Modelling tree population dynamics at the alpine and boreal tree-line ecotones in response to climate and land-use change

Summary Ecotones are sensitive to change because they contain high numbers of species living at the margin of their environmental tolerance. This is equally true of tree-lines, which are determined by attitudinal or latitudinal temperature gradients. In the current context of climate change, they are expected to undergo modifications in position, tree biomass and possibly species composition. Attitudinal and latitudinal tree-lines differ mainly in the steepness of the underlying temperature gradient: distances are larger at latitudinal tree-lines, which could have an impact on the ability of tree species to migrate in response to climate change. Aside from temperature, tree-lines are also affected on a more local level by pressure from human activities. These are also changing as a consequence of modifications in our societies and may interact with the effects of climate change. Forest dynamics models are often used for climate change simulations because of their mechanistic processes. The spatially-explicit model TreeMig was used as a base to develop a model specifically tuned for the northern European and Alpine tree-line ecotones. For the latter, a module for land-use change processes was also added. The temperature response parameters for the species in the model were first calibrated by means of tree-ring data from various species and sites at both tree-lines. This improved the growth response function in the model, but also lead to the conclusion that regeneration is probably more important than growth for controlling tree-line position and species' distributions. The second step was to implement the module for abandonment of agricultural land in the Alps, based on an existing spatial statistical model. The sensitivity of its most important variables was tested and the model's performance compared to other modelling approaches. The probability that agricultural land would be abandoned was strongly influenced by the distance from the nearest forest and the slope, bath of which are proxies for cultivation costs. When applied to a case study area, the resulting model, named TreeMig-LAb, gave the most realistic results. These were consistent with observed consequences of land-abandonment such as the expansion of the existing forest and closing up of gaps. This new model was then applied in two case study areas, one in the Swiss Alps and one in Finnish Lapland, under a variety of climate change scenarios. These were based on forecasts of temperature change over the next century by the IPCC and the HadCM3 climate model (ΔT: +1.3, +3.5 and +5.6 °C) and included a post-change stabilisation period of 300 years. The results showed radical disruptions at both tree-lines. With the most conservative climate change scenario, species' distributions simply shifted, but it took several centuries reach a new equilibrium. With the more extreme scenarios, some species disappeared from our study areas (e.g. Pinus cembra in the Alps) or dwindled to very low numbers, as they ran out of land into which they could migrate. The most striking result was the lag in the response of most species, independently from the climate change scenario or tree-line type considered. Finally, a statistical model of the effect of reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) browsing on the growth of Pinus sylvestris was developed, as a first step towards implementing human impacts at the boreal tree-line. The expected effect was an indirect one, as reindeer deplete the ground lichen cover, thought to protect the trees against adverse climate conditions. The model showed a small but significant effect of browsing, but as the link with the underlying climate variables was unclear and the model was not spatial, it was not usable as such. Developing the TreeMig-LAb model allowed to: a) establish a method for deriving species' parameters for the growth equation from tree-rings, b) highlight the importance of regeneration in determining tree-line position and species' distributions and c) improve the integration of social sciences into landscape modelling. Applying the model at the Alpine and northern European tree-lines under different climate change scenarios showed that with most forecasted levels of temperature increase, tree-lines would suffer major disruptions, with shifts in distributions and potential extinction of some tree-line species. However, these responses showed strong lags, so these effects would not become apparent before decades and could take centuries to stabilise. Résumé Les écotones son sensibles au changement en raison du nombre élevé d'espèces qui y vivent à la limite de leur tolérance environnementale. Ceci s'applique également aux limites des arbres définies par les gradients de température altitudinaux et latitudinaux. Dans le contexte actuel de changement climatique, on s'attend à ce qu'elles subissent des modifications de leur position, de la biomasse des arbres et éventuellement des essences qui les composent. Les limites altitudinales et latitudinales diffèrent essentiellement au niveau de la pente des gradients de température qui les sous-tendent les distance sont plus grandes pour les limites latitudinales, ce qui pourrait avoir un impact sur la capacité des espèces à migrer en réponse au changement climatique. En sus de la température, la limite des arbres est aussi influencée à un niveau plus local par les pressions dues aux activités humaines. Celles-ci sont aussi en mutation suite aux changements dans nos sociétés et peuvent interagir avec les effets du changement climatique. Les modèles de dynamique forestière sont souvent utilisés pour simuler les effets du changement climatique, car ils sont basés sur la modélisation de processus. Le modèle spatialement explicite TreeMig a été utilisé comme base pour développer un modèle spécialement adapté pour la limite des arbres en Europe du Nord et dans les Alpes. Pour cette dernière, un module servant à simuler des changements d'utilisation du sol a également été ajouté. Tout d'abord, les paramètres de la courbe de réponse à la température pour les espèces inclues dans le modèle ont été calibrées au moyen de données dendrochronologiques pour diverses espèces et divers sites des deux écotones. Ceci a permis d'améliorer la courbe de croissance du modèle, mais a également permis de conclure que la régénération est probablement plus déterminante que la croissance en ce qui concerne la position de la limite des arbres et la distribution des espèces. La seconde étape consistait à implémenter le module d'abandon du terrain agricole dans les Alpes, basé sur un modèle statistique spatial existant. La sensibilité des variables les plus importantes du modèle a été testée et la performance de ce dernier comparée à d'autres approches de modélisation. La probabilité qu'un terrain soit abandonné était fortement influencée par la distance à la forêt la plus proche et par la pente, qui sont tous deux des substituts pour les coûts liés à la mise en culture. Lors de l'application en situation réelle, le nouveau modèle, baptisé TreeMig-LAb, a donné les résultats les plus réalistes. Ceux-ci étaient comparables aux conséquences déjà observées de l'abandon de terrains agricoles, telles que l'expansion des forêts existantes et la fermeture des clairières. Ce nouveau modèle a ensuite été mis en application dans deux zones d'étude, l'une dans les Alpes suisses et l'autre en Laponie finlandaise, avec divers scénarios de changement climatique. Ces derniers étaient basés sur les prévisions de changement de température pour le siècle prochain établies par l'IPCC et le modèle climatique HadCM3 (ΔT: +1.3, +3.5 et +5.6 °C) et comprenaient une période de stabilisation post-changement climatique de 300 ans. Les résultats ont montré des perturbations majeures dans les deux types de limites de arbres. Avec le scénario de changement climatique le moins extrême, les distributions respectives des espèces ont subi un simple glissement, mais il a fallu plusieurs siècles pour qu'elles atteignent un nouvel équilibre. Avec les autres scénarios, certaines espèces ont disparu de la zone d'étude (p. ex. Pinus cembra dans les Alpes) ou ont vu leur population diminuer parce qu'il n'y avait plus assez de terrains disponibles dans lesquels elles puissent migrer. Le résultat le plus frappant a été le temps de latence dans la réponse de la plupart des espèces, indépendamment du scénario de changement climatique utilisé ou du type de limite des arbres. Finalement, un modèle statistique de l'effet de l'abroutissement par les rennes (Rangifer tarandus) sur la croissance de Pinus sylvestris a été développé, comme première étape en vue de l'implémentation des impacts humains sur la limite boréale des arbres. L'effet attendu était indirect, puisque les rennes réduisent la couverture de lichen sur le sol, dont on attend un effet protecteur contre les rigueurs climatiques. Le modèle a mis en évidence un effet modeste mais significatif, mais étant donné que le lien avec les variables climatiques sous jacentes était peu clair et que le modèle n'était pas appliqué dans l'espace, il n'était pas utilisable tel quel. Le développement du modèle TreeMig-LAb a permis : a) d'établir une méthode pour déduire les paramètres spécifiques de l'équation de croissance ä partir de données dendrochronologiques, b) de mettre en évidence l'importance de la régénération dans la position de la limite des arbres et la distribution des espèces et c) d'améliorer l'intégration des sciences sociales dans les modèles de paysage. L'application du modèle aux limites alpines et nord-européennes des arbres sous différents scénarios de changement climatique a montré qu'avec la plupart des niveaux d'augmentation de température prévus, la limite des arbres subirait des perturbations majeures, avec des glissements d'aires de répartition et l'extinction potentielle de certaines espèces. Cependant, ces réponses ont montré des temps de latence importants, si bien que ces effets ne seraient pas visibles avant des décennies et pourraient mettre plusieurs siècles à se stabiliser.

Structural sustainability of cambisol under different land use system

Incongruous management techniques have been associated with some significant loss of agricultural land to degradation in many parts of the world. Land degradation results in the alteration of physical, chemical and biological properties of the soil, thereby posing a serious threat to sustainable agricultural development. In this study, our objective is to evaluate the changes in a Cambisol structure under six land use systems using the load bearing capacity model. Sampling was conducted in Amazonas Region, Brazil, in the following land use: a) young secondary forest; b) old secondary forest; c) forest; d) pasture; e) cropping, and f) agroforestry. To obtain the load bearing capacity models the undisturbed soil samples were collected in those land use systems and subjected to the uniaxial compression test. These models were used to evaluate which land use system preserved or degraded the Cambisol structure. The results of the bulk density and total porosity of the soil samples were not adequate to quantify structural degradation in Cambisol. Using the forest topsoil level (0-0.03 m) as a reference, it was observed that pasture land use system was most severe in the degradation of the soil structure while the structure were most preserved under old secondary forest, cropping system and forest. At the subsoil level (0.10-0.13 m depth), the soil structure was most degraded in the cropping land use system while it was most preserved in young secondary forest and pasture. At the 0.20-0.23 m depth, soil structure degradation was most severe in the old secondary forest system and well preserved in young secondary forest, cropping and agroforestry.

Plant functional and phylogenetic turnover correlate with climate and land use in the Western Swiss Alps

Understanding the relative importance of historical and environmental processes in the structure and composition of communities is one of the longest quests in ecological research. Increasingly, researchers are relying on the functional and phylogenetic β-diversity of natural communities to provide concise explanations on the mechanistic basis of community assembly and the drivers of trait variation among species. The present study investigated how plant functional and phylogenetic β-diversity change along key environmental and spatial gradients in the Western Swiss Alps. Methods Using the quadratic diversity measure based on six functional traits: specific leaf area (SLA), leaf dry matter content (LDMC), plant height (H), leaf carbon content (C), leaf nitrogen content (N), and leaf carbon to nitrogen content (C/N) alongside a species-resolved phylogenetic tree, we relate variations in climate, spatial geographic, land use and soil gradients to plant functional and phylogenetic turnover in mountain communities of the Western Swiss Alps. Important findings Our study highlights two main points. First, climate and land use factors play an important role in mountain plant community turnover. Second, the overlap between plant functional and phylogenetic turnover along these gradients correlates with the low phylogenetic signal in traits, suggesting that in mountain landscapes, trait lability is likely an important factor in driving plant community assembly. Overall, we demonstrate the importance of climate and land use factors in plant functional and phylogenetic community turnover, and provide valuable complementary insights into understanding patterns of β-diversity along several ecological gradients.

Quality of surface water related to land use: a case study in a catchment with small farms and intensive vegetable crop production in southern Brazil

Water degradation is strongly related to agricultural activity. The aim of this study was to evaluate the influence of land use and some environmental components on surface water quality in the Campestre catchment, located in Colombo, state of Parana, Brazil. Physical and chemical attributes were analyzed (total nitrogen, ammonium, nitrate, total phosphorus, electrical conductivity, pH, temperature, turbidity, total solids, biological oxygen demand, chemical oxygen demand and dissolved oxygen). Monthly samples of the river water were taken over one year at eight monitoring sites, distributed over three sub-basins. Overall, water quality was worse in the sub-basin with a higher percentage of agriculture, and was also affected by a lower percentage of native forest and permanent preservation area, and a larger drainage area. Water quality was also negatively affected by the presence of agriculture in the riparian zone. In the summer season, probably due to higher rainfall and intensive soil use, a higher concentration of total nitrogen and particulate nitrogen was observed, as well as higher electrical conductivity, pH and turbidity. All attributes, except for total phosphorus, were in compliance with Brazilian Conama Resolution Nº 357/2005 for freshwater class 1. However, it should be noted that these results referred to the base flow and did not represent a discharge condition since most of the water samples were not collected at or near the rainfall event.

The effects of land use and soil management on the physical properties of an Oxisol in Southeast Brazil

Soils of the tropics are prone to a decrease in quality after conversion from native forest (FO) to a conventional tillage system (CT). However, the adoption of no-tillage (NT) and complex crop rotations may improve soil structural quality. Thus, the aim of this study was to evaluate the physical properties of an Oxisol under FO, CT, and three summer crop sequences in NT: continuous corn (NTcc), continuous soybean (NTcs), and a soybean/corn rotation (NTscr). Both NT and CT decreased soil organic carbon (SOC) content, SOC stock, water stable aggregates (WSA), geometric mean diameter (GMD), soil total porosity (TP), macroporosity (MA), and the least limiting water range (LLWR). However they increased soil bulk density (BD) and tensile strength (TS) of the aggregates when compared to soil under FO. Soil under NT had higher WSA, GMD, BD, TS and microporosty, but lower TP and MA than soil under CT. Soil under FO did not attain critical values for the LLWR, but the lower limit of the LLWR in soils under CT and NT was resistance to penetration (RP) for all values of BD, while the upper limit of field capacity was air-filled porosity for BD values greater than 1.46 (CT), 1.40 (NTscr), 1.42 (NTcc), and 1.41 (NTcs) kg dm-3. Soil under NTcc and NTcs decreased RP even with the increase in BD because of the formation of biopores. Furthermore, higher critical BD was verified under NTcc (1.62 kg dm-3) and NTcs (1.57 kg dm-3) compared to NTscr and CT (1.53 kg dm-3).

Chemical and mineralogical changes in a Brazilian Rhodic Paleudult under different land use and managements

Changes in land use and management can affect the dynamic equilibrium of soil systems and induce chemical and mineralogical alterations. This study was based on two long-term experiments (10 and 27 years) to evaluate soil used for no-tillage maize cultivation, with and without poultry litter application (NTPL and NTM), and with grazed native pasture fertilized with cattle droppings (GrP), on the chemical and mineralogical characteristics of a Rhodic Paleudult in Southern Brazil, in comparison with the same soil under native grassland (NGr). In the four treatments, soil was sampled from the 0.0-2.5 and 2.5-5.0 cm layers. In the air-dried fine soil (ADFS) fraction (∅ < 2 mm), chemical characteristics of solid and liquid phases and the specific surface area (SSA) were evaluated. The clay fraction (∅ < 0.002 mm) in the 0.0-2.5 cm layer was analyzed by X-ray diffraction (XRD) after treatments for identification and characterization of 2:1 clay minerals. Animal waste application increased the total organic C concentration (COT) and specific surface area (SSA) in the 0.0-2.5 cm layer. In comparison to NGr, poultry litter application (NTPL) increased the concentrations of Ca and CECpH7, while cattle droppings (GrP) increased the P and K concentrations. In the soil solution, the concentration of dissolved organic C was positively related with COT levels. With regard to NGr, the soil use with crops (NTM and NTPL) had practically no effect on the chemical elements in solution. On the other hand, the concentrations of most chemical elements in solution were higher in GrP, especially of Fe, Al and Si. The Fe and Al concentrations in the soil iron oxides were lower, indicating reductive/complexive dissolution of crystalline forms. The X-ray diffraction (XRD) patterns of clay in the GrP environment showed a decrease in intensity and reflection area of the 2:1 clay minerals. This fact, along with the intensified Al and Si activity in soil solution indicate dissolution of clay minerals in soil under cattle-grazed pasture fertilized with animal droppings.

Report on a special investigation of the Amana Colonies Land Use District for the period May 21, 2007 through March 31, 2011

Report on a special investigation of the Amana Colonies Land Use District for the period May 21, 2007 through March 31, 2011

Climatic and land use changes in the NW of Iberian Peninsula recorded in a 1,500-year record from Lake Sanabria

L'estudi de diversos descriptors paleoambientals com ara el pol·len, les diatomees i la sedimentologia, realitzat en sediments procedents del llac de Sanabria (NO de la península Ibèrica), ha aportat informació sobre les oscil·lacions climàtiques atribuïdes als períodes càlids tardoromà i medieval, així com a la petita edat del gel. Entre els anys 440 i 950 dC, el clima es caracteritzà per temperatures suaus i un règim de precipitacions mediterrani, malgrat l¿existència de pulsacions més fredes vers els anys 530 i 700 dC. Les evidències pol·líniques dels usos del sòl indiquen l'extensió d¿activitats ramaderes i agrícoles. Aquesta fase correspon al final del període càlid romà i al període càlid medieval. El canvi de condicions climàtiques es produeix entre els anys 950 i 1100 dC, moment en què els valors mínims de matèria orgànica, pol·len arbori, concentració de diatomees, nitrogen total (TN) i mida del gra indiquen temperatures més baixes i un règim de precipitacions més regular. Aquest període correspon a

U.S. landowner behavior, land use and land cover changes, and climate change mitigation

Abstract

Land use response to agricultural policy and market movements on Finnish dairy-farms

Selostus: Tuki- ja hintamuutosten vaikutus maitotilojen pellon käyttöön

Climate Change or Land Use Dynamics: Do We Know What Climate Change Indicators Indicate?

Different components of global change can have interacting effects on biodiversity and this may influence our ability to detect the specific consequences of climate change through biodiversity indicators. Here, we analyze whether climate change indicators can be affected by land use dynamics that are not directly determined by climate change. To this aim, we analyzed three community-level indicators of climate change impacts that are based on the optimal thermal environment and averagelatitude of the distribution of bird species present at local communities. We used multiple regression models to relate the variation in climate change indicators to: i) environmental temperature; and ii) three landscape gradients reflecting important current land use change processes (land abandonment, fire impacts and urbanization), all of them having forest areas at their positive extremes. We found that, with few exceptions, landscape gradients determined the figures of climate change indicators as strongly as temperature. Bird communities in forest habitats had colder-dwelling bird species with more northerndistributions than farmland, burnt or urban areas. Our results show that land use changes can reverse, hide or exacerbate our perception of climate change impacts when measured through community-level climate change indicators. We stress the need of an explicit incorporation of the interactions between climate change and land use dynamics to understand what are current climate change indicators indicating and be able to isolate real climate change impacts

The link between land-use management and fluvial flood risk : a chaotic conception?

There is much policy interest in the possible linkages that might exist between land use and downstream fluvial flood risk. On the one hand, this position is sustained by observations from plot- and field-scale studies that suggest land management does affect runoff. On the other, upscaling these effects to show that land-management activities impact upon flood risk at larger catchment scales has proved to be elusive. This review considers the reasons for why this upscaling is problematic. We argue that, rather than it reflecting methodological challenges associated with the difficulties of modelling hydrological processes over very large areas and during extreme runoff events, it reflects the fact that any linkage between land management and flood risk cannot be generalized and taken out of its specific spatial (catchment) and temporal (flood event) context. We use Sayer's (1992) notion of a `chaotic conception' to describe the belief that there is a simple and general association between land management and downstream flood risk rather than the impacts of land management being spatially and temporally contingent in relation to the particular geographical location, time period and scale being considered. Our argument has important practical consequences because it implies that land-management activities to reduce downstream flood risk will be different to traditional flood-reduction interventions such as levees. The purpose of demonstration projects then needs careful consideration such that conclusions made for one project are not transferred uncritically to other scales of analysis or geographical locations.

Development of a Transportation and Land Use Public Policy Education Program for Iowa, 2000

This literature review serves as a foundation for a transportation and land use public policy education program for Iowa. The objective of the review is to summarize relevant research findings, to review the state of practice and policies of other state and local governments, and to explore land use trends both within the state of Iowa and the nation as a whole. Much of what we learned has been incorporated into the course materials. Because we expect to identify more useful sources throughout the project, this literature review should be considered a work in progress.

Land use/cover classification in the Brazilian Amazon using satellite images

Land use/cover classification is one of the most important applications in remote sensing. However, mapping accurate land use/cover spatial distribution is a challenge, particularly in moist tropical regions, due to the complex biophysical environment and limitations of remote sensing data per se. This paper reviews experiments related to land use/cover classification in the Brazilian Amazon for a decade. Through comprehensive analysis of the classification results, it is concluded that spatial information inherent in remote sensing data plays an essential role in improving land use/cover classification. Incorporation of suitable textural images into multispectral bands and use of segmentation‑based method are valuable ways to improve land use/cover classification, especially for high spatial resolution images. Data fusion of multi‑resolution images within optical sensor data is vital for visual interpretation, but may not improve classification performance. In contrast, integration of optical and radar data did improve classification performance when the proper data fusion method was used. Among the classification algorithms available, the maximum likelihood classifier is still an important method for providing reasonably good accuracy, but nonparametric algorithms, such as classification tree analysis, have the potential to provide better results. However, they often require more time to achieve parametric optimization. Proper use of hierarchical‑based methods is fundamental for developing accurate land use/cover classification, mainly from historical remotely sensed data.