Coeficientes de incidência do dengue e sua relação com os diferenciais intra-urbanos segundo condições de vida no município do Natal, Rio Grande do Norte

This study sprang from the hypothesis that spatial variations in the morbidity rate for dengue fever within the municipality of Natal are related to intra-city socioeconomic and environmental variations. The objective of the project was to classify the different suburbs of Natal according to their living conditions and establish if there was any correlation between this classification and the incidence rate for dengue fever, with the aim of enabling public health planners to better control this disease. Data on population density, access to safe drinking water, rubbish collection, sewage disposal facilities, income level, education and the incidence of dengue fever during the years 2001 and 2003 was drawn from the Brazilian Demographic Census 2000 and from the Reportable Disease Notification System -SINAN. The study is presented here in the form of two papers, corresponding to the types of analysis performed: a classification of the urban districts into quartiles according to the living conditions which exist there, in the first article; and the incidence of dengue fever in each of these quartiles, in the second. By applying factorial analysis to the chosen socioeconomic and environmental indicators for the year 2000, a compound index of living condition (ICV) was obtained. On the basis of this index, it was possible to classify the urban districts into quartiles. On undertaking this grouping (paper 1), a heterogeneous distribution of living conditions was found across the city. As to the incidence rate for dengue fever (paper 2), it was discovered that the quartile identified as having the best living conditions presented incidence rates of 15.62 and 15.24 per 1000 inhabitants respectively in the years 2001 and 2003; whereas the quartile representing worst living conditions showed incidence rates of 25.10 and 10.32 for the comparable periods. The results suggest that dengue fever occurs in all social classes, and that its incidence is not related in any evident way to the chosen formula for living conditions

The past ecology of Abies alba provides new perspectives on future responses of silver fir forests to global warming

Paleoecology can provide valuable insights into the ecology of species that complement observation and experiment-based assessments of climate impact dynamics. New paleoecological records (e.g., pollen, macrofossils) from the Italian Peninsula suggest a much wider climatic niche of the important European tree species Abies alba (silver fir) than observed in its present spatial range. To explore this discrepancy between current and past distribution of the species, we analyzed climatic data (temperature, precipitation, frost, humidity, sunshine) and vegetation-independent paleoclimatic reconstructions (e.g., lake levels, chironomids) and use global coupled carbon-cycle climate (NCAR CSM1.4) and dynamic vegetation (LandClim) modeling. The combined evidence suggests that during the mid-Holocene (6000 years ago), prior to humanization of vegetation, A. alba formed forests under conditions that exceeded the modern (1961-1990) upper temperature limit of the species by 5-7°C (July means). Annual precipitation during this natural period was comparable to today (>700-800 mm), with drier summers and wetter winters. In the meso-Mediterranean to sub-Mediterranean forests A. alba co-occurred with thermophilous taxa such as Quercus ilex, Q. pubescens, Olea europaea, Phillyrea, Arbutus, Cistus, Tilia, Ulmus, Acer, Hedera helix, Ilex aquifolium, Taxus, and Vitis. Results from the last interglacial (ca. 130 000-115 000 BP), when human impact was negligible, corroborate the Holocene evidence. Thermophilous Mediterranean A. alba stands became extinct during the last 5000 years when land-use pressure and specifically excessive anthropogenic fire and browsing disturbance increased. Our results imply that the ecology of this key European tree species is not yet well understood. On the basis of the reconstructed realized climatic niche of the species, we anticipate that the future geographic range of A. alba may not contract regardless of migration success, even if climate should become significantly warmer than today with summer temperatures increasing by up to 5-7°C, as long as precipitation does not fall below 700-800 mm/yr, and anthropogenic disturbance (e.g., fire, browsing) does not become excessive. Our finding contradicts recent studies that projected range contractions under global-warming scenarios, but did not factor how millennia of human impacts reduced the realized climatic niche of A. alba.

Pollen records and age determination of site Bokanjacko Blato

In summary, one may conclude that human influence in the Bokanjac area started in the Eneolithic or Earlier Bronze Age - the third to second millennia Cal. BC. Traces of agriculture are weak or missing in the pollen diagram but grazing is indicated. Chestnut and walnut were introduced by humans to the area in classical times. These findings are in general agreement with the results of earlier studies at coastal sites north-west and south-east of Bokanjacko Blato.

Palynology of marine sediment cores from the West African coast

Seven sediment cores from the cruises of the "Meteor" and "Valdivia" were examined palynologically. The cores were retrieved from the lower continental slope in the area of between 33.5° N and 8° N, off the West African coast. Most of the cores contain sediments from the last Glacial and Interglacial period. In some cases, the Holocene sediments are missing. Some individual cores contain sediments also from earlier Glacial and Interglacial periods. The main reason for making this palynological study was to find out the differences between the vegetation of Glacial and Interglacial periods in those parts of West Africa which at present belong to the Mediterranean zone, the Sahara and the zones of the savannas and tropical forests. In today's Mediterranean vegetation zone at core 33.5° N, forests and deciduous forests in particular, are missing during Glacial conditions. Semi-deserts are found instead of these. In the early isotope stage 1, there is a very significant development of forests which contain evergreen oaks; this is the Mediterranean type of vegestation development. The Sahara type of vegetation development is shown in four cores from between 27° N and 19° N. The differences between Glacial and Interglacial periods are very small. It must be assumed therefore that in this latitudes, both Glacial and Interglacial conditions gave rise to desert generally. The results are in favour of a slightly more arid climate during Glacial and more humid one during Interglacial periods. The southern boundary of the Sahara and the adjacent savannas with grassland and tropical woods were situated more to the south during the Glacial periods than they were during the Interglacial ones. In front of today's savanna belt, it can be seen from the palynological results that there are considerable differences between the vegetation of Glacial and Interglacial periods. The woods are more important in Interglacial periods. During the Glacial periods these are replaced from north to south decreasingly by grassland (savanna and rainforest type of vegetation development). The southern limit of the Sahara during stage 2 was somewhat between 12° N and 8° N which is between 1.5 and 5 degrees in latitude further south than it i s today. Not only do these differences in climate and vegetation apply to the maximum of the last Glacial and for the Holocene, but they apparently apply also to the older Glacial and Interglacial periods, where they have been found in the profiles. The North African deset belt can be said to have expanded during Glacial times both towards the north and towards the south. All the available evidence of this study indicates that the grass land or the semi-desert of the Southern Europe cam einto connection with those of the N Africa; there could not have been any forest zone between them. The present study was also a good opportunity for investigating some of the basic marine palynological problems. The very well known overrepresentation of pollen grains of the genus Pinus in marine sediments can be traced as fa as 21° N. The present southern limit for the genus Pinus is on the Canaries and on the African continent as approximately 31° N. Highest values of Ephedra pollen grains even occur south of the main area of the present distribution of that genus. These does not seem to be any satisfactory explanation for this. In general, it would appear that the transport of pollen grains from the north is more important than transport from the south. The results so far, indicate strongly that further palynological studies are necessary. These should concentrate particularly on cores from between 33° N and 27° N as well as between 17° N and 10° N. It would also be useful to have a more detailed examination of sediments from the last Intergalcial period (substage 5 e). Absolute pollen counts and more general examination of surface samples would be desirable. Surface samples should be taken from the shelf down to the bottom of the continental slope in different latitudes.

Pollen analysis of surface sediment off northwest Africa

Over 100 samples of recent surface sediments from the bottomn of the Atlantic Ocean offshore NW Africa between 34° and 6° N have been analysed palynologically. The objective of this study was to reveal the relation between source areas, transport systems, and resulting distribution patterns of pollen and spores in marine sediments off NW Africa, in order to lay a sound foundation for the interpretation of pollen records of marine cores from this area. The clear zonation of the NW-African vegetation (due to the distinct climatic gradient) is helpful in determining main source areas, and the presence of some major wind belts facilitates the registration of the average course of wind trajectories. The present circulation pattern is driven by the intertropical front (ITCZ) which shifts over the continent between c. 22° N (summer position) and c. 4° N (winter position) in the course of the year. Determination of the period of main pollen release and the average atmospheric circulation pattern effective at that time of the years is of prime importance. The distribution patterns in recent marine sediments of pollen of a series of genera and families appear to record climatological/ecological variables, such as the trajectory of the NE trade, January trades, African Easterly Jet (Saharan Air Layer), the northernmost and southernmost position of the intertropical convergence zone, and the extent and latitudinal situation of the NW-African vegetation belt. Pollen analysis of a series of dated deep-sea cores taken between c. 35° and the equator off NW African enable the construction of paleo-distribution maps for time slices of the past, forming a register of paleoclimatological/paleoecological information.

Biostratigraphical investigations of Lago d'Averno, near Naples

Remains of diatoms, molluscs, ostracods, foraminifera and pollen exines preserved in the sediments of Lago d'Averno, a volcanic lake in the Phlegrean Fields west of Naples, allowed us to reconstruct the changes in the ecological conditions of the lake and of the vegetation around it for the period from 800 BC to 800 AD. Lago d'Averno was at first a freshwater lake, temporarily influenced by volcanic springs. Salinity increased slowly during Greek times as a result of subsidence of the surrounding land. Saline conditions developed only after the lake was connected with the sea by a canal, when Portus Julius was built in 37 BC. The first post-Roman period of uplift ended with a short freshwater phase during the 7th century after Christ. Deciduous oakwoods around the lake was transformed into a forest of evergreen oaks in Greek times and thrived there - apparently almost uninfluenced by man - until it was felled, when the Avernus was incorporated into the new Roman harbour in 37 BC, to construct a shipyard and other military buildings there. Land-use was never more intense than during Roman times and weakest in Greek and Early Roman times, when the Avernus was considered a holy place, the entrance to the underworld.

Pollen record and dating of a sediment profile from Lake Voulkaria, Greece

A palynological investigation of a Holocene profile from Lake Voulkaria, western Greece, was carried out as a contribution to the environmental history of the coastal area of northwestern Acarnania and the Classical city of Palairos. It shows that deciduous oaks dominated the natural vegetation of the area throughout the Holocene. Until ca. 7000 B.C. Pistacia occurred abundantly, while other evergreen woody taxa were rare. At ca. 6300 B.C. an expansion of Carpinus orientalis/Ostrya can be observed. Around ca. 5300 B.C. spreading of Erica indicates a change to a drier climate and/or first human impact. Since ca. 3500 B.C. an increase of evergreen shrubs now clearly indicates land-use. The foundation of the Classical city of Palairos led to a temporary expansion of Phillyrea maquis. Within this period, molluscs of brackish water indicate the use of the lake as a harbour after the construction of a connection to the sea. The deciduous Quercus woodland recovered when human impact decreased in the area, and lasted until modern times.