World distribution of land cover changes, model in NetCDF format

The role of Pre- and Protohistoric anthropogenic land cover changes needs to be quantified i) to establish a baseline for comparison with current human impact on the environment and ii) to separate it from naturally occurring changes in our environment. Results are presented from the simple, adaptation-driven, spatially explicit Global Land Use and technological Evolution Simulator (GLUES) for pre-Bronze age demographic, technological and economic change. Using scaling parameters from the History Database of the Global Environment as well as GLUES-simulated population density and subsistence style, the land requirement for growing crops is estimated. The intrusion of cropland into potentially forested areas is translated into carbon loss due to deforestation with the dynamic global vegetation model VECODE. The land demand in important Prehistoric growth areas - converted from mostly forested areas - led to large-scale regional (country size) deforestation of up to 11% of the potential forest. In total, 29 Gt carbon were lost from global forests between 10 000 BC and 2000 BC and were replaced by crops; this value is consistent with other estimates of Prehistoric deforestation. The generation of realistic (agri-)cultural development trajectories at a regional resolution is a major strength of GLUES. Most of the pre-Bronze age deforestation is simulated in a broad farming belt from Central Europe via India to China. Regional carbon loss is, e.g., 5 Gt in Europe and the Mediterranean, 6 Gt on the Indian subcontinent, 18 Gt in East and Southeast Asia, or 2.3 Gt in subsaharan Africa.

Time-series of seagrass and land cover maps from 1972 to 2010, in South East Queensland, Australia, with links to GeoTIFFs

Long term global archives of high-moderate spatial resolution, multi-spectral satellite imagery are now readily accessible, but are not being fully utilised by management agencies due to the lack of appropriate methods to consistently produce accurate and timely management ready information. This work developed an object-based remote sensing approach to map land cover and seagrass distribution in an Australian coastal environment for a 38 year Landsat image time-series archive (1972-2010). Landsat Multi-Spectral Scanner (MSS), Thematic Mapper (TM) and Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+) imagery were used without in situ field data input (but still using field knowledge) to produce land and seagrass cover maps every year data were available, resulting in over 60 map products over the 38 year archive. Land cover was mapped annually using vegetation, bare ground, urban and agricultural classes. Seagrass distribution was also mapped annually, and in some years monthly, via horizontal projected foliage cover classes, sand and deep water. Land cover products were validated using aerial photography and seagrass maps were validated with field survey data, producing several measures of accuracy. An average overall accuracy of 65% and 80% was reported for seagrass and land cover products respectively, which is consistent with other studies in the area. This study is the first to show moderate spatial resolution, long term annual changes in land cover and seagrass in an Australian environment, created without the use of in situ data; and only one of a few similar studies globally. The land cover products identify several long term trends; such as significant increases in South East Queensland's urban density and extent, vegetation clearing in rural and rural-residential areas, and inter-annual variation in dry vegetation types in western South East Queensland. The seagrass cover products show that there has been a minimal overall change in seagrass extent, but that seagrass cover level distribution is extremely dynamic; evidenced by large scale migrations of higher seagrass cover levels and several sudden and significant changes in cover level. These mapping products will allow management agencies to build a baseline assessment of their resources, understand past changes and help inform implementation and planning of management policy to address potential future changes.

Pan-European land cover/use map for 2009

GlobCorine demonstrated an automatic service that can generate in a consistent way land cover / land use maps and land change indicators, based on a CLC-compatible legend. CLC is derived from a visual identification and classification of landscape objects using high resolution images. This methodology provides high thematic accuracy but limits the update rate since it is time-consuming. Therefore, the project evaluated the use of MERIS FR time series, processed automatically to provide a more frequent update of CLC-compatible maps. GlobCorine built upon the experience and resources available through the GlobCover project, to tune the classification chain and adapt it to the EEA needs, covering the pan-European area (including the Mediterranean basin and the European Russia), although the system could be potentially extendable globally. The project delivered two CLC-compatible pan-European land cover maps in less than two years, demonstrating efficient and quick production. The first map is based on Envisat MERIS fine resolution (300m) mode data acquired between end 2004 and mid 2006, while the second used full-year 2009 data. GlobCorine is an initiative of ESA with the partnership of EEA and is implemented by Universite' catholique de Louvain - UCL.

Maps (pdf) and raster images (tif) of predicted rural land cover suitability under current (2010) conditions and future climate scenarios

This study projects land cover probabilities under climate change for corn (maize), soybeans, spring and winter wheat, winter wheat-soybean double cropping, cotton, grassland and forest across 16 central U.S. states at a high spatial resolution, while also taking into account the influence of soil characteristics and topography. The scenarios span three oceanic-atmospheric global circulation models, three Representative Concentration Pathways, and three time periods (2040, 2070, 2100). As climate change intensifies, the suitable area for all six crops display large northward shifts. Total suitable area for spring wheat, followed by corn and soybeans, diminish. Suitable area for winter wheat and for winter wheat-soybean double-cropping expand northward, while cotton suitability migrates to new, more northerly, locations. Suitability for forest intensifies in the south while yielding to crops in the north; grassland intensifies in the western Great Plains as crop suitability diminishes. To maintain current broad geographic patterns of land use, large changes in the thermal response of crops such as corn would be required. A transition from corn-soybean to winter wheat-soybean doubling cropping is an alternative adaptation.

Hydro-Meteorology and Water Budget of the Mara River Basin Under Land Use Change Scenarios

Mara is a transboundary river located in Kenya and Tanzania and considered to be an important life line to the inhabitants of the Mara-Serengeti ecosystem. It is also a source of water for domestic water supply, irrigation, livestock and wildlife. The alarming increase of water demand as well as the decline in the river flow in recent years has been a major challenge for water resource managers and stakeholders. This has necessitated the knowledge of the available water resources in the basin at different times of the year. Historical rainfall, minimum and maximum stream flows were analyzed. Inter and intra-annual variability of trends in streamflow are discussed. Landsat imagery was utilized in order to analyze the land use land cover in the upper Mara River basin. The semi-distributed hydrological model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to model the basin water balance and understand the hydrologic effect of the recent land use changes from forest-to-agriculture. The results of this study provided the potential hydrological impacts of three land use change scenarios in the upper Mara River basin. It also adds to the existing literature and knowledge base with a view of promoting better land use management practices in the basin.

Forests as landscapes of social inequality: tropical forest cover and land distribution among shifting cultivators

Can social inequality be seen imprinted in a forest landscape? We studied the relationship between land holding, land use, and inequality in a peasant community in the Peruvian Amazon where farmers practice swidden-fallow cultivation. Longitudinal data on land holding, land use, and land cover were gathered through field-level surveys (n = 316) and household interviews (n = 51) in 1994/1995 and 2007. Forest cover change between 1965 and 2007 was documented through interpretation of air photos and satellite imagery. We introduce the concept of “land use inequality” to capture differences across households in the distribution of forest fallowing and orchard raising as key land uses that affect household welfare and the sustainability of swidden-fallow agriculture. We find that land holding, land use, and forest cover distribution are correlated and that the forest today reflects social inequality a decade prior. Although initially land-poor households may catch up in terms of land holdings, their use and land cover remain impoverished. Differential land use investment through time links social inequality and forest cover. Implications are discussed for the study of forests as landscapes of inequality, the relationship between social inequality and forest composition, and the forest-poverty nexus.

Estimates of global sources and sinks of carbon from land cover and land use changes

The distribution of sources and sinks of carbon over the land surface is dominated by changes in land use such as deforestation, reforestation, and agricultural management. Despite, the importance of land-use change in dominating long-term net terrestrial fluxes of carbon, estimates of the annual flux are uncertain relative to other terms in the global carbon budget. The interaction of the nitrogen cycle via atmospheric N inputs and N limitation with the carbon cycle contributes to the uncertain effect of land use change on terrestrial carbon uptake. This study uses two different land use datasets to force the geographically explicit terrestrial carbon-nitrogen coupled component of the Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM) to examine the response of terrestrial carbon stocks to historical LCLUC (cropland, pastureland and wood harvest) while accounting for changes in N deposition, atmospheric CO2 and climate. One of the land use datasets is based on satellite data (SAGE) while the other uses population density maps (HYDE), which allows this study to investigate how global LCLUC data construction can affect model estimated emissions. The timeline chosen for this study starts before the Industrial Revolution in 1765 to the year 2000 because of the influence of rising population and economic development on regional LCLUC. Additionally, this study evaluates the impact that resulting secondary forests may have on terrestrial carbon uptake. The ISAM model simulations indicate that uncertainties in net terrestrial carbon fluxes during the 1990s are largely due to uncertainties in regional LCLUC data. Also results show that secondary forests increase the terrestrial carbon sink but secondary tropical forests carbon uptake are constrained due to nutrient limitation.

High spatial resolution land use and land cover mapping of the Brazilian Legal Amazon in 2008 using Landsat-5/TM and MODIS data.

Understanding spatial patterns of land use and land cover is essential for studies addressing biodiversity, climate change and environmental modeling as well as for the design and monitoring of land use policies. The aim of this study was to create a detailed map of land use land cover of the deforested areas of the Brazilian Legal Amazon up to 2008. Deforestation data from and uses were mapped with Landsat-5/TM images analysed with techniques, such as linear spectral mixture model, threshold slicing and visual interpretation, aided by temporal information extracted from NDVI MODIS time series. The result is a high spatial resolution of land use and land cover map of the entire Brazilian Legal Amazon for the year 2008 and corresponding calculation of area occupied by different land use classes. The results showed that the four classes of Pasture covered 62% of the deforested areas of the Brazilian Legal Amazon, followed by Secondary Vegetation with 21%. The area occupied by Annual Agriculture covered less than 5% of deforested areas; the remaining areas were distributed among six other land use classes. The maps generated from this project ? called TerraClass - are available at INPE?s web site (http://www.inpe.br/cra/projetos_pesquisas/terraclass2008.php)

FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT UNDER HISTORICAL AND PREDICTED LAND USE CHANGE USING CONTINUOUS HYDROLOGIC MODELING

Current procedures for flood risk estimation assume flood distributions are stationary over time, meaning annual maximum flood (AMF) series are not affected by climatic variation, land use/land cover (LULC) change, or management practices. Thus, changes in LULC and climate are generally not accounted for in policy and design related to flood risk/control, and historical flood events are deemed representative of future flood risk. These assumptions need to be re-evaluated, however, as climate change and anthropogenic activities have been observed to have large impacts on flood risk in many areas. In particular, understanding the effects of LULC change is essential to the study and understanding of global environmental change and the consequent hydrologic responses. The research presented herein provides possible causation for observed nonstationarity in AMF series with respect to changes in LULC, as well as a means to assess the degree to which future LULC change will impact flood risk. Four watersheds in the Midwest, Northeastern, and Central United States were studied to determine flood risk associated with historical and future projected LULC change. Historical single framed aerial images dating back to the mid-1950s were used along with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remote sensing models (SPRING and ERDAS) to create historical land use maps. The Forecasting Scenarios of Future Land Use Change (FORE-SCE) model was applied to generate future LULC maps annually from 2006 to 2100 for the conterminous U.S. based on the four IPCC-SRES future emission scenario conditions. These land use maps were input into previously calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) models for two case study watersheds. In order to isolate effects of LULC change, the only variable parameter was the Runoff Curve Number associated with the land use layer. All simulations were run with daily climate data from 1978-1999, consistent with the 'base' model which employed the 1992 NLCD to represent 'current' conditions. Output daily maximum flows were converted to instantaneous AMF series and were subsequently modeled using a Log-Pearson Type 3 (LP3) distribution to evaluate flood risk. Analysis of the progression of LULC change over the historic period and associated SWAT outputs revealed that AMF magnitudes tend to increase over time in response to increasing degrees of urbanization. This is consistent with positive trends in the AMF series identified in previous studies, although there are difficulties identifying correlations between LULC change and identified change points due to large time gaps in the generated historical LULC maps, mainly caused by unavailability of sufficient quality historic aerial imagery. Similarly, increases in the mean and median AMF magnitude were observed in response to future LULC change projections, with the tails of the distributions remaining reasonably constant. FORE-SCE scenario A2 was found to have the most dramatic impact on AMF series, consistent with more extreme projections of population growth, demands for growing energy sources, agricultural land, and urban expansion, while AMF outputs based on scenario B2 showed little changes for the future as the focus is on environmental conservation and regional solutions to environmental issues.

Influence of land-use change on near-surface hydrological processes: Undisturbed forest to pasture

Soil compaction that follows the clearing of tropical forest for cattle pasture is associated with lower soil hydraulic conductivity and increased frequency and volume of overland flow. We investigated the frequency of perched water tables, overland flow and stormflow in an Amazon forest and in an adjacent 25-year-old pasture cleared from the same forest. We compared the results with the frequencies of these phenomena estimated from comparisons of rainfall intensity and soil hydraulic conductivity. The frequency of perched water tables based on rainfall intensity and soil hydraulic conductivity was expected to double in pasture compared with forest. This corresponded closely with an approximate doubling of the frequency of stormflow and overland flow in pasture. In contrast, the stormflow volume in pasture increased 17-fold. This disproportional increase of stormflow resulted from overland flow generation over large areas of pasture, while overland flow generation in the forest was spatially limited and was observed only very near the stream channel. In both catchments, stormflow was generated by saturation excess because of perched water tables and near-surface groundwater levels. Stormflow was occasionally generated in the forest by rapid return flow from macropores, while slow return flow from a continuous perched water table was more common in the pasture. These results suggest that deforestation for pasture alters fundamental mechanisms of stormflow generation and may increase runoff volumes over wide regions of Amazonia. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Implications of long-term land-use change for the hydrology and solute budgets of small catchments in Amazonia

The replacement of undisturbed tropical forest with cattle pasture has the potential to greatly modify the hydrology of small watersheds and the fluxes of solutes. We examined the fluxes of water, Cl(-), NO(3)(-)-N: SO(4)(2--)-S, NH(4)(+)-N, Na(+), K(+), Mg(2+) and Ca(2+) in different flow paths in similar to 1 ha catchments of undisturbed open tropical rainforest and a 20 year-old pasture established from forest in the southwestern Brazilian Amazon state of Rondonia. Storm flow discharge was 18% of incident rainfall in pasture, but only 1% in forest. Quickflow predominated over baseflow in both catchments and in both wet and dry seasons. In the pasture, groundwater and quickflow were important flow paths for the export of all solutes. In the forest, quickflow was important for NO(3)(-)-N export, but all other solutes were exported primarily by groundwater outflow. Both catchments were sinks for SO(4)(2-)-S and Ca(2+), and sources of Na(+). The pasture catchment also lost K(+) and Mg(2+) because of higher overland flow frequency and volume and to cattle excrement. These results show that forest clearing dramatically influences small watershed hydrology by increasing quickflow and water export to streams. They also indicate that tropical forest watersheds are highly conservative for most solutes but that pastures continue to lose important cations even decades after deforestation and pasture establishment. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of land cover on chemical characteristics of streams in the Cerrado region of Brazil

The Cerrado is the second largest Brazilian biome and contains the headwaters of three major hydrological basins in Brazil. In spite of the biological and ecological relevance of this biome, there is little information about how land use changes affect the chemistry of low-order streams in the Cerrado. To evaluate these effects streams that drain areas under natural, rural, and urban land cover were sampled near Brasilia, Brazil. Water samples were collected between September 2004 and December 2006. Chemical concentrations generally followed the pattern of Urban > Rural > Natural. Median conductivity of stream water of 21.6 (interquartile: 22.7) mu S/cm in urban streams was three and five-fold greater relative to rural and natural areas, respectively. In the wet season, despite of increasing discharge, concentration of many solutes were higher, particularly in rural and natural streams. Streams also presented higher total dissolved N (TDN) loads from natural to rural and urban although DIN:DON ratios did not differ significantly. In natural and urban streams TDN was 80 and 77% dissolved organic N, respectively. These results indicate that alterations in land cover from natural to rural and urban are changing stream water chemistry in the Cerrado with increasing solute concentrations, in addition to increased TDN output in areas under urban cover, with potential effects on ecosystem function.

Forest cover monitoring in the Bara district (Nepal) with remote sensing and geographic information systems

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies

Estimation of vegetation carbon stock in Portugal using land use/ land cover data

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies