several explanations and different models can be attempted to explain this conundrum, but the problem remains still unsolved.

Critical evaluation of diameter increment modelling in the Great Lakes region

Simulations of forest stand dynamics in a modelling framework including Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) are diameter driven, thus the diameter or basal area increment model needs a special attention. This dissertation critically evaluates diameter or basal area increment models and modelling approaches in the context of the Great Lakes region of the United States and Canada. A set of related studies are presented that critically evaluate the sub-model for change in individual tree basal diameter used in the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS), a dominant forestry model in the Great Lakes region. Various historical implementations of the STEMS (Stand and Tree Evaluation and Modeling System) family of diameter increment models, including the current public release of the Lake States variant of FVS (LS-FVS), were tested for the 30 most common tree species using data from the Michigan Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program. The results showed that current public release of the LS-FVS diameter increment model over-predicts 10-year diameter increment by 17% on average. Also the study affirms that a simple adjustment factor as a function of a single predictor, dbh (diameter at breast height) used in the past versions, provides an inadequate correction of model prediction bias. In order to re-engineer the basal diameter increment model, the historical, conceptual and philosophical differences among the individual tree increment model families and their modelling approaches were analyzed and discussed. Two underlying conceptual approaches toward diameter or basal area increment modelling have been often used: the potential-modifier (POTMOD) and composite (COMP) approaches, which are exemplified by the STEMS/TWIGS and Prognosis models, respectively. It is argued that both approaches essentially use a similar base function and neither is conceptually different from a biological perspective, even though they look different in their model forms. No matter what modelling approach is used, the base function is the foundation of an increment model. Two base functions – gamma and Box-Lucas – were identified as candidate base functions for forestry applications. The results of a comparative analysis of empirical fits showed that quality of fit is essentially similar, and both are sufficiently detailed and flexible for forestry applications. The choice of either base function in order to model diameter or basal area increment is dependent upon personal preference; however, the gamma base function may be preferred over the Box-Lucas, as it fits the periodic increment data in both a linear and nonlinear composite model form. Finally, the utility of site index as a predictor variable has been criticized, as it has been widely used in models for complex, mixed species forest stands though not well suited for this purpose. An alternative to site index in an increment model was explored, using site index and a combination of climate variables and Forest Ecosystem Classification (FEC) ecosites and data from the Province of Ontario, Canada. The results showed that a combination of climate and FEC ecosites variables can replace site index in the diameter increment model.

DISTRIBUTED APPROACH FOR SOLVING OPTIMAL POWER FLOW PROBLEMS IN THREE-PHASE UNBALANCED DISTRIBUTION NETWORK

The objective of this report is to study distributed (decentralized) three phase optimal power flow (OPF) problem in unbalanced power distribution networks. A full three phase representation of the distribution networks is considered to account for the highly unbalance state of the distribution networks. All distribution network’s series/shunt components, and load types/combinations had been modeled on commercial version of General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS), the high-level modeling system for mathematical programming and optimization. The OPF problem has been successfully implemented and solved in a centralized approach and distributed approach, where the objective is to minimize the active power losses in the entire system. The study was implemented on the IEEE-37 Node Test Feeder. A detailed discussion of all problem sides and aspects starting from the basics has been provided in this study. Full simulation results have been provided at the end of the report.

Is there a common pattern of future gas-phase air pollution in Europe under diverse climate change scenarios?

Climate change alone influences future levels of tropospheric ozone and their precursors through modifications of gas-phase chemistry, transport, removal, and natural emissions. The goal of this study is to determine at what extent the modes of variability of gas-phase pollutants respond to different climate change scenarios over Europe. The methodology includes the use of the regional modeling system MM5 (regional climate model version)-CHIMERE for a target domain covering Europe. Two full-transient simulations covering from 1991–2050 under the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios driven by ECHO-G global circulation model have been compared. The results indicate that the spatial patterns of variability for tropospheric ozone are similar for both scenarios, but the magnitude of the change signal significantly differs for A2 and B2. The 1991–2050 simulations share common characteristics for their chemical behavior. As observed from the NO2 and α-pinene modes of variability, our simulations suggest that the enhanced ozone chemical activity is driven by a number of parameters, such as the warming-induced increase in biogenic emissions and, to a lesser extent, by the variation in nitrogen dioxide levels. For gas-phase pollutants, the general increasing trend for ozone found under A2 and B2 forcing is due to a multiplicity of climate factors, such as increased temperature, decreased wet removal associated with an overall decrease of precipitation in southern Europe, increased photolysis of primary and secondary pollutants as a consequence of lower cloudiness and increased biogenic emissions fueled by higher temperatures.

Corneal cross-linking in keratoconus using the standard and rapid treatment protocol: differences in demarcation line and 12-month outcomes.

PURPOSE To compare the occurrence rate and depth of the demarcation line and topographical outcome after corneal cross-linking (CXL) for keratoconus using two different treatment protocols. METHODS A retrospective analysis of 131 eyes with progressive keratoconus treated with CXL using riboflavin and UV-A was performed. Eyes were treated either with the standard Dresden protocol (30 minutes irradiation, 3 mW/cm(2), UV-XTM 1000) or a rapid protocol (10 minutes irradiation, 9 mW/cm(2), UV-XTM 2000). The presence and depth of the corneal demarcation line was assessed with an anterior segment optical coherence tomography device 1 month after CXL by a masked observer. Corneal topography and tomography was performed at baseline and at 12-month follow-up with Pentacam and the TMS (Topographic Modeling System) device. RESULTS In the standard protocol group, 76.5% (62/81) of treated corneas revealed a demarcation line 1 month after CXL, whereas such a demarcation line was observed in only 22% (11/50) of eyes treated with the rapid protocol (P < 0.0001). The demarcation line was significantly more superficial in the rapid protocol group (P = 0.004). Corneal topography values between baseline and 12 months after CXL showed a mean change of -0.76 diopters (D) in Kmax (SD ± 2.7) in the standard protocol group versus a mean change of +0.72 D in Kmax (SD ± 1.5) in the rapid protocol (P = 0.007). CONCLUSIONS The rapid CXL protocol negatively influences the occurrence and depth of the demarcation line 1 month after CXL. Our results show a negative effect on the topographical outcome 1 year after CXL.

Flow separation and roughness lengths over large bedforms in a tidal environment

This study characterises the shape of the flow separation zone (FSZ) and wake region over large asymmetric bedforms under tidal flow conditions. High resolution bathymetry, flow velocity and turbulence data were measured along two parallel transects in a tidal channel covered with bedforms. The field data are used to verify the applicability of a numerical model for a systematic study using the Delft3D modelling system and test the model sensitivity to roughness length. Three experiments are then conducted to investigate how the FSZ size and wake extent vary depending on tidally-varying flow conditions, water levels and bathymetry. During the ebb, a large FSZ occurs over the steep lee side of each bedform. During the flood, no flow separation develops over the bedforms having a flat crest; however, a small FSZ is observed over the steepest part of the crest of some bedforms, where the slope is locally up to 15°. Over a given bedform morphology and constant water levels, no FSZ occurs for velocity magnitudes smaller than 0.1 m s**-1; as the flow accelerates, the FSZ reaches a stable size for velocity magnitudes greater than 0.4 m s**-1. The shape of the FSZ is not influenced by changes in water levels. On the other hand, variations in bed morphology, as recorded from the high-resolution bathymetry collected during the tidal cycle, influence the size and position of the FSZ: a FSZ develops only when the maximum lee side slope over a horizontal distance of 5 m is greater than 10°. The height and length of the wake region are related to the length of the FSZ. The total roughness along the transect lines is an order of magnitude larger during the ebb than during the flood due to flow direction in relation to bedform asymmetry: during the ebb, roughness is created by the large bedforms because a FSZ and wake develops over the steep lee side. The results add to the understanding of hydrodynamics of natural bedforms in a tidal environment and may be used to better parameterise small-scale processes in large-scale studies.

Predicting bed form roughness: the influence of lee side angle

Flow transverse bedforms (ripples and dunes) are ubiquitous in rivers and coastal seas. Local hydrodynamics and transport conditions depend on the size and geometry of these bedforms, as they constitute roughness elements at the bed. Bedform influence on flow energy must be considered for the understanding of flow dynamics, and in the development and application of numerical models. Common estimations or predictors of form roughness (friction factors) are based mostly on data of steep bedforms (with angle-of-repose lee slopes), and described by highly simplified bedform dimensions (heights and lengths). However, natural bedforms often are not steep, and differ in form and hydraulic effect relative to idealised bedforms. Based on systematic numerical model experiments, this study shows how the hydraulic effect of bedforms depends on the flow structure behind bedforms, which is determined by the bedform lee side angle, aspect ratio and relative height. Simulations reveal that flow separation behind bedform crests and, thus, a hydraulic effect is induced at lee side angles steeper than 11 to 18° depending on relative height, and that a fully developed flow separation zone exists only over bedforms with a lee side angle steeper than 24°. Furthermore, the hydraulic effect of bedforms with varying lee side angle is evaluated and a reduction function to common friction factors is proposed. A function is also developed for the Nikuradse roughness (k s), and a new equation is proposed which directly relates k s to bedform relative height, aspect ratio and lee side angle.

Flow conditions, bed form dimensions and shear stress experiments

Large asymmetric bed forms commonly develop in rivers. The turbulence associated with flow separation that develops over their steep lee side is responsible for the form shear stress which can represent a substantial part of total shear stress in rivers. This paper uses the Delft3D modeling system to investigate the effects of bed form geometry and forcing conditions on flow separation length and associated turbulence, and bed form shear stress over angle-of-repose (30 lee side angle) bed forms. The model was validated with lab measurements that showed sufficient agreement to be used for a systematic analysis. The influence of flow velocity, bed roughness, relative height (bed form height/water depth), and aspect ratio (bed form height/length) on the variations of the normalized length of the flow separation zone, the extent of the wake region (where the turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) was more than 70% of the maximum TKE), the average TKE within the wake region and the form shear stress were investigated. Form shear stress was found not to scale with the size of the flow separation zone but to be related to the product of the normalized extent of the wake region (extent of the wake region/extent of water body above the bed form) and the average TKE within the wake region. The results add to understanding of the hydrodynamics of bed forms and may be used for the development of better parameterizations of smallscale processes for application in large-scale studies.

Parameterization of applied general equilibrium models with flexible trade specifications based on the Armington, Krugman, and Melitz models

This paper explains how the Armington-Krugman-Melitz supermodel developed by Dixon and Rimmer can be parameterized, and demonstrates that only two kinds of additional information are required in order to extend a standard trade model to include Melitz-type monopolistic competition and heterogeneous firms. Further, it is shown how specifying too much additional information leads to violations of the model constraints, necessitating adjustment and reconciliation of the data. Once a Melitz-type model is parameterized, a Krugman-type model can also be parameterized using the calibrated values in the Melitz-type model without any additional data. Sample code for the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS) has also been prepared to promote the innovative supermodel in the AGE community.

Probabilistic analysis of water availability for agriculture and associated crop net margins.

Rising water demands are difficult to meet in many regions of the world. In consequence, under meteorological adverse conditions, big economic losses in agriculture can take place. This paper aims to analyze the variability of water shortage in an irrigation district and the effect on farmer?s income. A probabilistic analysis of water availability for agriculture in the irrigation district is performed, through a supply-system simulation approach, considering stochastically generated series of stream-flows. Net margins associated to crop production are as well estimated depending on final water allocations. Net margins are calculated considering either single-crop farming, either a polyculture system. In a polyculture system, crop distribution and water redistribution are calculated through an optimization approach using the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS) for several scenarios of irrigation water availability. Expected net margins are obtained by crop and for the optimal crop and water distribution. The maximum expected margins are obtained for the optimal crop combination, followed by the alfalfa monoculture, maize, rice, wheat and finally barley. Water is distributed as follows, from biggest to smallest allocation: rice, alfalfa, maize, wheat and barley.