Long-term memory in financial prices: evidence from the Dutch stock market returns

Prepared for presentation at the Portuguese Finance Network International Conference 2014, Vilamoura, Portugal, June 18-20

Analysis of Electricity Market Prices Using Multidimensional Scaling

This paper studies the impact of the energy upon electricity markets using Multidimensional Scaling (MDS). Data from major energy and electricity markets is considered. Several maps produced by MDS are presented and discussed revealing that this method is useful for understanding the correlation between them. Furthermore, the results help electricity markets agents hedging against Market Clearing Price (MCP) volatility.

Seroepidemiology of toxoplasmosis in women of childbearing age from a marginal community of Maracaibo, Venezuela

The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of anti-T. gondii total and IgM antibodies in women of childbearing age. One hundred serum samples of women were studied with age range from 11 to 45 years old. Samples were chosen by random. The determination of total antibodies was carried out through the indirect hemagglutination technique and IgM antibodies by ELISA's technique. The statistical analysis was carried out through the Chi square and the Spearman correlation tests. The theoretical estimated incidence of congenital toxoplasmosis was calculated, according to the annual increment of antibody prevalence among the age groups. The overall prevalence of toxoplasmosis was 33%, while only six individuals (18.2%) were positive to IgM. The highest prevalence was observed in the 11-35 year-old age group. The theoretical estimated incidence was 1.5 for 100 pregnancies in women of 21-25 year-old group; it decreased until 0.1% in the 41-45 year-old age group. The findings show a high prevalence of toxoplasmosis in this community with a high infection risk in women of the studied age group and the high cat population observed, suggesting that the transmission way by contaminated soils may play a main role in the spreading of toxoplasmosis in this community.

Differences in the prices of physical ETF’s and synthetic ETF’s

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Análise do impacto na despesa pública com medicamentos decorrente da alteração do sistema de preços de referência

RESUMO - Com o presente trabalho pretende-se analisar o impacto na despesa pública com medicamentos decorrente da implementação do Decreto-Lei 48-A/2010, de 13 de Maio, e do Decreto-Lei 106-A/2010, de 1 de Outubro, nos anos de 2011 e 2012. Os referidos diplomas alteraram as regras de formação do preço de referência e terão contribuído para a redução da despesa do SNS com medicamentos verificada em 2011 e 2012. Crê-se que antes da implementação dos referidos diplomas, o mercado concorrencial de medicamentos genéricos não apresentava a competição necessária, não se verificando a aproximação dos preços praticados ao seu custo marginal, de acordo com o previsto na teoria económica clássica. Pretende-se identificar o mercado total dos grupos homogéneos e analisar 50% do seu valor, através da identificação do preço de referência efectivo do 1º trimestre de 2011 ao 4º trimestre de 2012 e do cálculo do preço de referência expectável, na ausência da implementação dos referidos diplomas, com base nas regras existentes antes da implementação dos referidos diplomas. A identificação o peso relativo da alteração das regras do sistema de preços de referência, na despesa do SNS com medicamentos ocorrida em 2011 e 2012, poderemos delinear com maior rigor futuras estratégicas de controlo da despesa pública com medicamentos. Um factor de especial relevância dado o contexto actual de austeridade.

Seroprevalence and sociocultural conditionants of Chagas disease in school aged children of marginal zones of Asunción

Chagas disease is becoming a public health problem in Latin America due to the wide distribution, the high prevalence, the magnitude of the damage caused and the difficulties to control it. In Paraguay, the disease is mainly distributed in the departments of Paraguari, Cordillera and Central. Prevalence in marginal zones, where migrations from rural populations and endemic areas make possible the urbanization of the disease, has no been studied yet. This is a descriptive study with a cross-sectional sampling and a probabilistic system recruitment carried out in school aged children from marginal zones of Asuncion to determine the prevalence of Chagas' disease. Serological methods, parasite isolation and questionnaires were used to achieve the goals. Nine hundred and fifty three children were studied to determine the prevalence of Chagas' disease in marginal zones which was 1.4%.

Access to essential medicines in Timor-leste: availability, prices and affordability

O acesso a medicamentos essenciais a preços acessíveis de forma sustentável é um dos indicadores do cumprimento dos Objectivos de Desenvolvimento do Milénio e pode ser considerado como parte do direito universal à saúde. Tal como acontece com outros bens essenciais, o acesso aos medicamentos depende de múltiplos factores, como a sua disponibilidade, preços e capacidade de aquisição por parte da população. Na última década, foram efectuados mais de 50 estudos para avaliar esses factores, em países de baixos e médios rendimentos, utilizando uma metodologia desenvolvida pela Organização Mundial de Saúde e a organização Health Action International, numa tentativa de compreender as possíveis causas para o baixo acesso aos medicamentos. Os resultados destes estudos revelam uma baixa disponibilidade de medicamentos essenciais de um modo geral, sobretudo no sector público, e preços elevados, sobretudo no sector privado. O objectivo deste estudo foi descrever a disponibilidade, os preços e a capacidade de aquisição de medicamentos essenciais em Timor-Leste, com recurso à metodologia da OMS/HAI. Foram recolhidos dados sobre a disponibilidade e os preços de uma lista de medicamentos em hospitais, centros de saúde e farmácias comunitárias. Embora os resultados pareçam apontar para uma disponibilidade global razoável de medicamentos genéricos no sector público (59,2%), algumas substâncias activas e classes terapêuticas encontravam-se sistematicamente esgotadas em vários pontos do país. Nas unidades situadas em locais mais remotos, a disponibilidade de medicamentos chegava a descer para valores na ordem dos 47,5%. Verificou-se que a disponibilidade de medicamentos nas farmácias privadas era ainda mais baixa do que nos serviços públicos (38,0%). Os medicamentos são dispensados gratuitamente nos hospitais e centros de saúde, mas nas farmácias privadas chegam a ultrapassar 40 vezes os seus preços de referência internacionais, mesmo como genéricos. Consequentemente, estima-se por exemplo, que um funcionário público que utilize diclofenac para o tratamento crónico da artrose, tenha de trabalhar durante mais de 2 dias para pagar o seu tratamento mensal com o medicamento genérico, ou 12,5 dias, se for prescrito o medicamento de marca. Durante o estudo, foram detectados vários outros problemas que podem comprometer a qualidade e segurança dos medicamentos. Apesar das limitações inerentes a uma investigação deste tipo, foi possível concluir através do presente estudo que, ao contrário da tendência geral observada em países similares, o sector público de cuidados de saúde em Timor-Leste parece ter um melhor desempenho do que o privado. No entanto, as condições limitadas da maioria das unidades de saúde públicas pode forçar alguns doentes a recorrer ao sector privado, onde os preços pagos pelos tratamentos são inaceitavelmente elevados. A ausência de regulamentação do sector farmacêutico (e fiscalização insuficiente da existente) parece estar a contribuir para a estagnação do sector privado e a encorajar indirectamente a falta de transparência nas práticas farmacêuticas. Dada a escassez de estudos sobre este assunto em Timor-Leste, espera-se que o presente trabalho forneça evidências importantes que possam ser utilizadas em estudos subsequentes e como base a uma intervenção por parte das autoridades com o objectivo de melhorar a disponibilidade de medicamentos no sistema público e de encorajar o desenvolvimento do sector privado como alternativa viável, segura e de custo aceitável.

The ambivalence of two-part tariffs for bottleneck access

Two-part tariffs, when used at the retail level, increase efficiency by lowering the price of marginal units. The same potential for higher efficiency exists for two-part tariffs at wholesale level for a given market structure, but the fixed part of the wholesale tariff can negatively affect the latter. In a simulated competition model of next-generation telecommunications access networks that has been calibrated with engineering cost data, we show that the latter effects strongly outweigh the former. That is, substituting a cost-based linear wholesale access tariff with revenue-equivalent two-part tariffs reduces the number of access seekers and therefore leads to higher prices and lower welfare and consumer surplus.

Going beyond duopoly: Connectivity breakdowns under receiving party pays

We show that the prediction of strategic connectivity breakdowns under a receiving-party-pays system and discrimination between on and off-net prices does not hold up once more than two mobile networks are considered. Indeed, if there are at least three competing networks and enough utility is obtained from receiving calls, only equilibria with finite call prices and receiving prices exist. Private negotiations over access charges then achieve the efficient outcome. Bill & keep (zero access charges) and free outgoing and incoming calls are efficient if and only marginal costs of calls are zero.

O provérbio: um género marginal(izado)?!

Enquanto o provérbio, numa cultura de tradição oral, representa tipicamente o tesouro do conhecimento e a colecção das regras sociais ou jurídicas, na transição para a cultura escrita e na formulação científica dos saberes, esse género da Literatura Tradicional perde a sua autoridade nos círculos dominantes da sociedade. Ressalve-se, porém, o facto de, ao longo desse processo, haver ciclos.

Carbon prices. Dynamic analysis of European and Californian markets

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Alterações Climáticas e Políticas de Desenvolvimento Sustentável

Managing marginal capital requirements in solvency II: Analysis of a real insurance portfolio

This thesis provides a complete analysis of the Standard Capital Requirements given by Solvency II for a real insurance portfolio. We analyze the investment portfolio of BPI Vida e Pensões, an insurance company affiliated with a Portuguese bank BPI, both at security, sub-portfolio and asset class levels. By using the Standard Formula from EIOPA, Total SCR amounts to 239M€. This value is mostly explained by Market and Default Risk whereas the former is driven by Spread and Concentration Risks. Following the methodology of Leblanc (2011), we examine the Marginal Contribution of an asset to the SCR which allows for the evaluation of the risks of each security given its characteristics and interactions in the portfolio. The top contributors to the SCR are Corporate Bonds and Term Deposits. By exploring further the composition of the portfolio, our results show that slight changes in allocation of Term and Cash Deposits have severe impacts on the total Concentration and Default Risks, respectively. Also, diversification effects are very relevant by representing savings of 122M€. Finally, Solvency II represents an opportunity for the portfolio optimization. By constructing efficient frontiers, we find that as the target expected return increases, a shift from Term Deposits/ Commercial Papers to Eurozone/Peripheral and finally Equities occurs.

Persistence of the embryonic lateral marginal vein: report of two cases

PURPOSE: Congenital venous malformations of the lower limbs represent a particular challenge for the vascular surgeon. Persistence of fetal veins is a rare malformation, and the most common is the persistence of the lateral marginal vein usually observed in patients with Klippel-Trenaunnay Syndrome. The persistence of this embryonic vein as an isolated venous malformation without the other characteristics of the Klippel-Trenaunnay Syndrome has not yet been reported. This paper describes two cases. METHODS: Two patients, a 17-year-old male patient and a 16-year-old female, have had since their birth a large venous trunk in the lateral aspect of the right leg and thigh. The limbs underwent duplex scanning and phlebography. The surgical removal of the lateral marginal vein was performed. RESULTS: Surgical treatment resulted in very good functional and aesthetic results. Follow-up at 26 months showed no evidence of varicose vein recurrence. CONCLUSIONS: To achieve good results, surgical intervention may be indicated in cases of orthopedic deformity, hemorrhage, symptomatic, and unaesthetic lesions.

Energy and carbon prices: a comparison of interactions in the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme and the Western Climate Initiative market

We provide a comparative analysis of how short-run variations in carbon and energy prices relate to each other in the emerging greenhouse gas market in California (Western Climate Initiative [WCI], and the European Union Emission Trading Scheme [EU ETS]). We characterize the relationship between carbon, gas, coal, electricity and gasoline prices and an indicator for economic activity, and present a first analysis of carbon prices in the WCI. We also provide a comparative analysis of the structures of the two markets. We estimate a vector autoregressive model and the impulse--response functions. Our main findings show a positive impact from a carbon shock toward electricity, in both markets, but larger in the WCI electricity price, indicating more efficiency. We propose that the widening of carbon market sectors, namely fuels transport and electricity imports, may contribute to this result. To conclude, the research shows significant and coherent relations between variables in WCI, which demonstrate some degree of success for a first year in operation. Reversely, the EU ETS should complete its intended market reform, to allow for more impact of the carbon price. Finally, in both markets, there is no evidence of carbon pricing depleting economic activity.