985 resultados para Lionel Fogarty


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We exploit a voting reform in France to estimate the causal effect of exit poll information on turnout and bandwagon voting. Before the change in legislation, individuals in some French overseas territories voted after the election result had already been made public via exit poll information from mainland France. We estimate that knowing the exit poll information decreases voter turnout by about 11 percentage points. Our study is the first clean empirical design outside of the laboratory to demonstrate the effect of such knowledge on voter turnout. Furthermore, we find that exit poll information significantly increases bandwagon voting; that is, voters who choose to turn out are more likely to vote for the expected winner.

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Although tactical voting attracts a great deal of attention, it is very hard to measure as it requires knowledge of both individuals’ voting choices as well as their unobserved preferences. In this article, we present a simple empirical strategy to nonparametrically identify tactical voting patterns directly from balloting results. This approach allows us to study the magnitude and direction of strategic voting as well as to verify which information voters and parties take into account to determine marginal constituencies. We show that tactical voting played a significant role in the 2010 election, mainly for Liberal–Democratic voters supporting Labour. Moreover, our results suggest that voters seem to form their expectations based on a national swing in vote shares rather than newspaper guides published in the main media outlets or previous election outcomes. We also present some evidence that suggests that campaign spending is not driving tactical voting.

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In this paper, we assess whether quality survives the test of time in academia by comparing up to 80 years of academic journal article citations from two top journals, Econometrica and the American Economic Review. The research setting under analysis is analogous to a controlled real world experiment in that it involves a homogeneous task (trying to publish in top journals) by individuals with a homogenous job profile (academics) in a specific research environment (economics and econometrics). Comparing articles published concurrently in the same outlet at the same time (same issue) indicates that symbolic capital or power due to institutional affiliation or connection does seem to boost citation success at the beginning, giving those educated at or affiliated with leading universities an initial comparative advantage. Such advantage, however, does not hold in the long run: at a later stage,the publications of other researchers become as or even more successful.

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In an essay, "The Books of Last Things", Delia Falconer discusses the emergence of a new genre in publishing - microhistories. She cites a number of recent titles in non-fiction and fiction - Longitude, Cod, Tulips, Pushkin's Button, Nathaniel's Nutmeg, Zarafa, The Surgeon of Crowthorne, The Potato, The Perfect Storm. Delia Falconer observes of this tradition: "One has the sense, reading these books, of a surprising weight, of pleasant shock. In part, it is because we are looking at things which are generally present around us, but modestly out of sight and mind - historical nitty gritty like cod, potatoes, longitudinal clocks - which the authors have thrust suddenly, like a Biblical visitation of frogs or locusts, in our face. Things like spice and buttons and clocks are generally seen to enable history on the large scale, but are not often viewed as its worthy subjects. And by the same grand logic of history, more unusual phenomena like cabinets of curiosities or glass-making or farm lore or sailors' knots are simply odd blips on its radar screen, interesting footnotes. These new books, microhistories, reverse the usual order of history, which argues from the general to the particular, in order to prove its inevitable progress. They start from the footnotes. But by reversing the process, and walking through the back door of history, you don't necessarily end up at the front of the same house." Delia Falconer speculates about the reasons for the popularity of microhistories. She concludes: "I would like to think that reading them is not simply an exercise in nostalgia, but a challenge to the present". In Mauve, Simon Garfield provides a new way of thinking and writing about the history of intellectual property. Instead of providing a grand historical narrative of intellectual property, he tells the story of a particular invention, and its exploitation. Simon Garfield relates how English chemist William Perkin accidentally discovered a way to mass-produce colour mauve in a factory. Working on a treatment for malaria in his London home laboratory, Perkin failed to produce artificial quinine. Instead he created a dark oily sludge that turned silk a beautiful light purple. The colour was unique and became the most desirable shade in the fashion houses of Paris and London. ... The book Mauve will have a number of contemporary resonances for intellectual property lawyers and academics. Simon Garfield emphasizes the difficulties inherent in commercialising an invention and managing intellectual property. He investigates the uneasy collaboration between industry and science. Simon Garfield suggests that complaints about the efficacy of patent offices are perennial. He also highlights the problems faced by courts and law-makers in accommodating new technologies within the logic of patent law. In his elegant microhistory of the colour mauve, Simon Garfield confirms the conclusion of Brad Sherman and Lionel Bently that many aspects of modern intellectual property law can only be understood through an understanding of the past: "The image of intellectual property law that developed during the 19th century and the narrative of identity which this engendered played and continue to play an important role in the way we think about and understand intellectual property law".

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Aims/hypothesis Diabetic retinopathy is a serious complication of diabetes mellitus and can lead to blindness. A genetic component, in addition to traditional risk factors, has been well described although strong genetic factors have not yet been identified. Here, we aimed to identify novel genetic risk factors for sight-threatening diabetic retinopathy using a genome-wide association study. Methods Retinopathy was assessed in white Australians with type 2 diabetes mellitus. Genome-wide association analysis was conducted for comparison of cases of sight-threatening diabetic retinopathy (n = 336) with diabetic controls with no retinopathy (n = 508). Top ranking single nucleotide polymorphisms were typed in a type 2 diabetes replication cohort, a type 1 diabetes cohort and an Indian type 2 cohort. A mouse model of proliferative retinopathy was used to assess differential expression of the nearby candidate gene GRB2 by immunohistochemistry and quantitative western blot. Results The top ranked variant was rs3805931 with p = 2.66 × 10−7, but no association was found in the replication cohort. Only rs9896052 (p = 6.55 × 10−5) was associated with sight-threatening diabetic retinopathy in both the type 2 (p = 0.035) and the type 1 (p = 0.041) replication cohorts, as well as in the Indian cohort (p = 0.016). The study-wide meta-analysis reached genome-wide significance (p = 4.15 × 10−8). The GRB2 gene is located downstream of this variant and a mouse model of retinopathy showed increased GRB2 expression in the retina. Conclusions/interpretation Genetic variation near GRB2 on chromosome 17q25.1 is associated with sight-threatening diabetic retinopathy. Several genes in this region are promising candidates and in particular GRB2 is upregulated during retinal stress and neovascularisation.

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Aim Non-radiographic axial spondyloarthritis (nr-axSpA) is axial inflammatory arthritis where plain radiographic damage is not evident. An unknown proportion of these patients will progress to ankylosing spondylitis (AS). The increasing recognition of nr-axSpA has been greatly assisted by the widespread use of magnetic resonance imaging. The aim of this article was to construct a set of consensus statements based on a literature review to guide investigation and promote best management of nr-axSpA. Methods A literature review using Medline was conducted covering the major investigation modalities and treatment options available. A group of rheumatologists and a radiologist with expertise in investigation and management of SpA reviewed the literature and formulated a set of consensus statements. The Grade system encompassing the level of evidence and strength of recommendation was used. The opinion of a patient with nr-axSpA and a nurse experienced in the care of SpA patients was also sought and included. Results The literature review found few studies specifically addressing nr-axSpA, or if these patients were included, their results were often not separately reported. Fourteen consensus statements covering investigation and management of nr-axSpA were formulated. The level of agreement was high and ranged from 8.1 to 9.8. Treatment recommendations vary little with established AS, but this is primarily due to the lack of available evidence on the specific treatment of nr-axSpA. Conclusion The consensus statements aim to improve the diagnosis and management of nr-axSpA. We aim to raise awareness of this condition by the public and doctors and promote appropriate investigation and management.

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Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk–outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990–2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8–58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1–43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5–89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

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Objective: To assess the value of s-methylmethionine sulphonium chloride (SMMSC) (200 mg/kg) on nutritional performance of pigs and as prevention or therapy for oesophagogastric ulcers. Design: Sixty pigs from a high health status herd with continuing oesophagogastric ulcer problems were endoscopically assessed for the presence or absence of oesophagogastric ulcers. Forty-eight pigs were then selected and allocated according to an initial oesophagogastric epithelial (ulcer score) classification to replicated treatment groups in a 2 × 2 factorial design. Weight gain and feed intake were measured over 49 d, after which pigs were killed and stomachs were collected, re-examined and scored for oesophagogastric ulceration. Results: There was no difference over the 49 d in weight gain, feed intake and backfat in pigs with and without SMMSC supplementation between pigs with or without fully developed oesophagogastric ulcers at the start of the study. In pigs with an initially low ulcer score, feeding SMMSC did not prevent further oesophagogastric ulcer development. No significant effect of SMMSC was apparent when final mean oesophagogastric ulcer scores were compared in pigs with existing high ulcer score. However, further analysis of the changes in individual pig oesophagogastric ulcer scores during the experiment showed that the observed reductions in scores of the high ulcer group was significantly different from all other groups. Conclusion: This study has indicated that supplementation of pig diets with SMMSC cannot be justified unless the slight ulcer score improvement observed could be translated to some commercial production advantage such as a reduction in pig mortalities due to oesophagogastric ulcers. This study has further confirmed the benefit of endoscopy as a tool to enable objective assessment of oesophageal gastric health.

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Tutkimuksessani selvitän portugalilaisrunoilija Fernando Pessoan (1888-1935) heteronyymejä ja ortonyymiä modernistis-romanttisena myyttinä. Myytin piirteet paljastuivat Pessoan omia kirjoituksia ja runoja tutkimalla ja käyttämällä apuna Pessoa-tutkimusta. Tutkimusaineistonani ovat Pessoa-ortonyymin Mensagem-runoelma ja ”Autopsykografia”-runo, Álvaro de Campoksen vuonna 1917 Portugal Futurista –lehdessä julkaistu ”Ultimatum”-runomanifesti, Alberto Caeiron ”Guardador de Rebanhos”-runosikermä sekä Ricardo Reisin ”Oodit”-kokonaisuuteen kuuluvat runot: n:ro 59 ”Acima da verdade estão os deuses” (”Totuuden yläpuolella ovat jumalat”, 1914), n:ro 66 ”Olho os campos, Neera” (”Katson peltoja, Neera”, 1917), n:ro 181 ”Amo o que vejo” (”Rakastan sitä mitä näen”, 1934), n:ro 175 ”Estas só. Ninguem o sabe.” (”Olet yksin. Kukaan ei tiedä sitä”, 1933). Tutkimuksessani romanttisen runouden keskeisinä piirteinä pidetään uskoa taiteilijaneroon (geniukseen), mimeettiseen illuusioon (taide tavoittelee ulkoisen todellisuuden toisintamista mahdollisimman autenttisena) ja tekijän ja kokijan eli subjektin ja objektin erottamiseen toisistaan. Käsitänkin modernin runon tutkimuksessani hylänneen monia entisiä käsityksiä ja vastakkainasetteluja muun muassa tekijän ja ulkopuolisen maailman, mielen ja kielen välillä. Näitä moderneja ”rikkomuksia” identifioin ja määrittelen Pessoan heteronyymien runoudessa. Tutkimukseni apukäsitteitä ovat vilpittömyys ja autenttisuus, jotka kuvaavat runoilijan suhdetta itseensä ja muihin ja joita on pohtinut mm. Lionel Trilling teoksessaan Sincerity and authencity. Romanttisessa runoudessa suhde yhteisöön muodostui ensisijaisesti suhteessa omaan itseen, yhtenäiseen minuuteen nojaavan vilpittömyyden kautta, modernissa runoudessa hajanaisuutta ja yksilön suhdetta myös yhteisöön korostavan autenttisuuden avulla. Tutkimuksessani havaitsin, että Pessoa on jo tuotantonsa alusta lähtien kehittänyt tietoisesti modernistis-romanttista myyttiä – päätelmää tukivat niin Pessoan omat kirjoitukset kuin runoanalyysini. Pessoa ennusti ensimmäisen kerran romanttiseen nerotaiteilijaan vertautuvaa ”supra-Camõesia” ”A nova poesia Portuguesa Sociologicamente considerada” –esseessään vuonna 1912. Campoksen ”Ultimatum”-manifestissa puhuja uskoi muutaman useita kymmeniä persoonallisuuksia hallitsevan ”Synteesi-Ihmisen” tai ”supra-Camõesin” ilmestymiseen. ”Synteesi-Ihmisen” oli määrä palauttaa kukoistukseensa lamaantuneessa tilassa ollut Portugalin kirjallisuus uuteen kukoistukseensa. Eräänlaisen perustan koko myytille loi vuotta ennen Pessoan kuolemaa julkaistu Mensagem (suom. Viesti), jossa runoilija esittää saudosistisen ja sebastianistisen perustan. Teixeira de Pascoaesin kehittämä saudosismi näkyy Mensagemissa uskona Portugalin valtion perustajien ja laajentajien – löytöretkeilijöiden – edustamaan voittoisaan lusofoniseen mentaliteettiin, jonka Pessoa asettaa niin kansakunnan, runoilijan kuin ihmisen ihanteeksi. Toinen Mensagemissa esiintyvä myytin rakennusaine on sebastianismi eli usko kuningas Sebastianin (1554-1578) paluuseen. ”Synteesi-Ihminen”/”supra-Camões” oli reinkarnoitunut Sebastian, jonka piti palauttaa kansa ja kulttuuri kukoistukseensa lusofonisen valloittajamentaliteetin avulla. ”Autopsykografia”-runossaan Pessoa esittää puolestaan runoilijaa koskevan modernin poetiikan ongelmineen: esittävyyteen perustuva taide etäännyttää kokijan – taiteilijan – aina väistämättä ensimmäisestä, spontaanista ja luonnollisesta kokemuksesta ja tekee hänestä teeskentelijän ja simulakrumien (Baudrillard), toisen tason merkityksen tuottajan. ”Autopsykografian” moderni poetiikka koskee myös lukijaa, joka ei tavoita runoilijan välittämää merkitystä vaan kolmannen tason merkityksen. ”Autopsykografian” runous- ja ihmiskäsitys on moderni: runoilija on ammattimainen teeskentelijä, lähtökohtaisesti vilpillinen ja epäautenttinen. Pessoa ja Campos edustavat Pessoan objektiivisia heteronyymejä ja myytin modernia puolta. Pessoan subjektiiviset heteronyymit Reis ja Caeiro täydentävät objektiviisia, modernin ihmisen ahdistusta ja levottomuutta ilmaisseita Pessoaa ja Camposta ollen luonteeltaan romanttisia vilpittömyyden kannattajia. Caeiro arvosti näköaistia yli muiden aistien. Hänen tavoitteenaan oli katsoa aina kuin ensimmäistä kertaa, spontaanisti ja välittömästi kuin lapsi. Reis puolestaan korosti harmoniaa jumalten, ihmisten ja luonnon välillä ja uskoi kohtuullisiin aistinautintoihin. Molemmat muodostivat Pessoan myytin romanttisen puolen yhteisessä halussaan hylätä sosiaaliset roolit ja opetukset ja palata kohti yksilöllistä minää. Vilpittömyys ja autenttisuus ovat Caeiron ja Reisin ohjeita runoilijalle ja ihmiselle. Objektiiviset ja subjektiiviset heteronyymit yhdessä muodostavat modernistis-romanttisen myytin, joka kokonaisuudessaan on looginen: objektiiviset heteronyymit esittivät teeskentelyn, vilpillisyyden ja moderniuden ongelmat; subjektiiviset tarjosivat ratkaisua niihin, poisopettelua sosiaalisista rooleista ja rohkeutta mennä kohti omaa yksilöllistä minuutta.

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We study which factors in terms of trading environment and trader characteristics determine individual information acquisition in experimental asset markets. Traders with larger endowments, existing inconclusive information, lower risk aversion, and less experience in financial markets tend to acquire more information. Overall, we find that traders overacquire information, so that informed traders on average obtain negative profits net of information costs. Information acquisition and the associated losses do not diminish over time. This overacquisition phenomenon is inconsistent with predictions of rational expectations equilibrium, and we argue it resembles the overdissipation results from the contest literature. We find that more acquired information in the market leads to smaller differences between fundamental asset values and prices. Thus, the overacquisition phenomenon is a novel explanation for the high forecasting accuracy of prediction markets.

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The basolateral amygdala (BLA) is a complex brain region associated with processing emotional states, such as fear, anxiety, and stress. Some aspects of these emotional states are driven by the network activity of synaptic connections, derived from both local circuitry and projections to the BLA from other regions. Although the synaptic physiology and general morphological characteristics are known for many individual cell types within the BLA, the combination of morphological, electrophysiological, and distribution of neurochemical GABAergic synapses in a three-dimensional neuronal arbor has not been reported for single neurons from this region. The aim of this study was to assess differences in morphological characteristics of BLA principal cells and interneurons, quantify the distribution of GABAergic neurochemical synapses within the entire neuronal arbor of each cell type, and determine whether GABAergic synaptic density correlates with electrophysiological recordings of inhibitory postsynaptic currents. We show that BLA principal neurons form complex dendritic arborizations, with proximal dendrites having fewer spines but higher densities of neurochemical GABAergic synapses compared with distal dendrites. Furthermore, we found that BLA interneurons exhibited reduced dendritic arbor lengths and spine densities but had significantly higher densities of putative GABAergic synapses compared with principal cells, which was correlated with an increased frequency of spontaneous inhibitory postsynaptic currents. The quantification of GABAergic connectivity, in combination with morphological and electrophysiological measurements of the BLA cell types, is the first step toward a greater understanding of how fear and stress lead to changes in morphology, local connectivity, and/or synaptic reorganization of the BLA.

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Alcohol dependence is a debilitating disorder with current therapies displaying limited efficacy and/or compliance. Consequently, there is a critical need for improved pharmacotherapeutic strategies to manage alcohol use disorders (AUDs). Previous studies have shown that the development of alcohol dependence involves repeated cycles of binge-like ethanol intake and abstinence. Therefore, we used a model of binge-ethanol consumption (drinking-in-the-dark) in mice to test the effects of compounds known to modify the activity of neurotransmitters implicated in alcohol addiction. From this, we have identified the FDA-approved antihypertensive drug pindolol, as a potential candidate for the management of AUDs. We show that the efficacy of pindolol to reduce ethanol consumption is enhanced following long-term (12-weeks) binge-ethanol intake, compared to short-term (4-weeks) intake. Furthermore, pindolol had no effect on locomotor activity or consumption of the natural reward sucrose. Because pindolol acts as a dual beta-adrenergic antagonist and 5-HT1A/1B partial agonist, we examined its effect on spontaneous synaptic activity in the basolateral amygdala (BLA), a brain region densely innervated by serotonin- and norepinephrine-containing fibres. Pindolol increased spontaneous excitatory post-synaptic current frequency in BLA principal neurons from long-term ethanol consuming mice but not naïve mice. Additionally, this effect was blocked by the 5-HT1A/1B receptor antagonist methiothepin, suggesting that altered serotonergic activity in the BLA may contribute to the efficacy of pindolol to reduce ethanol intake following long-term exposure. Although further mechanistic investigations are required, this study demonstrates the potential of pindolol as a new treatment option for AUDs that can be fast-tracked into human clinical studies.

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We present substantial evidence for the existence of a bias in the distribution of births of leading US politicians in favour of those who were the eldest in their cohort at school. This result adds to the research on the long-term effects of relative age among peers at school. We discuss parametric and non-parametric tests to identify this effect, and we show that it is not driven by measurement error, redshirting or a sorting effect of highly educated parents. The magnitude of the effect that we estimate is larger than what other studies on ‘relative age effects’ have found for broader populations but is in general consistent with research that looks at professional sportsmen. We also find that relative age does not seem to correlate with the quality of elected politicians.

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The modern diet has become highly sweetened, resulting in unprecedented levels of sugar consumption, particularly among adolescents. While chronic long-term sugar intake is known to contribute to the development of metabolic disorders including obesity and type II diabetes, little is known regarding the direct consequences of long-term, binge-like sugar consumption on the brain. Because sugar can cause the release of dopamine in the nucleus accumbens (NAc) similarly to drugs of abuse, we investigated changes in the morphology of neurons in this brain region following short- (4 weeks) and long-term (12 weeks) binge-like sucrose consumption using an intermittent two-bottle choice paradigm. We used Golgi-Cox staining to impregnate medium spiny neurons (MSNs) from the NAc core and shell of short- and long-term sucrose consuming rats and compared these to age-matched water controls. We show that prolonged binge-like sucrose consumption significantly decreased the total dendritic length of NAc shell MSNs compared to age-matched control rats. We also found that the restructuring of these neurons resulted primarily from reduced distal dendritic complexity. Conversely, we observed increased spine densities at the distal branch orders of NAc shell MSNs from long-term sucrose consuming rats. Combined, these results highlight the neuronal effects of prolonged binge-like intake of sucrose on NAc shell MSN morphology.

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Accurate characterization and reporting of organic photovoltaic (OPV) device performance remains one of the important challenges in the field. The large spread among the efficiencies of devices with the same structure reported by different groups is significantly caused by different procedures and equipment used during testing. The presented article addresses this issue by offering a new method of device testing using “suitcase sample” approach combined with outdoor testing that limits the diversity of the equipment, and a strict measurement protocol. A round robin outdoor characterization of roll-to-roll coated OPV cells and modules conducted among 46 laboratories worldwide is presented, where the samples and the testing equipment were integrated in a compact suitcase that served both as a sample transportation tool and as a holder and test equipment during testing. In addition, an internet based coordination was used via plasticphotovoltaics.org that allowed fast and efficient communication among participants and provided a controlled reporting format for the results that eased the analysis of the data. The reported deviations among the laboratories were limited to 5% when compared to the Si reference device integrated in the suitcase and were up to 8% when calculated using the local irradiance data. Therefore, this method offers a fast, cheap and efficient tool for sample sharing and testing that allows conducting outdoor measurements of OPV devices in a reproducible manner.