Transport energy demand: techno-economic modelling and scenarios for Irish climate policy

The case for energy policy modelling is strong in Ireland, where stringent EU climate targets are projected to be overshot by 2015. Policy targets aiming to deliver greenhouse gas and renewable energy targets have been made, but it is unclear what savings are to be achieved and from which sectors. Concurrently, the growth of personal mobility has caused an astonishing increase in CO2 emissions from private cars in Ireland, a 37% rise between 2000 and 2008, and while there have been improvements in the efficiency of car technology, there was no decrease in the energy intensity of the car fleet in the same period. This thesis increases the capacity for evidenced-based policymaking in Ireland by developing techno-economic transport energy models and using them to analyse historical trends and to project possible future scenarios. A central focus of this thesis is to understand the effect of the car fleet‘s evolving technical characteristics on energy demand. A car stock model is developed to analyse this question from three angles: Firstly, analysis of car registration and activity data between 2000 and 2008 examines the trends which brought about the surge in energy demand. Secondly, the car stock is modelled into the future and is used to populate a baseline “no new policy” scenario, looking at the impact of recent (2008-2011) policy and purchasing developments on projected energy demand and emissions. Thirdly, a range of technology efficiency, fuel switching and behavioural scenarios are developed up to 2025 in order to indicate the emissions abatement and renewable energy penetration potential from alternative policy packages. In particular, an ambitious car fleet electrification target for Ireland is examined. The car stock model‘s functionality is extended by linking it with other models: LEAP-Ireland, a bottom-up energy demand model for all energy sectors in the country; Irish TIMES, a linear optimisation energy system model; and COPERT, a pollution model. The methodology is also adapted to analyse trends in freight energy demand in a similar way. Finally, this thesis addresses the gap in the representation of travel behaviour in linear energy systems models. A novel methodology is developed and case studies for Ireland and California are presented using the TIMES model. Transport Energy

The musical enculturation of Irish traditional musicians: An ethnographic study of learning processes

The enculturation of Irish traditional musicians involves informal, non-formal, and sometimes formal learning processes in a number of different settings, including traditional music sessions, workshops, festivals, and classes. Irish traditional musicians also learn directly from family, peers, and mentors and by using various forms of technology. Each experience contributes to the enculturation process in meaningful and complementary ways. The ethnographic research discussed in this dissertation suggests that within Irish traditional music culture, enculturation occurs most effectively when learners experience a multitude of learning practices. A variety of experiences insures that novices receive multiple opportunities for engagement and learning. If a learner finds one learning practice ineffective, there are other avenues of enculturation. This thesis explores the musical enculturation of Irish traditional musicians. It focuses on the process of becoming a musician by drawing on methodologies and theories from ethnomusicology, education, and Irish traditional music studies. Data was gathered through multiple ethnographic methodologies. Fieldwork based on participant-observation was carried out in a variety of learning contexts, including traditional music sessions, festivals, workshops, and weekly classes. Additionally, interviews with twenty accomplished Irish traditional musicians provide diverse narratives and firsthand insight into musical development and enculturation. These and other methodologies are discussed in Chapter 1. The three main chapters of the thesis explore various common learning experiences. Chapter 2 explores how Irish traditional musicians learn during social and musical interactions between peers, mentors, and family members, and focuses on live music-making which occurs in private homes, sessions, and concerts. These informal and non-formal learning experiences primarily take place outside of organizations and institutions. The interview data suggests these learning experiences are perhaps the most pervasive and influential in terms of musical enculturation. Chapter 3 discusses learning experience in more organized settings, such as traditional music classes, workshops, summer schools, and festivals. The role of organizations such as Comhaltas Ceoltóirí Éireann and pipers’ clubs are discussed from the point of view of the learner. Many of the learning experiences explored in this chapter are informal, non-formal, and sometimes formal in nature, depending on the philosophy of the organization, institution, and individual teacher. The interview data and field observations indicate that learning in these contexts is common and plays a significant role in enculturation, particularly for traditional musicians who were born during and after the 1970s. Chapter 4 explores the ways Irish traditional musicians use technology, including written sources, phonography, videography, websites, and emerging technologies, during the enculturation process. Each type of technology presents different educational implications, and traditional musicians use these technologies in diverse ways and some more than others. For this, and other reasons, technology plays a complex role during the process of musical enculturation. Drawing on themes which emerge during Chapter 2, 3, and 4, the final chapter of this dissertation explores overarching patterns of enculturation within Irish traditional music culture. This ethnographic work suggests that longevity of participation and engagement in multiple learning and performance opportunities foster the enculturation of Irish traditional musicians. Through numerous and prolonged participation in music-making, novices become accustomed to and learn musical, social, and cultural behaviours. The final chapter also explores interconnections between learning experiences and also proposes directions for future research.

Investigation of the genetic susceptibility to osteoporosis in the Irish population

Osteoporosis is a complex skeletal disorder characterized by compromised bone strength. Variation in bone mineral density (BMD) is a contributing factor. The aim of this research as to select informative single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in potential candidate genes from loci suggestively linked to BMD variation for fine mapping. The gene regulated by oestrogen in breast cancer 1 (GREB1), located at 2p25.1, was selected. GREB1 transcription is initiated early in the oestrogen receptor alpha regulated pathway. There was significant association between GREB1_03 and BMD variation at the lumbar spine and femoral neck (FN) in the discovery cohort. Significant association was observed between GREB1_04 and FN BMD in the replication cohort. The development and differentiation enhancing factor 2, the integrin cytoplasmic domain associated protein 1 and A-disintegrin and metalloprotease 17 were selected due to their respective roles in cell mobility and adhesion. There was no linkage or association observed between the Chr2 cluster SNPs and BMD. Two factors in bone remodelling are the attraction of bone cell precursors and endocrine regulation of the process, primarily through the action of parathyroid hormone (PTH). The C-C chemokine receptor type 3 (CCR3) encodes a CC chemokine receptor expressed in osteoclast precursors. The PTH receptor type 1 (PTHR1) encodes a G-protein coupled receptor for PTH. Association was observed between CCR3 haplotypes and BMD variation at the FN. There was no linkage or association observed between PTHR1 SNPs and BMD variation. Population genetic studies with complex phenotypes endeavour to elucidate the traits genetic architecture. This study presents evidence of association between GREB1 and BMD variation and as such, introduces GREB1 as a novel gene target for osteoporosis genetics studies. It affirms that common genomic variants in PTHR1 are not associated with BMD variation in Caucasians and supports the evidence that CCR3 may be contributing to BMD variation

Invertebrate diversity in Irish and British forests

Ireland and Britain were once covered in natural forest, but extensive anthropogenic deforestation reduced forest cover to less than 1% and 5 %, respectively, by the beginning of the 20th century. Large-scale afforestation has since increased the level of forest cover to 11% in Ireland and 12% in Britain, with the majority of planted forests comprising small monoculture plantations, many of which are of non - native conifer tree species. At present the forest cover of Ireland and Britain generally consists of small areas of remnant semi-natural woodland and pockets of these plantation forests within a predominantly agricultural landscape. Invertebrates comprise a large proportion of the biodiversity found within forested habitats. In particular, spiders and carabid beetles play an important role in food webs as both predators and prey and respond to small-scale changes in habitat structure, meaning they are particularly sensitive to forest management. Hoverflies play an important role in control and pollination and have been successfully used as indicators of habitat disturbance and quality. This research addressed a number of topics pertinent to the forest types present in the contemporary Irish and British landscapes and aimed to investigate the invertebrate diversity of these forests. Spiders and carabid beetles were sampled using pitfall trapping and hoverflies were sampled using Malaise net trapping. Topics included the impacts of afforestation, the importance of open space, the choice of tree species, and the use of indicators for biodiversity assessment, as well as rare native woodlands and the effect of grazing on invertebrate diversity. The results are discussed and evidence-based recommendations are made for forest policy and management to protect and enhance invertebrate biodiversity in order to promote sustainable forest management in Ireland and Britain.

The ways in which new public management ideas impact upon the administrative culture of 'street-level' bureaucrats and professionals working within Irish social policy

The conventional meaning of culture is ‘widely shared and strongly held values’ of a particular group or society (Bradley and Parker, 2006: 89). Culture is not a rigid concept; it can be influenced or altered by new ideas or forces. This research examines the ways in which one set of ideas in particular, that is, those associated with New Public Management, have impacted upon the administrative culture of 'street-level' bureaucrats and professionals within Irish social policy. Lipsky (1980: 3) defined 'street-level' bureaucrats as ‘public service workers who interact directly with citizens in the course of their jobs, and who have substantial discretion in the execution of their work’. Utilising the Competing Values Framework (CVF) in the analysis of eighty three semi-structured interviews with 'street-level' bureaucrats and professionals, an evaluation is made as to the impact of NPM ideas on both visible and invisible aspects of administrative culture. Overall, the influence of NPM is confined to superficial aspects of administrative culture such as; increased flexibility in working hours and to some degree job contracts; increased time commitment; and a customer service focus. However, the extent of these changes varies depending on policy sector and occupational group. Aspects of consensual and hierarchical cultures remain firmly in place. These coincide with features of developmental and market cultures. Contrary to the view that members of hierarchical and consensual culture would pose resistance to change, this research clearly illustrates that a very large appetite for change exists in the attitudes of 'street-level' bureaucrats and professionals within Irish social policy, with many of them suggesting changes that correspond to NPM ideas. This study demonstrates the relevance of employing the CVF model as it is clear that administrative culture is very much a dynamic system of competing and co-existing cultures.

Investigation of stress and burnout in Irish second-level teachers: A mixed-methods approach.

This study explores the experiences of stress and burnout in Irish second level teachers and examines the contribution of a number of individual, environmental and health factors in burnout development. As no such study has previously been carried out with this sample, a mixed-methods approach was adopted in order to comprehensively investigate the subject matter. Teaching has consistently been identified as a particularly stressful occupation and research investigating its development is of great importance in developing measures to address the problem. The first phase of study involved the use of focus groups conducted with a total of 20 second-level teachers from 11 different schools in the greater Cork city area. Findings suggest that teachers experience a variety of stressors – in class, in the staff room and outside of school. The second phase of study employed a survey to examine the factors associated with burnout. Analysis of 192 responses suggested that burnout results from a combination of demographic, personality, environmental and coping factors. Burnout was also found to be associated with a number of physical symptoms, particularly trouble sleeping and fatigue. Findings suggest that interventions designed to reduce burnout must reflect the complexity of the problem and its development. Based on the research findings, interventions that combine individual and organisational approaches should provide the optimal chance of effectively tackling burnout.

Home, family and society: women of the Irish landed class, 1860-1914. A Munster case study

The thesis analyses the roles and experiences of female members of the Irish landed class (wives, sisters and daughters of gentry and aristocratic landlords with estates over 1,000 acres) using primary personal material generated by twelve sample families over an important period of decline for the class, and growing rights for women. Notably, it analyses the experiences of relatively unknown married and unmarried women, something previously untried in Irish historiography. It demonstrates that women’s roles were more significant than has been assumed in the existing literature, and leads to a more rounded understanding of the entire class. Four chapters focus on themes which emerge from the sources used and which deal with their roles both inside and outside the home. These chapters argue that: Married and unmarried women were more closely bound to the priorities of their class than their sex, and prioritised male-centred values of family and estate. Male and female duties on the property overlapped, as marriage relationships were more equal than the legislation of the time would suggest. London was the cultural centre for this class. Due to close familial links with Britain (60% of sample daughters married English men) their self-perception was British or English, as well as Irish. With the self-confidence of their class, these women enjoyed cultural and political activities and movements outside the home (sport, travel, fashion, art, writing, philanthropy, (anti-)suffrage, and politics). Far from being pawns in arranged marriages, women were deeply conscious of their marriage decisions and chose socially, financially and personally compatible husbands; they also looked for sexual satisfaction. Childbirth sometimes caused lasting health problems, but pregnancy did not confine wealthy women to an invalid state. In opposition to the stereotypical distant aristocratic mother, these women breastfed their children, and were involved mothers. However, motherhood was not permitted to impinge on the more pressing role of wife

Between the worlds: otherworld women as intermediaries in early Irish literature

This thesis examines the ways in which Otherworldly women acted as intermediaries between the Otherworld and mortal world in early Irish literature. First it establishes the position of women in early Ireland so that appropriate comparisons can be made between mortal and Otherworld women throughout the thesis. Also, it defines what is meant by the ‘Otherworld’ and its relevence to the early Irish. It then goes on to discuss the differing goals of various intermediaries in early Irish texts, and in what manner they interact with mortals. It briefly looks at how Otherworld male intermediaries are treated differently in the literature, and why early authors might have used women in these roles as often as they did.

Aspects of the biology of Mya arenaria and Ensis spp. (Mollusca; Bivalvia) in the Irish Sea and adjacent areas

This study was undertaken to investigate the general biology, including the reproductive cycle and health status, of two clam taxa in Irish waters, with particular reference to the Irish Sea area. Monthly samples of the soft shell clam, Mya arenaria, were collected from Bannow Bay, Co. Wexford, Ireland, for sixteen months, and of the razor clam, Ensis spp. from the Skerries region (Irish Sea) between June 2010 and September 2011. In 2010, M. arenaria in Bannow Bay matured over the summer months, with both sexes either ripe or spawning by August. The gonads of both sexes of E. siliqua developed over autumn and winter 2010, with the first spawning individuals being recorded in January 2011. Two unusually cold winters, followed by a warmer than average spring, appear to have affected M. arenaria and E. siliqua gametogenesis at these sites. It was noted that wet weight of E. siliqua dropped significantly in the summer of both 2010 and 2011, after spawning, which may impact on the economic viability of fishing during this period. Additional samples of M. arenaria were collected at Flaxfort (Ireland), and Ensis spp. at Oxwich (Wales), and the pathology of all clams was examined using both histological and molecular methods. No pathogenic conditions were observed in M. arenaria while Prokaryote inclusions, trematode parasites, Nematopsis spp. and inflammatory pathologies were observed at low incidences in razor clams from Ireland but not from Wales; the first time these conditions have been reported in Ensis spp. in northern European waters. Mya arenaria from sites in Europe and eastern and western North America were investigated for genetic variation using both mitochondrial (cytochrome oxidase I (COI) and 16S ribosomal RNA genes) and nuclear markers (10 microsatellite loci). Both mitochondrial CO1 and all nuclear markers showed reduced levels of variation in certain European samples, with significant differences in haplotype and allelic composition between most samples, particularly those from the two different continents, but with the same common haplotypes or alleles throughout the range. The appearance of certain unique rare haplotypes and microsatellite alleles in the European samples suggest a complicated origin involving North American colonization but also possible southern European Pleistocene refugia. Specimens of Ensis spp. were obtained from five coastal areas around Ireland and Wales and species-specific PCR primers were used to amplify the internal transcribed spacer region 1 (ITS1) and the mitochondrial DNA CO1 gene and all but 15 razor clams were identified as Ensis siliqua. Future investigations should focus on continued monitoring of reproductive biology and pathology of the two clam taxa (in particular, to assess the influence of environmental change), and on genetics of southern European M. arenaria and sequencing the CO1 gene in Ensis individuals to clarify species identity

Bottom-up modelling of energy demand and technical energy savings potential in the Irish residential sector

The International Energy Agency has repeatedly identified increased end-use energy efficiency as the quickest, least costly method of green house gas mitigation, most recently in the 2012 World Energy Outlook, and urges all governing bodies to increase efforts to promote energy efficiency policies and technologies. The residential sector is recognised as a major potential source of cost effective energy efficiency gains. Within the EU this relative importance can be seen from a review of the National Energy Efficiency Action Plans (NEEAP) submitted by member states, which in all cases place a large emphasis on the residential sector. This is particularly true for Ireland whose residential sector has historically had higher energy consumption and CO2 emissions than the EU average and whose first NEEAP targeted 44% of the energy savings to be achieved in 2020 from this sector. This thesis develops a bottom-up engineering archetype modelling approach to analyse the Irish residential sector and to estimate the technical energy savings potential of a number of policy measures. First, a model of space and water heating energy demand for new dwellings is built and used to estimate the technical energy savings potential due to the introduction of the 2008 and 2010 changes to part L of the building regulations governing energy efficiency in new dwellings. Next, the author makes use of a valuable new dataset of Building Energy Rating (BER) survey results to first characterise the highly heterogeneous stock of existing dwellings, and then to estimate the technical energy savings potential of an ambitious national retrofit programme targeting up to 1 million residential dwellings. This thesis also presents work carried out by the author as part of a collaboration to produce a bottom-up, multi-sector LEAP model for Ireland. Overall this work highlights the challenges faced in successfully implementing both sets of policy measures. It points to the wide potential range of final savings possible from particular policy measures and the resulting high degree of uncertainty as to whether particular targets will be met and identifies the key factors on which the success of these policies will depend. It makes recommendations on further modelling work and on the improvements necessary in the data available to researchers and policy makers alike in order to develop increasingly sophisticated residential energy demand models and better inform policy.

The ELDERMET biobank: Isolation and characterization of the intestinal microbiota from elderly Irish subjects

The human gastrointestinal (GI) tract is colonized by a dense and diverse bacterial community, the commensal microbiota, which plays an important role in the overall health of individuals. This microbiota is relatively stable throughout adult life, but may fluctuate over time with aging and disease. The adaptation of the gut microbiota to our changing life-style is probably the reason for the large inter-individual variation observed among different people. Since the gut microbiota plays an essential role in interactions with host metabolism, it is of utmost importance to explore this relationship. The elderly intestinal microbiota has been the subject of a number of studies in recent years. The results presented in this thesis have further contributed to the expansion of knowledge related to gut microbiota research highlighting the combined effect of culture based and molecular methods as powerful tools for understanding the true impact of microbes. The degree of correlation between measurements from both methods suggested that a single method is capable of profiling intestinal Bifidobacterium spp., Lactobacillus spp. and Enterobacteriaceae populations. Bacteriocins have shown great promise as alternatives to traditional antibiotics. In this respect, the isolation and characterisation of bacteriocinogenic strains are important due to growing evidence indicating bacteriocin production as a potential probiotic trait by virtue of strain dominance and/or pathogen inhibition in the mammalian intestine. The selection pressure applied on the bacterial population during antibiotic usage is the driving force for the emergence of antibiotic resistant bacteria. Identification of antibiotic resistant isolates opens up the possibility of using such probiotics to offset the problems caused by antibiotics to the gut microbiota and to improve the intestinal microbial environment. Future work is required to explore the culture collection housing thousands of bacterial isolates as a valuable source of potential probiotics for use for the elderly Irish community.

Assessment of dietary background exposure of the Irish adult population to dioxins and PCBs particularly taking into account additional exposure due to the 2008 Irish dioxin food contamination incident

Irish monitoring data on PCDD/Fs, DL-PCBs and Marker PCBs were collated and combined with Irish Adult Food Consumption Data, to estimate dietary background exposure of Irish adults to dioxins and PCBs. Furthermore, all available information on the 2008 Irish pork dioxin food contamination incident was collated and analysed with a view to evaluate any potential impact the incident may have had on general dioxin and PCB background exposure levels estimated for the adult population in Ireland. The average upperbound daily intake of Irish adults to dioxins Total WHO TEQ (2005) (PCDD/Fs & DLPCBs) from environmental background contamination, was estimated at 0.3 pg/kg bw/d and at the 95th percentile at 1 pg/kg bw/d. The average upperbound daily intake of Irish adults to the sum of 6 Marker PCBs from environmental background contamination ubiquitous in the environment was estimated at 1.6 ng/kg bw/d and at the 95th percentile at 6.8 ng/kg bw/d. Dietary background exposure estimates for both dioxins and PCBs indicate that the Irish adult population has exposures below the European average, a finding which is also supported by the levels detected in breast milk of Irish mothers. Exposure levels are below health based guidance values and/or Body Burdens associated with the TWI (for dioxins) or associated with a NOAEL (for PCBs). Given the current toxicological knowledge, based on biomarker data and estimated dietary exposure, general background exposure of the Irish adult population to dioxins and PCBs is of no human health concern. In 2008, a porcine fat sample taken as part of the national residues monitoring programme led to the detection of a major feed contamination incidence in the Republic of Ireland. The source of the contamination was traced back to the use of contaminated oil in a direct-drying feed operation system. Congener profiles in animal fat and feed samples showed a high level of consistency and pinpointed the likely source of fuel contamination to be a highly chlorinated commercial PCB mixture. To estimate additional exposure to dioxins and PCBs due to the contamination of pig and cattle herds, collection and a systematic review of all data associated with the contamination incident was conducted. A model was devised that took into account the proportion of contaminated product reaching the final consumer during the 90 day contamination incident window. For a 90 day period, the total additional exposure to Total TEQ (PCDD/F &DL-PCB) WHO (2005) amounted to 407 pg/kg bw/90d at the 95th percentile and 1911 pg/kg bw/90d at the 99th percentile. Exposure estimates derived for both dioxins and PCBs showed that the Body Burden of the general population remained largely unaffected by the contamination incident and approximately 10 % of the adult population in Ireland was exposed to elevated levels of dioxins and PCBs. Whilst people in this 10 % cohort experienced quite a significant additional load to the existing body burden, the estimated exposure values do not indicate approximation of body burdens associated with adverse health effects, based on current knowledge. The exposure period was also limited in time to approximately 3 months, following the FSAI recall of contaminated meat immediately on detection of the contamination. A follow up breast milk study on Irish first time mothers conducted in 2009/2010 did not show any increase in concentrations compared to the study conducted in 2002. The latter supports the conclusion that the majority of the Irish adult population was not affected by the contamination incident.

Form-focused instruction in Irish-medium immersion education: a critical examination of teachers' perspectives and practices. A small-scale qualitative case study

It has been suggested that the less than optimal levels of students’ immersion language “persist in part because immersion teachers lack systematic approaches for integrating language into their content instruction” (Tedick, Christian and Fortune, 2011, p.7). I argue that our current lack of knowledge regarding what immersion teachers think, know and believe and what immersion teachers’ actual ‘lived’ experiences are in relation to form-focused instruction (FFI) prevents us from fully understanding the key issues at the core of experiential immersion pedagogy and form-focused integration. FFI refers to “any planned or incidental instructional activity that is intended to induce language learners to pay attention to linguistic form” (Ellis, 2001b, p.1). The central aim of this research study is to critically examine the perspectives and practices of Irish-medium immersion (IMI) teachers in relation to FFI. The study ‘taps’ into the lived experiences of three IMI teachers in three different IMI school contexts and explores FFI from a classroom-based, teacher-informed perspective. Philosophical underpinnings of the interpretive paradigm and critical hermeneutical principles inform and guide the study. A multi-case study approach was adopted and data was gathered through classroom observation, video-stimulated recall and semistructured interviews. Findings revealed that the journey of ‘becoming’ an IMI teacher is shaped by a vast array of intricate variables. IMI teacher identity, implicit theories, stated beliefs, educational biographies and experiences, IMI school cultures and contexts as well as teacher knowledge and competence impacted on IMI teachers’ FFI perspectives and practices. An IMI content teacher identity reflected the teachers’ priorities as shaped by pedagogical challenges and their educational backgrounds. While research participants had clearly defined instructional beliefs and goals, their roadmap of how to actually accomplish these goals was far from clear. IMI teachers described the multitude of choices and pedagogical dilemmas they faced in integrating FFI into experiential pedagogy. Significant gaps in IMI teachers’ declarative knowledge about and competence in the immersion language were also reported. This research study increases our understanding of the complexity of the processes underlying and shaping FFI pedagogy in IMI education. Innovative FFI opportunities for professional development across the continuum of teacher education are outlined, a comprehensive evaluation of IMI is called for and areas for further research are delineated.

Challengers to provisional republicanism: the official republican movement, people’s democracy and the Irish republican socialist party, 1968–98

The Provisional IRA and its political wing Sinn Féin have attracted by far the greatest scholarly interest of all the players in the Northern Irish conflict. This emphasis is perfectly legitimate, given the centrality of the Provos to so many turning-points in the conflict, from the collapse of Stormont in the early 1970s to the hunger strikes of the following decade and the ceasefires which were followed by the Belfast Agreement. My project, however, looks at political groups that at one time or another challenged the Provos for leadership of the militant, anti-state constituency in Northern Ireland (chiefly based in the Catholic working class). Although never as large or influential as the Provisional republicans, groups such as the Official IRA and the Irish Republican Socialist Party sometimes had a discernible impact on the course of events which is overlooked by most studies, and often pioneered ideas and tactics that were later adopted by the Provos themselves. The idea that republicans should embrace political action and work in broad campaigning alliances was promoted by the IRSP and socialist groups such as People’s Democracy before it was taken up by Gerry Adams and his allies, while the Official IRA supported the principle of a settlement based on democratization of the Northern Irish state, which was later accepted by Sinn Féin in the form of the Belfast Agreement. The goal of my research is to provide a novel perspective on the conflict in Northern Ireland, while engaging with theoretical debates about its character.

Climate and energy scenarios for Ireland to 2050 using the Irish TIMES energy systems model

Due to growing concerns regarding the anthropogenic interference with the climate system, countries across the world are being challenged to develop effective strategies to mitigate climate change by reducing or preventing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The European Union (EU) is committed to contribute to this challenge by setting a number of climate and energy targets for the years 2020, 2030 and 2050 and then agreeing effort sharing amongst Member States. This thesis focus on one Member State, Ireland, which faces specific challenges and is not on track to meet the targets agreed to date. Before this work commenced, there were no projections of energy demand or supply for Ireland beyond 2020. This thesis uses techno-economic energy modelling instruments to address this knowledge gap. It builds and compares robust, comprehensive policy scenarios, providing a means of assessing the implications of different future energy and emissions pathways for the Irish economy, Ireland’s energy mix and the environment. A central focus of this thesis is to explore the dynamics of the energy system moving towards a low carbon economy. This thesis develops an energy systems model (the Irish TIMES model) to assess the implications of a range of energy and climate policy targets and target years. The thesis also compares the results generated from the least cost scenarios with official projections and target pathways and provides useful metrics and indications to identify key drivers and to support both policy makers and stakeholder in identifying cost optimal strategies. The thesis also extends the functionality of energy system modelling by developing and applying new methodologies to provide additional insights with a focus on particular issues that emerge from the scenario analysis carried out. Firstly, the thesis develops a methodology for soft-linking an energy systems model (Irish TIMES) with a power systems model (PLEXOS) to improve the interpretation of the electricity sector results in the energy system model. The soft-linking enables higher temporal resolution and improved characterisation of power plants and power system operation Secondly, the thesis develops a methodology for the integration of agriculture and energy systems modelling to enable coherent economy wide climate mitigation scenario analysis. This provides a very useful starting point for considering the trade-offs between the energy system and agriculture in the context of a low carbon economy and for enabling analysis of land-use competition. Three specific time scale perspectives are examined in this thesis (2020, 2030, 2050), aligning with key policy target time horizons. The results indicate that Ireland’s short term mandatory emissions reduction target will not be achieved without a significant reassessment of renewable energy policy and that the current dominant policy focus on wind-generated electricity is misplaced. In the medium to long term, the results suggest that energy efficiency is the first cost effective measure to deliver emissions reduction; biomass and biofuels are likely to be the most significant fuel source for Ireland in the context of a low carbon future prompting the need for a detailed assessment of possible implications for sustainability and competition with the agri-food sectors; significant changes are required in infrastructure to deliver deep emissions reductions (to enable the electrification of heat and transport, to accommodate carbon capture and storage facilities (CCS) and for biofuels); competition between energy and agriculture for land-use will become a key issue. The purpose of this thesis is to increase the evidence-based underpinning energy and climate policy decisions in Ireland. The methodology is replicable in other Member States.