973 resultados para Model calibration
Resumo:
Investigating preferential flow, including macropore flow, is crucial to predicting and preventing point sources of contamination in soil, for example in the vicinity of pumping wells. With a view to advancing groundwater protection, this study aimed (i) to quantify the strength of macropore flow in four representative natural grassland soils on the Swiss plateau, and (ii) to define the parameters that significantly control macropore flow in grassland soil. For each soil type we selected three measurement points on which three successive irrigation experiments were carried out, resulting in a total of 36 irrigations. The strength of macropore flow, parameterized as the cumulated water volume flowing from macropores at a depth of 1 m in response to an irrigation of 60 mm h−1 intensity and 1 h duration, was simulated using the dual-permeability MACRO model. The model calibration was based on the key soil parameters and fine measurements of water content at different depths. Modelling results indicate high performance of macropore flow in all investigated soil types except in gleysols. The volume of water that flowed from macropores and was hence expected to reach groundwater varied between 81% and 94% in brown soils, 59% and 67% in para-brown soils, 43% and 56% in acid brown soils, and 22% and 35% in gleysols. These results show that spreading pesticides and herbicides in pumping well protection zones poses a high risk of contamination and must be strictly prohibited. We also found that organic carbon content was not correlated with the strength of macropore flow, probably due to its very weak variation in our study, while saturated water content showed a negative correlation with macropore flow. The correlation between saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks) and macropore flow was negative as well, but weak. Macropore flow appears to be controlled by the interaction between the bulk density of the uppermost topsoil layer (0–0.10 m) and the macroporosity of the soil below. This interaction also affects the variations in Ks and saturated water content. Further investigations are needed to better understand the combined effect of all these processes including the exchange between micropore and macropore domains.
Resumo:
En este trabajo se desarrolló un modelo probabilístico que utiliza la teoría de la función de densidad de probabilidades derivada para estimar la carga media anual de nitratos transportada por el escurrimiento superficial, utilizando una relación funcional entre el escurrimiento y la carga de nitratos. El modelo determinístico hidrológico y de calidad de agua denominado Simulator for Water Resources in Rural Basins - Water Quality (SWRRB-WQ) fue utilizado para estimar la carga de nitratos en el escurrimiento superficial. Este modelo emplea como variable de entrada la precipitación diaria observada en la Estación del Aeropuerto de Olavarría durante el período 1988 a 2002. Para la calibración del modelo se aplicó una nueva metodología que estima la incertidumbre en los valores observados. Ambos modelos probabilístico y determinístico se aplican en una subcuenca rural del arroyo Tapalqué (provincia de Buenos Aires, Argentina) y finalmente se comparan los valores de la carga de nitratos estimados con los dos modelos con las observaciones realizadas en la sección del arroyo motivo de este estudio. Los resultados muestran que la carga media de nitratos obtenida con el modelo probabilístico es del mismo orden de magnitud que los valores medios observados y estimados con el modelo hidrológico y de calidad de agua SWRRB-WQ.
Resumo:
ODP Site 1078 situated under the coast of Angola provides the first record of the vegetation history for Angola. The upper 11 m of the core covers the past 30 thousand years, which has been analysed palynologically in decadal to centennial resolution. Alkenone sea surface temperature estimates were analysed in centennial resolution. We studied sea surface temperatures and vegetation development during full glacial, deglacial, and interglacial conditions. During the glacial the vegetation in Angola was very open consisting of grass and heath lands, deserts and semi-deserts, which suggests a cool and dry climate. A change to warmer and more humid conditions is indicated by forest expansion starting in step with the earliest temperature rise in Antarctica, 22 thousand years ago. We infer that around the period of Heinrich Event 1, a northward excursion of the Angola Benguela Front and the Congo Air Boundary resulted in cool sea surface temperatures but rain forest remained present in the northern lowlands of Angola. Rain forest and dry forest area increase 15 thousand years ago. During the Holocene, dry forests and Miombo woodlands expanded. Also in Angola globally recognised climate changes at 8 thousand and 4 thousand years ago had an impact on the vegetation. During the past 2 thousand years, savannah vegetation became dominant.
Resumo:
We analyze sedimentary charcoal records to show that the changes in fire regime over the past 21,000 yrs are predictable from changes in regional climates. Analyses of paleo- fire data show that fire increases monotonically with changes in temperature and peaks at intermediate moisture levels, and that temperature is quantitatively the most important driver of changes in biomass burning over the past 21,000 yrs. Given that a similar relationship between climate drivers and fire emerges from analyses of the interannual variability in biomass burning shown by remote-sensing observations of month-by-month burnt area between 1996 and 2008, our results signal a serious cause for concern in the face of continuing global warming.
Resumo:
Studies combining sedimentological and biological evidence to reconstruct Holocene climate beyond the major changes, and especially seasonality, are rare in Europe, and are nearly completely absent in Germany. The present study tries to reconstruct changes of seasonality from evidence of annual algal successions within the framework of well-established pollen zonation and 14C-AMS dates from terrestrial plants. Laminated Holocene sediments in Lake Jues (10°20.70' E, 51°39.30' N, 241 m a.s.l.), located at the SW margin of the Harz Mountains, central Germany, were studied for sediment characteristics, pollen, diatoms and coccal green algae. An age model is based on 21 calibrated AMS radiocarbon dates from terrestrial plants. The sedimentary record covers the entire Holocene period. Trophic status and circulation/stagnation patterns of the lake were inferred from algal assemblages, the subannual structure of varves and the physico-chemical properties of the sediment. During the Holocene, mixing conditions alternated between di-, oligo- and meromictic depending on length and variability of spring and fall periods, and the stability of winter and summer weather. The trophic state was controlled by nutrient input, circulation patterns and the temperature-dependent rates of organic production and mineralization. Climate shifts, mainly in phase with those recorded from other European regions, are inferred from changing limnological conditions and terrestrial vegetation. Significant changes occurred at 11,600 cal. yr. BP (Preboreal warming), between 10,600 and 10,100 cal. yr. BP (Boreal cooling), and between 8,400 and 4,550 cal. yr. BP (warm and dry interval of the Atlantic). Since 4,550 cal. yr. BP the climate became gradually cooler, wetter and more oceanic. This trend was interrupted by warmer and dryer phases between 3,440 and 2,850 cal. yr. BP and, likely, between 2,500 and 2,250 cal. yr. BP.
Resumo:
Ten ODP sites drilled in a depth transect (2164-4775 m water depth) during Leg 172 recovered high-deposition rate (>20 cm/kyr) sedimentary sections from sediment drifts in the western North Atlantic. For each site an age model covering the past 0.8-0.9 Ma has been developed. The time scales have a resolution of 10-20 kyr and are derived by tuning variations of estimated carbonate content to the orbital parameters precession and obliquity. Based on the similarity in the signature of proxy records and the spectral character of the time series, the sites are divided into two groups: precession cycles are better developed in carbonate records from a group of shallow sites (2164-2975 m water depth, Sites 1055-1058) while the deeper sites (2995-4775 m water depth, Sites 1060-1063) are characterized by higher spectral density in the obliquity band. The resulting time scales show excellent coherence with other dated carbonate and isotope records from low latitudes. Besides the typical Milankovitch cyclicity significant variance of the resulting carbonate time series is concentrated at millennial-scale changes with periods of about 12, 6, 4, 2.5, and 1.5 kyr. Comparisons of carbonate records from the Blake Bahama Outer Ridge and the Bermuda Rise reveal a remarkable similarity in the time and frequency domain indicating a basin-wide uniform sedimentation pattern during the last 0.9 Ma.
Resumo:
High-resolution records of alkenone-derived sea surface temperatures and elemental Ti/Ca ratios from a sediment core retrieved off northeastern Brazil (4° S) reveal short-term climate variability throughout the past 63,000 a. Large pulses of terrigenous sediment discharge, caused by increased precipitation in the Brazilian hinterland, coincide with Heinrich events and the Younger Dryas period. Terrigenous input maxima related to Heinrich events H6-H2 are characterized by rapid cooling of surface water ranging between 0.5 and 2° C. This signature is consistent with a climate model experiment where a reduction of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and related North Atlantic cooling causes intensification of NE trade winds and a southward movement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, resulting in enhanced precipitation off northeastern Brazil. During deglaciation the surface temperature evolution at the core site predominantly followed the Antarctic warming trend, including a cooling, prior to the Younger Dryas period. An abrupt temperature rise preceding the onset of the Bølling/Allerød transition agrees with model experiments suggesting a Southern Hemisphere origin for the abrupt resumption of the AMOC during deglaciation caused by Southern Ocean warming and associated with northward flow anomalies of the South Atlantic western boundary current.