Integration and segmentation in European investment services markets: assessing the implications for international real estate investment

This paper analyses developments in the growth and configuration of the institutional savings markets within the European Union. The paper discusses the changing socio-economic context in which investment services within the EU are being delivered. The is followed by an examination of drivers of market integration such as the growth and consolidation of the fund management industry, the demographic and fiscal pressures for reform of pensions markets and the process and effects of the deregulation of investment services markets. There is a review of outstanding sources of market segmentation. The projections for future growth in pensions are outlined and implications for real estate investment assessed. It is concluded that, although numerous imponderables render reliable quantitative projections problematic, growth and restructuring of the institutional savings market is likely to increase cross-border capital flows to real estate markets.

The sky is the limit? The determinants and constraints of European airports' commercial revenues

This study investigates the determinants of commercial and retail airport revenues as well as revenues from real estate operations. Cross-sectional OLS, 2SLS and robust regression models of European airports identify a number of significant drivers of airport revenues. Aviation revenues per passenger are mainly determined by the national income per capita in which the airport is located, the percentage of leisure travelers and the size of the airport proxied by total aviation revenues. Main drivers of commercial revenues per passenger include the total number of passengers passing through the airport, the ratio of commercial to total revenues, the national income, the share of domestic and leisure travelers and the total number of flights. These results are in line with previous findings of a negative influence of business travelers on commercial revenues per passenger. We also find that a high amount of retail space per passenger is generally associated with lower commercial revenues per square meter confirming decreasing marginal revenue effects. Real estate revenues per passenger are positively associated with national income per capita at airport location, share of intra-EU passengers and percent delayed flights. Overall, aviation and non-aviation revenues appear to be strongly interlinked, underlining the potential for a comprehensive airport management strategy above and beyond mere cost minimization of the aviation sector.

Analysis of frequency and intensity of European winter storm events from a multi-model perspective, at synoptic and regional scales

This study focuses on the analysis of winter (October-November-December-January-February-March; ONDJFM) storm events and their changes due to increased anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations over Europe. In order to assess uncertainties that are due to model formulation, 4 regional climate models (RCMs) with 5 high resolution experiments, and 4 global general circulation models (GCMs) are considered. Firstly, cyclone systems as synoptic scale processes in winter are investigated, as they are a principal cause of the occurrence of extreme, damage-causing wind speeds. This is achieved by use of an objective cyclone identification and tracking algorithm applied to GCMs. Secondly, changes in extreme near-surface wind speeds are analysed. Based on percentile thresholds, the studied extreme wind speed indices allow a consistent analysis over Europe that takes systematic deviations of the models into account. Relative changes in both intensity and frequency of extreme winds and their related uncertainties are assessed and related to changing patterns of extreme cyclones. A common feature of all investigated GCMs is a reduced track density over central Europe under climate change conditions, if all systems are considered. If only extreme (i.e. the strongest 5%) cyclones are taken into account, an increasing cyclone activity for western parts of central Europe is apparent; however, the climate change signal reveals a reduced spatial coherency when compared to all systems, which exposes partially contrary results. With respect to extreme wind speeds, significant positive changes in intensity and frequency are obtained over at least 3 and 20% of the European domain under study (35–72°N and 15°W–43°E), respectively. Location and extension of the affected areas (up to 60 and 50% of the domain for intensity and frequency, respectively), as well as levels of changes (up to +15 and +200% for intensity and frequency, respectively) are shown to be highly dependent on the driving GCM, whereas differences between RCMs when driven by the same GCM are relatively small.

Variability of the North Atlantic summer storm track: mechanisms and impacts on European climate

The summertime variability of the extratropical storm track over the Atlantic sector and its links to European climate have been analysed for the period 1948–2011 using observations and reanalyses. The main results are as follows. (1) The dominant mode of the summer storm track density variability is characterized by a meridional shift of the storm track between two distinct paths and is related to a bimodal distribution in the climatology for this region. It is also closely related to the Summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO). (2) A southward shift is associated with a downstream extension of the storm track and a decrease in blocking frequency over the UK and northwestern Europe. (3) The southward shift is associated with enhanced precipitation over the UK and northwestern Europe and decreased precipitation over southern Europe (contrary to the behaviour in winter). (4) There are strong ocean–atmosphere interactions related to the dominant mode of storm track variability. The atmosphere forces the ocean through anomalous surface fluxes and Ekman currents, but there is also some evidence consistent with an ocean influence on the atmosphere, and that coupled ocean–atmosphere feedbacks might play a role. The ocean influence on the atmosphere may be particularly important on decadal timescales, related to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO).

Lack of association between PCK1 polymorphisms and obesity, physical activity, and fitness in European Youth Heart Study (EYHS)

Phosphoenolpyruvate carboxykinase-1 (PCK1) is the rate-limiting enzyme in the hepatic gluconeogenic pathway. Studies have shown that overexpression of Pck1 in mice results in obesity-related traits and higher levels of physical activity (PA). Therefore, our aims were to investigate whether common genetic variation in the PCK1 gene influences obesity-related traits, PA, and fitness, and to examine whether PA and fitness attenuate the influence of the PCK1 polymorphisms on obesity in children. Analyses were undertaken on data from Danish and Estonian children (958 boys and 1,104 girls) from the European Youth Heart Study (EYHS), a school-based, cross-sectional study of children (mean ± s.d. age: 9.6 ± 0.4 years) and adolescents (15.5 ± 0.5 years). We genotyped eight polymorphisms that captured the common genetic variations in the PCK1 gene. The association between the PCK1 polymorphisms and BMI, waist circumference (WC), sum of four skinfolds, PA, and fitness was tested using an additive model adjusted for age, age-group, gender, maturity, and country. Interactions were tested by including interaction terms in the model. None of the polymorphisms were significantly associated with BMI, WC, sum of four skinfolds, PA, and fitness, and also with the risk of being overweight or obese (P > 0.05). The interactions between the polymorphisms and age-group, gender, PA, and fitness were not statistically significant. This is the first study to comprehensively examine the association of PCK1 polymorphisms with obesity, PA, and fitness. Despite strong evidence from animal studies, our study in the EYHS cohort failed to identify an association of PCK1 polymorphisms with obesity, PA, and fitness.

English Contract Law and the Great War: the development of a doctrine of frustration

This article examines changes that occurred in English contract law as a result of the demands made upon Great Britain by the Great War. The focus is on the development of the doctrine of frustration in English law. In particular, it is argued that the development of the doctrine of frustration was fashioned from internal legal forces in the form of both existing case law and emergency legislation in response to the demands placed upon the nation by a global war. The way in which the doctrine of frustration developed during the Great War arose as a direct result of the way in which Britain chose to meet the logistical demands created by the way it fought the Great War.

House price dynamics and bank herding: European empirical evidence

This paper investigates the behavior of residential property and examines the linkages between house price dynamics and bank herding behavior. The analysis presents evidence that irrational behaviour may have played a significant role in several countries, including; United Kingdom, Spain, Denmark, Sweden and Ireland. In addition, we also provide evidence indicative of herding behaviour in the European residential mortgage loan market. Granger Causality tests indicate that non-fundamentally justified prices dynamics contributed to herding by lenders and that this behaviour was a response by the banks as a group to common information on residential property assets. In contrast, in Germany, Portugal and Austria, residential property prices were largely explained by fundamentals. Furthermore, these countries show no evidence of either irrational price bubbles or herd behaviour in the mortgage market. Granger Causality tests indicate that both variables are independent.

Rapid evolution of the cerebellum in humans and other great apes

Humans’ unique cognitive abilities are usually attributed to a greatly expanded neocortex, which has been described as “the crowning achievement of evolution and the biological substrate of human mental prowess” [1]. The human cerebellum, however, contains four times more neurons than the neocortex [2] and is attracting increasing attention for its wide range of cognitive functions. Using a method for detecting evolutionary rate changes along the branches of phylogenetic trees, we show that the cerebellum underwent rapid size increase throughout the evolution of apes, including humans, expanding significantly faster than predicted by the change in neocortex size. As a result, humans and other apes deviated significantly from the general evolutionary trend for neocortex and cerebellum to change in tandem, having significantly larger cerebella relative to neocortex size than other anthropoid primates. These results suggest that cerebellar specialization was a far more important component of human brain evolution than hitherto recognized and that technical intelligence was likely to have been at least as important as social intelligence in human cognitive evolution. Given the role of the cerebellum in sensory-motor control and in learning complex action sequences, cerebellar specialization is likely to have underpinned the evolution of humans’ advanced technological capacities, which in turn may have been a preadaptation for language.

A gravity model for trade between Vietnam and twenty-three European countries

This thesis examines the bilateral trade between Vietnam and twenty three European countries based on a gravity model and panel data for years 1993 to 2004. Estimates indicate that economic size, market size and real exchange rate of Vietnam and twenty three European countries play major role in bilateral trade between Vietnam and these countries. Distance and history, however, do not seem to drive the bilateral trade. The results of gravity model are also applied to calculate the trade potential between Vietnam and twenty three European countries. It shows that Vietnam’s trade with twenty three European countries has considerable room for growth.

Credit ratings and government bonds evidence before, during and after the european debt crisis

Neste projeto, investigamos se as agências de rating e as taxas de juro de longo prazo da dívida soberana tiveram uma influência recíproca antes, durante e após a crise da dívida soberana Europeia. Esta análise é realizada, estimando a relação existente entre os ratings da dívida soberana ou taxas de juro e factores macroeconomicos e estruturais, através de uma diferente aplicação de metodologias utilizadas para este efeito. Os resultados obtidos demonstram que, no período da crise soberana, os ratings e as taxas de juros tiveram um mútuo impacto, sugerindo que as descidas dos ratings podem ter conduzido a profecias auto-realizáveis, levando países relativamente estáveis a um eventual incumprimento

Structural variations among monocot emergent and amphibious species from lakes of the semi-arid region of Bahia, Brazil

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Thermal structure, heat content and stability of two lakes in The National Park of Rio Doce Valley (Minas Gerais, Brazil)

The thermal structure, heat content and stability were studied in Lakes Dom Helvécio and Carioca during an annual cycle. It was found that the maximum heat content, stability and work of the wind in Lake Dom Helvécio correspond to two, four and four times, respectively, the values for the Lake Carioca. These difference can be attributed to morphometric differences in the lakes. A long-term record of heat content and stability for lake Carioca is also presented. Diel variations were studied in summer and winter. The tropicality of the lakes is discussed and compared with other lacustrine systems. © 1989 Kluwer Academic Publishers.