Dowscaling estocástico para extremos climáticos via interpolação espacial

Present day weather forecast models usually cannot provide realistic descriptions of local and particulary extreme weather conditions. However, for lead times of about a small number of days, they provide reliable forecast of the atmospheric circulation that encompasses the subscale processes leading to extremes. Hence, forecasts of extreme events can only be achieved through a combination of dynamical and statistical analysis methods, where a stable and significant statistical model based on prior physical reasoning establishes posterior statistical-dynamical model between the local extremes and the large scale circulation. Here we present the development and application of such a statistical model calibration on the besis of extreme value theory, in order to derive probabilistic forecast for extreme local temperature. The dowscaling applies to NCEP/NCAR re-analysis, in order to derive estimates of daily temperature at Brazilian northeastern region weather stations

Modelagem dinâmica espacial aplicada na avaliação das mudanças da cobertura da terra no entorno de dutos utilizando autômatos celulares: estudo de caso duto ORBEL

Pós-graduação em Geociências e Meio Ambiente - IGCE

Fluxo da água subterrânea em sistema de encosta-rio, município de Paulínia (SP): caracterização hidrogeológica e simulação numérica

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Calibrazione di modelli idrologici con algoritmi multiobiettivo

Traditional procedures for rainfall-runoff model calibration are generally based on the fit of the individual values of simulated and observed hydrographs. It is used here an alternative option that is carried out by matching, in the optimisation process, a set of statistics of the river flow. Such approach has the additional, significant advantage to allow also a straightforward regional calibration of the model parameters, based on the regionalisation of the selected statistics. The minimisation of the set of objective functions is carried out by using the AMALGAM algorithm, leading to the identification of behavioural parameter sets. The procedure is applied to a set of river basins located in central Italy: the basins are treated alternatively as gauged and ungauged and, as a term of comparison, the results obtained with a traditional time-domain calibration is also presented. The results show that a suitable choice of the statistics to be optimised leads to interesting results in real world case studies as far as the reproduction of the different flow regimes is concerned.

Modeling particulate organic matter diagenesis with SED2K

Diagenesis of particulate organic matter in lake sediments consumes and produces chemical species that have significant effects on water quality, e.g. oxygen and nitrate depletion and attendant mediation of nutrient and metal recycling. A mechanistic, mass balance model (SED2K) is applied here in quantifying the time course and magnitude of sediment response to reductions in depositional fluxes of organic matter. In applying the model, direct, site-specific measurements of the sedimentation and POM rates in Onondaga Lake are used, leaving only the diagenesis coefficient (solubilization) for estimation by fit to downcore POM profiles. Model calibration is constrained by the dual requirement that both POM profiles and the time series of efflux of the products of diagenesis must be matched. Simulations point to the existence of POM preservation processes at depth, a phenomenon that may enhance the timing and magnitude of lake recovery.

Calibrating Wireless Sensor Network Simulation Models with Real-World Experiments

This paper studies the energy-efficiency and service characteristics of a recently developed energy-efficient MAC protocol for wireless sensor networks in simulation and on a real sensor hardware testbed. This opportunity is seized to illustrate how simulation models can be verified by cross-comparing simulation results with real-world experiment results. The paper demonstrates that by careful calibration of simulation model parameters, the inevitable gap between simulation models and real-world conditions can be reduced. It concludes with guidelines for a methodology for model calibration and validation of sensor network simulation models.

Assessing vegetation cover and biomass in restored erosion areas in Iceland using SPOT satellite data

Due to highly erodible volcanic soils and a harsh climate, livestock grazing in Iceland has led to serious soil erosion on about 40% of the country's surface. Over the last 100 years, various revegetation and restoration measures were taken on large areas distributed all over Iceland in an attempt to counteract this problem. The present research aimed to develop models for estimating percent vegetation cover (VC) and aboveground biomass (AGB) based on satellite data, as this would make it possible to assess and monitor the effectiveness of restoration measures over large areas at a fairly low cost. Models were developed based on 203 vegetation cover samples and 114 aboveground biomass samples distributed over five SPOT satellite datasets. All satellite datasets were atmospherically corrected, and digital numbers were converted into ground reflectance. Then a selection of vegetation indices (VIs) was calculated, followed by simple and multiple linear regression analysis of the relations between the field data and the calculated VIs. Best results were achieved using multiple linear regression models for both %VC and AGB. The model calibration and validation results showed that R2 and RMSE values for most VIs do not vary very much. For percent VC, R2 values range between 0.789 and 0.822, leading to RMSEs ranging between 15.89% and 16.72%. For AGB, R2 values for low-biomass areas (AGB < 800 g/m2) range between 0.607 and 0.650, leading to RMSEs ranging between 126.08 g/m2 and 136.38 g/m2. The AGB model developed for all areas, including those with high biomass coverage (AGB > 800 g/m2), achieved R2 values between 0.487 and 0.510, resulting in RMSEs ranging from 234 g/m2 to 259.20 g/m2. The models predicting percent VC generally overestimate observed low percent VC and slightly underestimate observed high percent VC. The estimation models for AGB behave in a similar way, but over- and underestimation are much more pronounced. These results show that it is possible to estimate percent VC with high accuracy based on various VIs derived from SPOT satellite data. AGB of restoration areas with low-biomass values of up to 800 g/m2 can likewise be estimated with high accuracy based on various VIs derived from SPOT satellite data, whereas in the case of high biomass coverage, estimation accuracy decreases with increasing biomass values. Accordingly, percent VC can be estimated with high accuracy anywhere in Iceland, whereas AGB is much more difficult to estimate, particularly for areas with high-AGB variability.

Modelling susceptibility of grassland soil to macropore flow

Investigating preferential flow, including macropore flow, is crucial to predicting and preventing point sources of contamination in soil, for example in the vicinity of pumping wells. With a view to advancing groundwater protection, this study aimed (i) to quantify the strength of macropore flow in four representative natural grassland soils on the Swiss plateau, and (ii) to define the parameters that significantly control macropore flow in grassland soil. For each soil type we selected three measurement points on which three successive irrigation experiments were carried out, resulting in a total of 36 irrigations. The strength of macropore flow, parameterized as the cumulated water volume flowing from macropores at a depth of 1 m in response to an irrigation of 60 mm h−1 intensity and 1 h duration, was simulated using the dual-permeability MACRO model. The model calibration was based on the key soil parameters and fine measurements of water content at different depths. Modelling results indicate high performance of macropore flow in all investigated soil types except in gleysols. The volume of water that flowed from macropores and was hence expected to reach groundwater varied between 81% and 94% in brown soils, 59% and 67% in para-brown soils, 43% and 56% in acid brown soils, and 22% and 35% in gleysols. These results show that spreading pesticides and herbicides in pumping well protection zones poses a high risk of contamination and must be strictly prohibited. We also found that organic carbon content was not correlated with the strength of macropore flow, probably due to its very weak variation in our study, while saturated water content showed a negative correlation with macropore flow. The correlation between saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks) and macropore flow was negative as well, but weak. Macropore flow appears to be controlled by the interaction between the bulk density of the uppermost topsoil layer (0–0.10 m) and the macroporosity of the soil below. This interaction also affects the variations in Ks and saturated water content. Further investigations are needed to better understand the combined effect of all these processes including the exchange between micropore and macropore domains.

Modelos determinístico y probabilístico para la estimación de la carga de nitratos en una cuenca rural

En este trabajo se desarrolló un modelo probabilístico que utiliza la teoría de la función de densidad de probabilidades derivada para estimar la carga media anual de nitratos transportada por el escurrimiento superficial, utilizando una relación funcional entre el escurrimiento y la carga de nitratos. El modelo determinístico hidrológico y de calidad de agua denominado Simulator for Water Resources in Rural Basins - Water Quality (SWRRB-WQ) fue utilizado para estimar la carga de nitratos en el escurrimiento superficial. Este modelo emplea como variable de entrada la precipitación diaria observada en la Estación del Aeropuerto de Olavarría durante el período 1988 a 2002. Para la calibración del modelo se aplicó una nueva metodología que estima la incertidumbre en los valores observados. Ambos modelos probabilístico y determinístico se aplican en una subcuenca rural del arroyo Tapalqué (provincia de Buenos Aires, Argentina) y finalmente se comparan los valores de la carga de nitratos estimados con los dos modelos con las observaciones realizadas en la sección del arroyo motivo de este estudio. Los resultados muestran que la carga media de nitratos obtenida con el modelo probabilístico es del mismo orden de magnitud que los valores medios observados y estimados con el modelo hidrológico y de calidad de agua SWRRB-WQ.

AMS radiocarbon dates and pollen analysis of ODP Hole 175-1078C

ODP Site 1078 situated under the coast of Angola provides the first record of the vegetation history for Angola. The upper 11 m of the core covers the past 30 thousand years, which has been analysed palynologically in decadal to centennial resolution. Alkenone sea surface temperature estimates were analysed in centennial resolution. We studied sea surface temperatures and vegetation development during full glacial, deglacial, and interglacial conditions. During the glacial the vegetation in Angola was very open consisting of grass and heath lands, deserts and semi-deserts, which suggests a cool and dry climate. A change to warmer and more humid conditions is indicated by forest expansion starting in step with the earliest temperature rise in Antarctica, 22 thousand years ago. We infer that around the period of Heinrich Event 1, a northward excursion of the Angola Benguela Front and the Congo Air Boundary resulted in cool sea surface temperatures but rain forest remained present in the northern lowlands of Angola. Rain forest and dry forest area increase 15 thousand years ago. During the Holocene, dry forests and Miombo woodlands expanded. Also in Angola globally recognised climate changes at 8 thousand and 4 thousand years ago had an impact on the vegetation. During the past 2 thousand years, savannah vegetation became dominant.

Charcoal records of two sediment cores off SW Africa

We analyze sedimentary charcoal records to show that the changes in fire regime over the past 21,000 yrs are predictable from changes in regional climates. Analyses of paleo- fire data show that fire increases monotonically with changes in temperature and peaks at intermediate moisture levels, and that temperature is quantitatively the most important driver of changes in biomass burning over the past 21,000 yrs. Given that a similar relationship between climate drivers and fire emerges from analyses of the interannual variability in biomass burning shown by remote-sensing observations of month-by-month burnt area between 1996 and 2008, our results signal a serious cause for concern in the face of continuing global warming.

Pollen and diatom analysis on varved sediments in Lake Jues (Harz Mountains, Germany)

Studies combining sedimentological and biological evidence to reconstruct Holocene climate beyond the major changes, and especially seasonality, are rare in Europe, and are nearly completely absent in Germany. The present study tries to reconstruct changes of seasonality from evidence of annual algal successions within the framework of well-established pollen zonation and 14C-AMS dates from terrestrial plants. Laminated Holocene sediments in Lake Jues (10°20.70' E, 51°39.30' N, 241 m a.s.l.), located at the SW margin of the Harz Mountains, central Germany, were studied for sediment characteristics, pollen, diatoms and coccal green algae. An age model is based on 21 calibrated AMS radiocarbon dates from terrestrial plants. The sedimentary record covers the entire Holocene period. Trophic status and circulation/stagnation patterns of the lake were inferred from algal assemblages, the subannual structure of varves and the physico-chemical properties of the sediment. During the Holocene, mixing conditions alternated between di-, oligo- and meromictic depending on length and variability of spring and fall periods, and the stability of winter and summer weather. The trophic state was controlled by nutrient input, circulation patterns and the temperature-dependent rates of organic production and mineralization. Climate shifts, mainly in phase with those recorded from other European regions, are inferred from changing limnological conditions and terrestrial vegetation. Significant changes occurred at 11,600 cal. yr. BP (Preboreal warming), between 10,600 and 10,100 cal. yr. BP (Boreal cooling), and between 8,400 and 4,550 cal. yr. BP (warm and dry interval of the Atlantic). Since 4,550 cal. yr. BP the climate became gradually cooler, wetter and more oceanic. This trend was interrupted by warmer and dryer phases between 3,440 and 2,850 cal. yr. BP and, likely, between 2,500 and 2,250 cal. yr. BP.

Age models for ODP Leg 172 sites

Ten ODP sites drilled in a depth transect (2164-4775 m water depth) during Leg 172 recovered high-deposition rate (>20 cm/kyr) sedimentary sections from sediment drifts in the western North Atlantic. For each site an age model covering the past 0.8-0.9 Ma has been developed. The time scales have a resolution of 10-20 kyr and are derived by tuning variations of estimated carbonate content to the orbital parameters precession and obliquity. Based on the similarity in the signature of proxy records and the spectral character of the time series, the sites are divided into two groups: precession cycles are better developed in carbonate records from a group of shallow sites (2164-2975 m water depth, Sites 1055-1058) while the deeper sites (2995-4775 m water depth, Sites 1060-1063) are characterized by higher spectral density in the obliquity band. The resulting time scales show excellent coherence with other dated carbonate and isotope records from low latitudes. Besides the typical Milankovitch cyclicity significant variance of the resulting carbonate time series is concentrated at millennial-scale changes with periods of about 12, 6, 4, 2.5, and 1.5 kyr. Comparisons of carbonate records from the Blake Bahama Outer Ridge and the Bermuda Rise reveal a remarkable similarity in the time and frequency domain indicating a basin-wide uniform sedimentation pattern during the last 0.9 Ma.