Coherent forecasting of multiple-decrement life tables: a test using Japanese cause of death data

Planners in public and private institutions would like coherent forecasts of the components of age-specic mortality, such as causes of death. This has been di cult to achieve because the relative values of the forecast components often fail to behave in a way that is coherent with historical experience. In addition, when the group forecasts are combined the result is often incompatible with an all-groups forecast. It has been shown that cause-specic mortality forecasts are pessimistic when compared with all-cause forecasts (Wilmoth, 1995). This paper abandons the conventional approach of using log mortality rates and forecasts the density of deaths in the life table. Since these values obey a unit sum constraint for both conventional single-decrement life tables (only one absorbing state) and multiple-decrement tables (more than one absorbing state), they are intrinsically relative rather than absolute values across decrements as well as ages. Using the methods of Compositional Data Analysis pioneered by Aitchison (1986), death densities are transformed into the real space so that the full range of multivariate statistics can be applied, then back-transformed to positive values so that the unit sum constraint is honoured. The structure of the best-known, single-decrement mortality-rate forecasting model, devised by Lee and Carter (1992), is expressed in compositional form and the results from the two models are compared. The compositional model is extended to a multiple-decrement form and used to forecast mortality by cause of death for Japan

INFO2009 Stage Test Orientation

notes and slides to guide preparation for stage test

Normative Data for Healthy Middle-Aged and Elderly Performance on the Addenbrooke Cognitive Examination-Revised

Objective: To provide normative data for healthy middle-aged and elderly Brazilians' performance on the Addenbrooke Cognitive Examination-Revised (ACE-R) and to investigate the effects of age, sex, and schooling on test performance. Background: The ACE-R is a brief cognitive battery that assesses various aspects of cognition. Its 5 subdomains (Attention and Orientation, Memory, Verbal Fluency, Language, and Visuospatial Abilities) are commonly impaired in Alzheimer disease or frontotemporal dementia. Methods: We evaluated 144 cognitively healthy volunteers (50% men, 50% women) aged 50 to 93 years, with 4 to 24 years of schooling. We divided the participants into 4 age groups, each of which was then stratified into 3 groups according to years of education. We assessed all participants with the ACE-R, the Mattis Dementia Rating Scale, and the Cornell Scale for Depression in Dementia. Results: Years of education affected all ACE-R subscores. Age influenced the Verbal Fluency subscore (P < 0.001) and the ACE-R total score (P < 0.05). Sex affected the Attention and Orientation (P = 0.037) and Mini-Mental State Examination subscores (P = 0.048), but not the ACE-R total score (P > 0.05). Conclusions: The performance of healthy middle-aged and elderly individuals on the ACE-R battery is strongly influenced by education and, to a lesser extent, by age. These findings are of special relevance in countries with populations that have marked heterogeneity in educational levels.

Religiosity, family orientation, and life satisfaction of adolescents in four countries

This study examined the rarely investigated interplay between religiosity, family orientation, and life satisfaction of adolescents across four countries with a Christian tradition and different religious contexts.A mediation relationship between religiosity and life satisfaction through family orientation moderated by the country context of religiosity was examined. In a sample of 1,077 adolescents from France (n = 172), Germany (n = 270), Poland (n = 348), and the United States (n = 287), we found that in all cultures, religiosity had a positive impact on adolescents’ family orientation, which was in turn related to a higher life satisfaction.This link was stronger in cultures with a high overall religiosity (Poland and the United States) as compared to one of the two cultures with the lowest importance of religion (Germany).

Accelerated life test of high luminosity AlGaInP LEDs

Specific tests to assess reliability of high luminosity AlInGaP LED for outdoor applications are needed. In this paper tests to propose a model involving three parameters: temperature, humidity and current have been carried out. Temperature, humidity and current accelerated model has been proposed to evaluate the reliability of this type of LED. Degradation and catastrophic failure mechanisms have been analyzed. Finally we analyze the effect of serial resistance in power luminosity degradation.

Preliminary temperature Accelerated Life Test (ALT) on III-V commercial concentrator triple-junction solar cells

A quantitative temperature accelerated life test on sixty GaInP/GaInAs/Ge triple-junction commercial concentrator solar cells is being carried out. The final objective of this experiment is to evaluate the reliability, warranty period, and failure mechanism of high concentration solar cells in a moderate period of time. The acceleration of the degradation is realized by subjecting the solar cells at temperatures markedly higher than the nominal working temperature under a concentrator Three experiments at three different temperatures are necessary in order to obtain the acceleration factor which relates the time at the stress level with the time at nominal working conditions. . However, up to now only the test at the highest temperature has finished. Therefore, we can not provide complete reliability information but we have analyzed the life data and the failure mode of the solar cells inside the climatic chamber at the highest temperature. The failures have been all of them catastrophic. In fact, the solar cells have turned into short circuits. We have fitted the failure distribution to a two parameters Weibull function. The failures are wear-out type. We have observed that the busbar and the surrounding fingers are completely deteriorate

Preliminary temperature accelerated life test (ALT) on lattice mismatched triple-junction concentrator solar cells-on-carriers

A temperature accelerated life test on concentrator lattice mismatched Ga0.37In0.63P/Ga0.83In0.17As/Ge triple-junction solar cells-on-carrier is being carried out. The solar cells have been tested at three different temperatures: 125, 145 and 165°C and the nominal photo-current condition (500X) is emulated by injecting current in darkness. The final objective of these tests is to evaluate the reliability, warranty period, and failure mechanism of these solar cells in a moderate period of time. Up to now only the test at 165°C has finished. Therefore, we cannot provide complete reliability information, but we have carried out preliminary data and failure analysis with the current results.

Development of a revised version of the NHTSA Motorcycle Operator Skill Test (MOST II). Final report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Washington, D.C.

Orientation seminars for revised NHTSA curriculum packages. Final report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Washington, D.C.

The whole works of Roger Ascham, now first collected and revised, with a life of the author;

Vols. 1-2, 1865; v. 3, 1864.

Life and energy; an attempt at a new definition of life, with applications to morals and religion. A revised account of four addresses given at the Polytechnic Institute, Regent Street, London.

Mode of access: Internet.