Towards a Business Process Management Maturity Model

Business Process Management (BPM) has been identified as the number one business priority by a recent Gartner study (Gartner, 2005). However, BPM has a plethora of facets as its origins are in Business Process Reengineering, Process Innovation, Process Modelling, and Workflow Management to name a few. Organisations increasingly recognize the requirement for an increased process orientation and require appropriate comprehensive frameworks, which help to scope and evaluate their BPM initiative. This research project aims toward the development of a holistic and widely accepted BPM maturity model, which facilitates the assessment of BPM capabilities. This paper provides an overview about the current model with a focus on the actual model development utilizing a series of Delphi studies. The development process includes separate studies that focus on further defining and expanding the six core factors within the model, i.e. strategic alignment, governance, method, Information Technology, people and culture.

Towards sustainable housing for Vietnam

Economic development in Vietnam has led to the spontaneous development of new housing in many parts of Vietnam without consideration of environmental protection, cultural suitability, or resource reduction. The transition of Vietnamese housing into a sustainable industry is both an opportunity and challenge. Vietnam has to satisfy a growing demand for housing while confronting the issues of climate change, extreme weather events, nature conservation and cultural heritage. To that end, model green building guidelines are being developed to facilitate Vietnam’s adoption of sustainable development principles and practices. This paper presents the results of a survey and interviews carried out in Vietnam to ensure that model green guidelines align with the cultural and consumer preferences of the Vietnamese people.

Re-engineering project planning processes : a best practice model for managing project phase integration issues

Competitive markets are increasingly driving new initiatives for shorter cycle times resulting in increased overlapping of project phases. This, in turn, necessitates improving the interfaces between the different phases to be overlapped (integrated), thus allowing transfer of processes, information and knowledge from one individual or team to another. This transfer between phases, within and between projects, is one of the basic challenges to the philosophy of project management. To make the process transfer more transparent with minimal loss of momentum and project knowledge, this paper draws upon Total Quality Management (TQM) and Business Process Re-engineering (BPR) philosophies to develop a Best Practice Model for managing project phase integration. The paper presents the rationale behind the model development and outlines its two key parts; (1) Strategic Framework and (2) Implementation Plan. Key components of both the Strategic Framework and the Implementation Plan are presented and discussed.

An efficient public key management regime for vehicular ad hoc networks (VANETS)

The primary goal of the Vehicular Ad Hoc Network (VANET) is to provide real-time safety-related messages to motorists to enhance road safety. Accessing and disseminating safety-related information through the use of wireless communications technology in VANETs should be secured, as motorists may make critical decisions in dealing with an emergency situation based on the received information. If security concerns are not addressed in developing VANET systems, an adversary can tamper with, or suppress, the unprotected message to mislead motorists to cause traffic accidents and hazards. Current research on secure messaging in VANETs focuses on employing the certificate-based Public Key Infrastructure (PKI) scheme to support message encryption and digital signing. The security overhead of such a scheme, however, creates a transmission delay and introduces a time-consuming verification process to VANET communications. This thesis has proposed a novel public key verification and management approach for VANETs; namely, the Public Key Registry (PKR) regime. Compared to the VANET PKI scheme, this new approach can satisfy necessary security requirements with improved performance and scalability, and at a lower cost by reducing the security overheads of message transmission and eliminating digital certificate deployment and maintenance issues. The proposed PKR regime consists of the required infrastructure components, rules for public key management and verification, and a set of interactions and associated behaviours to meet these rule requirements. This is achieved through a system design as a logic process model with functional specifications. The PKR regime can be used as development guidelines for conforming implementations. An analysis and evaluation of the proposed PKR regime includes security features assessment, analysis of the security overhead of message transmission, transmission latency, processing latency, and scalability of the proposed PKR regime. Compared to certificate-based PKI approaches, the proposed PKR regime can maintain the necessary security requirements, significantly reduce the security overhead by approximately 70%, and improve the performance by 98%. Meanwhile, the result of the scalability evaluation shows that the latency of employing the proposed PKR regime stays much lower at approximately 15 milliseconds, whether operating in a huge or small environment. It is therefore believed that this research will create a new dimension to the provision of secure messaging services in VANETs.

Impact of a data warehouse model for improved decision-making process in healthcare

The health system is one sector dealing with a deluge of complex data. Many healthcare organisations struggle to utilise these volumes of health data effectively and efficiently. Also, there are many healthcare organisations, which still have stand-alone systems, not integrated for management of information and decision-making. This shows, there is a need for an effective system to capture, collate and distribute this health data. Therefore, implementing the data warehouse concept in healthcare is potentially one of the solutions to integrate health data. Data warehousing has been used to support business intelligence and decision-making in many other sectors such as the engineering, defence and retail sectors. The research problem that is going to be addressed is, "how can data warehousing assist the decision-making process in healthcare". To address this problem the researcher has narrowed an investigation focusing on a cardiac surgery unit. This research used the cardiac surgery unit at the Prince Charles Hospital (TPCH) as the case study. The cardiac surgery unit at TPCH uses a stand-alone database of patient clinical data, which supports clinical audit, service management and research functions. However, much of the time, the interaction between the cardiac surgery unit information system with other units is minimal. There is a limited and basic two-way interaction with other clinical and administrative databases at TPCH which support decision-making processes. The aims of this research are to investigate what decision-making issues are faced by the healthcare professionals with the current information systems and how decision-making might be improved within this healthcare setting by implementing an aligned data warehouse model or models. As a part of the research the researcher will propose and develop a suitable data warehouse prototype based on the cardiac surgery unit needs and integrating the Intensive Care Unit database, Clinical Costing unit database (Transition II) and Quality and Safety unit database [electronic discharge summary (e-DS)]. The goal is to improve the current decision-making processes. The main objectives of this research are to improve access to integrated clinical and financial data, providing potentially better information for decision-making for both improved from the questionnaire and by referring to the literature, the results indicate a centralised data warehouse model for the cardiac surgery unit at this stage. A centralised data warehouse model addresses current needs and can also be upgraded to an enterprise wide warehouse model or federated data warehouse model as discussed in the many consulted publications. The data warehouse prototype was able to be developed using SAS enterprise data integration studio 4.2 and the data was analysed using SAS enterprise edition 4.3. In the final stage, the data warehouse prototype was evaluated by collecting feedback from the end users. This was achieved by using output created from the data warehouse prototype as examples of the data desired and possible in a data warehouse environment. According to the feedback collected from the end users, implementation of a data warehouse was seen to be a useful tool to inform management options, provide a more complete representation of factors related to a decision scenario and potentially reduce information product development time. However, there are many constraints exist in this research. For example the technical issues such as data incompatibilities, integration of the cardiac surgery database and e-DS database servers and also, Queensland Health information restrictions (Queensland Health information related policies, patient data confidentiality and ethics requirements), limited availability of support from IT technical staff and time restrictions. These factors have influenced the process for the warehouse model development, necessitating an incremental approach. This highlights the presence of many practical barriers to data warehousing and integration at the clinical service level. Limitations included the use of a small convenience sample of survey respondents, and a single site case report study design. As mentioned previously, the proposed data warehouse is a prototype and was developed using only four database repositories. Despite this constraint, the research demonstrates that by implementing a data warehouse at the service level, decision-making is supported and data quality issues related to access and availability can be reduced, providing many benefits. Output reports produced from the data warehouse prototype demonstrated usefulness for the improvement of decision-making in the management of clinical services, and quality and safety monitoring for better clinical care. However, in the future, the centralised model selected can be upgraded to an enterprise wide architecture by integrating with additional hospital units’ databases.

Comparative study of analytical rental model and statistical models for predicting house rental levels

The need for a house rental model in Townsville, Australia is addressed. Models developed for predicting house rental levels are described. An analytical model is built upon a priori selected variables and parameters of rental levels. Regression models are generated to provide a comparison to the analytical model. Issues in model development and performance evaluation are discussed. A comparison of the models indicates that the analytical model performs better than the regression models.

Water Sensitive Urban Design (WSUD) application auditing

Background WSUD implementation in the Gold Coast City Council area commenced more than a decade ago. As a result, Council is expected to be in possession of WSUD assets valued at over tens of million dollars. The Gold Coast City Council is responsible for the maintenance and long-term management of these WSUD assets. Any shortcoming in implementation of best WSUD practices can potentially result in substantial liabilities and ineffective expenditure for the Council in addition to reduced efficiencies and outcomes. This highlights the importance of periodic auditing of WSUD implementation. Project scope The overall study entailed the following tasks: * A state-of-the-art literature review of the conceptual hydraulic and water quality treatment principles, current state of knowledge in relation to industry standards, best practice and identification of knowledge gaps in relation to maintenance and management practices and potential barriers to the implementation of WSUD. * Council stakeholder interviews to understand current practical issues in relation to the implementation of WSUD and the process of WSUD application from development application approval to asset management. * Field auditing of selected WSUD systems for condition assessment and identification of possible strengths and weaknesses in implementation. * Review of the Land Development Guidelines in order to identify any gaps and to propose recommendations for improvement. Conclusions Given below is a consolidated summary of the findings of the study undertaken. State-of-the-art literature review Though the conceptual framework for WSUD implementation is well established, the underlying theoretical knowledge underpinning the treatment processes and maintenance regimes and life cycle costing are still not well understood. Essentially, these are the recurring themes in the literature, namely, the inadequate understanding of treatment processes and lack of guidance to ensure specificity of maintenance regimes and life cycle costing of WSUDs. The fundamental barriers to successful WSUD implementation are: * Lack of knowledge transfer – This essentially relates to the lack of appropriate dissemination of research outcomes and the common absence of protocols for knowledge transfer within the same organisation. * Cultural barriers – These relate to social and institutional factors, including institutional inertia and the lack of clear understanding of the benefits. * Fragmented responsibilities – This results from poor administrative integration within local councils in relation to WSUDs. * Technical barriers – These relate to lack of knowledge on operational and maintenance practices which is compounded by model limitations and the lack of long-term quantitative performance evaluation data. * Lack of engineering standards – Despite the availability of numerous guidelines which are non-enforceable and can sometimes be confusing, there is a need for stringent engineering standards. The knowledge gaps in relation to WSUDs are only closing very slowly. Some of the common knowledge gaps identified in recent publications have been recognised almost a decade ago. The key knowledge gaps identified in the published literature are: * lack of knowledge on operational and maintenance practices; * lack of reliable methodology for identifying life cycle issues including costs; * lack of technical knowledge on system performance; * lack of guidance on retrofitting in existing developments. Based on the review of barriers to WSUD implementation and current knowledge gaps, the following were identified as core areas for further investigation: * performance evaluation of WSUD devices to enhance model development and to assess their viability in the context of environmental, economic and social drivers; establishing realistic life cycle costs to strengthen maintenance and asset management practices; * development of guidelines specific to retrofitting in view of the unique challenges posed by existing urban precincts together with guidance to ensure site specificity; establishment of a process for knowledge translation for enhancing currently available best practice guidelines; * identification of drivers and overcoming of barriers in the areas of institutional fragmentation, knowledge gaps and awareness of WSUD practices. GCCC stakeholder interviews Fourteen staff members involved in WSUD systems management in the Gold Coast City Council, representing four Directorates were interviewed using a standard questionnaire. The primary issues identified by the stakeholders were: * standardisation of WSUD terminology; * clear protocols for safeguarding devices during the construction phase; * engagement of all council stakeholders in the WSUD process from the initial phase; * limitations in the Land Development Guidelines; * ensuring public safety through design; * system siting to avoid conflicts with environmental and public use of open space; * provision of adequate access for maintenance; * integration of social and ecosystem issues to ensure long-term viability of systems in relation to both, vandalism and visual recreation; * lack of performance monitoring and inadequacy of the maintenance budget; * lack of technical training for staff involved in WSUD design approvals and maintenance; incentives for developers for acting responsibly in stormwater management. Field auditing of WSUD systems A representative cross section of WSUD systems in the Gold Coast were audited in the field. The following strengths and weaknesses in WSUD implementation were noted: * The implementation of WSUD systems in the field is not consistent. * The concerns raised by the stakeholders during the interviews in relation to WSUD implementation was validated from the observations from the field auditing, particularly in relation to the following: * safeguarding of devices during the construction phase * public safety * accessibility for maintenance * lack of performance monitoring by Council to assess system performance * inadequate maintenance of existing systems to suit site specific requirements. * A treatment train approach is not being consistently adopted. * Most of the systems audited have satisfactorily catered for public safety. Accessibility for maintenance has been satisfactorily catered for in most of the systems that were audited. * Systems are being commissioned prior to construction activities being substantially completed. * The hydraulic design of most systems appears to be satisfactory. * The design intent of the systems is not always clear. Review of Land Development Guidelines The Land Development Guidelines (TDG) was extensively reviewed and the following primary issues were noted in relation to WSUD implementation: * the LDG appears to have been prepared primarily to provide guidance to developers. It is not clear to what extent the guidelines are applicable to Council staff involved in WSUD maintenance and management; * Section 13 is very voluminous and appears to be a compilation of a series of individual documents resulting in difficulties in locating specific information, a lack of integration and duplication of information; * the LDG has been developed with a primary focus on new urban precinct development and the retrofitting of systems in existing developments has not been specifically discussed; * WSUDs are discussed in two different sections in the LDG and it is not clear which section takes precedence as there are inconsistencies between the two sections; there is inconsistent terminology being used; * there is a need for consolidation of information provided in different sections in the LDG; * there are inconsistencies in the design criteria provided; * there is a need for regular updating of the LDG to ensure that the information provided encompasses the state-of-the-art; * there is limited guidance provided for the preparation of maintenance plans and life cycle costing to assist developers in asset handover and to assist Council staff in assessment. * Based on these observations, eleven recommendations have been provided which are discussed below. Additionally, the stakeholder provided the following specific comments during the interviews in relation to the LDG: * lack of flexibility to cover the different stages of the life cycle of the systems; * no differentiation in projects undertaken by developers and Council; * inadequate information with regards to safety issues such as maximum standing water depth, fencing and safety barriers and public access; * lack of detailed design criteria in relation to Crime Prevention through Environmental Design, safety, amenity, environment, surrounding uses and impacts on surroundings; * inadequate information regarding maintenance requirements specific to the assessment and compliance phases; * recommendations for plantings are based primarily on landscape requirements rather than pollutant uptake capability. Recommendations With regards to the Land Development Guidelines, the following specific recommendations are provided: 1. the relevant sections and their extent of applicability to Council should be clearly identified; 2. integration of the different subsections within Section 13 and re-formatting the document for easy reference; 3. the maintenance guidelines provided in Section 13 should be translated to a maintenance manual for guidance of Council staff; 4. should consider extending the Guidelines to specifically encompass retrofitting of WSUD systems to existing urban precincts; 5. Section 3 needs to be revised to be made consistent with Section 13, to ensure priority for WSUD practices in urban precincts and to move away from conventional stormwater drainage design such as kerb and channelling; 6. it would also be good to specify as to which Section takes predominance in relation to stormwater drainage. It is expected that Section 13 would take predominance over the other sections in the LDG; 7. terminology needs to be made consistent to avoid confusion among developers and Council staff. Water Sensitive Urban Design is the term commonly used in Australia for stormwater quality treatment, rather than Stormwater Quality Improvement Devices. This once again underlines the need for ensuring consistency between Section 3 and Section 13; 8. it would also be good if there is a glossary of commonly used terms in relation to WSUD for use by all stakeholders and which should also be reflected in the LDG; 9. consolidation of all WSUD information into one section should be considered together with appropriate indicators in other LDG Sections regarding the availability of WSUD information. Ensuring consistency in the information provided is implied; 10. Section 13 should be updated at regular intervals to ensure the incorporation of the latest in research outcomes and incorporating criteria and guidance based on the state-of-the-art knowledge. The updating could be undertaken, say, in five year cycles. This would help to overcome the current lack of knowledge transfer; 11. the Council should consider commissioning specialised studies to extend the current knowledge base in relation to WSUD maintenance and life cycle costing. Additionally, Recommendation 10 is also applicable in this instance. The following additional recommendations are made based on the state-of-the-art literature review, stakeholder interviews and field auditing of WSUD systems: 1. Performance monitoring of existing systems to assess improvements to water quality, identify modifications and enhancements to improve performance; 2. Appropriate and monitored maintenance during different phases of development of built assets over time is needed to investigate the most appropriate time/phase of development to commission the final WSUD asset. 3. Undertake focussed investigations in the areas of WSUD maintenance and asset management in order to establish more realistic life cycle costs of systems and maintenance schedules; 4. the engagement of all relevant Council stakeholders from the initial stage of concept planning through to asset handover, and ongoing monitoring. This close engagement of internal stakeholders will assist in building a greater understanding of responsibilities and contribute to overcoming constraints imposed by fragmented responsibilities; 5. the undertaking of a public education program to inform the community of the benefits and ecosystem functions of WSUD systems; 6. technical training to impart state-of-the-art knowledge to staff involved in the approval of designs and maintenance and management of WSUD projects; 7. during the construction phase, it is important to ensure that appropriate measures to safeguard WSUD devices are implemented; 8. risks associated with potential public access to open water zones should be minimised with the application of appropriate safety measures; 9. system siting should ensure that potential conflicts are avoided with respect to public and ecosystem needs; 10. integration of social and ecosystem issues to ensure long-term viability of systems; provide incentives to developers who are proactive and responsible in the area of stormwater management.

The structured and practical approach in development of decision support system for consultant selection in public sector infrastructure project

Nowadays, most of the infrastructure development projects undertaken are complex in nature. Practically, public clients who do not have a good understanding of the design and management may suffer severe losses, especially for infrastructure projects. There is a need for luring the right consultant to secure client's investment in infrastructure developments. Throughout the project life cycle, consultants play vital role from the inception to completion stage of a project. A few studies in Malaysia show that infrastructure projects involving irrigation and drainage have experience problems such as poor workmanship, delay and cost overrun due to the consultant's inability or the client incompetence of recruiting consultants in time. This highlights the need of aided decision making and an efficient system to select the best consultant by using Decision Support System (DSS). On the other hand, recent trends reveal that most DSS in construction only concentrate on decision model development. These models are impractical and unused as they are complicated or difficult for laymen such as project managers to utilize. Thus, this research attempts to develop an efficient DSS for consultant selection namely consultDeSS. Driven by the motivation and research aims, this study deployed Design Science Research Methodology (DSRM) dominant with a combination of case studies at the Malaysian Department of Irrigation and Drainage (DID). Two real projects involving irrigation and drainage infrastructure were used to design, implement and evaluate the artefact. The 3-tier consultDeSS was revised after the evaluation and the design was significantly improved based on user feedback. By developing desirable tools that fit client's needs will enhance the productivity and minimize conflict within groups and organisations. The tool is more usable and efficient compared to previous studies in construction. Thus, this research has demonstrated a purposeful artefact with a practical and valid structured development approach that is applicable in a variety of problems in construction discipline.

An Artificial Neutral Network (ANN) model for predicting biodiesel kinetic viscosity as a function of temperature and chemical compositions

An Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is a computational modeling tool which has found extensive acceptance in many disciplines for modeling complex real world problems. An ANN can model problems through learning by example, rather than by fully understanding the detailed characteristics and physics of the system. In the present study, the accuracy and predictive power of an ANN was evaluated in predicting kinetic viscosity of biodiesels over a wide range of temperatures typically encountered in diesel engine operation. In this model, temperature and chemical composition of biodiesel were used as input variables. In order to obtain the necessary data for model development, the chemical composition and temperature dependent fuel properties of ten different types of biodiesels were measured experimentally using laboratory standard testing equipments following internationally recognized testing procedures. The Neural Networks Toolbox of MatLab R2012a software was used to train, validate and simulate the ANN model on a personal computer. The network architecture was optimised following a trial and error method to obtain the best prediction of the kinematic viscosity. The predictive performance of the model was determined by calculating the absolute fraction of variance (R2), root mean squared (RMS) and maximum average error percentage (MAEP) between predicted and experimental results. This study found that ANN is highly accurate in predicting the viscosity of biodiesel and demonstrates the ability of the ANN model to find a meaningful relationship between biodiesel chemical composition and fuel properties at different temperature levels. Therefore the model developed in this study can be a useful tool in accurately predict biodiesel fuel properties instead of undertaking costly and time consuming experimental tests.

Evaluation of a patient-specific finite-element model to simulate conservative treatment in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis

Study design Retrospective validation study. Objectives To propose a method to evaluate, from a clinical standpoint, the ability of a finite-element model (FEM) of the trunk to simulate orthotic correction of spinal deformity and to apply it to validate a previously described FEM. Summary of background data Several FEMs of the scoliotic spine have been described in the literature. These models can prove useful in understanding the mechanisms of scoliosis progression and in optimizing its treatment, but their validation has often been lacking or incomplete. Methods Three-dimensional (3D) geometries of 10 patients before and during conservative treatment were reconstructed from biplanar radiographs. The effect of bracing was simulated by modeling displacements induced by the brace pads. Simulated clinical indices (Cobb angle, T1–T12 and T4–T12 kyphosis, L1–L5 lordosis, apical vertebral rotation, torsion, rib hump) and vertebral orientations and positions were compared to those measured in the patients' 3D geometries. Results Errors in clinical indices were of the same order of magnitude as the uncertainties due to 3D reconstruction; for instance, Cobb angle was simulated with a root mean square error of 5.7°, and rib hump error was 5.6°. Vertebral orientation was simulated with a root mean square error of 4.8° and vertebral position with an error of 2.5 mm. Conclusions The methodology proposed here allowed in-depth evaluation of subject-specific simulations, confirming that FEMs of the trunk have the potential to accurately simulate brace action. These promising results provide a basis for ongoing 3D model development, toward the design of more efficient orthoses.

Non-linear regression model for spatial variation in precipitation chemistry for South India

Chemical composition of rainwater changes from sea to inland under the influence of several major factors - topographic location of area, its distance from sea, annual rainfall. A model is developed here to quantify the variation in precipitation chemistry under the influence of inland distance and rainfall amount. Various sites in India categorized as 'urban', 'suburban' and 'rural' have been considered for model development. pH, HCO3, NO3 and Mg do not change much from coast to inland while, SO4 and Ca change is subjected to local emissions. Cl and Na originate solely from sea salinity and are the chemistry parameters in the model. Non-linear multiple regressions performed for the various categories revealed that both rainfall amount and precipitation chemistry obeyed a power law reduction with distance from sea. Cl and Na decrease rapidly for the first 100 km distance from sea, then decrease marginally for the next 100 km, and later stabilize. Regression parameters estimated for different cases were found to be consistent (R-2 similar to 0.8). Variation in one of the parameters accounted for urbanization. Model was validated using data points from the southern peninsular region of the country. Estimates are found to be within 99.9% confidence interval. Finally, this relationship between the three parameters - rainfall amount, coastline distance, and concentration (in terms of Cl and Na) was validated with experiments conducted in a small experimental watershed in the south-west India. Chemistry estimated using the model was in good correlation with observed values with a relative error of similar to 5%. Monthly variation in the chemistry is predicted from a downscaling model and then compared with the observed data. Hence, the model developed for rain chemistry is useful in estimating the concentrations at different spatio-temporal scales and is especially applicable for south-west region of India. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development of profitable milk production systems for northern Australia: a field assessment of the productivity of five potential farming systems using farmlets.

Farmlets, each of 20 cows, were established to field test five milk production systems and provide a learning platform for farmers and researchers in a subtropical environment. The systems were developed through desktop modelling and industry consultation in response to the need for substantial increases in farm milk production following deregulation of the industry. Four of the systems were based on grazing and the continued use of existing farmland resource bases, whereas the fifth comprised a feedlot and associated forage base developed as a greenfield site. The field evaluation was conducted over 4 years under more adverse environmental conditions than anticipated with below average rainfall and restrictions on irrigation. For the grazed systems, mean annual milk yield per cow ranged from 6330 kg/year (1.9 cows/ha) for a herd based on rain-grown tropical pastures to 7617 kg/year (3.0 cows/ha) where animals were based on temperate and tropical irrigated forages. For the feedlot herd, production of 9460 kg/cow.year (4.3 cows/ha of forage base) was achieved. For all herds, the level of production achieved required annual inputs of concentrates of similar to 3 t DM/animal and purchased conserved fodder from 0.3 to 1.5 t DM/animal. This level of supplementary feeding made a major contribution to total farm nutrient inputs, contributing 50% or more of the nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium entering the farming system, and presents challenges to the management of manure and urine that results from the higher stocking rates enabled. Mean annual milk production for the five systems ranged from 88 to 105% of that predicted by the desktop modelling. This level of agreement for the grazed systems was achieved with minimal overall change in predicted feed inputs; however, the feedlot system required a substantial increase in inputs over those predicted. Reproductive performance for all systems was poorer than anticipated, particularly over the summer mating period. We conclude that the desktop model, developed as a rapid response to assist farmers modify their current farming systems, provided a reasonable prediction of inputs required and milk production. Further model development would need to consider more closely climate variability, the limitations summer temperatures place on reproductive success and the feed requirements of feedlot herds.

Simple software processes and tests improve the reliability and usefulness of a model.

Models are abstractions of reality that have predetermined limits (often not consciously thought through) on what problem domains the models can be used to explore. These limits are determined by the range of observed data used to construct and validate the model. However, it is important to remember that operating the model beyond these limits, one of the reasons for building the model in the first place, potentially brings unwanted behaviour and thus reduces the usefulness of the model. Our experience with the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM), a farming systems model, has led us to adapt techniques from the disciplines of modelling and software development to create a model development process. This process is simple, easy to follow, and brings a much higher level of stability to the development effort, which then delivers a much more useful model. A major part of the process relies on having a range of detailed model tests (unit, simulation, sensibility, validation) that exercise a model at various levels (sub-model, model and simulation). To underline the usefulness of testing, we examine several case studies where simulated output can be compared with simple relationships. For example, output is compared with crop water use efficiency relationships gleaned from the literature to check that the model reproduces the expected function. Similarly, another case study attempts to reproduce generalised hydrological relationships found in the literature. This paper then describes a simple model development process (using version control, automated testing and differencing tools), that will enhance the reliability and usefulness of a model.

A nonlinear model for assessing multiple probabilistic risks: A case study in South five-island of Changdao National Nature Reserve in China

Several methods for estimating the potential impacts caused by multiple probabilistic risks have been suggested. These existing methods mostly rely on the weight sum algorithm to address the need for integrated risk assessment. This paper develops a nonlinear model to perform such an assessment. The joint probability algorithm has been applied to the model development. An application of the developed model in South five-island of Changdao National Nature Reserve, China, combining remote sensing data and a GIS technique, provides a reasonable risk assessment. Based on the case study, we discuss the feasibility of the model. We propose that the model has the potential for use in identifying the regional primary stressor, investigating the most vulnerable habitat, and assessing the integrated impact of multiple stressors. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.