Unimodality of wave amplitude in the northern Hemisphere

A novel statistic for local wave amplitude of the 500-hPa geopotential height field is introduced. The statistic uses a Hilbert transform to define a longitudinal wave envelope and dynamical latitude weighting to define the latitudes of interest. Here it is used to detect the existence, or otherwise, of multimodality in its distribution function. The empirical distribution function for the 1960-2000 period is close to a Weibull distribution with shape parameters between 2 and 3. There is substantial interdecadal variability but no apparent local multimodality or bimodality. The zonally averaged wave amplitude, akin to the more usual wave amplitude index, is close to being normally distributed. This is consistent with the central limit theorem, which applies to the construction of the wave amplitude index. For the period 1960-70 it is found that there is apparent bimodality in this index. However, the different amplitudes are realized at different longitudes, so there is no bimodality at any single longitude. As a corollary, it is found that many commonly used statistics to detect multimodality in atmospheric fields potentially satisfy the assumptions underlying the central limit theorem and therefore can only show approximately normal distributions. The author concludes that these techniques may therefore be suboptimal to detect any multimodality.

Variability and trends in England and Wales precipitation

The England and Wales precipitation (EWP) dataset is a homogeneous time series of daily accumulations from 1931 to 2014, composed from rain gauge observations spanning the region. The daily regional-average precipitation statistics are shown to be well described by a Weibull distribution, which is used to define extremes in terms of percentiles. Computed trends in annual and seasonal precipitation are sensitive to the period chosen, due to large variability on interannual and decadal timescales. Atmospheric circulation patterns associated with seasonal precipitation variability are identified. These patterns project onto known leading modes of variability, all of which involve displacements of the jet stream and storm-track over the eastern Atlantic. The intensity of daily precipitation for each calendar season is investigated by partitioning all observations into eight intensity categories contributing equally to the total precipitation in the dataset. Contrary to previous results based on shorter periods, no significant trends of the most intense categories are found between 1931 and 2014. The regional-average precipitation is found to share statistical properties common to the majority of individual stations across England and Wales used in previous studies. Statistics of the EWP data are examined for multi-day accumulations up to 10 days, which are more relevant for river flooding. Four recent years (2000, 2007, 2008 and 2012) have a greater number of extreme events in the 3-and 5-day accumulations than any previous year in the record. It is the duration of precipitation events in these years that is remarkable, rather than the magnitude of the daily accumulations.

A Bayesian Analysis in the Presence of Covariates for Multivariate Survival Data: An example of Application

In this paper, we introduce a Bayesian analysis for survival multivariate data in the presence of a covariate vector and censored observations. Different ""frailties"" or latent variables are considered to capture the correlation among the survival times for the same individual. We assume Weibull or generalized Gamma distributions considering right censored lifetime data. We develop the Bayesian analysis using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods.

A new family of generalized distributions

Kumaraswamy [Generalized probability density-function for double-bounded random-processes, J. Hydrol. 462 (1980), pp. 79-88] introduced a distribution for double-bounded random processes with hydrological applications. For the first time, based on this distribution, we describe a new family of generalized distributions (denoted with the prefix `Kw`) to extend the normal, Weibull, gamma, Gumbel, inverse Gaussian distributions, among several well-known distributions. Some special distributions in the new family such as the Kw-normal, Kw-Weibull, Kw-gamma, Kw-Gumbel and Kw-inverse Gaussian distribution are discussed. We express the ordinary moments of any Kw generalized distribution as linear functions of probability weighted moments (PWMs) of the parent distribution. We also obtain the ordinary moments of order statistics as functions of PWMs of the baseline distribution. We use the method of maximum likelihood to fit the distributions in the new class and illustrate the potentiality of the new model with an application to real data.

A flexible model for survival data with a cure rate: a Bayesian approach

In this paper we deal with a Bayesian analysis for right-censored survival data suitable for populations with a cure rate. We consider a cure rate model based on the negative binomial distribution, encompassing as a special case the promotion time cure model. Bayesian analysis is based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We also present some discussion on model selection and an illustration with a real dataset.

Experimental evidence and model explanation for cell population characteristics modification when applying sequential photodynamic therapy

We present experimental evidence of the existence of cell variability in terms of threshold light dose for Hep G2 (liver cancer cells) cultured. Using a theoretical model to describe the effects caused by successive photodynamic therapy (PDT) sessions, and based on the consequences of a partial response we introduce the threshold dose distribution concept within a tumor. The experimental model consists in a stack of flasks, and simulates subsequent layers of a tissue exposed to PDT application. The result indicates that cells from the same culture could respond in different ways to similar PDT induced-damages. Moreover, the consequence is a partial killing of the cells submitted to PDT, and the death fraction decreased at each in vitro PDT session. To demonstrate the occurrence of cell population modification as a response to PDT, we constructed a simple theoretical model and assumed that the threshold dose distribution for a cell population of a tumor is represented by a modified Gaussian distribution.

A semi-Markov multistate model for estimation of the mean quality-adjusted survival for non-progressive processes

We discuss the estimation of the expected value of the quality-adjusted survival, based on multistate models. We generalize an earlier work, considering the sojourn times in health states are not identically distributed, for a given vector of covariates. Approaches based on semiparametric and parametric (exponential and Weibull distributions) methodologies are considered. A simulation study is conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed estimator and the jackknife resampling method is used to estimate the variance of such estimator. An application to a real data set is also included.

Qualidade em serviços de saúde: uma contribuição à definição de um modelo paramétrico e padrão de qualidade do tempo agendado para consulta ambulatorial

This work presents a study in quality of health care, with focus on consulting appointment. The main purpose is to define a statistical model and propose a quality grade of the consulting appointment time. The time considered is that from the day the patient get the appointment done to the day the consulting is realized. It is used reliability techniques and functions that has as main characteristic the analysis of data regarding the time of occurrence certain event. It is gathered a random sample of 1743 patients in the appointment system of a University Hospital - the Hospital Universitário Onofre Lopes - of the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil. The sample is randomly stratified in terms on clinical specialty. The data were analyzed against the parametric methods of the reliability statistics and the adjustment of the regression model resulted in the Weibull distribution being best fit to data. The quality grade proposed is based in the PAHO criteria for a consulting appointment and result that no clinic got the PAHO quality grade. The quality grade proposed could be used to define priority for improvement and as criteria to quality control

Utilização de RNA´s na construção do diagrama de vida constante de probabilidade de materiais compósitos

The static and cyclic assays are common to test materials in structures.. For cycling assays to assess the fatigue behavior of the material and thereby obtain the S-N curves and these are used to construct the diagrams of living constant. However, these diagrams, when constructed with small amounts of S-N curves underestimate or overestimate the actual behavior of the composite, there is increasing need for more testing to obtain more accurate results. Therewith, , a way of reducing costs is the statistical analysis of the fatigue behavior. The aim of this research was evaluate the probabilistic fatigue behavior of composite materials. The research was conducted in three parts. The first part consists of associating the equation of probability Weilbull equations commonly used in modeling of composite materials S-N curve, namely the exponential equation and power law and their generalizations. The second part was used the results obtained by the equation which best represents the S-N curves of probability and trained a network to the modular 5% failure. In the third part, we carried out a comparative study of the results obtained using the nonlinear model by parts (PNL) with the results of a modular network architecture (MN) in the analysis of fatigue behavior. For this we used a database of ten materials obtained from the literature to assess the ability of generalization of the modular network as well as its robustness. From the results it was found that the power law of probability generalized probabilistic behavior better represents the fatigue and composites that although the generalization ability of the MN that was not robust training with 5% failure rate, but for values mean the MN showed more accurate results than the PNL model

Testes de hipóteses em modelos de sobrevivência com Fração de cura

Survival models deals with the modeling of time to event data. However in some situations part of the population may be no longer subject to the event. Models that take this fact into account are called cure rate models. There are few studies about hypothesis tests in cure rate models. Recently a new test statistic, the gradient statistic, has been proposed. It shares the same asymptotic properties with the classic large sample tests, the likelihood ratio, score and Wald tests. Some simulation studies have been carried out to explore the behavior of the gradient statistic in fi nite samples and compare it with the classic statistics in diff erent models. The main objective of this work is to study and compare the performance of gradient test and likelihood ratio test in cure rate models. We first describe the models and present the main asymptotic properties of the tests. We perform a simulation study based on the promotion time model with Weibull distribution to assess the performance of the tests in finite samples. An application is presented to illustrate the studied concepts

The effect of porcelain thickness and surface liner application on the fracture behavior of a ceramic system

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Tensile strength of radio frequency cold plasma treated PET fibers - Part 1: Influence of environment and treatment time

This article reports on a series of experiments with polyethylene terepthalate (PET) treated in a radio frequency plasma reactor using argon and oxygen as a gas fuel, for treatment times equal to 5 s, 20 s, 30 s, and 100 s. The mechanical strength modification of PET fibers, evaluated by tensile tests on monofilaments, showed that oxygen and argon plasma treatment resulted in a decrease in the average tensile strength compared with the untreated fibers. This reduction in tensile strength is more significant for argon plasma and is very sensitive to the treatment time for oxygen plasma. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) used to analyze the effects of cold plasma treatment on fiber surfaces indicates differences in roughness profiles depending on the type of treatments, which were associated with variations in mechanical strength. Differences in the roughness profile, surveyed through an image analysis method, provided the distance of roughness interval, D-ri. This parameter represents the number of peaks contained in a unit length and was introduced to correlate fiber surface condition, before and after cold plasma treatments, and average tensile strength. Statistical analysis of experimental data, using Weibull cumulative distribution and linear representation, was performed to explain influences of treatment time and environmental effects on mechanical properties. The shape parameter, alpha, and density parameter, beta, from the Weibull distribution function were used to indicate the experimental data range and to confirm the mechanical performance obtained experimentally.

Cadmium and exposure to stress increase aggressive behavior

Environmental toxicants and stress influence the health and behavior of people from different parts of the world. In the present study, aggressive behavior was evaluated in rats exposed to cadmium (Cd) for four weeks and subjected to immobilization stress (IS) based on the resident/intruder paradigm. Latency to the first bite (LB), total number of attacks (NA), total duration of attack manifestations (DAM), and a composite aggression score (CAS) were used to assess aggressiveness. Cadmium concentrations in the blood and the brain were determined. We observed that the parameters of aggressiveness were not altered by either Cd or IS when administered separately. However, animals exposed to Cd + IS had increased NA, DAM, and CAS. Cadmium was detected in the blood and the brain after treatment and Cd + IS exposure modified Cd distribution in these tissues. These results suggest that exposure to low levels of Cd associated with stress may lead to increased aggressiveness in rats. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Recycling of silicon carbide and corn starch as binder originating from commercial starch consolidation

The main goal of this work is to demonstrate that the use of recycled material originated from SiC ceramics is viable. These ceramics were produced by commercial starch consolidation process. Before calcination stage, surplus of these materials always appears. This surplus is rich in SiC and starch. Samples were made by material previously milled in automatic mortar and sieved (100 Tyler). Later, 10% of distilled water was added to the material and the mixture was pressed at 40 MPa. In order to characterize the ceramic, three point flexural test were made, according to the ASTM C1161/94 norm. The results were analyzed by Weibull statistical method. Apparent density and porosity measures also were made, according to ASTM C20/87 norm. A verification of the surface was made in the fracture area by the depth from focus method and SEM image analysis. The results showed that the recycling process is fully viable, being a good economic option and reduce possible pollutant effect to the environment.

Effect of air-particle abrasion protocols on the biaxial flexural strength, surface characteristics and phase transformation of zirconia after cyclic loading

This study evaluated the effect of air-particle abrasion protocols on the biaxial flexural strength, surface characteristics and phase transformation of zirconia after cyclic loading. Disc-shaped zirconia specimens (Ø: 15mm, thickness: 1.2mm) (N=32) were submitted to one of the air-particle abrasion protocols (n=8 per group): (a) 50μm Al2O3 particles, (b) 110μm Al2O3 particles coated with silica (Rocatec Plus), (c) 30μm Al2O3 particles coated with silica (CoJet Sand) for 20s at 2.8bar pressure. Control group received no air-abrasion. All specimens were initially cyclic loaded (×20,000, 50N, 1Hz) in water at 37°C and then subjected to biaxial flexural strength testing where the conditioned surface was under tension. Zirconia surfaces were characterized and roughness was measured with 3D surface profilometer. Phase transformation from tetragonal to monoclinic was determined by Raman spectroscopy. The relative amount of transformed monoclinic zirconia (FM) and transformed zone depth (TZD) were measured using XRD. The data (MPa) were analyzed using ANOVA, Tukey's tests and Weibull modulus (m) were calculated for each group (95% CI). The biaxial flexural strength (MPa) of CoJet treated group (1266.3±158A) was not significantly different than that of Rocatec Plus group (1179±216.4A,B) but was significantly higher than the other groups (Control: 942.3±74.6C; 50μm Al2O3: 915.2±185.7B,C). Weibull modulus was higher for control (m=13.79) than those of other groups (m=4.95, m=5.64, m=9.13 for group a, b and c, respectively). Surface roughness (Ra) was the highest with 50μm Al2O3 (0.261μm) than those of other groups (0.15-0.195μm). After all air-abrasion protocols, FM increased (15.02%-19.25%) compared to control group (11.12%). TZD also showed increase after air-abrasion protocols (0.83-1.07μm) compared to control group (0.59μm). Air-abrasion protocols increased the roughness and monoclinic phase but in turn abrasion with 30μm Al2O3 particles coated with silica has increased the biaxial flexural strength of the tested zirconia. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.