Previsão em tempo atual de cheias com uso de sistema especialista difuso

Sistemas de previsão de cheias podem ser adequadamente utilizados quando o alcance é suficiente, em comparação com o tempo necessário para ações preventivas ou corretivas. Além disso, são fundamentalmente importantes a confiabilidade e a precisão das previsões. Previsões de níveis de inundação são sempre aproximações, e intervalos de confiança não são sempre aplicáveis, especialmente com graus de incerteza altos, o que produz intervalos de confiança muito grandes. Estes intervalos são problemáticos, em presença de níveis fluviais muito altos ou muito baixos. Neste estudo, previsões de níveis de cheia são efetuadas, tanto na forma numérica tradicional quanto na forma de categorias, para as quais utiliza-se um sistema especialista baseado em regras e inferências difusas. Metodologias e procedimentos computacionais para aprendizado, simulação e consulta são idealizados, e então desenvolvidos sob forma de um aplicativo (SELF – Sistema Especialista com uso de Lógica “Fuzzy”), com objetivo de pesquisa e operação. As comparações, com base nos aspectos de utilização para a previsão, de sistemas especialistas difusos e modelos empíricos lineares, revelam forte analogia, apesar das diferenças teóricas fundamentais existentes. As metodologias são aplicadas para previsão na bacia do rio Camaquã (15543 km2), para alcances entre 10 e 48 horas. Dificuldades práticas à aplicação são identificadas, resultando em soluções as quais constituem-se em avanços do conhecimento e da técnica. Previsões, tanto na forma numérica quanto categorizada são executadas com sucesso, com uso dos novos recursos. As avaliações e comparações das previsões são feitas utilizandose um novo grupo de estatísticas, derivadas das freqüências simultâneas de ocorrência de valores observados e preditos na mesma categoria, durante a simulação. Os efeitos da variação da densidade da rede são analisados, verificando-se que sistemas de previsão pluvio-hidrométrica em tempo atual são possíveis, mesmo com pequeno número de postos de aquisição de dados de chuva, para previsões sob forma de categorias difusas.

Uma abordagem híbrida para o problema de seleção de fornecedores em cadeia de suprimentos

This work presents a hybrid approach for the supplier selection problem in Supply Chain Management. We joined decision-making philosophy by researchers from business school and researchers from engineering in order to deal with the problem more extensively. We utilized traditional multicriteria decision-making methods, like AHP and TOPSIS, in order to evaluate alternatives according decision maker s preferences. The both techiniques were modeled by using definitions from the Fuzzy Sets Theory to deal with imprecise data. Additionally, we proposed a multiobjetive GRASP algorithm to perform an order allocation procedure between all pre-selected alternatives. These alternatives must to be pre-qualified on the basis of the AHP and TOPSIS methods before entering the LCR. Our allocation procedure has presented low CPU times for five pseudorandom instances, containing up to 1000 alternatives, as well as good values for all considered objectives. This way, we consider the proposed model as appropriate to solve the supplier selection problem in the SCM context. It can be used to help decision makers in reducing lead times, cost and risks in their supply chain. The proposed model can also improve firm s efficiency in relation to business strategies, according decision makers, even when a large number of alternatives must be considered, differently from classical models in purchasing literature

Otimização do fresamento de roscas internas com a técnica de interpolação helicoidal

In machining of internal threads, dedicated tools, known as taps, are needed for each profile type, diameter, and low cutting speed values are used when compared to main machining processes. This restriction in the cutting speed is associated with the difficulty of synchronizing the tool s rotation speed and feed velocity in the process. This fact restricts the flexibility and makes machining lead times longer when manufacturing of components with threads is required. An alternative to the constraints imposed by the tap is the thread milling with helical interpolation technique. The technique is the fusion of two movements: rotation and helical interpolation. The tools may have different configurations: a single edge or multiple edges (axial, radial or both). However, thread milling with helical interpolation technique is relatively new and there are limited studies on the subject, a fact which promotes challenges to its wide application in the manufacturing shop floor. The objective of this research is determine the performance of different types of tools in the thread milling with helical interpolation technique using hardened steel workpieces. In this sense, four tool configurations were used for threading milling in AISI 4340 quenched and tempered steel (40 HRC). The results showed that climb cut promoted a greater number of machined threads, regardless of tool configuration. The upcut milling causes chippings in cutting edge, while the climb cutting promotes abrasive wear. Another important point is that increase in hole diameter by tool diameter ratio increases tool lifetime

Dowscaling estocástico para extremos climáticos via interpolação espacial

Present day weather forecast models usually cannot provide realistic descriptions of local and particulary extreme weather conditions. However, for lead times of about a small number of days, they provide reliable forecast of the atmospheric circulation that encompasses the subscale processes leading to extremes. Hence, forecasts of extreme events can only be achieved through a combination of dynamical and statistical analysis methods, where a stable and significant statistical model based on prior physical reasoning establishes posterior statistical-dynamical model between the local extremes and the large scale circulation. Here we present the development and application of such a statistical model calibration on the besis of extreme value theory, in order to derive probabilistic forecast for extreme local temperature. The dowscaling applies to NCEP/NCAR re-analysis, in order to derive estimates of daily temperature at Brazilian northeastern region weather stations

Combined cycle versus one thousand diesel power plants: pollutant emissions, ecological efficiency and economic analysis

The increase in the use of natural gas in Brazil has stimulated public and private sectors to analyse the possibility of using combined cycle systems for generation of electrical energy. Gas turbine combined cycle power plants are becoming increasingly common due to their high efficiency, short lead times, and ability to meet environmental standards. Power is produced in a generator linked directly to the gas turbine. The gas turbine exhaust gases are sent to a heat recovery steam generator to produce superheated steam that can be used in a steam turbine to produce additional power. In this paper a comparative study between a 1000 MW combined cycle power plant and 1000 kW diesel power plant is presented. In first step, the energetic situation in Brazil, the needs of the electric sector modification and the needs of demand management and integrated means planning are clarified. In another step the characteristics of large and small thermoelectric power plants that use natural gas and diesel fuel, respectively, are presented. The ecological efficiency levels of each type of power plant is considered in the discussion, presenting the emissions of particulate material, sulphur dioxide (SO2), carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOx). (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Time-based competitiveness in Brazil: whys and hows

The objective of the paper is to report research carried out over two years aiming at developing a framework to support the management of manufacturing organizations for whom reducing throughput time is strategically important, either because they compete based on short lead times or because they choose to pursue other objectives such as cost reduction by means of reducing their manufacturing cycle times. A step-by-step method is proposed based on the analyses of a number of Brazilian best practice cases (all manufacturing companies and all part of large multi-national corporations) and on the relevant literature.

Theory of constraints contributions to outbound logistics

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to systematically describe the key practical contributions of the theory of constraints (TOC) to outbound (distribution) logistics. Design/methodology/approach: Based on theoretical research, this paper presents the main practical aspects of the approach suggested by TOC to outbound logistics and discusses the assumptions upon which it is based. Findings: This paper corroborates the thesis defended by TOC, according to which the current ways of managing outbound logistics, based mainly on sales forecasts lead to difficulties in handling trade-offs between logistics (stock and transportation) costs and stock-out levels. Research limitations/implications: The reported research is of a theoretical nature. Practical implications: TOC offers a proposal that is complementary in many aspects and very distinguishable in others about the way some key processes and elements of supply chain management (SCM) are managed, especially outbound logistics. Originality/value: Considering the dearth of papers dealing with the conceptual articulation and organization of this subject, the paper contributes to systematize the knowledge currently available about the contributions of the TOC to outbound logistics, highlighting the practical implications of applying TOC to outbound logistics. © Emerald Group Publishing Limited.

The challenge of industrial competitiveness

Includes bibliography

ALMASat-1, ALMASat-EO and beyond: evolution of structural concepts and technologies towards multifunctional structures for microsatellites

Multifunctional Structures (MFS) represent one of the most promising disruptive technologies in the space industry. The possibility to merge spacecraft primary and secondary structures as well as attitude control, power management and onboard computing functions is expected to allow for mass, volume and integration effort savings. Additionally, this will bring the modular construction of spacecraft to a whole new level, by making the development and integration of spacecraft modules, or building blocks, leaner, reducing lead times from commissioning to launch from the current 3-6 years down to the order of 10 months, as foreseen by the latest Operationally Responsive Space (ORS) initiatives. Several basic functionalities have been integrated and tested in specimens of various natures over the last two decades. However, a more integrated, system-level approach was yet to be developed. The activity reported in this thesis was focused on the system-level approach to multifunctional structures for spacecraft, namely in the context of nano- and micro-satellites. This thesis documents the work undertaken in the context of the MFS program promoted by the European Space Agency under the Technology Readiness Program (TRP): a feasibility study, including specimens manufacturing and testing. The work sequence covered a state of the art review, with particular attention to traditional modular architectures implemented in ALMASat-1 and ALMASat-EO satellites, and requirements definition, followed by the development of a modular multi-purpose nano-spacecraft concept, and finally by the design, integration and testing of integrated MFS specimens. The approach for the integration of several critical functionalities into nano-spacecraft modules was validated and the overall performance of the system was verified through relevant functional and environmental testing at University of Bologna and University of Southampton laboratories.

Evaluation of flood risk in response to climate variability

Standard procedures for forecasting flood risk (Bulletin 17B) assume annual maximum flood (AMF) series are stationary, meaning the distribution of flood flows is not significantly affected by climatic trends/cycles, or anthropogenic activities within the watershed. Historical flood events are therefore considered representative of future flood occurrences, and the risk associated with a given flood magnitude is modeled as constant over time. However, in light of increasing evidence to the contrary, this assumption should be reconsidered, especially as the existence of nonstationarity in AMF series can have significant impacts on planning and management of water resources and relevant infrastructure. Research presented in this thesis quantifies the degree of nonstationarity evident in AMF series for unimpaired watersheds throughout the contiguous U.S., identifies meteorological, climatic, and anthropogenic causes of this nonstationarity, and proposes an extension of the Bulletin 17B methodology which yields forecasts of flood risk that reflect climatic influences on flood magnitude. To appropriately forecast flood risk, it is necessary to consider the driving causes of nonstationarity in AMF series. Herein, large-scale climate patterns—including El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)—are identified as influencing factors on flood magnitude at numerous stations across the U.S. Strong relationships between flood magnitude and associated precipitation series were also observed for the majority of sites analyzed in the Upper Midwest and Northeastern regions of the U.S. Although relationships between flood magnitude and associated temperature series are not apparent, results do indicate that temperature is highly correlated with the timing of flood peaks. Despite consideration of watersheds classified as unimpaired, analyses also suggest that identified change-points in AMF series are due to dam construction, and other types of regulation and diversion. Although not explored herein, trends in AMF series are also likely to be partially explained by changes in land use and land cover over time. Results obtained herein suggest that improved forecasts of flood risk may be obtained using a simple modification of the Bulletin 17B framework, wherein the mean and standard deviation of the log-transformed flows are modeled as functions of climate indices associated with oceanic-atmospheric patterns (e.g. AMO, ENSO, NAO, and PDO) with lead times between 3 and 9 months. Herein, one-year ahead forecasts of the mean and standard deviation, and subsequently flood risk, are obtained by applying site specific multivariate regression models, which reflect the phase and intensity of a given climate pattern, as well as possible impacts of coupling of the climate cycles. These forecasts of flood risk are compared with forecasts derived using the existing Bulletin 17B model; large differences in the one-year ahead forecasts are observed in some locations. The increased knowledge of the inherent structure of AMF series and an improved understanding of physical and/or climatic causes of nonstationarity gained from this research should serve as insight for the formulation of a physical-casual based statistical model, incorporating both climatic variations and human impacts, for flood risk over longer planning horizons (e.g., 10-, 50, 100-years) necessary for water resources design, planning, and management.

Timing of initiation of antiretroviral therapy in AIDS-free HIV-1-infected patients: a collaborative analysis of 18 HIV cohort studies

BACKGROUND: The CD4 cell count at which combination antiretroviral therapy should be started is a central, unresolved issue in the care of HIV-1-infected patients. In the absence of randomised trials, we examined this question in prospective cohort studies. METHODS: We analysed data from 18 cohort studies of patients with HIV. Antiretroviral-naive patients from 15 of these studies were eligible for inclusion if they had started combination antiretroviral therapy (while AIDS-free, with a CD4 cell count less than 550 cells per microL, and with no history of injecting drug use) on or after Jan 1, 1998. We used data from patients followed up in seven of the cohorts in the era before the introduction of combination therapy (1989-95) to estimate distributions of lead times (from the first CD4 cell count measurement in an upper range to the upper threshold of a lower range) and unseen AIDS and death events (occurring before the upper threshold of a lower CD4 cell count range is reached) in the absence of treatment. These estimations were used to impute completed datasets in which lead times and unseen AIDS and death events were added to data for treated patients in deferred therapy groups. We compared the effect of deferred initiation of combination therapy with immediate initiation on rates of AIDS and death, and on death alone, in adjacent CD4 cell count ranges of width 100 cells per microL. FINDINGS: Data were obtained for 21 247 patients who were followed up during the era before the introduction of combination therapy and 24 444 patients who were followed up from the start of treatment. Deferring combination therapy until a CD4 cell count of 251-350 cells per microL was associated with higher rates of AIDS and death than starting therapy in the range 351-450 cells per microL (hazard ratio [HR] 1.28, 95% CI 1.04-1.57). The adverse effect of deferring treatment increased with decreasing CD4 cell count threshold. Deferred initiation of combination therapy was also associated with higher mortality rates, although effects on mortality were less marked than effects on AIDS and death (HR 1.13, 0.80-1.60, for deferred initiation of treatment at CD4 cell count 251-350 cells per microL compared with initiation at 351-450 cells per microL). INTERPRETATION: Our results suggest that 350 cells per microL should be the minimum threshold for initiation of antiretroviral therapy, and should help to guide physicians and patients in deciding when to start treatment.

Präzisionsguss auf Basis von RP-Matritzen

Einige mit geringen Schichtstärken arbeitende Concept Modellierer und Rapid Prototyping Anlagen können Modelle für das Feingießverfahren mit verlorenem Modell erzeugen. Verkörpern die verlorenen Modelle die Geometrie von Formeinsätzen für Spritzgießwerkzeuge, können über den Feinguss Formeinsätze aus Aluminium hergestellt werden. Untersuchungen zielten dabei auf die detailgetreue Umsetzung filigraner Teile mit Freiformgeometrien. Kleine Abmessungen im Grenzbereich zwischen klassischem Formenbau und Mikrofertigung wurden dabei realisiert. Das Fräsen dieser Formeinsätze oder Elektroden ist zum Teil nicht möglich oder führt zu erhöhtem Aufwand. Gleichzeitig konnten sehr kurze Durchlaufzeiten erreicht werden. Auf demselben Weg konnten auch Senkerodierelektroden gegossen werden, die beim Aufbau von Werkzeugen höherer Lebensdauer genutzt wurden. Werden unterschiedliche Varianten oder mehrere identische Einsätze oder Elektroden zum Beispiel für Mehrfachwerkzeuge benötigt, werden die Zeitvorteile noch deutlicher. Die Funktion beider dargestellter Wege konnte durch den Spritzguss von Versuchsserien erfolgreich demonstriert werden.

Ansätze zum Management der Additive Manufacturing Supply Chain

Da sich Additive Manufacturing (AM) von traditionellen Produktionsverfahren unterscheidet, entstehen neue Möglichkeiten im Produktdesign und im Supply Chain Setup. Die Auswirkungen der Aufhebung traditionellen Restriktionen im Produktdesign werden unter dem Begriff „Design for Additive Manufacturing“ intensiv diskutiert. In gleicher Weise werden durch AM Restriktionen im traditionellen Supply Chain Setup aufgehoben. Insbesondere sind die folgenden Verbesserungen möglich: Reduktion von Losgrössen und Lieferzeiten, bedarfsgerechte Produktion auf Abruf, dezentrale Produktion, Customization auf Ebene Bauteil und kontinuierliche Weiterentwicklung von Bauteilen. Viele Firmen investieren nicht selbst in die AM Technologien, sondern kaufen Bauteile bei Lieferanten. Um das Potential der AM Supply Chain mit Lieferanten umzusetzen, entstehen die folgenden Anforderungen an AM Einkaufsprozesse. Erstens muss der Aufwand pro Bestellung reduziert werden. Zweitens brauchen AM Nutzer einen direkten Zugang zu den Lieferanten ohne Umweg über die Einkaufsabteilung. Drittens müssen geeignete AM Lieferanten einfach identifiziert werden können. Viertens muss der Wechsel von Lieferanten mit möglichst geringem Aufwand möglich sein. Ein mögliche Lösung sind AM spezifische E-Procurement System um diese Anforderungen zu erfüllen

Achieving cost competitiveness with an agent based integrated process planning and production scheduling system

From a manufacturing perspective, the efficiency of manufacturing operations (such as process planning and production scheduling) are the key element for enhancing manufacturing competence. Process planning and production scheduling functions have been traditionally treated as two separate activities, and have resulted in a range of inefficiencies. These include infeasible process plans, non-available/overloaded resources, high production costs, long production lead times, and so on. Above all, it is unlikely that the dynamic changes can be efficiently dealt with. Despite much research has been conducted to integrate process planning and production scheduling to generate optimised solutions to improve manufacturing efficiency, there is still a gap to achieve the competence required for the current global competitive market. In this research, the concept of multi-agent system (MAS) is adopted as a means to address the aforementioned gap. A MAS consists of a collection of intelligent autonomous agents able to solve complex problems. These agents possess their individual objectives and interact with each other to fulfil the global goal. This paper describes a novel use of an autonomous agent system to facilitate the integration of process planning and production scheduling functions to cope with unpredictable demands, in terms of uncertainties in product mix and demand pattern. The novelty lies with the currency-based iterative agent bidding mechanism to allow process planning and production scheduling options to be evaluated simultaneously, so as to search for an optimised, cost-effective solution. This agent based system aims to achieve manufacturing competence by means of enhancing the flexibility and agility of manufacturing enterprises.

Computer integrated system for form-roll manufacture

Computer integrated manufacture has brought about great advances in manufacturing technology and its recognition is world wide. Cold roll forming of thin-walled sections, and in particular the design and manufacture of form-rolls, the special tooling used in the cold roll forming process, is but one such area where computer integrated manufacture can make a positive contribution. The work reported in this thesis, concerned with the development of an integrated manufacturing system for assisting the design and manufacture of form-rolls, was undertaken in collaboration with a leading manufacturer of thin-walled sections. A suit of computer programs, written in FORTRAN 77, have been developed to provide computer aids for every aspect of work in form-roll design and manufacture including cost estimation and stock control aids. The first phase of the development programme dealt with the establishment of CAD facilities for form-roll design, comprising the design of the finished section, the flower pattern, the roll design and the interactive roll editor program. Concerning the CAM facilities, dealt with in the second phase, an expert system roll machining processor and a general post-processor have been developed for considering the roll geometry and automatically generating NC tape programs for any required CNC lathe system. These programs have been successfully implemented, as an integrated manufacturing software system, on the VAX 11/750 super-minicomputer with graphics facilities for displaying drawings interactively on the terminal screen. The development of the integrated system has been found beneficial in all aspects of form-roll design and manufacture. Design and manufacturing lead times have been reduced by several weeks, quality has improved considerably and productivity has increased. The work has also demonstrated the promising nature of the expert systems approach to computer integrated manufacture.