Fumar antecipa a menopausa ? Evidências do Estudo Pró-Saúde

A menopausa é definida pelo momento em que a menstruação cessa permanentemente como conseqüência da falência ovariana. Uma vez estabelecida, há um aumento no risco de doença coronariana, doença de Alzheimer, osteoporose e fraturas e sua antecipação está relacionada a maiores índices de mortalidade. Com o envelhecimento geral da população mundial, as mulheres passaram a viver de um terço a metade de suas vidas no período pós-menopáusico e, conseqüentemente, a pesquisa de condições associadas à menopausa ganham importância. A idade da menopausa e os fatores que a influenciam variam entre os diversos estudos e poucos estudos brasileiros abordam o tema. O fumo tem sido associado à Antecipação da idade da menopausa. O objetivo deste estudo é analisar as diversas dimensões de associação entre o fumo e a idade da menopausa, levando em consideração possíveis relações de dose-resposta. Com base em dados do Estudo Pró-Saúde, foi realizado um estudo seccional utilizando-se para a análise o modelo de sobrevida paramétrico de riscos proporcionais com distribuição de Weibull. Os resultados apontam para uma redução em 32% do risco de menopausa entre fumantes ativas, que a alcançam 2,5 anos mais tarde que nunca fumantes, ajustando-se para escolaridade e paridade. Entre fumantes ativas, no entanto, foram sugeridos aumentos de risco de 123% e 192% para fumantes de 10 a 20 cigarros por dia e de mais de 20 maços-ano respectivamente, quando comparadas às fumantes de menos de 10 cigarros por dia e menos de 10 maços-ano. Nesses grupos, a menopausa foi antecipada em 3,3 anos e 4,4 anos, respectivamente. Em relação ao tempo decorrido entre cessar o tabagismo e a idade menopausa, duração do fumo ou idade de início, não foram encontradas associações. Neste estudo, em possíveis efeitos de dose-resposta, o fumo apresenta-se como fator associado à antecipação da idade da menopausa em alguns aspectos, embora não em outros.

Satellite formation in drop-on-demand printing of polymer solutions

High speed photographic images of jets formed from dilute solutions of polystyrene in diethyl phthalate ejected from a piezoelectric drop-on-demand inkjet head have been analyzed in order to study the formation and distribution of drops as the ligament collapses. Particular attention has been paid to satellite drops, and their relative separation and sizes. The effect of polymer concentration was investigated. The distribution of nearest-neighbour centre spacing between the drops formed from the ligament is better described by a 2-parameter modified gamma distribution than by a Gaussian distribution. There are (at least) two different populations of satellite size relative to the main drop size formed at normal jetting velocities, with ratios of about three between the diameters of the main drop and the successive satellite sizes. The distribution of the differences in drop size between neighbouring drops is close to Gaussian, with a small non-zero mean for low polymer concentrations, which is associated with the conical shape of the ligament prior to its collapse and the formation of satellites. Higher polymer concentrations result in slower jets for the same driving impulse, and also a tendency to form ligaments with a near-constant width. Under these conditions the mean of the distribution of differences in nearest-neighbour drop size was zero.

Fracture Properties of LPCVD Silicon Nitride and Thermally Grown Silicon Oxide Thin Films From the Load-Deflection of Long Si3N4 and SiO2/Si3N4 Diaphragms

The bulge test is successfully extended to the determination of the fracture properties of silicon nitride and oxide thin films. This is achieved by using long diaphragms made of silicon nitride single layers and oxide/nitride bilayers, and applying comprehensive mechanical model that describes the mechanical response of the diaphragms under uniform differential pressure. The model is valid for thin films with arbitrary z-dependent plane-strain modulus and prestress, where z denotes the coordinate perpendicular to the diaphragm. It takes into account the bending rigidity and stretching stiffness of the layered materials and the compliance of the supporting edges. This enables the accurate computation of the load-deflection response and stress distribution throughout the composite diaphragm as a function of the load, in particular at the critical pressure leading to the fracture of the diaphragms. The method is applied to diaphragms made of single layers of 300-nm-thick silicon nitride deposited by low-pressure chemical vapor deposition and composite diaphragms of silicon nitride grown on top of thermal silicon oxide films produced by wet thermal oxidation at 950 degrees C and 1050 degrees C with target thicknesses of 500, 750, and 1000 mn. All films characterized have an amorphous structure. Plane-strain moduli E-ps and prestress levels sigma(0) of 304.8 +/- 12.2 GPa and 1132.3 +/- 34.4 MPa, respectively, are extracted for Si3N4, whereas E-ps = 49.1 +/- 7.4 GPa and sigma(0) = -258.6 +/- 23.1 MPa are obtained for SiO2 films. The fracture data are analyzed using the standardized form of the Weibull distribution. The Si3N4 films present relatively high values of maximum stress at fracture and Weibull moduli, i.e., sigma(max) = 7.89 +/- 0.23 GPa and m = 50.0 +/- 3.6, respectively, when compared to the thermal oxides (sigma(max) = 0.89 +/- 0.07 GPa and m = 12.1 +/- 0.5 for 507-nm-thick 950 degrees C layers). A marginal decrease of sigma(max) with thickness is observed for SiO2, with no significant differences between the films grown at 950 degrees C and 1050 degrees C. Weibull moduli of oxide thin films are found to lie between 4.5 +/- 1.2 and 19.8 +/- 4.2, depending on the oxidation temperature and film thickness.

Fracture properties of silicon carbide thin films by bulge test of long rectangular membrane

This paper reports the mechanical properties and fracture behavior of silicon carbide (3C-SiC) thin films grown on silicon substrates. Using bulge testing combined with a refined load-deflection model of long rectangular membranes, which takes into account the bending stiffness and prestress of the membrane material, the Young's modulus, prestress, and fracture strength for the 3C-SiC thin films with thicknesses of 0.40 and 1.42 mu m were extracted. The stress distribution in the membranes under a load was calculated analytically. The prestresses for the two films were 322 +/- 47 and 201 +/- 34 MPa, respectively. The thinner 3C-SiC film with a strong (111) orientation has a plane-gstrain moduli of 415 +/- 61 GPa, whereas the thicker film with a mixture of both (111) and (110) orientations exhibited a plane-strain moduli of 329 +/- 49 GPa. The corresponding fracture strengths for the two kinds of SiC films were 6.49 +/- 0.88 and 3.16 +/- 0.38 GPa, respectively. The reference stresses were computed by integrating the local stress of the membrane at the fracture over edge, surface, and volume of the specimens and were fitted with Weibull distribution function. For the 0.40-mu m-thick membranes, the surface integration has a better agreement between the data and the model, implying that the surface flaws are the dominant fracture origin. For the 1.42-mu m-thick membranes, the surface integration presented only a slightly better fitting quality than the other two, and therefore, it is difficult to rule out unambiguously the effects of the volume and edge flaws.

Bulge testing and fracture properties of plasma-enhanced chemical vapor deposited silicon nitride thin films

The mechanical properties and fracture behavior of silicon nitride (SiNx) thin film fabricated by plasma-enhanced chemical vapor deposition is reported. Plane-strain moduli, prestresses, and fracture strengths of silicon nitride thin film; deposited both oil a bare Si substrate and oil a thermally oxidized Si substrate were extracted using bulge testing combined with a refined load-deflection model of long rectangular membranes. The plane-strain modu i and prestresses of SiNx thin films have little dependence on the substrates, that is, for the bare Si substrate, they are 133 +/- 19 GPa and 178 +/- 22 MPa, respectively, while for the thermally oxidized substrate, they are 140 +/- 26 Gila and 194 +/- 34 MPa, respectively. However, the fracture strength values of SiNx films grown on the two substrates are quite different, i.e., 1.53 +/- 0.33 Gila and 3.08 +/- 0.79 GPa for the bare Si substrate a A the oxidized Si substrate, respectively. The reference stresses were computed by integrating the local stress of the membrane at the fracture over the edge, Surface, and volume of the specimens and fitted with the Weibull distribution function. For SiNx thin film produced oil the bare Si Substrate, the Volume integration gave a significantly better agreement between data and model, implying that the volume flaws re the dominant fracture origin. For SiNx thin film grown on the oxidized Si substrate, the fit quality of surface and edge integration was significantly better than the Volume integration, and the dominant surface and edge flaws could be caused by buffered HF attacking the SiNx layer during SiO2 removal. Crown Copyright (C) 2008 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Fracture properties of PECVD silicon nitride thin films by long rectangular memrane bulge test

Bulge test combined with a refined load-deflection model for long rectangular membrane was applied to determine the mechanical and fracture properties of PECVD silicon nitride (SiNx) thin films. Plane-strain modulus E-ps prestress s(0), and fracture strength s(max) of SiNx thin films deposited both on bare Si substrate and on SiO2-topped Si substrate were extracted. The SiNx thin films on different substrates possess similar values of E-ps and s(0) but quite different values of s(max). The statistical analysis of fracture strengths were performed by Weibull distribution function and the fracture origins were further predicted.

Fracture properties of silicon carbide thin films charcterized by bulge test of long membranes

The mechanical properties and fracture behavior of silicon carbide (3C-SiC) thin films grown on silicon substrates were characterized using bulge testing combined with a refined load-deflection model for long rectangular membranes. Plane-strain modulus E-ps, prestress so, and fracture strength s(max) for 3C-SiC thin films with thickness of 0.40 mu m and 1.42 mu m were extracted. The E, values of SiC are strongly dependent on grain orientation. The thicker SIC film presents lower so than the thinner film due to stress relaxation. The s(max) values decrease with increasing film thickness. The statistical analysis of the fracture strength data were achieved by Weibull distribution function and the fracture origins were predicted.

Relationship between load/unload response ratio and damage variable and its application

The physics-based parameter: load/unload response ratio (LURR) was proposed to measure the proximity of a strong earthquake, which achieved good results in earthquake prediction. As LURR can be used to describe the damage degree of the focal media qualitatively, there must be a relationship between LURR and damage variable (D) which describes damaged materials quantitatively in damage mechanics. Hence, based on damage mechanics and LURR theory, taking Weibull distribution as the probability distribution function, the relationship between LURR and D is set up and analyzed. This relationship directs LURR applied in damage analysis of materials quantitatively from being qualitative earlier, which not only provides the LURR method with a more solid basis in physics, but may also give a new approach to the damage evaluation of big scale structures and prediction of engineering catastrophic failure. Copyright (c) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Relationship between load/unload response ratio and damage variable and its application

The physics-based parameter: load/unload response ratio (LURR) was proposed to measure the proximity of a strong earthquake, which achieved good results in earthquake prediction. As LURR can be used to describe the damage degree of the focal media qualitatively, there must be a relationship between LURR and damage variable (D) which describes damaged materials quantitatively in damage mechanics. Hence, based on damage mechanics and LURR theory, taking Weibull distribution as the probability distribution function, the relationship between LURR and D is set up and analyzed. This relationship directs LURR applied in damage analysis of materials quantitatively from being qualitative earlier, which not only provides the LURR method with a more solid basis in physics, but may also give a new approach to the damage evaluation of big scale structures and prediction of engineering catastrophic failure. Copyright (c) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

土壤侵蚀的中子活化示踪法研究

利用中子活化示踪法研究坡面土壤的侵蚀过程 ,发现坡面的相对侵蚀量从坡脚到坡顶随坡长的变化符合 Weibull分布 ,其形状参数主要受降雨量、降雨历时和径流深度的影响 ,尺度参数主要与平均雨强、I3 0 相关。坡面在侵蚀的同时也发生沉积 ,一般来说短历时高强度的降雨沉积量较小 ,而长历时低强度的降雨沉积量较大 ,某一部位侵蚀产沙的沉积量与其距离之间有 y=axb的关系。坡面径流直接影响着坡面的输移比 ,当径流深和径流系数较高时 ,输移比接近于 1,否则输移比降低

Microscopy of heat treated titanium alloy BT16

Metallographic characterisation is combined with statistical analysis to study the microstructure of a BT16 titanium alloy after different heat treatment processes. It was found that the length, width and aspect ratio of α plates in this alloy follow the three-parameter Weibull distribution. Increasing annealing temperature or time causes the probability distribution of the length and the width of α plates to tend toward a normal distribution. The phase transformation temperature of the BT16 titanium alloy was found to be 875±5°C.

Évaluation de la modélisation et des prévisions de la vitesse du vent menant à l'estimation de la production d'énergie annuelle d'une turbine éolienne

Suite à un stage avec la compagnie Hatch, nous possédons des jeux de données composés de séries chronologiques de vitesses de vent mesurées à divers sites dans le monde, sur plusieurs années. Les ingénieurs éoliens de la compagnie Hatch utilisent ces jeux de données conjointement aux banques de données d’Environnement Canada pour évaluer le potentiel éolien afin de savoir s’il vaut la peine d’installer des éoliennes à ces endroits. Depuis quelques années, des compagnies offrent des simulations méso-échelle de vitesses de vent, basées sur divers indices environnementaux de l’endroit à évaluer. Les ingénieurs éoliens veulent savoir s’il vaut la peine de payer pour ces données simulées, donc si celles-ci peuvent être utiles lors de l’estimation de la production d’énergie éolienne et si elles pourraient être utilisées lors de la prévision de la vitesse du vent long terme. De plus, comme l’on possède des données mesurées de vitesses de vent, l’on en profitera pour tester à partir de diverses méthodes statistiques différentes étapes de l’estimation de la production d’énergie. L’on verra les méthodes d’extrapolation de la vitesse du vent à la hauteur d’une turbine éolienne et l’on évaluera ces méthodes à l’aide de l’erreur quadratique moyenne. Aussi, on étudiera la modélisation de la vitesse du vent par la distributionWeibull et la variation de la distribution de la vitesse dans le temps. Finalement, l’on verra à partir de la validation croisée et du bootstrap si l’utilisation de données méso-échelle est préférable à celle de données des stations de référence, en plus de tester un modèle où les deux types de données sont utilisées pour prédire la vitesse du vent. Nous testerons la méthodologie globale présentement utilisée par les ingénieurs éoliens pour l’estimation de la production d’énergie d’un point de vue statistique, puis tenterons de proposer des changements à cette méthodologie, qui pourraient améliorer l’estimation de la production d’énergie annuelle.

Characterization of Probability Distributions Using the Residual Entropy Function

The present study on the characterization of probability distributions using the residual entropy function. The concept of entropy is extensively used in literature as a quantitative measure of uncertainty associated with a random phenomenon. The commonly used life time models in reliability Theory are exponential distribution, Pareto distribution, Beta distribution, Weibull distribution and gamma distribution. Several characterization theorems are obtained for the above models using reliability concepts such as failure rate, mean residual life function, vitality function, variance residual life function etc. Most of the works on characterization of distributions in the reliability context centers around the failure rate or the residual life function. The important aspect of interest in the study of entropy is that of locating distributions for which the shannon’s entropy is maximum subject to certain restrictions on the underlying random variable. The geometric vitality function and examine its properties. It is established that the geometric vitality function determines the distribution uniquely. The problem of averaging the residual entropy function is examined, and also the truncated form version of entropies of higher order are defined. In this study it is established that the residual entropy function determines the distribution uniquely and that the constancy of the same is characteristics to the geometric distribution

Exercise sheet 5

Exercises and solutions in LaTex