Alteração precoce da matriz extracelular e parâmetros diastólicos na síndrome metabólica

FUNDAMENTOS: Síndrome Metabólica (SM) está associada com maior risco cardiovascular, porém não está claro se as alterações miocárdicas presentes nessa condição, como a disfunção diastólica, são consequência de mecanismos sistêmicos ou de efeitos diretos no miocárdio. OBJETIVOS: Comparar função diastólica, biomarcadores de atividade da Matriz Extracelular (MEC), inflamação e estresse hemodinâmico, em pacientes com SM e controles saudáveis. MÉTODOS: Pacientes com SM (n = 76) e controles saudáveis (n = 30) foram avaliados clinicamente e submetidos a exame ecocardiográfico e mensuração dos níveis plasmáticos de metaloproteinase-9 (MMP9), inibidor tecidual da metaloproteinase-1 (TIMP1), proteína C reativa ultrassensível (PCR-us), resistência insulínica (HOMA-RI) e NT-proBNP. RESULTADOS: O grupo SM apresentou menor onda E' (10,1 ± 3,0 cm/s vs. 11,9 ± 2,6 cm/s, p = 0,005), maiores valores para onda A (63,4 ± 14,1 vs. 53,1 ± 8,9 cm/s, p < 0,001), razão E/E'(8,0 ± 2,2 vs. 6,3 ± 1,2; p < 0,001), MMP9 (502,9 ± 237,1 vs. 330,4 ± 162,7 ng/mL, p < 0,001), PCR-us (p = 0,001) e HOMA-RI (p < 0,001), sem diferença nos níveis de TIMP1 e NT-proBNP. Na análise multivariada, apenas MMP9 foi independentemente associada a SM. CONCLUSÃO: Pacientes com SM apresentaram diferenças em medidas ecocardiográficas de função diastólica, na atividade da MEC, PCR-us e HOMA-RI em relação aos controles. Porém, somente MMP9 foi independentemente associada com SM. Esses achados sugerem que os efeitos precoces da SM sobre a atividade da MEC podem não ser detectados nas medidas ecocardiográficas de função diastólica usuais.

Influência da época de seleção do rebento sobre o desenvolvimento e produção da planta matriz de bananeira (Musa cavendishii) cultivar nanicão

No presente trabalho foram feitos os tratamentos: planta matriz sem rebentos; planta matriz com rebentos de janeiro, março e maio e testemunha com todos os rebentos, sendo estudada sua influência no desenvolvimento e produção da planta matriz de bananeira. Os resultados mostraram diferença significativa entre os tratamentos, com relação ao número de dias do plantio ao florescimento, ciclo de produção, número de folhas na colheita e peso do cacho. Não houve diferença significativa em relação ao diâmetro do pseudo-caule no florescimento e colheita, número de pencas e frutos.

Acumulação de matéria seca e micronutrientes pela planta matriz da bananeira cv. prata (Musa AAB, subgrupo prata) em diferentes estádios de desenvolvimento

Visando estabelecer a curva de crescimento da matéria seca, marcha de absorção, quantidade exportada e reciclada de boro, zinco e cobre, instalou-se um ensaio no Estado do Espírito Santo, em solo cambissólico distrófico com declividade média de 40%. Sorteou-se três plantas matrizes, bimensalmente até 300 dias e mensalmente até 465 dias após o plantio, que foram separadas em folha, pecíolo, pseudo-caule, rizoma, engaço, botão floral e fruto. Determinou-se a massa de matéria seca e o teor de micronutrientes destes órgãos, cujos dados foram ajustados em programa de regressão, obtendo-se as curvas de acumulação de matéria seca e de absorção dos micronutrientes. Dos resultados conclui-se que: a absorção do boro, zinco e cobre pelos órgãos estudados, acompanha a acumulação de matéria seca, exceto o cobre, no pecíolo; 70% dos micronutrientes analisados são absorvidos a partir de 240 dias após o plantio; ocorre uma razão de absorção de 5 Zn, 2,5 B, 1 Cu; podem ser exportados com a colheita cerca de 10% B, 5,5% Zn e 3% Cu.

The Analysis of interval censoring and double censoring via Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

L'Anàlisi de la supervivència s'utilitza en diferents camps per analitzar el temps transcorregut entre dos esdeveniments. El que distingeix l'anàlisi de la supervivència d'altres àrees de l'estadística és que les dades normalment estan censurades. La censura en un interval apareix quan l'esdeveniment final d'interès no és directament observable i només se sap que el temps de fallada està en un interval concret. Un esquema de censura més complex encara apareix quan tant el temps inicial com el temps final estan censurats en un interval. Aquesta situació s'anomena doble censura. En aquest article donem una descripció formal d'un mètode bayesà paramètric per a l'anàlisi de dades censurades en un interval i dades doblement censurades així com unes indicacions clares de la seva utilització o pràctica. La metodologia proposada s'ilustra amb dades d'una cohort de pacients hemofílics que es varen infectar amb el virus VIH a principis dels anys 1980's.

Modeling sequencing errors by combining Hidden Markov models.

Among the largest resources for biological sequence data is the large amount of expressed sequence tags (ESTs) available in public and proprietary databases. ESTs provide information on transcripts but for technical reasons they often contain sequencing errors. Therefore, when analyzing EST sequences computationally, such errors must be taken into account. Earlier attempts to model error prone coding regions have shown good performance in detecting and predicting these while correcting sequencing errors using codon usage frequencies. In the research presented here, we improve the detection of translation start and stop sites by integrating a more complex mRNA model with codon usage bias based error correction into one hidden Markov model (HMM), thus generalizing this error correction approach to more complex HMMs. We show that our method maintains the performance in detecting coding sequences.

Which screening strategy using BMD measurements would be most cost effective for hip fracture prevention in elderly women? A decision analysis based on a Markov model.

INTRODUCTION: Hip fractures are responsible for excessive mortality, decreasing the 5-year survival rate by about 20%. From an economic perspective, they represent a major source of expense, with direct costs in hospitalization, rehabilitation, and institutionalization. The incidence rate sharply increases after the age of 70, but it can be reduced in women aged 70-80 years by therapeutic interventions. Recent analyses suggest that the most efficient strategy is to implement such interventions in women at the age of 70 years. As several guidelines recommend bone mineral density (BMD) screening of postmenopausal women with clinical risk factors, our objective was to assess the cost-effectiveness of two screening strategies applied to elderly women aged 70 years and older. METHODS: A cost-effectiveness analysis was performed using decision-tree analysis and a Markov model. Two alternative strategies, one measuring BMD of all women, and one measuring BMD only of those having at least one risk factor, were compared with the reference strategy "no screening". Cost-effectiveness ratios were measured as cost per year gained without hip fracture. Most probabilities were based on data observed in EPIDOS, SEMOF and OFELY cohorts. RESULTS: In this model, which is mostly based on observed data, the strategy "screen all" was more cost effective than "screen women at risk." For one woman screened at the age of 70 and followed for 10 years, the incremental (additional) cost-effectiveness ratio of these two strategies compared with the reference was 4,235 euros and 8,290 euros, respectively. CONCLUSION: The results of this model, under the assumptions described in the paper, suggest that in women aged 70-80 years, screening all women with dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) would be more effective than no screening or screening only women with at least one risk factor. Cost-effectiveness studies based on decision-analysis trees maybe useful tools for helping decision makers, and further models based on different assumptions should be performed to improve the level of evidence on cost-effectiveness ratios of the usual screening strategies for osteoporosis.

Realised and Optimal Monetary Policy Rules in an Estimated Markov-Switching DSGE Model of the United Kingdom

This paper investigates underlying changes in the UK economy over the past thirtyfive years using a small open economy DSGE model. Using Bayesian analysis, we find UK monetary policy, nominal price rigidity and exogenous shocks, are all subject to regime shifting. A model incorporating these changes is used to estimate the realised monetary policy and derive the optimal monetary policy for the UK. This allows us to assess the effectiveness of the realised policy in terms of stabilising economic fluctuations, and, in turn, provide an indication of whether there is room for monetary authorities to further improve their policies.

Adaptive Continuous time Markov Chain Approximation Model to General Jump-Diusions

We propose a non-equidistant Q rate matrix formula and an adaptive numerical algorithm for a continuous time Markov chain to approximate jump-diffusions with affine or non-affine functional specifications. Our approach also accommodates state-dependent jump intensity and jump distribution, a flexibility that is very hard to achieve with other numerical methods. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test shows that the proposed Markov chain transition density converges to the one given by the likelihood expansion formula as in Ait-Sahalia (2008). We provide numerical examples for European stock option pricing in Black and Scholes (1973), Merton (1976) and Kou (2002).

Asset Prices, Business Cycles, and Markov-Perfect Fiscal Policy when Agents are Risk-Sensitive

We study a business cycle model in which a benevolent fiscal authority must determine the optimal provision of government services, while lacking credibility, lump-sum taxes, and the ability to bond finance deficits. Households and the fiscal authority have risk sensitive preferences. We find that outcomes are affected importantly by the household's risk sensitivity, but not by the fiscal authority's. Further, while household risk-sensitivity induces a strong precautionary saving motive, which raises capital and lowers the return on assets, its effects on fluctuations and the business cycle are generally small, although more pronounced for negative shocks. Holding the stochastic steady state constant, increases in household risk-sensitivity lower the risk-free rate and raise the return on equity, increasing the equity premium. Finally, although risk-sensitivity has little effect on the provision of government services, it does cause the fiscal authority to lower the income tax rate. An additional contribution of this paper is to present a method for computing Markov-perfect equilibria in models where private agents and the government are risk-sensitive decisionmakers.

Computing Markov-Perfect Optimal Policies in Business-Cycle Models

Time-inconsistency is an essential feature of many policy problems (Kydland and Prescott, 1977). This paper presents and compares three methods for computing Markov-perfect optimal policies in stochastic nonlinear business cycle models. The methods considered include value function iteration, generalized Euler-equations, and parameterized shadow prices. In the context of a business cycle model in which a scal authority chooses government spending and income taxation optimally, while lacking the ability to commit, we show that the solutions obtained using value function iteration and generalized Euler equations are somewhat more accurate than that obtained using parameterized shadow prices. Among these three methods, we show that value function iteration can be applied easily, even to environments that include a risk-sensitive scal authority and/or inequality constraints on government spending. We show that the risk-sensitive scal authority lowers government spending and income-taxation, reducing the disincentive households face to accumulate wealth.

Intestinal Helminthiasis and Anaemia in Youngsters from Matriz da Luz, District of São Lourenço da Mata, State of Pernambuco, Brazil

A group of youngsters (4-18 years old) in northeast Brazil was studied to establish the prevalence of anaemia and intestinal parasitism, as well as to analyze the correlation between them. Two criteria were used to determine the state of anaemia, the level of haemoglobin and the mean of corpuscular volume. The first was considered a single criterion and the second an associated criteria, used in an attempt to correlate anaemia with iron deficiency. The prevalence of intestinal parasitism was 93%, while the prevalence of anaemia was 43.1% and 16.1% according to the criteria employed (single or associated respectively). Anaemia was significantly associated with both sex and age. No significant statistical difference was observed when the association was made between each parasite and anaemia even with those more related to anaemia.

Discrete time Non-homogeneous Semi-Markov Processes applied to Models for Disability Insurance

In this paper, we present a stochastic model for disability insurance contracts. The model is based on a discrete time non-homogeneous semi-Markov process (DTNHSMP) to which the backward recurrence time process is introduced. This permits a more exhaustive study of disability evolution and a more efficient approach to the duration problem. The use of semi-Markov reward processes facilitates the possibility of deriving equations of the prospective and retrospective mathematical reserves. The model is applied to a sample of contracts drawn at random from a mutual insurance company.