Ensemble prediction distribution maps of macroalgae for current conditions and four climate change scenarios and high resultion bathymetry for Potter Cove, WAP, Antarctica

Species distribution models (SDM) predict species occurrence based on statistical relationships with environmental conditions. The R-package biomod2 which includes 10 different SDM techniques and 10 different evaluation methods was used in this study. Macroalgae are the main biomass producers in Potter Cove, King George Island (Isla 25 de Mayo), Antarctica, and they are sensitive to climate change factors such as suspended particulate matter (SPM). Macroalgae presence and absence data were used to test SDMs suitability and, simultaneously, to assess the environmental response of macroalgae as well as to model four scenarios of distribution shifts by varying SPM conditions due to climate change. According to the averaged evaluation scores of Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC) and True scale statistics (TSS) by models, those methods based on a multitude of decision trees such as Random Forest and Classification Tree Analysis, reached the highest predictive power followed by generalized boosted models (GBM) and maximum-entropy approaches (Maxent). The final ensemble model used 135 of 200 calculated models (TSS > 0.7) and identified hard substrate and SPM as the most influencing parameters followed by distance to glacier, total organic carbon (TOC), bathymetry and slope. The climate change scenarios show an invasive reaction of the macroalgae in case of less SPM and a retreat of the macroalgae in case of higher assumed SPM values.

Mélanges historiques, littéraires, bibliographiques,

--t. 2. L'Association des étudiants en droit de Rennes avant 1790, par M.L. de La Sicotière. Un poète breton disciple de Ronsard-François Auffray, par M.O. de Gourcuff. Le manuscrit du sieur de Caillon (1607), par M.E. de Bréhier. Le cours de Rennes au XVIIe siècle, stances du sieur de Cantenac (1662). Les imprimeurs de Quimper au XVIIIe siècle, notes et documents, par M.F. Du Bois Saint-Sévrin. Des livres et de leur valeur dans l'évêché de Quimper avant 1789, par M.F. Audran. Prix des livres en Bretagne au XIVe et au XVe siècle (documents inédits). Les deux saints Caradec, légendes latines inédites, avec traduction française et éclaircissements, par M.A. de La Borderie. Documents inédits sur Gilles de Bretagne (1443-1445). La fête des orfèvres à Nantes, en 1508. Instruction pour la recherche et l'exploration des monuments historiques adressée à l'intendant de Bretagne vers le milieu du XVIIIe siècle.

[¿La idea de la paz perpetua es realizable?] : : Discurso leído en la Universidad Central en el solemne acto de recibir ... /

Tesis de la Universidad Central (Madrid), Facultad de Derecho, leída el 29-09-1858.

Ecologia e história natural de população Hemidactylus agrius (Squamata: Gekkonidae) em área de Caatinga, com avaliação da distribuição das espécies nativas do gênero no nordeste do Brasil

The genus Hemidactylus Oken, 1817 has cosmopolite distribution, with three species occurring in Brazil, two of them native, H. brasilianus and H. agrius, and one exotic, H. mabouia. Considering the studies about ecology of lizards conducted in the Ecological Station of the Seridó, from 2001 to 2011, this study aimed (1) to re-evaluate the occurrence of the species of Hemidactylus in this ESEC; (2) to analyze ecological and biological aspects of the H. agrius population; and (3) to investigate the current and potential distribution of the native species of the genus in northeastern Brazil, analyzing the suitability of ESEC to this taxon. For the first two objectives, a sampling area consisting of five transects of 200 x 20 m, was inspected in alternating daily shifts for three consecutive days, from August 2012 to August 2013. For the latter objective, occurrence points of H. agrius and H. brasilianus from literature and from the database of Herpetological Collections of the UFRN and the UNICAMP were consulted to build predictive maps via the Maximum Entropy algorithm (MaxEnt). In ESEC Seridó, 62 H. agrius individuals were collected (25 females, 18 males and 19 juveniles), and two neonates were obtained from a communal nest incubated in the laboratory. No record was made for the other two species of the genus. Hemidactylus agrius demonstrated to be a nocturnal species specialized in habitats with rocky outcrops; but this species is generalist regarding microhabitat use. In the population studied, females had an average body length greater than males, and showed higher frequencies of caudal autotomy. Regarding diet, H. agrius is a moderately generalist species that consumes arthropods, especially insect larvae, Isoptera and Araneae; and vertebrates, with a case of cannibalism registered in the population. With respect to seasonal differences, only the number of food items ingested differed between seasons. The diet was similar between sexes, but ontogenetic differences were recorded for the total volume and maximum length of the food items. Significant relationships were found between lizard body/head size measurements and the maximum length of prey consumed. Cases of polydactyly and tail bifurcation were recorded in the population, with frequencies of 1.6% and 3.1%, respectively. In relation xv to the occurrence points of the native species, 27 were identified, 14 for H. agrius and 13 for H. brasilianus. The first species presented restricted distribution, while the second showed a wide distribution. In both models generated, the ESEC Seridó area showed medium to high suitability. The results of this study confirm the absence of H. brasilianus and H. mabouia this ESEC, and reveal H. agrius as a dietary opportunist and cannibal species. Further, the results confirm the distribution patterns shown by native species of Hemidactylus, and point ESEC Seridó as an area of probable occurrence for the species of the genus, the establishing of H. brasilianus and H. mabouia are probably limited by biotic factors, a fact yet little understood

Latitudinal shift in thermal niche breadth results from thermal release during a climate-mediated range expansion

Funded by Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services in a Changing Climate Wenner-Gren Foundation Swedish Research Council The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences Stiftelsen Anna-Greta Holger Crafoords Fund The Crafoord Foundation

Latitudinal shift in thermal niche breadth results from thermal release during a climate-mediated range expansion

Funded by Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services in a Changing Climate Wenner-Gren Foundation Swedish Research Council The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences Stiftelsen Anna-Greta Holger Crafoords Fund The Crafoord Foundation

Latitudinal shift in thermal niche breadth results from thermal release during a climate-mediated range expansion

Funded by Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services in a Changing Climate Wenner-Gren Foundation Swedish Research Council The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences Stiftelsen Anna-Greta Holger Crafoords Fund The Crafoord Foundation

Projected responses of North American grassland songbirds to climate change and habitat availability at their northern range limits in Alberta, Canada

Across North America, grassland songbirds have undergone steep population declines over recent decades, commonly attributed to agricultural intensification. Understanding the potential interactions between the impacts of climate change on the future distributions of these species and the availability of suitable vegetation for nesting can support improved risk assessments and conservation planning for this group of species. We used North American bioclimatic niche models to examine future changes in suitable breeding climate for 15 grassland songbird species at their current northern range limits along the boreal forest–prairie ecotone in Alberta, Canada. Our climate suitability projections, combined with the current distribution of native and tame pasture and cropland in Alberta, suggest that some climate-mediated range expansion of grassland songbirds in Alberta is possible. For six of the eight species projected to experience expansions of suitable climate area in Alberta, this suitable climate partly overlaps the current distribution of suitable land cover. Additionally, for more than half of the species examined, most of the area of currently suitable climate was projected to remain suitable to the end of the century, highlighting the importance of Alberta for the long-term persistence of these species. Some northern prairie-endemic species exhibited substantial projected northward shifts of both the northern and southern edges of the area of suitable climate. Baird’s Sparrow (Ammodramus bairdii) and Sprague’s Pipit (Anthus spragueii), both at-risk grassland specialists, are predicted to have limited climate stability within their current ranges, and their expansion into new areas of suitable climate may be limited by the availability of suitable land cover. Our results highlight the importance of the preservation and restoration of remaining suitable grassland habitat within areas of projected climate stability and beyond current northern range limits for the long-term persistence of many grassland songbird species in the face of climate change.

Modelled niche centres and niche breadths of open ocean phytoplankton taxa

This data contains realized ecological niche estimates of phytoplankton taxa within the mixed layer of the open ocean. The estimates are based on data from the MARine Ecosystem DATa (MAREDAT) initiative, and cover five phytoplankton functional types: coccolithophores (40 species), diatoms (87 species), diazotrophs (two genera), Phaeocystis (two species) and picophytoplankton (two genera). Considered as major niche dimensions were temperature (°C), mixed layer depth (MLD; m), nitrate concentration (µmoles/L), mean photosynthetically active radiation in the mixed layer (MLPAR; µmoles/m**2/s), salinity, and the excess of phosphate versus nitrate relative to the Redfield ratio (P*; µmoles/L). For each niche dimension at a time, conditions at presence locations of the taxa were contrasted with conditions in 12 000 randomly sampled points from the open ocean using MaxEnt models. We used the quartiles of the response curves of these models to parameterize realized niche centers and niche breadths: the median (q50) of the response curves was considered to be the niche center and the distance between the lower quartile (q25) and the upper quartile (q75) was used as a rough estimate of niche breadth. We only reported meaningful niche estimates, i.e., estimates based on MaxEnt models that perform significantly better than random, as indicated by an area under the curve (AUC) score significantly larger than 0.5.

The invasion risk in the Pacific Northwest of two closely related grass species in the Genus Cortaderia

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Avian Cholera emergence in Arctic-nesting northern Common Eiders: using community-based, participatory surveillance to delineate disease outbreak patterns and predict transmission risk

Emerging infectious diseases are a growing concern in wildlife conservation. Documenting outbreak patterns and determining the ecological drivers of transmission risk are fundamental to predicting disease spread and assessing potential impacts on population viability. However, evaluating disease in wildlife populations requires expansive surveillance networks that often do not exist in remote and developing areas. Here, we describe the results of a community-based research initiative conducted in collaboration with indigenous harvesters, the Inuit, in response to a new series of Avian Cholera outbreaks affecting Common Eiders (Somateria mollissima) and other comingling species in the Canadian Arctic. Avian Cholera is a virulent disease of birds caused by the bacterium Pasteurella multocida. Common Eiders are a valuable subsistence resource for Inuit, who hunt the birds for meat and visit breeding colonies during the summer to collect eggs and feather down for use in clothing and blankets. We compiled the observations of harvesters about the growing epidemic and with their assistance undertook field investigation of 131 colonies distributed over >1200 km of coastline in the affected region. Thirteen locations were identified where Avian Cholera outbreaks have occurred since 2004. Mortality rates ranged from 1% to 43% of the local breeding population at these locations. Using a species-habitat model (Maxent), we determined that the distribution of outbreak events has not been random within the study area and that colony size, vegetation cover, and a measure of host crowding in shared wetlands were significantly correlated to outbreak risk. In addition, outbreak locations have been spatially structured with respect to hypothesized introduction foci and clustered along the migration corridor linking Arctic breeding areas with wintering areas in Atlantic Canada. At present, Avian Cholera remains a localized threat to Common Eider populations in the Arctic; however expanded, community-based surveillance will be required to track disease spread.

Using satellite telemetry and environmental niche modelling to inform conservation targets for a long-distance migratory raptor in its wintering grounds

Understanding the ecology of migratory birds during the non-breeding season is necessary for ensuring their conservation. Using satellite telemetry data we describe winter ranging behaviour and movements of pallid harriers Circus macrourus that bred in Kazakhstan. We developed an ecological niche model for the species in Africa, to identify the most suitable wintering areas for pallid harriers and the importance of habitat in determining the location of those areas. We also assessed how well represented suitable areas are in the network of protected areas. Individual harriers showed relatively high fidelity to wintering areas but with potential for interannual changes. The ecological niche model highlighted the importance of open habitats with natural vegetation. Most suitable areas for the species were located in eastern Africa. Suitable areas had a patchy distribution but were relatively well included in the network of protected areas. The preferential use of habitats with natural vegetation by wintering pallid harriers and the patchiness of the most suitable areas highlight the harrier's vulnerability to land-use changes and the associated loss of natural vegetation in Africa. Conservation of harriers could be enhanced by preserving natural grasslands within protected areas and improving habitat management in the human-influenced portions of the species’ core wintering areas.

Détermination des niches écologiques du phytoplancton à partir de données in situ du lac Montjoie

Le rôle central du phytoplancton à la base de la chaîne trophique aquatique motive une compréhension étayée des facteurs pouvant faire varier les populations et la composition des populations de phytoplancton. Cette compréhension est d'autant plus importante dans le contexte actuel, puisque nous savons que l'humain influence le climat et les milieux aquatiques par sa présence et ses activités. Nous tentons donc, dans notre étude, de déterminer les variables environnementales importantes qui dictent les changements de taille et de composition de la communauté de phytoplancton à l'échelle d'un lac et d'en déduire les niches réalisées des différentes espèces du lac. L'utilisation d'une station mobile de manière verticale dans le lac Montjoie (Saint-Denis-de-Brompton) a permis de collecter des données in situ à haute fréquence et résolution temporelle caractérisant la colonne d'eau. Combinée à ces mesures, une banque de données sur l'abondance de différentes catégories de phytoplancton a été créée à l'aide d'un cytomètre en flux imageur (IFCB) et d'un programme de reconnaissance d'images qui lui est associé. En combinant ces données nous avons déterminé que la température moyenne au-dessus de la thermocline et que la profondeur limite de chlorophylle (2 écarts-types sous le maximum de chlorophylle) étaient les 2 variables (parmi les variables mesurées) les plus appropriées pour déterminer les niches réalisées de nos catégories de phytoplancton. À l'aide de ces 2 variables, nous avons pu déterminer les niches réalisées d'une trentaine de catégories présentes dans notre lac. Les niches ont été déterminées à la fois sur les données d'abondance et sur les données de taux de croissance nette à l'aide de deux méthodes différentes, soit l'analyse canonique des correspondances (CCA) et la maximisation de l'entropie d'information (MaxEnt). Ce sont finalement les niches déterminées avec les taux de croissance nette qui sont les plus pertinentes. Les deux méthodes ont donné des résultats semblables, mais c'est MaxEnt qui est la plus versatile pour l'ajout de nouvelles variables explicatives et c'est donc celle-ci que nous privilégierons dans le futur.

A maximum entropy approach to disturbed ecosystems

The current climate crisis requires a comprehensive understanding of biodiversity to acknowledge how ecosystems’ responses to anthropogenic disturbances may result in feedback that can either mitigate or exacerbate global warming. Although ecosystems are dynamic and macroecological patterns change drastically in response to disturbance, dynamic macroecology has received insufficient attention and theoretical formalisation. In this context, the maximum entropy principle (MaxEnt) could provide an effective inference procedure to study ecosystems. Since the improper usage of entropy outside its scope often leads to misconceptions, the opening chapter will clarify its meaning by following its evolution from classical thermodynamics to information theory. The second chapter introduces the study of ecosystems from a physicist’s viewpoint. In particular, the MaxEnt Theory of Ecology (METE) will be the cornerstone of the discussion. METE predicts the shapes of macroecological metrics in relatively static ecosystems using constraints imposed by static state variables. However, in disturbed ecosystems with macroscale state variables that change rapidly over time, its predictions tend to fail. In the final chapter, DynaMETE is therefore presented as an extension of METE from static to dynamic. By predicting how macroecological patterns are likely to change in response to perturbations, DynaMETE can contribute to a better understanding of disturbed ecosystems’ fate and the improvement of conservation and management of carbon sinks, like forests. Targeted strategies in ecosystem management are now indispensable to enhance the interdependence of human well-being and the health of ecosystems, thus avoiding climate change tipping points.