A method for predicting rain-induced instability of an individual slope

Awareness to avoid losses and casualties due to rain-induced landslide is increasing in regions that routinely experience heavy rainfall. Improvements in early warning systems against rain-induced landslide such as prediction modelling using rainfall records, is urgently needed in vulnerable regions. The existing warning systems have been applied using stability chart development and real-time displacement measurement on slope surfaces. However, there are still some drawbacks such as: ignorance of rain-induced instability mechanism, mislead prediction due to the probabilistic prediction and short time for evacuation. In this research, a real-time predictive method was proposed to alleviate the drawbacks mentioned above. A case-study soil slope in Indonesia that failed in 2010 during rainfall was used to verify the proposed predictive method. Using the results from the field and laboratory characterizations, numerical analyses can be applied to develop a model of unsaturated residual soils slope with deep cracks and subject to rainwater infiltration. Real-time rainfall measurement in the slope and the prediction of future rainfall are needed. By coupling transient seepage and stability analysis, the variation of safety factor of the slope with time were provided as a basis to develop method for the real-time prediction of the rain-induced instability of slopes. This study shows the proposed prediction method has the potential to be used in an early warning system against landslide hazard, since the FOS value and the timing of the end-result of the prediction can be provided before the actual failure of the case study slope.

Real - time prediction of rainfall induced instability of residual soil slopes associated with deep cracks

The early warning based on real-time prediction of rain-induced instability of natural residual slopes helps to minimise human casualties due to such slope failures. Slope instability prediction is complicated, as it is influenced by many factors, including soil properties, soil behaviour, slope geometry, and the location and size of deep cracks in the slope. These deep cracks can facilitate rainwater infiltration into the deep soil layers and reduce the unsaturated shear strength of residual soil. Subsequently, it can form a slip surface, triggering a landslide even in partially saturated soil slopes. Although past research has shown the effects of surface-cracks on soil stability, research examining the influence of deep-cracks on soil stability is very limited. This study aimed to develop methodologies for predicting the real-time rain-induced instability of natural residual soil slopes with deep cracks. The results can be used to warn against potential rain-induced slope failures. The literature review conducted on rain induced slope instability of unsaturated residual soil associated with soil crack, reveals that only limited studies have been done in the following areas related to this topic: - Methods for detecting deep cracks in residual soil slopes. - Practical application of unsaturated soil theory in slope stability analysis. - Mechanistic methods for real-time prediction of rain induced residual soil slope instability in critical slopes with deep cracks. Two natural residual soil slopes at Jombok Village, Ngantang City, Indonesia, which are located near a residential area, were investigated to obtain the parameters required for the stability analysis of the slope. A survey first identified all related field geometrical information including slope, roads, rivers, buildings, and boundaries of the slope. Second, the electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) method was used on the slope to identify the location and geometrical characteristics of deep cracks. The two ERT array models employed in this research are: Dipole-dipole and Azimuthal. Next, bore-hole tests were conducted at different locations in the slope to identify soil layers and to collect undisturbed soil samples for laboratory measurement of the soil parameters required for the stability analysis. At the same bore hole locations, Standard Penetration Test (SPT) was undertaken. Undisturbed soil samples taken from the bore-holes were tested in a laboratory to determine the variation of the following soil properties with the depth: - Classification and physical properties such as grain size distribution, atterberg limits, water content, dry density and specific gravity. - Saturated and unsaturated shear strength properties using direct shear apparatus. - Soil water characteristic curves (SWCC) using filter paper method. - Saturated hydraulic conductivity. The following three methods were used to detect and simulate the location and orientation of cracks in the investigated slope: (1) The electrical resistivity distribution of sub-soil obtained from ERT. (2) The profile of classification and physical properties of the soil, based on laboratory testing of soil samples collected from bore-holes and visual observations of the cracks on the slope surface. (3) The results of stress distribution obtained from 2D dynamic analysis of the slope using QUAKE/W software, together with the laboratory measured soil parameters and earthquake records of the area. It was assumed that the deep crack in the slope under investigation was generated by earthquakes. A good agreement was obtained when comparing the location and the orientation of the cracks detected by Method-1 and Method-2. However, the simulated cracks in Method-3 were not in good agreement with the output of Method-1 and Method-2. This may have been due to the material properties used and the assumptions made, for the analysis. From Method-1 and Method-2, it can be concluded that the ERT method can be used to detect the location and orientation of a crack in a soil slope, when the ERT is conducted in very dry or very wet soil conditions. In this study, the cracks detected by the ERT were used for stability analysis of the slope. The stability of the slope was determined using the factor of safety (FOS) of a critical slip surface obtained by SLOPE/W using the limit equilibrium method. Pore-water pressure values for the stability analysis were obtained by coupling the transient seepage analysis of the slope using finite element based software, called SEEP/W. A parametric study conducted on the stability of an investigated slope revealed that the existence of deep cracks and their location in the soil slope are critical for its stability. The following two steps are proposed to predict the rain-induced instability of a residual soil slope with cracks. (a) Step-1: The transient stability analysis of the slope is conducted from the date of the investigation (initial conditions are based on the investigation) to the preferred date (current date), using measured rainfall data. Then, the stability analyses are continued for the next 12 months using the predicted annual rainfall that will be based on the previous five years rainfall data for the area. (b) Step-2: The stability of the slope is calculated in real-time using real-time measured rainfall. In this calculation, rainfall is predicted for the next hour or 24 hours and the stability of the slope is calculated one hour or 24 hours in advance using real time rainfall data. If Step-1 analysis shows critical stability for the forthcoming year, it is recommended that Step-2 be used for more accurate warning against the future failure of the slope. In this research, the results of the application of the Step-1 on an investigated slope (Slope-1) showed that its stability was not approaching a critical value for year 2012 (until 31st December 2012) and therefore, the application of Step-2 was not necessary for the year 2012. A case study (Slope-2) was used to verify the applicability of the complete proposed predictive method. A landslide event at Slope-2 occurred on 31st October 2010. The transient seepage and stability analyses of the slope using data obtained from field tests such as Bore-hole, SPT, ERT and Laboratory tests, were conducted on 12th June 2010 following the Step-1 and found that the slope in critical condition on that current date. It was then showing that the application of the Step-2 could have predicted this failure by giving sufficient warning time.

Hydraulic instability onset detection in Kaplan turbines by monitoring shaft vibrations

Design of hydraulic turbines has often to deal with hydraulic instability. It is well-known that Francis and Kaplan types present hydraulic instability in their design power range. Even if modern CFD tools may help to define these dangerous operating conditions and optimize runner design, hydraulic instabilities may fortuitously arise during the turbine life and should be timely detected in order to assure a long-lasting operating life. In a previous paper, the authors have considered the phenomenon of helical vortex rope, which happens at low flow rates when a swirling flow, in the draft tube conical inlet, occupies a large portion of the inlet. In this condition, a strong helical vortex rope appears. The vortex rope causes mechanical effects on the runner, on the whole turbine and on the draft tube, which may eventually produce severe damages on the turbine unit and whose most evident symptoms are vibrations. The authors have already shown that vibration analysis is suitable for detecting vortex rope onset, thanks to an experimental test campaign performed during the commissioning of a 23 MW Kaplan hydraulic turbine unit. In this paper, the authors propose a sophisticated data driven approach to detect vortex rope onset at different power load, based on the analysis of the vibration signals in the order domain and introducing the so-called "residual order spectrogram", i.e. an order-rotation representation of the vibration signal. Some experimental test runs are presented and the possibility to detect instability onset, especially in real-time, is discussed.

Instability of the cellular lipidome with age

The human lens nucleus is formed in utero, and from birth onwards, there appears to be no significant turnover of intracellular proteins or membrane components. Since, in adults, this region also lacks active enzymes, it offers the opportunity to examine the intrinsic stability of macromolecules under physiological conditions. Fifty seven human lenses, ranging in age from 12 to 82 years, were dissected into nucleus and cortex, and the nuclear lipids analyzed by electrospray ionization tandem mass spectrometry. In the first four decades of life, glycerophospholipids (with the exception of lysophosphatidylethanolamines) declined rapidly, such that by age 40, their content became negligible. In contrast the level of ceramides and dihydroceramides, which were undetectable prior to age 30, increased approximately 100-fold. The concentration of sphingomyelins and dihydrosphingomyelins remained unchanged over the whole life span. As a consequence of this marked alteration in composition, the properties of fiber cell membranes in the centre of young lenses are likely to be very different from those in older lenses. Interestingly, the identification of age 40 years as a time of transition in the lipid composition of the nucleus coincides with previously reported macroscopic changes in lens properties (e.g., a massive age-related increase in lens stiffness) and related pathologies such as presbyopia. The underlying reasons for the dramatic change in the lipid profile of the human lens with age are not known, but are most likely linked to the stability of some membrane lipids in a physiological environment.

Executive function and postural instability in people with Parkinson’s disease

The specific aspects of cognition contributing to balance and gait have not been clarified in people with Parkinson’s disease (PD). Twenty PD participants and twenty age- and gender-matched healthy controls were assessed on cognition and clinical mobility tests. General cognition was assessed with the Mini Mental State Exam and the Addenbrooke’s Cognitive Exam. Executive function was evaluated using the Trail Making Tests (TMT-A and TMT-B) and a computerized cognitive battery which included a series of choice reaction time (CRT) tests. Clinical gait and balance measures included the Tinetti, Timed Up & Go, Berg Balance and Functional Reach tests. PD participants performed significantly worse than the controls on the tests of cognitive and executive function, balance and gait. PD participants took longer on Trail Making Tests, CRT-Location and CRT-Colour (inhibition response). Furthermore, executive function, particularly longer times on CRT-Distracter and greater errors on the TMT-B were associated with worse balance and gait performance in the PD group. Measures of general cognition were not associated with balance and gait measures in either group. For PD participants, attention and executive function were impaired. Components of executive function, particularly those involving inhibition response and distracters, were associated with poorer balance and gait performance in PD.

On the realization of the current-driven dust ion-acoustic instability

The current-driven dust ion-acoustic instability in a collisional dusty plasma is studied. The effects of dust-charge variation, electron and ion capture by the dust grains, as well as various dissipative mechanisms leading to the changes of the particles momenta, are taken into account. It is shown that the threshold for the excitation of the dust ion-acoustic waves can be high because of the large dissipation rate induced by the dusts. © 1999 American Institute of Physics.

A loop cancellation based active damping solution for constant power instability in vehicular power systems

In recent years, electric propulsion systems have increasingly been used in land, sea and air vehicles. The vehicular power systems are usually loaded with tightly regulated power electronic converters which tend to draw constant power. Since the constant power loads (CPLs) impose negative incremental resistance characteristics on the feeder system, they pose a potential threat to the stability of vehicular power systems. This effect becomes more significant in the presence of distribution lines between source and load in large vehicular power systems such as electric ships and more electric aircrafts. System transients such as sudden drop of converter side loads or increase of constant power requirement can cause complete system instability. Most of the existing research work focuses on the modeling and stabilization of DC vehicular power systems with CPLs. Only a few solutions are proposed to stabilize AC vehicular power systems with non-negligible distribution lines and CPLs. Therefore, this paper proposes a novel loop cancellation technique to eliminate constant power instability in AC vehicular power systems with a theoretically unbounded system stability region. Analysis is carried out on system stability with the proposed method and simulation results are presented to validate its effectiveness.

Virtual resistance based active damping solution for constant power instability in AC microgrids

With ever-increasing share of power electronic loads constant power instability is becoming a significant issue in microgrids, especially when they operate in the islanding mode. Transient conditions like resistive load-shedding or sudden increase of constant power loads (CPL) might destabilize the whole system. Modeling and stability analysis of AC microgrids with CPLs have already been discussed in literature. However, no effective solutions are provided to stabilize this kind of system. Therefore, this paper proposes a virtual resistance based active damping method to eliminate constant power instability in AC microgrids. Advantages and limitations of the proposed method are also discussed in detail. Simulation results are presented to validate the proposed active damping solution.

What is the apparent angle of a Kelvin ship wave pattern?

While the half-angle which encloses a Kelvin ship wave pattern is commonly accepted to be 19.47 degrees, recent observations and calculations for sufficiently fast-moving ships suggest that the apparent wake angle decreases with ship speed. One explanation for this decrease in angle relies on the assumption that a ship cannot generate wavelengths much greater than its hull length. An alternative interpretation is that the wave pattern that is observed in practice is defined by the location of the highest peaks; for wakes created by sufficiently fast-moving objects, these highest peaks no longer lie on the outermost divergent waves, resulting in a smaller apparent angle. In this paper, we focus on the problems of free surface flow past a single submerged point source and past a submerged source doublet. In the linear version of these problems, we measure the apparent wake angle formed by the highest peaks, and observe the following three regimes: a small Froude number pattern, in which the divergent waves are not visible; standard wave patterns for which the maximum peaks occur on the outermost divergent waves; and a third regime in which the highest peaks form a V-shape with an angle much less than the Kelvin angle. For nonlinear flows, we demonstrate that nonlinearity has the effect of increasing the apparent wake angle so that some highly nonlinear solutions have apparent wake angles that are greater than Kelvin's angle. For large Froude numbers, the effect on apparent wake angle can be more dramatic, with the possibility of strong nonlinearity shifting the wave pattern from the third regime to the second. We expect our nonlinear results will translate to other more complicated flow configurations, such as flow due to a steadily moving closed body such as a submarine.

BRCA1 deficiency exacerbates estrogen-induced DNA damage and genomic instability

Germline mutations in BRCA1 predispose carriers to a high incidence of breast and ovarian cancers. BRCA1 functions to maintain genomic stability through critical roles in DNA repair, cell cycle arrest and transcriptional control. A major question has been why BRCA1 loss or mutation leads to tumors mainly in estrogen-regulated tissues, given that BRCA1 has essential functions in all cell types. Here we report that estrogen and estrogen metabolites can cause DNA double strand breaks (DSB) in estrogen receptor-α negative breast cells and that BRCA1 is required to repair these DSBs to prevent metabolite-induced genomic instability. We found that BRCA1 also regulates estrogen metabolism and metabolite-mediated DNA damage by repressing the transcription of estrogen-metabolising enzymes, such as CYP1A1, in breast cells. Lastly, we used a knock-in human cell model with a heterozygous BRCA1 pathogenic mutation to show how BRCA1 haploinsufficiency affects these processes. Our findings provide pivotal new insights into why BRCA1 mutation drives the formation of tumours in estrogen-regulated tissues, despite the general role of BRCA1 in DNA repair in all cell types.

Public space design of knowledge and innovation spaces: Learnings from Kelvin Grove Urban Village, Brisbane

The era of knowledge-based urban development has led to an unprecedented increase in mobility of people and the subsequent growth in new typologies of agglomerated enclaves of knowledge such as knowledge and innovation spaces. Within this context, a new role has been assigned to contemporary public spaces to attract and retain the mobile knowledge workforce by creating a sense of place. This paper investigates place making in the globalized knowledge economy, which develops a sense of permanence spatio-temporally to knowledge workers displaying a set of particular characteristics and simultaneously is process-dependent getting developed by the internal and external flows and contributing substantially in the development of the broader context it stands in relation with. The paper reviews the literature and highlights observations from Kelvin Grove Urban Village, located in Australia’s new world city Brisbane, to understand the application of urban design as a vehicle to create and sustain place making in knowledge and innovation spaces. This research seeks to analyze the modified permeable typology of public spaces that makes knowledge and innovation spaces more viable and adaptive as per the changing needs of the contemporary globalized knowledge society.

A germline polymorphism of thymine DNA glycosylase induces genomic instability and cellular transformation

Thymine DNA glycosylase (TDG) functions in base excision repair, a DNA repair pathway that acts in a lesion-specific manner to correct individual damaged or altered bases. TDG preferentially catalyzes the removal of thymine and uracil paired with guanine, and is also active on 5-fluorouracil (5-FU) paired with adenine or guanine. The rs4135113 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) of TDG is found in 10% of the global population. This coding SNP results in the alteration of Gly199 to Ser. Gly199 is part of a loop responsible for stabilizing the flipped abasic nucleotide in the active site pocket. Biochemical analyses indicate that G199S exhibits tighter binding to both its substrate and abasic product. The persistent accumulation of abasic sites in cells expressing G199S leads to the induction of double-strand breaks (DSBs). Cells expressing the G199S variant also activate a DNA damage response. When expressed in cells, G199S induces genomic instability and cellular transformation. Together, these results suggest that individuals harboring the G199S variant may have increased risk for developing cancer.

Dynamic analysis of small signal voltage instability decoupled from angle instability

This paper presents a methodology for dynamic analysis of short term small signal voltage instability in a multi-machine power system. The formulation of the problem is done by decoupling the angle instability from the voltage instability. The method is based on the incremental reactive current flow network (IRCFN), where the incremental reactive current injection at each bus is related to the incremental voltage magnitude at all the buses. Small signal stability using the eigenvalue analysis is illustrated utilizing a single-machine load bus (SMLB) and three-machine system examples. The role of a static var compensator (SVC) at the load bus is also examined.

Instability of laminated composite thin-walled open-section beams

Instability of thin-walled open-section laminated composite beams is studied using the finite element method. A two-noded, 8 df per node thin-walled open-section laminated composite beam finite element has been used. The displacements of the element reference axis are expressed in terms of one-dimensional first order Hermite interpolation polynomials, and line member assumptions are invoked in formulation of the elastic stiffness matrix and geometric stiffness matrix. The nonlinear expressions for the strains occurring in thin-walled open-section beams, when subjected to axial, flexural and torsional loads, are incorporated in a general instability analysis. Several problems for which continuum solutions (exact/approximate) are possible have been solved in order to evaluate the performance of finite element. Next its applicability is demonstrated by predicting the buckling loads for the following problems of laminated composites: (i) two layer (45°/−45°) composite Z section cantilever beam and (ii) three layer (0°/45°/0°) composite Z section cantilever beam.