Previsão do índice bovespa por meio de redes neurais artificiais: uma análise comparada aos métodos tradicionais de séries de tempo

Forecast is the basis for making strategic, tactical and operational business decisions. In financial economics, several techniques have been used to predict the behavior of assets over the past decades.Thus, there are several methods to assist in the task of time series forecasting, however, conventional modeling techniques such as statistical models and those based on theoretical mathematical models have produced unsatisfactory predictions, increasing the number of studies in more advanced methods of prediction. Among these, the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) are a relatively new and promising method for predicting business that shows a technique that has caused much interest in the financial environment and has been used successfully in a wide variety of financial modeling systems applications, in many cases proving its superiority over the statistical models ARIMA-GARCH. In this context, this study aimed to examine whether the ANNs are a more appropriate method for predicting the behavior of Indices in Capital Markets than the traditional methods of time series analysis. For this purpose we developed an quantitative study, from financial economic indices, and developed two models of RNA-type feedfoward supervised learning, whose structures consisted of 20 data in the input layer, 90 neurons in one hidden layer and one given as the output layer (Ibovespa). These models used backpropagation, an input activation function based on the tangent sigmoid and a linear output function. Since the aim of analyzing the adherence of the Method of Artificial Neural Networks to carry out predictions of the Ibovespa, we chose to perform this analysis by comparing results between this and Time Series Predictive Model GARCH, developing a GARCH model (1.1).Once applied both methods (ANN and GARCH) we conducted the results' analysis by comparing the results of the forecast with the historical data and by studying the forecast errors by the MSE, RMSE, MAE, Standard Deviation, the Theil's U and forecasting encompassing tests. It was found that the models developed by means of ANNs had lower MSE, RMSE and MAE than the GARCH (1,1) model and Theil U test indicated that the three models have smaller errors than those of a naïve forecast. Although the ANN based on returns have lower precision indicator values than those of ANN based on prices, the forecast encompassing test rejected the hypothesis that this model is better than that, indicating that the ANN models have a similar level of accuracy . It was concluded that for the data series studied the ANN models show a more appropriate Ibovespa forecasting than the traditional models of time series, represented by the GARCH model

Qualidade de vida de pessoas com úlcera venosa: associação dos aspectos sociodemográficos, de saúde, assistência e clínicos da lesão

Venous ulcer (VU) is a lower limbs injury resulting from inadequate return of venous blood in feet or legs. Although it is not a deadly disease, it causes chronic wounds, which seriously undermine patients´ quality of life (QOL) and sometimes leads to drastic family, social, economic and psychological changes. In this sense, there are several aspects that may influence the venous ulcers patients´ QOL. The study´s objective aimed on the association of socio-demographic and health, health care and clinical injury on UV patients‟ QOL. Analytical studies, which consider the complexity of factors involved in changes in UV patients‟ QOL has a cross-sectional and quantitative approach. The HUOL Ethics Committee approved this project (n.279/09). The collection of data lasted a period of 3 months in 2010 and it took place at the clinic of Angiology at Hospital Universitário Onofre Lopes (HUOL). The data sample consisted of 60 patients treated by UV angiologists in the HUOL Surgical Clinic. The results were analyzed with SPSS 15.0 by descriptive and inferential statistics. The study was based on UV patients that were predominantly female, average age of 61.4 years, that had low education level and low family income, with occupations requiring long periods of standing or sitting, but mostly retired, unemployed or laid off due to the disease and/or due to chronic diseases associated with the UV. The study took also into consideration patients that used inappropriate products, that were improperly treated by a professional caregiver, that lacked of adequate guidance and compression therapy, that performed no lifting of the lower limbs and regular exercise, that the time of injury were greater than or equal to six months, that were missing specific laboratory tests. The study‟s reference were on recurrent lesions, medium to large lesions area, bed of the lesion (injuries) with fibrin and/or necrosis, with amount of exudate with medium to large, odorless and no signs of infection, with tissue loss between 1st and 2nd degree, without collecting swab or biopsy and with pain. In general, QOL of researched individuals were considered low, the maximum score was 69 points, which the areas that were mostly influenced were the total scores of QOL functional capacity (0.021), emotional (0.000) and social functioning (0.080). Of the 60 individuals, 53.3% had scores between 40 and 69 points in SF-36, and they had the best scores in sociodemographic and health variables (ρ = 0.049). In respect to the assistance and injury characteristics, patients who scored between 40 and 69 points in SF-36 had better scores on these characteristics. By combining the socio-demographic variables, health, and handling characteristics of the injury, we observed a significant difference (ρ = 0.032) when linking them with the QOL total scores. When analyzing separately the domains of the SF-36 scores on the quality of life, we find that the areas that showed statistical significance were functional ability (ρ = 0.035), appearance (ρ = 0.019), emotional (ρ = 0.000), and mental health (ρ = 0.050). Among the socio-demographic characteristics studied, gender and marital status contributed more to the reduction of QOL and among the variables of assistance and the injury, orientation, reference and area of UV contributed the most. By analyzing these five variables all together in accordance with the overall score obtained in the quality of life, we found a significant correlation (ρ = 0.002); with 6.23 times more chances of patients have better QOL in the presence of these five positive factors. By conducting the Mann Whitney U test between all the five demographic variables, health, and clinical care, we found that this combination also proved to be significant (ρ = 0.006). Therefore, patients with these five variables positive tend to have a better QOL. Based on these results, we reject the null hypothesis (H0) and accept the alternative hypothesis (H1) proposed in this study because we noted that the QOL of patients with UV is associated with sociodemographic and health, health care and clinical aspects of the injury

Analysis of cardiac autonomic modulation in obese and eutrophic children

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Glucose consume and growth of E. coli under electromagnetic field

E. coli,em caldo glicosado,foi submetida a campo eletromagnético de intensidade 5G, gerado por fonte de tensão alternada de 60 Hz . Os crescimento e consumo de glicose foram avaliados através do teste não-paramétrico de Mann-Whitney para comparação de dois grupos. Após 8 h de exposição encontraram-se menor valor da glicose residual e maior turbidez nos tubos expostos ao campo evidenciando efeito positivo deste. A causa deste efeito no consumo da glicose pode ser pela estimulação de sistema de transporte de glicose, como a Difusão Facilitada ou por um tipo de fenômeno chamado ressonância ciclotrônica. O aumento do crescimento pode ser pelo encurtamento da lag phase e estimulação da log phase.

Investigação do funcionamento cognitivo de pacientes pediátricos diagnosticados com leucemia linfóide aguda - LLA

The present work investigated the cognitive operation of children diagnosed with acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL), accompanied at pediatric oncologic institutions at the city of Natal/RN. Had participated in this study twenty children, of both sexes, between six and twelve years old, with the ALL diagnostic, who were in treatment (n=10) and out of treatment for at least one year (n=10) and were submitted exclusively to chemotherapy as CNS prophylaxis. The utilized protocol of neuropsychological evaluation covered the following cognitive abilities: intellective capability, attentional and memory systems, and executive functions. Data was analyzed through descriptive and inferential measures, with the support of the Mann-Whitney U Test and T-test, considering the influence of the variables sex, age at diagnostic and the past time since the beginning of the treatment over children s performance. The intellective capability evaluation showed low score to the out-of-treatment groups, female and children under five years old to the diagnostic. In concern of attentional systems, groups showed the expected performance. In a relevant way, in the evaluation of executive functions, were found reduced scores within all groups, especially inside the in-treatment group. Memory evaluation pointed to reduced performance in items concerning to learning evolution and spontaneous evocation after interference to the several groups. It can be concluded, reffer to the occurrence of transitory and permanent impact associated to the intrusion of chemotherapic components during the maturational course of the CNS. It s expected that the present investigation and the development of similar studies enable major comprehension about the mode, extension and repercussion of these damages subsidizing the development of strategies which may minimize them and provide better xxiii life quality to this clinical subgroup

Avaliação das habilidades neurocognitivas em crianças e adolescentes sobreviventes da Leucemia Linfoide Aguda - LLA

The present study investigated the impact of the treatment modalities of Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia on neurocognitive abilities of children and adolescents survivors, aged between 6 and 16 years of age, accompanied in pediatric oncology sectors of public health services in the cities of Campina Grande-PB and Natal-RN. The study included 52 children, 13 of these being children and adolescents diagnosed with leukemia and 39 healthy children matched in relation to the study group considering gender, age, school type and level of maternal education. Later the group of children with leukemia was subdivided into two subgroups depending on treatment modality which were submitted: Group 1A (only chemotherapy) and 1B (chemotherapy and radiotherapy). All participants were subjected to a battery of neuropsychological tests that investigated the following neurocognitive abilities: intellectual ability, memory system, attention, visuospatiality and visuoconstruction, processing speed and executive functions. Data were analyzed using descriptive and inferential measurements with the aid of the U test of Mann-Whitney and T test, considering the influence of the variables: sex, age at diagnosis, time since completion of treatment and level of schooling mothers, on the performance of children. Overall, it is concluded that the illness and the treatment of acute lymphoblastic leukemia significantly favors the emergence of cognitive deficits, particularly in terms of visuospatial skills, and executive skills visoconstrutivas. In turn, the treatment modality of radiotherapy is associated with the presence of more severe deficits, highlighting the significant impact on the speed of information processing. It is hoped that the results presented here will contribute to a better understanding of the nature and extent of neurocognitive effects arising ALL treatment

Dysautonomia and ventricular dysfunction in the indeterminate form of Chagas disease

Background: the associations between autonomic function and biventricular function in patients with the indeterminate form of Chagas disease remains to be elucidated.Methods: In 42 asymptornatic patients and 19 healthy volunteers, the autonomic function was assessed by time domain indices of heart rate variability (HRV), analyzed for 24 h; the right ventricular function was assessed by fraction area change, right ventricle shortening, and systolic excursion of the tricuspid valve; and the left ventricular function was assessed by ejection fraction and transmittal flow velocities. Data were expressed as mean SD or medians (including the lower quartile and upper quartile). Groups were compared by Student's t or Mann-Whitney U test. Autonomic and ventricular function were correlated by Pearson's or Spearman's correlation coefficient. The level of significance was 5%.Results: Right and left ventricular systolic function indexes were comparable between groups. Transmittal flow velocities were decreased in the Chagas disease group (p < 0.05). The patients presented impaired HRV as indicated by the values of SDNN-day (80 (64-99) ms vs. 98 (78-127) ms; p = 0.045), SDNNI-24 It (54 (43-71) vs. 65 (54-105) ms; p = 0.027), SDNNI-day (49 (42-64) vs. 67 (48-76) ms; p = 0.045), pNN50-day (2.2 (0.7-5)% vs. 10 (3-11)%; p = 0.033); and pNN50-24 It (3 (1-7)% vs. 12 (8-19)%; p = 0.013). There were no correlations between the left ventricular diastolic indices and autonomic dysfunctional indices (p > 0.05).Conclusion: Patients with the indeterminate form of Chagas disease have both dysautonomia, and left ventricular diastolic dysfunction. However, the right ventricular function is preserved. Importantly, ventricular diastolic dysfunction and dysautonomia. are independent phenomena. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V.. All rights reserved.

Respostas agudas pós-exercício dos níveis de lactato sanguíneo e creatinofosfoquinase de atletas adolescentes

O crescente interesse de crianças e adolescentes por esportes competitivos induz a uma maior preocupação em prescrever treinamentos adequados a essa população específica. O conhecimento do impacto da intensidade de treinamento físico competitivo sobre a saúde de adolescentes são ainda incipientes na literatura científica. Este estudo objetivou investigar as respostas agudas do lactato sanguíneo (Lac) e da creatinofosfoquinase (CPK) após uma sessão de treinamento físico em atletas jovens treinados em diferentes modalidades esportivas. Participaram 43 adolescentes do sexo masculino entre 9 e 17 anos, distribuídos em três grupos: nadadores, tenistas, jogadores de futebol de salão. Os protocolos para cada modalidade seguiram o planejamento normal de uma sessão específica. A dieta no dia anterior à coleta foi padronizada e as 24 horas que precediam a avaliação foram dedicadas ao repouso dos atletas. Foram coletados 5ml de sangue da veia antecubital imediatamente antes da realização da sessão de treinamento, repetindo coleta idêntica, imediatamente após a sessão. Foi obtida a idade óssea para a avaliação da maturação esquelética pelo método de Greulich & Pyle. Análise de variância Kruskal-Wallis e teste U-de Mann-Whitney foram utilizados para comparações entre os grupos. Valores de p < 0,05 foram considerados significantes. em todas as modalidades esportivas estudadas os valores prévios do Lac e da CPK foram inferiores aos valores pós-sessão. Com relação aos três grupos de faixas etárias, tanto para o Lac como para a CPK, os valores na pré-sessão foram inferiores aos obtidos na pós-sessão, assinalando que para o grupo de 9 aos 11 anos, tanto na situação pré como na pós, os valores foram inferiores aos observados nos grupos de idade superior. Os resultados indicaram que a magnitude de aumento da CPK e do Lac foram similares aos valores encontrados na literatura e demonstraram um aumento em função da faixa etária, indicando ser maturação biológica dependente.

Quality of life in women with vulvar cancer submitted to surgical treatment: a comparative study

Objectives: To investigate the occurrence and severity of lymphoedema of the lower extremities (LLE), quality of life (QoL), and urinary and sexual dysfunction in women with vulvar cancer submitted to surgical treatment.Study design: Twenty-eight patients with vulvar cancer submitted to vulvectomy and inguinofemoral lymphadenectomy and 28 healthy, age-matched women (control group) were evaluated. The occurrence and severity of LLE were determined by Miller's Clinical Evaluation. QoL, urinary function and sexual function were assessed by the EORTC QLQ-C30, SF-ICIQ and FSFI questionnaires, respectively. The differences between groups and correlations were assessed using Student's r-test, Chi-squared test, Mann-Whitney U-test and Spearman's rho test.Results: The groups were similar in terms of marital status, educational status, menopausal status, hormone therapy and height. The occurrence and severity of LLE were higher in women with vulvar cancer compared with the control group (p < 0.001 and p = 0.003, respectively). A significant association was found between the severity of LLE and advanced age (p = 0.04), and the severity of LLE and higher body mass index (BMI; p = 0.04) in patients with vulvar cancer. In the patients with vulvar cancer, there was a significant correlation between the severity of LLE and worse QoL in the following domains: physical, cognitive, emotional, social, fatigue, pain, sleep and financial questions (p < 0.05). There was no difference in urinary function between the two groups (p = 0.113). Age and number of deliveries were the only variables associated with the occurrence of urinary incontinence (p = 0.01). Urinary incontinence was present in women with a mean age of 74.9 +/- 4.6 years and a mean of 7.3 +/- 1.3 normal deliveries. There was no difference between the groups in terms of the sexual function. Multivariate analysis showed an association between sexual function and age (p = 0.01), and sexual function and being in a stable relationship (p = 0.02).Conclusion: Patients submitted to vulvectomy or inguinofemoral lymphadenectomy for vulvar cancer are at higher risk of developing LLE compared with healthy, age-matched women. This has a negative effect on QoL, but does not interfere with urinary or sexual function. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effect of calcium hydroxide-based materials on periapical tissue healing and orthodontic root resorption of endodontically treated teeth in dogs

This study evaluated periapical tissue healing and orthodontic root resorption of endodontically treated teeth sealed with calcium hydroxide in dogs. The sample consisted of three contralateral pairs of maxillary incisors and two contralateral pairs of mandibular incisors in each of two dogs using a split mouth design. After biomechanical preparation of the teeth in the first group (n = 10), a Ca(OH)(2) dressing was placed for 14 days before root canal filling with Ca(OH)(2)-based sealer (Sealapex) and gutta-percha points. In the second group (n = 10), root canals were obturated immediately after the mechanical preparation with gutta-percha points and zinc oxide and eugenol (ZOE)-based sealer (Endofill). After completion of endodontic treatment, the teeth were moved with an orthodontic appliance with a calibrated force of 200 g, reactivated every 21 days. After 105 days, the animals were killed and the teeth were removed upon completion of active treatment, without a period of recovery, and prepared for histomorphological analysis. All sections of each tooth were graded subjectively on a scale from one to four to obtain the average of the 16 histomorphological parameters analysed. Evaluation of the differences between the two treatment protocols was made with Mann-Whitney U-test. It was observed that the teeth treated with Ca(OH)(2)-based materials provided better outcomes (P = 5%), with complete repair of all root resorption areas, high rate of biological closure of the main canal and apical accessory canals by newly formed cementum, less intense and extensive chronic inflammatory infiltrate, and better organization of the periodontal ligament. Under the tested conditions, Ca(OH)(2)-based materials had a favourable action on periapical tissue healing and repair of orthodontic root resorption in endodontically treated dogs' teeth.

Trans-enamel and trans-dentinal cytotoxic effects of a 35% H2O2 bleaching gel on cultured odontoblast cell lines after consecutive applications

To evaluate the trans-enamel and trans-dentinal cytotoxic effects of a 35% H2O2 bleaching gel on an odontoblast-like cell lines (MDPC-23) after consecutive applications.Fifteen enamel/dentine discs were obtained from bovine central incisor teeth and placed individually in artificial pulp chambers. Three groups (n = 5 discs) were formed according to the following enamel treatments: G1: 35% H2O2 bleaching gel (15 min); G2: 35% H2O2 bleaching gel (15 min) + halogen light (20 s); G3: control (no treatment). After repeating the treatments three consecutive times, the extracts (culture medium + gel components that had diffused through enamel/dentine discs) in contact with the dentine were collected and applied to previously cultured MDPC-23 cells (50 000 cells cm(-2)) for 24 h. Cell metabolism was evaluated by the MTT assay and data were analysed statistically (alpha = 5%; Kruskal-Wallis and Mann-Whitney U-test). Cell morphology was analysed by scanning electron microscopy.Cell metabolism decreased by 92.03% and 82.47% in G1 and G2 respectively. G1 and G2 differed significantly (P < 0.05) from G3. Regardless of halogen light activation, the application of the bleaching gel on the cultured odontoblast-like cells caused significantly more severe cytotoxic effects than those observed in the nontreated control group. In addition, significant morphological cell alterations were observed in G1 and G2.After three consecutive applications of a 35% H2O2 bleaching agent, the diffusion of the gel components through enamel and dentine caused severe toxic effects to cultured pulp cells.

Fatigue strength: effect of welding type and joint design executed in Ti-6Al-4V structures

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Efeitos de um programa de atividade física nas funções cognitivas, equilíbrio e risco de quedas em idosos com demência de Alzheimer

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Physical activity attenuates neuropsychiatric disturbances and caregiver burden in patients with dementia

INTRODUCTION: A significant benefit from physical activity has recently been described in some patients who suffer from neurodegenerative diseases. OBJECTIVE: To assess the effects of physical activity on neuropsychiatric disturbances in demented patients and on the mental burden of their caregivers. METHODS: Assisted by a public geriatric psychiatry clinical unit, we studied 59 patients with dementia. Patients were divided into three groups according to their diagnosis and level of physical activity. Data were assessed through a semi-structured interview. Patients were evaluated with the Neuropsychiatric Inventory, the Mini-Sleep Questionnaire and the Baecke Questionnaire. The data were statistically analyzed using the Mann-Whitney U test and linear regression, with the level of significance set at 5%. RESULTS: Patients with Alzheimer's or vascular dementia who engaged in physical activity had fewer neuropsychiatric symptoms than those who did not. When compared to the control group, the caregivers of patients with vascular dementia who engaged in physical activity had a reduced burden. CONCLUSION: The regular practice of physical activity seems to contribute to a reduction in neuropsychiatric symptoms in dementia patients and to attenuate the burden of the caregivers of those patients.

Desempenho cognitivo em diferentes níveis de escolaridade de adultos e idosos ativos

OBJETIVO: Comparar o desempenho cognitivo em diferentes níveis de escolaridade de indivíduos adultos e idosos praticantes de atividade física. MÉTODOS: Foram avaliados 122 indivíduos sem comprometimento cognitivo, idade entre 46 a 85 anos e escolaridade entre 1 a 15 anos, praticantes de atividade física há mais de 6 meses no Programa de Atividades Físicas e Recreativas para a Terceira Idade. Foi aplicada uma bateria de testes cognitivos para verificar as seguintes variáveis: memória de curto prazo, linguagem, aprendizagem, taxa de esquecimento e funções executivas. RESULTADOS: O teste de Kruskal-Wallis apontou diferenças entre os grupos, com diferentes níveis de escolaridade, apenas para a memória de curto prazo, sendo que o teste de U Mann Whitney demonstra diferença entre o grupo de menor escolaridade (1-4 anos) com o grupo de maior escolaridade (> 12 anos). CONCLUSÃO: Diante disso, sugere-se que adultos e idosos ativos, em diferentes níveis de escolaridade, apresentam um perfil cognitivo semelhante para os seguintes domínios cognitivos: linguagem, aprendizagem, taxa de esquecimento e funções executivas.