Modelling dispersal behaviour on a fractal landscape

We use a spatially explicit population model to explore the population consequences of different habitat selection mechanisms on landscapes with fractal variation in habitat quality. We consider dispersal strategies ranging from random walks to perfect habitat selectors for two species of arboreal marsupial, the greater glider (Petauroides volans) and the mountain brushtail possum (Trichosurus caninus). In this model increasing habitat selection means individuals obtain higher quality territories, but experience increased mortality during dispersal. The net effect is that population sizes are smaller when individuals actively select habitat. We find positive relationships between habitat quality and population size can occur when individuals do not use information about the entire landscape when habitat quality is spatially autocorrelated. We also find that individual behaviour can mitigate the negative effects of spatial variation on population average survival and fecundity. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

A landscape-scale test of the predictive ability of a spatially explicit model for population viability analysis

1. Although population viability analysis (PVA) is widely employed, forecasts from PVA models are rarely tested. This study in a fragmented forest in southern Australia contrasted field data on patch occupancy and abundance for the arboreal marsupial greater glider Petauroides volans with predictions from a generic spatially explicit PVA model. This work represents one of the first landscape-scale tests of its type. 2. Initially we contrasted field data from a set of eucalypt forest patches totalling 437 ha with a naive null model in which forecasts of patch occupancy were made, assuming no fragmentation effects and based simply on remnant area and measured densities derived from nearby unfragmented forest. The naive null model predicted an average total of approximately 170 greater gliders, considerably greater than the true count (n = 81). 3. Congruence was examined between field data and predictions from PVA under several metapopulation modelling scenarios. The metapopulation models performed better than the naive null model. Logistic regression showed highly significant positive relationships between predicted and actual patch occupancy for the four scenarios (P = 0.001-0.006). When the model-derived probability of patch occupancy was high (0.50-0.75, 0.75-1.00), there was greater congruence between actual patch occupancy and the predicted probability of occupancy. 4. For many patches, probability distribution functions indicated that model predictions for animal abundance in a given patch were not outside those expected by chance. However, for some patches the model either substantially over-predicted or under-predicted actual abundance. Some important processes, such as inter-patch dispersal, that influence the distribution and abundance of the greater glider may not have been adequately modelled. 5. Additional landscape-scale tests of PVA models, on a wider range of species, are required to assess further predictions made using these tools. This will help determine those taxa for which predictions are and are not accurate and give insights for improving models for applied conservation management.

Reshaping the global agricultural landscape: perspectives from Brazil

This article highlights the main changes observed in Brazilian agriculture and analyzes the connections of the observed changes in global agriculture. My approach to the analysis focuses the main drivers of changes, where institutions play a central role. Three driving forces are are considered: first, the effects of global demand for food, fiber, and energy; second, the sustainability debate; and third, the bio-energy paradigm. Each driver presents both local as well as global effects. The article does not emphasize the impact changes in Brazil had on the global agricultural landscape but argues that the impacts run from local and global changes, which cannot be discussed separately.

Soil mineral genesis and distribution in a saline lake landscape of the Pantanal Wetland, Brazil

The origin of the saline lakes in the Pantanal wetland has been classically attributed to processes occurring in past periods. However, recent studies have suggested that saline water is currently forming from evaporative concentration of fresh water, which is provided annually by seasonal floods. Major elements (Ca, Mg, K) and alkalinity appear to be geochemically controlled during the concentration of waters and may be involved in the formation of carbonates and clay minerals around the saline lakes. The mineralogy of soils associated with a representative saline lake was investigated using XRD, TEM-EDS, and ICP-MS in order to identify the composition and genesis of the secondary minerals suspected to be involved in the control of major elements. The results showed that Ca, Mg, and K effectively undergo oversaturation and precipitation as the waters become more saline. These elements are incorporated in the authigenically formed carbonates, smectites, and micas surrounding the saline lake. The control of Ca occurs by precipitation of calcite and dolomite in nodules while Mg and K are mainly involved in the neoformation of Mg-smectites (stevensitic and saponitic minerals) and, probably, iron-enriched micas (ferric-illite) in surface and subsurface horizons. Therefore, our study confirms that the salinity of Pantanal, historically attributed to inheritance from former regimes, has a contribution of current processes. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Genetic Landscape of the Childhood Cancer Medulloblastoma

Medulloblastoma (MB) is the most common malignant brain tumor of children. To identify the genetic alterations in this tumor type, we searched for copy number alterations using high-density microarrays and sequenced all known protein-coding genes and microRNA genes using Sanger sequencing in a set of 22 MBs. We found that, on average, each tumor had 11 gene alterations, fewer by a factor of 5 to 10 than in the adult solid tumors that have been sequenced to date. In addition to alterations in the Hedgehog and Wnt pathways, our analysis led to the discovery of genes not previously known to be altered in MBs. Most notably, inactivating mutations of the histone-lysine N-methyltransferase genes MLL2 or MLL3 were identified in 16% of MB patients. These results demonstrate key differences between the genetic landscapes of adult and childhood cancers, highlight dysregulation of developmental pathways as an important mechanism underlying MBs, and identify a role for a specific type of histone methylation in human tumorigenesis.