The Distant neighbors — EU, Middle East, North Africa and the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership

The Barcelona Euro-Mediterranean Conference (1995) was intended to be a launching pad" for creating a new, innovative relationship between the EU-Fifteen and a selected set of non-member Middle Eastern and North African countries. The Barcelona Process was to become the European Union´s first attempt, of several, to create postmodern inclusive policy spheres as a way to deal with the post-enlargement problems of ´ins´ and outs´ in its immediate periphery. Nevertheless, in spite of geographical proximity, common problems and stated interest in creating amorphous EU borders in different sectors, the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership is today all but abandoned. This paper will examine some of the factors behind the current degeneration of the EU´s post-bipolar foreign policy strategy in the Mediterranean, by exploring the dialectic between the Union´s desire to expand its geopolitical, economic and cultural boundaries and the need to secure its territorial area (from migration, proliferation, social instability etc.). In the final part of the paper some suggestions for how to revive the relationship across the Mare Nostrum will be forwarded.

Past, present and future precipitation in the Middle East: insights from models and observations

Anthropogenic changes in precipitation pose a serious threat to society—particularly in regions such as the Middle East that already face serious water shortages. However, climate model projections of regional precipitation remain highly uncertain. Moreover, standard resolution climate models have particular difficulty representing precipitation in the Middle East, which is modulated by complex topography, inland water bodies and proximity to the Mediterranean Sea. Here we compare precipitation changes over the twenty-first century against both millennial variability during the Holocene and interannual variability in the present day. In order to assess the climate model and to make consistent comparisons, this study uses new regional climate model simulations of the past, present and future in conjunction with proxy and historical observations. We show that the pattern of precipitation change within Europe and the Middle East projected by the end of the twenty-first century has some similarities to that which occurred during the Holocene. In both cases, a poleward shift of the North Atlantic storm track and a weakening of the Mediterranean storm track appear to cause decreased winter rainfall in southern Europe and the Middle East and increased rainfall further north. In contrast, on an interannual time scale, anomalously dry seasons in the Middle East are associated with a strengthening and focusing of the storm track in the north Mediterranean and hence wet conditions throughout southern Europe.

Red Sea Region, North Africa, ca. 1730 (Raster Image)

This layer is a georeferenced raster image of the historic paper map entitled: Carte de l'Egypte, de la Nubie, de l'Abyssinie &c., par Guillaume de l'Isle, de l'Academie Royal a Paris. It was published by Chez Henri de Leth, a l'enseigne du Pecheur ca. 1730. Scale [ca. 1:9,250,000]. Covers the Red Sea region, North Africa including portions of the Middle East and Europe. Map in French.The image inside the map neatline is georeferenced to the surface of the earth and fit to the Africa Sinusoidal projected coordinate system. All map collar and inset information is also available as part of the raster image, including any inset maps, profiles, statistical tables, directories, text, illustrations, index maps, legends, or other information associated with the principal map. This map shows features such as drainage, major roads, cities and other human settlements, territorial boundaries, shoreline features, and more. Relief shown pictorially. This layer is part of a selection of digitally scanned and georeferenced historic maps from the Harvard Map Collection. These maps typically portray both natural and manmade features. The selection represents a range of originators, ground condition dates, scales, and map purposes.

Migration and diversity in Roman Britain: a multidisciplinary approach to immigrants in Roman York, England

Previous anthropological investigations at Trentholme Drive, in Roman York identified an unusual amount of cranial variation amongst the inhabitants, with some individuals suggested as having originated from the Middle East or North Africa. The current study investigates the validity of this assessment using modern anthropological methods to assess cranial variation in two groups: The Railway and Trentholme Drive. Strontium and oxygen isotope evidence derived from the dentition of 43 of these individuals was combined with the craniometric data to provide information on possible levels of migration and the range of homelands that may be represented. The results of the craniometric analysis indicated that the majority of the York population had European origins, but that 11% of the Trentholme Drive and 12% of The Railway study samples were likely of African decent. Oxygen analysis identified four incomers, three from areas warmer than the UK and one from a cooler or more continental climate. Although based on a relatively small sample of the overall population at York, this multidisciplinary approach made it possible to identify incomers, both men and women, from across the Empire. Evidence for possible second generation migrants was also suggested. The results confirm the presence of a heterogeneous population resident in York and highlight the diversity, rather than the uniformity, of the population in Roman Britain. Am J Phys Anthropol 140:546-561, 2009. (C) 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc

Egypt and the EU: where next? CEPS Commentary, 4 November 2013

EU diplomats are still struggling to keep abreast of events in Egypt. A reconstruction of the police state – bankrolled by Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE – is the exact opposite of what the EU tried to achieve under the Presidency of Mohamed Morsi, namely long-term stability based on respect for democracy and the rule of law. It is therefore perhaps surprising that the EU has so far not imposed any sanctions against members of the military regime led by General al-Sisi. Instead, it is trying to build an inclusive political dialogue to restore a democratic process. Is this what the EU should do? The answer is, quite plainly, ‘Yes’– at least for the moment.

The crisis in Iraq and the twists and turns of Turkish Middle East policy. OSW Commentary No. 142, 29.07.2014

The spectacular offensive by Islamic radicals in Iraq this June has led the country to the verge of collapse, and is another scene of the deep crisis in the Middle East, in which Turkey is entangled. The immediate consequence of this is a severe crisis of prestige after the kidnapping by terrorists of Turkish diplomats and Ankara’s inability to resolve the situation; in the long term consequences include escalation of the Kurdish problem, and a further increase in threats to the security of Turkey itself as well as the fundamental principles of its foreign policy. Both Ankara’s options and its political will to actively respond to the crisis are extremely limited. Yet again in recent years, the current crisis, the broader situation in the Middle East, and finally the position of Turkey in the region elude unambiguous assessments and forecasts – these are prevented by the scale and growth of the reappraisals and tensions in the region. The only undoubted fact is that Turkey is strategically and irreversibly entangled in the Middle East’s problems, which are an important factor affecting the transformation of the state which the ruling AKP is implementing; and in the near future, this state of affairs will only deepen.

Chlamydia trachomatis serotype A infections in the Amazon region of Brazil: prevalence, entry and dissemination

INTRODUCTION: Chlamydia infection is associated with debilitating human diseases including trachoma, pneumonia, coronary heart disease and urogenital diseases. Serotypes of C. trachomatis show a fair correlation with the group of diseases they cause, and their distribution follows a well-described geographic pattern. Serotype A, a trachoma-associated strain, is known for its limited dissemination in the Middle East and Northern Africa. However, knowledge on the spread of bacteria from the genus Chlamydia as well as the distribution of serotypes in Brazil is quite limited. METHODS: Blood samples of 1,710 individuals from ten human population groups in the Amazon region of Brazil were examined for antibodies to Chlamydia using indirect immunofluorescence and microimmunofluorescence assays. RESULTS: The prevalence of antibodies to Chlamydia ranged from 23.9% (Wayana-Apalai) to 90.7% (Awa-Guaja) with a mean prevalence of 50.2%. Seroreactivity was detected to C. pneumoniae and to all serotypes of C. trachomatis tested; furthermore, we report clear evidence of the as-yet-undescribed occurrence of serotype A of C. trachomatis. CONCLUSIONS: Specific seroreactivity not only accounts for the large extent of dissemination of C. trachomatis in the Amazon region of Brazil but also shows an expanded area of occurrence of serotype A outside the epidemiological settings previously described. Furthermore, these data suggest possible routes of Chlamydia introduction into the Amazon region from the massive human migration that occurred during the 1,700s.

The impact of FTAs on MENA trade in agricultural and industrial products

This paper analyses the impact of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) on Middle East and North African Countries (MENA) trade for the period 1994-2010. The analysis distinguishes between industrial and agricultural trade to take into account the different liberalisation schedules. An augmented gravity model is estimated using up-to-date panel data techniques to control for all time-invariant bilateral factors that influence bilateral trade as well as for the so-called multilateral resistance factors. We also control for the endogeneity of the agreements and test for self-selection bias due to the presence of zero trade in our sample. The main findings indicate that North-South-FTAs and South-South- FTAs have a differential impact in terms of increasing trade in MENA countries, with the former being more beneficial in terms of exports for MENA countries, but both showing greater global market integration. We also find that FTAs that include agricultural products, in which MENA countries have a clear comparative advantage, have more favourable effects for these countries than those only including industrial products. JEL code: F10, F15

A revision of the spider genera Chaetopelma ausserer 1871 and Nesiergus simon 1903 (Araneae, theraphosidae, ischnocolinae)

Chaetopelma Ausserer 1871 and Nesiergus Simon 1903 are revised. Cratorrhagus Simon 1891 is considered a junior synonym of Chaetopelma. Cratorrhagus tetramerus (Simon 1873) and the female of Cratorrhagus concolor (Simon 1873) are conspecific with C. olivaceum (C. L. Koch 1841). Ischnocolus gracilis Ausserer 1871, Ischnocolus syriacus Ausserer 1871, Chaetopelma shabati Hassan 1950 and Ischnocolus jerusalemensis Smith 1990 are also treated here as junior synonyms of C. olivaceum. Chaetopelma adenense Simon 1890 is proposed as a junior synonym of Ischnocolus jickelii L. Koch 1875. Chaetopelma gardineri Hirst 1911 is transferred to Nesiergus. Hence, Chaetopelma comprises three valid species: C. olivaceum (C. L. Koch 1841); C. karlamani Vollmer 1997; C. concolor (Simon 1873) n. comb. from the Middle East and northeastern Africa. Nesiergus, which appears endemic to the Seychelles archipelago, now comprises three valid species: N. gardineri (Hirst 1911) n. comb.; N. halophilus Benoit 1978; N. insulanus Simon 1903.

A diplomacia dos petrodólares: relações do Brasil com o mundo árabe (1973-1985)

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

West & North Africa, ca. 1710 (Raster Image)

This layer is a georeferenced raster image of the historic paper map entitled: Carte de la Barbarie, le [sic] la Nigritie et del la Guinée, par Guillaume de l'Isle de l'Academie Royale des Sciences. It was published by ex officina Nicolai Visscher, ca. 1710. Scale [ca.1:9,000,000]. Covers West and North Africa. Map in French.The image inside the map neatline is georeferenced to the surface of the earth and fit to the Africa Sinusoidal projected coordinate system. All map collar and inset information is also available as part of the raster image, including any inset maps, profiles, statistical tables, directories, text, illustrations, index maps, legends, or other information associated with the principal map. This map shows features such as drainage, cities and other human settlements, routes and roads, territorial boundaries, shoreline features, and more. Relief shown pictorially. Includes notes.This layer is part of a selection of digitally scanned and georeferenced historic maps from the Harvard Map Collection. These maps typically portray both natural and manmade features. The selection represents a range of originators, ground condition dates, scales, and map purposes.

West & North Africa, ca. 1730 (Raster Image)

This layer is a georeferenced raster image of the historic paper map entitled: Carte de la Barbarie, le la Nigritie et de la Guinée, par Guill[au]me Del'Isle, de l'Academie Royale des Sciences. It was published by Chez Jean Cóvens et Corneille Mortier, Geographes ca. 1730. Scale [ca.1:9,250,000]. Covers West and North Africa. Map in French.The image inside the map neatline is georeferenced to the surface of the earth and fit to the Africa Sinusoidal projected coordinate system. All map collar and inset information is also available as part of the raster image, including any inset maps, profiles, statistical tables, directories, text, illustrations, index maps, legends, or other information associated with the principal map. This map shows features such as drainage, cities and other human settlements, roads and routes, territorial boundaries, shoreline features, and more. Relief shown pictorially. Includes notes.This layer is part of a selection of digitally scanned and georeferenced historic maps from the Harvard Map Collection. These maps typically portray both natural and manmade features. The selection represents a range of originators, ground condition dates, scales, and map purposes.

Geopolitical shifts in the Eastern Mediterranean. Security Policy Brief No. 43, February 2013

Three major geopolitical events are putting the stability of the Eastern Mediterranean at risk. Most of the region is in a deep monetary and economic crisis. The Arab Spring is causing turmoil in the Levant and the Maghreb. Gas and oil discoveries, if not well managed, could further destabilise the region. At the same time, Russia and Turkey are staging a comeback. In the face of these challenges, the EU approaches the Greek sovereign debt crisis nearly exclusively from a financial and economic viewpoint. This brief argues that the EU has to develop a comprehensive strategy for the region, complementing its existing multilateral regional framework with bilateral agreements in order to secure its interests in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Russia’s Middle East policy after the Arab revolutions. OSW Commentary No. 59, 2011-07-26

Russia’s policy towards the Middle East is instrumental. Its activity in the region has been growing since the middle of the last decade, and its aim is to help Moscow achieve its objectives in other areas, particularly in its policies towards the US and Europe, as well as its energy policy. The establishment of these political influences constitutes a bargaining chip for Russia in its relations with the US. Russia’s participation in resolving conflicts is aimed at building up its image as a supra-regional power. Russia’s Middle East policy is a key element in its contacts with the Muslim world. At the same time, Russia’s policy in the region remains cautious – despite its return to the region, Russia has not decided to ‘play’ for the Middle East, and its position and role in the region remain limited. The balance of power in the Middle East has been shifting in the aftermath of the Arab revolutions. However, it does not seem that they have opened up larger opportunities for Russian policy in the region. The Russian elite has been divided in its assessment of the consequences of these events. One part of it has displayed scepticism, treating the revolutions rather as a threat than a chance to strengthen their own position. The revolutions were not seen as democratisation processes, but rather as a destabilisation of the region and as posing an increased danger from radical Islam. For the other part of the elite, the revolutions were the natural consequence of the social changes occurring in the region. This internal dispute made it difficult for Russia to present a cohesive approach to the Arab revolutions, and its stance was reactive. The defensive position which Moscow adopted showed that Russia did not have the potential to mould the political situation, either in the region as a whole or its individual countries; neither did it display any willingness to do so. What Moscow is doing is positioning itself in such a way so as not to spoil relations with any other actor in the region, and to be able to exploit any possible emerging opportunities in case of further-reaching changes.

Tourism in the Mediterranean: Scenarios up to 2030. MEDPRO Report No. 1/July 2011- (updated May 2013)

From 1990 to 2010, the 11 countries of the south-eastern Mediterranean region (Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Occupied Palestinian Territory, Syria, Tunisia and Turkey, hereafter SMCs) recorded the highest growth rates in inbound world tourism. In the same period, domestic tourism in these countries also increased rapidly, which is astonishing given the security risks, natural disasters, oil prices rises and economic uncertainties in the region. Even the 2008 financial crisis had no severe impact on this growth, confirming the resilience of tourism and the huge potential of the SMCs in this sector. The Arab Spring brought this trend to an abrupt halt in early 2011, but it may resume after 2014 with the gradual democratisation process, despite the economic slowdown of the European Union – its main market. This paper looks at whether this trend will continue up to 2030, and provides four different possible scenarios for the development of the tourism sector in SMCs for 2030: i) reference scenario, ii) common (cooperation) sustainable development scenario, iii) polarised (regional) development scenario and iv) failed development – decline and conflict – scenario. In all cases, international and domestic tourist arrivals will increase. However, three main factors will strongly influence the development of the tourism sector in the SMCs: security, competitiveness linked to the efficient use of ICT, and adjustment to climate change.